Spring Training 2021

DeadlySplitter

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"Cora says @eduardorod5 is a “full-go” after missing last season. "

View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1362456536103149568

"Cora feels the Sox have more velocity on the staff. Declined to name a closer. Plans to have a structured bullpen. "

View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1362460993129955330


"Sale on what Alex Cora brings (back) to the team: "Camaraderie, trust, passion." He feels like Cora's approach will make a difference. "

View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1362427582717825025

"Cora on the idea of a six-man rotation: "We'll make decisions ... we're deeper, we have some capable guys." He didn't dismiss it but didn't endorse it, either. Sounds like they'll be flexible. "

View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1362458960830332932
 

brandonchristensen

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Oh man, it's that time again.

It's always so strange to remember that Cora is back. Let's hope that the Sox can play to the level they're capable of and the new crew help fill the holes.
 

joe dokes

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Oh man, it's that time again.

It's always so strange to remember that Cora is back. Let's hope that the Sox can play to the level they're capable of and the new crew help fill the holes.
All else being equal, if ERod is even 75% of what he was in 2019, they'll at least be playoff contenders. That alone has me hopeful.
 

BaseballJones

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There's no doubt that if ERod and Sale are healthy (once Sale returns), a rotation of Sale, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Richards, and Perez is WAY better than what they had last year, which was kind of Eovaldi, a bit of Perez, and a bunch of guys that would have gotten knocked around AAA (and got crushed by major league hitters). Absolutely night and day difference in rotations there.

But that's a big "IF" there.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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There's no doubt that if ERod and Sale are healthy (once Sale returns), a rotation of Sale, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Richards, and Perez is WAY better than what they had last year, which was kind of Eovaldi, a bit of Perez, and a bunch of guys that would have gotten knocked around AAA (and got crushed by major league hitters). Absolutely night and day difference in rotations there.

But that's a big "IF" there.
AND there's potential that either or both of Pivetta and Houck surpass Perez and/or Richards to improve things even more.

High ceiling for this squad of starters. Unfortunately, their floor is built of rickety health question marks. It could go a bunch of different ways.
 

BaseballJones

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AND there's potential that either or both of Pivetta and Houck surpass Perez and/or Richards to improve things even more.

High ceiling for this squad of starters. Unfortunately, their floor is built of rickety health question marks. It could go a bunch of different ways.
For sure. But I'm maybe a little bit irrationally excited. The pitching ought to be much improved, (1) because Rodriguez will be back and he alone is way better than everyone that threw for them last year, and (2) it really can't be any worse...just look at the numbers of the guys on the staff last year - easily the worst performance as a group I've ever seen from the Red Sox. That included awful seasons from guys who we've relied on like Barnes and we know can be a lot better.

And the hitting should be pretty good - last year it was good even without Mookie on the team anymore. And they have got a number of young additions which give us reason to be intrigued. On the whole, this should be fascinating, especially with Cora back too. I'm looking forward to the season in a major way.
 

nvalvo

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Please keep sharing Spring Training news and photos here.

As a fan who only follows baseball, I always realize around this time of year that I would rather watch a random Grapefruit League game than the literal Super Bowl.

What I'm saying is that I need my fix. Is Marwin Gonzalez in the best shape of his life? I want to hear about it. Is Eduard Bazardo pitching in Bradenton against a bunch of guys who will break camp with the Altoona Curve? Riveting content. Is Xander Bogaerts day to day after fouling a ball off his foot? I need to know.
 

j-man

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here is my 02 cents
AL East
1 NYY 93-69
2 TOR 86-76
3 TB 84-78
4 BOS 81-81
5 BALT 69-93

