View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1627328965772804098?s=46&t=ENwVCRKVPpl-Xed9d41teg
Aquaman (Jorge Alfaro) has arrived
Aquaman (Jorge Alfaro) has arrived
Spring Training 2023 Thread
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
My 23 year old son has one Sox jersey - Pedroia’s. He told me recently that he doesn’t need another.
Henry is avoiding Shaughnessy, Pete Abe and others this season with no spring training press conference. He gave a Q&A to the Athletic instead with curated questions:
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1627475610766286848?t=gAKjvCZVsWg6fasEP4bK6g&s=19
https://theathletic.com/4229567/2023/02/19/red-sox-owner-john-henry-qa/?source=user_shared_article
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1627475610766286848?t=gAKjvCZVsWg6fasEP4bK6g&s=19
https://theathletic.com/4229567/2023/02/19/red-sox-owner-john-henry-qa/?source=user_shared_article
First "full squad workout" (what does that even mean???) for today. First live game at the end of this week. Seems like it's been an incredibly long off-season. I'm way more bullish on the Sox this season than is probably rational, but it's lined up to be an interesting year. I think they'll actually slip in to the final Wild Card spot. I think the Yankees are way weaker than projections. Blue Jays IMO are the top team in the ALE with Houston, obviously being the top AL team. Central is still weak... even weaker than last season. I just can't wait for actual games to start up instead. One positive is that there hasn't been an argument about Mookie Betts in over a month on the board!
I'm intrigued by the roster this year too, but it is the third straight year where they are going in with questions that pretty much all need to be answered in the affirmative if they're going to have a chance of success. They had everything go right two years ago, but last year it only took a couple of things going wrong for the whole thing to blow up. Once again, it's a roster with no room for error.
Honestly they had almost everything go wrong last year, from underperformance of key players (JDM) to injuries (too countless to mention). Every team needs has question marks, and I don't disagree that the Sox have more than their competition, and every team needs a more positive response to those questions than negative. It's obvious, but it seems like a lot of fans seem to forget that other teams are counting on good health, questionable back-up players playing better than expected, and expected good players living up to their expectations. The Sox seem a little more volatile- ceiling is higher but floor is lower- than others... although that's possible close proximity bias on my part
I love this team. They have personality, they have dudes who can get on base, they have dude who can hit for power, the defense is a question mark but I think might surprise some people. The starting pitching could be fun if guys have any luck with reasonable health and the bullpen should be really good.
Also, it's the Red Sox and it's baseball and I love it.
I love every one of the rules changes, especially the pitch clock.
I am more excited for this season than I have been for the start of a season in a long time.
I agree with this in theory, but in practice the Yankees for instance had a ton of injuries last year, especially in their bullpen. Major injuries to guys having great seasons. They had the depth to withstand almost all of it. The Red Sox had a pitching staff that became almost entirely dependent upon Chris Sale being able to show up.
Thread from Jen McCaffrey on Bello’s throwing today.
View: https://twitter.com/jcmccaffrey/status/1627692712731213829?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/jcmccaffrey/status/1627692712731213829?s=20
But this supports the point. The Yankees had a roster that was built to withstand a huge injury hit to their bullpen. They had starters who were not injury question marks who could go deeper into games. The Red Sox had a starting staff that was much more dependent on its bullpen staying almost completely healthy and pitching to ceilings, and a bullpen that required the same of the starting pitching staff. It looks like it's going to be the same this year.
I feel like we've been over and over this BOS injuries in 2022 discussion, we always pay much more attention to our own team than to any of the others. FWIW (I honestly don't know), I googled to look for info on team injuries in 2022 and this was the top hit:
View: https://twitter.com/ManGamesLostMLB/status/1580694196372983808/photo/1
The one thing I am sure of is that TB had the biggest negative impact from injuries in the division last year, and yes, NY was down something like 10 relievers at one point.
View: https://twitter.com/ManGamesLostMLB/status/1580694196372983808/photo/1
The one thing I am sure of is that TB had the biggest negative impact from injuries in the division last year, and yes, NY was down something like 10 relievers at one point.
Alfaro is working with Tek in spring training
View: https://twitter.com/sean_mcadam/status/1627718417703632897?s=46&t=fGFl3kOpBU19I-AKbKsUPQ
View: https://twitter.com/sean_mcadam/status/1627718417703632897?s=46&t=fGFl3kOpBU19I-AKbKsUPQ
It isn't just about total games lost to injury, it's when they're lost as well. If two teams lose their top 4 starting pitchers to injury for 15 team games each, but one loses them one at a time while the other loses all four at once, which team is likely worse off? Is it the team that has to go through 60 games missing one of their top 4 starters or the team that goes through 15 games with none of their top 4 starters?
The first team presumably only has to turn to their #6 starter to fill in over those 60 games. The second team has to give roughly 9 starts to their #7, #8, and #9 pitchers. If the first team ends up with a better overall record, is it their superior depth that prevailed or is it fortunate timing?
I’m not sure if this is a typo or if you intended to write dude (singular), which I fear will be the case, but I laughed.
I also like the team a lot. Lots of good energy. There's breakout potential for Casas, Mondesi, Yoshida, Verdugo, Arroyo, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Crawford and even McGuire (in an insanely valuable defensive wizard a la Jose Treviño sort of way). I think we're underrating how good a bullpen Jansen/Martin/Schreiber/Houck/Joely/Bleier/Brasier is going to be.
The postseason bid is going to come down to whoever can best weather injuries.
This I most of all wholeheartedly agree with. Every February the team starts undefeated, and it’s a reminder that we’ve gotten through another winter with warm evenings and the sounds of baseball our reward.
Or something less sappy.
Great data, thanks for posting.
Hmm. I have a less of a feel for the 2023 Red Sox than I have for many prior versions, so I could very well be and hope I am wrong, but I don’t see it.
To me (and Vegas o/u) the Astros, MFY, Jays, and Rays are pretty much locks to win 85+ games. The Mariners close behind.
Then you’ve got 2 more playoff spots (1 for the AL Central winner) and one more for the Rangers, Angels, Red Sox, and whichever of the Twins, White Sox, and Guardians don’t win the Central. And sure, throw the Orioles in there I guess.
The 2023 Red Sox should be competitive with those teams, but I don’t see them beating them all out for the playoffs.
I’m not sure this fits in the thread, but ultimately I don’t feel a particular way about it — after 4 World Series in 15 years I mostly just want the team to be competitive for most of the season and some definition of “upstanding,” and I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the assorted puzzle pieces fit and they do more than compete.
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I'll tell 'ya it's great to see a little bit of life being breathed back into a few of these threads. I'm in agreement with the bolded, but I have to say that one of the things that I love most about baseball is the out of nowhere ascension that we see each season where a team or three unexpectedly contend for their division crown. Fingers crossed that the Sox can stay fairly healthy, keep us engaged and overachieve with the help of some of the guys that we hope to be the future of the franchise.
I agree with a lot of this, including the possibly unreasonable excitement about the 2023 season, but I’d say the team is more of a “lower ceiling, lower floor” squad.
Which dude do you think hits for power?
In seriousness, I agree with your intended point...
Looking at our best lineup assuming team health:
C McGuire
1B Casas
2B Story
SS Mondesi
3B Devers
LF Yoshida
CF Hernandez
RF Verdugo
DH Turner
Devers, Casas, Story, Yoshida, Mondesi, Turner and Hernandez all could be projected to hit for better than league average power at their positions. We have two other guys who should be league average offensively at their positions overall, with less emphasis on power in McGuire and Verdugo.
Unfortunately, this lineup is unlikely to happen at all this season, and only at the end if it does. The depth players will need to play up for the lineup to be great. But if they all come together and we have that best lineup playing well after we get the wild card, watch out!
In addition to those that Niastri pointed out, Duvall and Dalbec (if he figures into Sox plans in 2023) are to others with raw power that could hit HR's for this club.
a tie, between Rafael Devers and Adam Duvall, with 38. Story is the runner up with a 37 HR season.
Friendly piece of advice...take the 30 seconds to search Duvall's stats rather than post a response/question like that.
Yeah, I was sticking with the starters, but we'd have greater than average power at 4th outfield with Duvall, backup DH/1B/3B in Dalbec, MI in Arroyo/Valdez and Downs at C as well.
Many lineup permutations could be quite good with the sticks this year.
Agree with above posts that this team could/should be interesting. I’m looking forward to it.
I’ve held the belief that the front office was always targeting ‘24 to be very competitive, and the ‘21-23 teams were going to have lots of spare parts to see what sticks and with a little luck could make noise (which is why the ‘21 trade deadline ‘s lack of impact hurt, and why last years strange deadline moves were a head-scratcher).
But. At least we are not rolling out last year’s teams and “hoping for health” … I like the new faces and the possibility of multiple breakouts. Could it turn into a huge pile of garbage? Yes, but dammit, this is OUR pile. So I’ll be watching with interest.
I’ve held the belief that the front office was always targeting ‘24 to be very competitive, and the ‘21-23 teams were going to have lots of spare parts to see what sticks and with a little luck could make noise (which is why the ‘21 trade deadline ‘s lack of impact hurt, and why last years strange deadline moves were a head-scratcher).