AL Cent
1 CHW 92-70
2 MINN 90-72
3 CLE 79-83
4 KC 75-87
5 DET 71-91

AL WEST
1 HOU 88-74
2 LAA 85-77
3 OAK 83-79
4 SEA 72-90
5 TEX 68-94

5 TEAM PLAYOFF
1 NYY 2 chw 3 HOU 4 minn/5 tor if playoffs goes to 7 6 LAA 7 TB

NL East
1 ATL 95-67
2 WASH 94-68
3 NYM 91-71
4 PHILLY 84-78
5 MIA 76-86

NL Cent
1 STL 88-74
2 CC 85-77
3 MILW 83-79
4 CINY 70-92
5 PITT 59-103

NL West
1 LAA 103-59
2 SD 101-61
3 ZONA 82-80
4 SF 81-81
5 COL 60-102

5 Team NL
1 LAD 2 ATL 3 STL 4 SD/5 WASH if they go to 7 6 nym 7 CC

ALCS NYY over CWS NLCS LAD OVER ATL WS LAA OR ATL OVER NYY
 

j-man

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my Power poll

1 LAD
2 SD
3 ATL
4 NYY
5 WASH
6 NYM
7 CWS
8 STL
9 HOU
10 MINN
11 TB
12 TOR
13 LAA
14 CC
15 PHILLY
16 OAK
17 MILW
18 BOS
19 ZONA
20 SF
21 MIA
22 CLE
23 KC
24 SEA
25 DET
26 CINY
27 TEX
28 BALT
29 COL
30 PITT
 

DeadlySplitter

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The Gray Eagle

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(Edit: I had posted this in the 2021 thread, but it seems like it fits better here, because a lot of key decisions are going to be made during spring training.)

Jen McCaffrey in the Athletic has some info on depth chart projections and how certain players might be used, and the theme is versatility and shifting roles:
https://theathletic.com/2393307/2021/02/18/red-sox-depth-chart-projections/
The rotation will start with Eduardo, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez. 5th starter? McCaffrey has that job going to Pivetta to start the season. Will there be a 6th starter? Maybe.

Starting Pitching Depth:
40-man options:
RHP Matt Andriese, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Tanner Houck, RHP Bryan Mata, RHP Connor Seabold
Others: RHP Daniel Gossett, RHP Ryan Weber, LHP Matt Hall, LHP Kyle Hart, LHP Stephen Gonsalves, RHP Matt Carasiti, RHP Zac Grotz
Prospects: RHP Thad Ward, RHP Frank German, RHP Josh Winckowski
Bloom has said the ideal plan for the Red Sox is to start Houck at Triple A, but that’s really dependent on how spring training progresses. He might pitch so well they can’t leave him out of the rotation at the outset or an injury might crop up among the five listed above. Either way, it won’t be long before we’ll be seeing plenty of Houck this season, especially if the Red Sox progress with a six-man rotation, as Bloom has suggested.

Andriese will probably be in the bullpen as the team’s swingman, but Rule 5 draftee Whitlock is in that mix too. Whitlock needs to remain on the active roster because of his Rule 5 status, unless he starts the year on the injury list, which is possible as he’s coming off Tommy John surgery, which he had in July 2019. That might be a way to avoid a bit of a roster crunch.

Gossett, Weber, Hall, Hart and Grotz are non-roster invitees to big-league camp and might be in the mix for depth starts throughout the season. However, none of them are currently on the 40-man.

On the prospect front, Mata and Seabold are rotation options for later in the year. Both pitched well at the alternate site last summer, but need organized game action; they’re expected to start the year in Triple A. Ward, a 2018 fifth-rounder who posted a 2.14 ERA in 25 starts in 2019, might be in that same mix, but wasn’t at the alternate site last summer, so he’s likely a bit farther down the line. He should start the year in Double A, but it is notable that he was brought to camp as a non-roster invitee.
Here's the projection for a 9-man bullpen:
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Adam Ottavino
RHP Hirakuzo Sawamura
LHP Josh Taylor
LHP Darwinzon Hernadez
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Austin Brice
RHP Garrett Whitlock
RHP Matt Andriese

40-man options:
RHP Colten Brewer, RHP Phillips Valdéz, RHP Marcus Walden
Others: RHP Seth Blair, RHP Caleb Simpson, RHP Kevin McCarthy, RHP Kaleb Ort, Prospects: RHP Durbin Feltman, RHP Andrew Politi
Brewer, Valdéz and Walden are on the 40-man and all have at least one option, and hence are likely candidates to begin the year in Triple A with a decent chance of contributing to the big-league bullpen throughout the season.

McCarthy signed as a minor-league free agent in November. In 169 major-league relief appearances with the Royals, he’s posted a 3.80 ERA. Blair and Simpson signed as minor-league free agents last summer and pitched at the alternate site. Ort was claimed from the Yankees as part of the minor-league Rule 5 draft in December and has a healthy 13.5 K/9 in 33 appearances between Double A and Triple A in 2019.
Dalbec will likely be the starting first baseman:
Dalbec will be the starting first baseman for the Red Sox, but there might be some growing pains as he adjusts to a full season. Gonzalez offers a decent backup with 226 career games at first, and, as a switch-hitter, can be a left-handed complement to Dalbec. Chavis remains on the 40-man roster, but at this point, he’s more likely to start the year in Triple A with Gonzalez and Hernandez filling the holes Chavis once plugged.
Who plays CF?
At the moment, Verdugo is the frontrunner to see the most playing time in center, but newcomer Franchy Cordero, acquired in the Andrew Benintendi trade, has experience there too. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said the team will use spring training to determine the strongest defensive alignment, leaving the door open for now with Verdugo and Cordero competing for the position. If the team feels Cordero is best suited for center, Verdugo will slide back to right field.
So if it's Verdugo in CF, who is in RF? Right now, Renfroe would get a lot of time there. But there will be a lot of moving pieces:
Renfroe has played 304 of his 400 career games in right field so he’s best suited there. But depending on how center field shakes out with Verdugo and Cordero, Verdugo could see more of his time in right with Renfroe in left.
Kike: He's versatile, but when he signed there was talk that he would be used more in one regular position rather than his usual jack-of-all trades role.
Hernandez should see most of his time at second base, but given his versatility, he’ll be called to fill in elsewhere too, meaning there will be an opportunity for others at second.
He's spent significant time in center, but still figures to see most of his work at second base. He doesn’t have a ton of experience at first (15 games) but could be used there in a pinch.
Hernandez could handle shortstop, too. Hernandez has limited time at third (33 career games). He has significant playing time in left, though is more of a center fielder.
He's played 75 games in RF and can fill in there as well.
More on Kike from Cora in the Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/2397692/2021/02/18/red-sox-alex-cora-spring/
Cora called Hernandez an above-average defender at second base, where he’ll see most of his playing time, but said if Hernandez does end up starting a game in the outfield, he’d likely transition to second base late in the game because of his defense.

“As a hitter, I still believe there’s something more there,” Cora said of Hernandez, whose career numbers show he’s had more success against left-handers. (For what it’s worth, Hernandez thinks that’s because he hasn’t had as many consistent at-bats against righties.)

“I believe he can hunt fastballs,” Cora said. “And he can hit them for extra-base hits. And that’s something I liked a few years ago, he’s very dynamic, he’s a good athlete. He’s coming from an organization that they live with the extra-base hit, and trying to get on base, which is good so we’ll see what happens there lineup-wise but I’m gonna challenge him.”
Franchy:
He's penciled in right now to start in LF. Again, moving pieces:
Gonzalez (175), Hernandez (127) and Renfroe (125) all have significant playing time in left, though Hernandez is more of a center fielder. Gonzalez is likely to be the primary backup at the corners.
Backup SS:
Seems like we might not really have much of one on the active roster. Will have a couple options in the minors if X needs to go on the DL, but when he needs a rest, Marwin might get the call-- but he has only played one game there in the last 2 seasons. I doubt he is still very good there defensively. Kike can play SS, but he's only had 8 starts there the last 2 years.

Bench:
With Hernandez, Gonzalez and Arroyo expected to be on the Opening Day roster, they’ll fill many of the depth holes... Since Arroyo doesn’t have any options left, it’s likely he earns a spot on the Red Sox bench over Chavis and Arauz.
Gonzalez is probably the first backup option for Devers, having played 73 games at the position over the past two years. Hernandez has limited time at third (33 career games), but Arroyo has actually seen more major-league time at the position (43 games) than anywhere else...
Meanwhile, Marcus Wilson is the only other outfielder on the 40-man roster and could be called on if needed. Jarren Duran is expected to start the year in Triple A with a midseason call-up to Boston. That would slot Verdugo back to right field with Cordero splitting time with Hunter Renfroe in left.
For those wondering about Jeter Downs, he is a non-roster invitee to camp, but that’s mainly because minor-league camps are pushed back this year. He likely won’t be ready to make his major-league debut until 2022, so we won’t list him here as a realistic depth option.
 

joe dokes

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Among other things, it's nice to see that apparent AAA starting depth like Hauck, Seabold and Mata are seen as pitchers who are going to be MLB regulars some day, as opposed to guys who don't belong in the majors (either ever or any more).
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I feel strangely optimistic about this team, and very excited to have baseball (almost) back
 

Tuff Ghost

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Hernandez's exact role could be very Swiss Army knife, as suggested. Leading off some days? CF to 2B some days, 2B to CF other days?