But. At least we are not rolling out last year’s teams and “hoping for health” … I like the new faces and the possibility of multiple breakouts. Could it turn into a huge pile of garbage? Yes, but dammit, this is OUR pile. So I’ll be watching with interest.
He had 39 in '21 if for some reason you count the NLCS but not the World Series.
If I am reading this correctly, 24 teams actually had players miss more games than the Red Sox as a result of injury. This seems to contradict the argument that the Sox finished last because of excessive injuries.
I certainly don't and am not planning to try and figure it out ......... Just reading the graph as it was presented.
That is what it says, but honestly I think the data needs to be analyzed much more closely to get anything out of it. For instance, BOS signed Paxton knowing he would miss most or all of 2022, does that count as missed games? I have no idea.
I found another article from last Sept that said this:
"According to Spotrac, Red Sox players have lost 1,535 days to the injured list, seventh-most in baseball this season. They lead the league with $61.7 million in salary spent on players who missed time on the IL, with almost half of that going to Sale, who suffered three separate injuries in a year that was supposed to represent his full return from Tommy John surgery. At one point in July, 13 players — most of them key pieces of the roster, including four pitchers in the rotation — were on the injured list. The team won only eight games that month."
But also interestingly they had the least amount of injuries of any team in MLB in 2021 according to this, probably a major reason why they were able to barely sneak into the playoffs (of course kicking ass once they got there):
"the fact they had baseball’s fewest injuries last season"
"In 2021, the Red Sox lost only 981 days to injury. If not for a COVID-19 outbreak in late August and early September, they would have gotten through the entire season with only seven starting pitchers, making rotation changes (by adding in Sale and Tanner Houck) only based on performance, not because injury forced their hand."
https://theathletic.com/3581072/2022/09/13/red-sox-medical-staff-situation/
I found another article from last Sept that said this:
"According to Spotrac, Red Sox players have lost 1,535 days to the injured list, seventh-most in baseball this season. They lead the league with $61.7 million in salary spent on players who missed time on the IL, with almost half of that going to Sale, who suffered three separate injuries in a year that was supposed to represent his full return from Tommy John surgery. At one point in July, 13 players — most of them key pieces of the roster, including four pitchers in the rotation — were on the injured list. The team won only eight games that month."
But also interestingly they had the least amount of injuries of any team in MLB in 2021 according to this, probably a major reason why they were able to barely sneak into the playoffs (of course kicking ass once they got there):
"the fact they had baseball’s fewest injuries last season"
"In 2021, the Red Sox lost only 981 days to injury. If not for a COVID-19 outbreak in late August and early September, they would have gotten through the entire season with only seven starting pitchers, making rotation changes (by adding in Sale and Tanner Houck) only based on performance, not because injury forced their hand."
https://theathletic.com/3581072/2022/09/13/red-sox-medical-staff-situation/
Did you want to read the whole post before snarking?
I pointed out in my post that this lineup was unlikely to ever take the field, merely that it was the best case scenario. The team will need it's depth to play well to be a good team, both in the lineup and the pitching staff.
Also, speaking of Story specifically, estimates of his recovery amount to 4-6 months. Since he had the surgery the second week of January, if his recovery goes really well, he could be back in May. If it's 6 months, he could be back in July.
Of course, he could also be done for his career... but buses drive around every day, we don't expect people to get hit by them when projecting the roster.
I'm not clear on the meaning of 4-6 months (not yours, the estimates). Does that refer to when he can begin "baseball activities" such as throwing or when he might be ready to play?
I read one article again, and it merely says return... It seems to imply to playing in games, not merely throwing soft toss, etc.
https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/.amp/news/when-will-trevor-story-return-to-red-sox-all-star-infielder-gives-an-encouraging-update-pat3
This is Story's expectation. Seems like he is implying playing meaningful games by the 6-month mark
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/02/trevor-story-outlines-best-worst-scenarios-for-timetable-to-return-to-red-sox-lineup.html
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Whitlock working out/learning from the best in ST right now
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1628070850313302032?s=46&t=o3BfTg5_ZMHghFMMm3SS1Q
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1628070850313302032?s=46&t=o3BfTg5_ZMHghFMMm3SS1Q
How righty hitters destroy bad curveballs, which is probably a damn good thing to learn.
We'll know who he's listening to when he decides whether to grow a regular moustache, fu manchu, or goatee.
The mental image of Whitlock switching to El Tiante's spinning, head-tossing delivery is delightful. Make it happen.