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1362460037235560454
Rob Bradford also tweeted, "Meet your new leadoff hitter" (link) in reply to that. I am not going to lose sleep over it, but Hernandez seems like a poor choice to leadoff and not someone who should be potentially getting the most at-bats. His on-base skills are subpar and in a downward trend. Overall, he's been a below average hitter. He does not even fit the antiquated speedy leadoff hitter stereotype, with around 60th percentile sprint speed. Maybe some more consistent playing time will get him to click, but I would not want him penciled in at the top of the lineup unless he shows something new.

Year OBP BB % wOBA
2018 .336 10.8% .342
2019 .304 7.8% .302
2020 .270 4.1% .285
Career .313 9.2% .315

(MLB average wOBA is .321 and BB% is 8.3%.)
 
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JBJ_HOF

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Tomase, Bradford and Brown have all suggested Hernandez bat leadoff now, which I hope is not true, and can't believe that Bloom and company would want. No reason for him to sniff 1-2 in the order. Even if things click for him, his batted ball profile (lots of fly balls) is still going to lead to low BABIP (career .270!) and thus lower OBP.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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We usually have an optimal lineup thread, so these posts could end up there, but isn’t Verdugo a good lead off choice? I agree with others that Hernandez hasn’t shown that kind of on base profile in the past.
 

dynomite

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We usually have an optimal lineup thread, so these posts could end up there, but isn’t Verdugo a good lead off choice? I agree with others that Hernandez hasn’t shown that kind of on base profile in the past.
I agree with this re Verdugo. From the pure perspective of "Who do you want getting the most ABs on the Red Sox?," that answer has to be Verdugo/Devers/Xander/JDM in some order -- and given the requirements of lineup construction, probably in that order, right?

Obviously the way this Red Sox team is built means they likely will be changing lineups frequently and adjusting for different skillsets and based on different pitchers, but ultimately I want Verdugo/Devers/Xander to have as many chances at the plate as possible every game.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I don't think Cora is an idiot, so I'm not going to overreact here. He is "challenging" Kike because he he thinks he can be better than he's shown. I read this as meaning that if he shows he can get on base enough to justify putting him at the top of the order, he may do so, but that's an "if" (and maybe a big one). If he shows a propensity to bounce fly balls off the Monster and turns into Pedroia 2.0, then maybe he ends up batting leadoff. But I wouldn't bet on it, and I doubt AC is either. Verdugo is still most likely to be batting leadoff.
 

effectivelywild

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I don't think Cora is an idiot, so I'm not going to overreact here. He is "challenging" Kike because he he thinks he can be better than he's shown. I read this as meaning that if he shows he can get on base enough to justify putting him at the top of the order, he may do so, but that's an "if" (and maybe a big one). If he shows a propensity to bounce fly balls off the Monster and turns into Pedroia 2.0, then maybe he ends up batting leadoff. But I wouldn't bet on it, and I doubt AC is either. Verdugo is still most likely to be batting leadoff.
Fangraphs actually had an interesting article regarding batting order for players with identical wRC+ but who get there in different ways (higher OBP/lower slugging vs. lower OBP/higher slugging). Basicallly, obviously in a lineup you want your best overall hitters to get as many ABs as possible but for guys with similar wRC+ its better for the high OBP guy to bat leadoff (or higher in the order) and the high SLG guy to bat later (preferably at the end of your "top tier" hitters. I know that this sounds pretty intuitive but it was interesting to see someone do some simulations and back it up.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Sort of an aside, but can anyone explain the “progression” of throwing from flat ground to the mound? I don’t get what biomechanical difference there is between the two for purposes of arm rehab/strengthening. Seems like they involve the same arm action and both would tax the arm about the same. Throwing slightly downhill would be easier on the arm, if anything, no? Is it an extension issue?
 

mikeysox

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Sort of an aside, but can anyone explain the “progression” of throwing from flat ground to the mound? I don’t get what biomechanical difference there is between the two for purposes of arm rehab/strengthening. Seems like they involve the same arm action and both would tax the arm about the same. Throwing slightly downhill would be easier on the arm, if anything, no? Is it an extension issue?
according to the folks at Driveline, throwing on the mound is actually slightly less taxing on the arm, assuming both are at Max effort. I believe, however, it is easier to throw at less than max on flat ground. Or, put another way, it’s harder to go less than full speed on the mound.

So if a pitcher is working back from something or on ramping up, they might start with flat ground to ease into it.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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according to the folks at Driveline, throwing on the mound is actually slightly less taxing on the arm, assuming both are at Max effort. I believe, however, it is easier to throw at less than max on flat ground. Or, put another way, it’s harder to go less than full speed on the mound.

So if a pitcher is working back from something or on ramping up, they might start with flat ground to ease into it.
The bolded is the key. Especially for a pitcher. Even mentally, it's hard to be on the mound, toeing the rubber, and not go full windup, full speed. It's why they always warm up on flat ground. Starting pitchers usually will throw in the outfield before moving to the bullpen mound. Relievers typically start in front of or beside the bullpen mound for the first few throws before stepping up to the rubber.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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So it’s really more of an approach issue? Easier to take it easier if you’re just loosening up. And don’t screw up your actual pitching mechanics by doing something different/less on the mound? That makes sense. Difference between throwing and pitching.
 

nattysez

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I'm really surprised how much stock Cora claims to be putting into ST performance. As anyone who's followed ST knows, there are a lot of bad/young pitchers and a lot of pitchers "working on stuff" in these games. Quique is going to have at best a handful of ABs against major league pitchers throwing their best stuff. That doesn't seem like a good basis for making any kind of evaluation.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm really surprised how much stock Cora claims to be putting into ST performance. As anyone who's followed ST knows, there are a lot of bad pitchers and a lot of pitchers "working on stuff" in these games. Quique is going to have at best a handful of ABs against major league pitchers throwing their best stuff. That doesn't seem like a good basis for making any kind of evaluation.
I interpreted performance to be his approach and effort rather than his results in spring training. Like if the spring training goal is to be more aggressive early in the count and use the opposite field more, it wouldn't matter if his slash line was .150/.175/.200 if he was attacking pitches early and hitting to the opposite field with regularity. They might consider that success.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Spring training stats are worse than useless. Spring training scouting is crucial-- especially this year when last year's stats were screwy due to the virus, and minor leaguers either had bizarre seasons or no season at all.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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Even mentally, it's hard to be on the mound, toeing the rubber, and not go full windup, full speed. It's why they always warm up on flat ground. Starting pitchers usually will throw in the outfield before moving to the bullpen mound. Relievers typically start in front of or beside the bullpen mound for the first few throws before stepping up to the rubber.
This is precisely right. I'd venture to guess that he probably even started on one knee, or at least spent a significant amount of time actively not engaging his trunk, legs, etc. The less you get the rest of your body into it, the less stress you're going to put on the arm (at least, as long as you've positioned your body well). I posted the video because it's obvious it's taking some torque to throw like that, which is quite progressed from where I imagine he was in the fall.
 

NDame616

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I'm really surprised how much stock Cora claims to be putting into ST performance. As anyone who's followed ST knows, there are a lot of bad/young pitchers and a lot of pitchers "working on stuff" in these games. Quique is going to have at best a handful of ABs against major league pitchers throwing their best stuff. That doesn't seem like a good basis for making any kind of evaluation.
Cora has been involved in professional baseball for 30 years. He knows what ST is. He's giving beat reporters, whom he is friendly with, stuff to write. I wouldn't put much stock in it.
 

joe dokes

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I'm really surprised how much stock Cora claims to be putting into ST performance. As anyone who's followed ST knows, there are a lot of bad/young pitchers and a lot of pitchers "working on stuff" in these games. Quique is going to have at best a handful of ABs against major league pitchers throwing their best stuff. That doesn't seem like a good basis for making any kind of evaluation.
I suspect Cora knows all this, and that whatever stock he is putting into it, he is properly contextualizing it. I'm sure we'll see him put guys he's really interested in "seeing" into situations that have some value, like against major Leaguers, or pitching a 2nd inning of relief.
 

dynomite

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Hmm. Well, obviously I'll defer to AC here because he's watched them both up close, and certainly there are some similarities to Brown -- Richards also throws predominantly fastballs & sliders. I'll also admit I didn't watch a ton of Kevin Brown's career.

Still, beyond their 3rd offering being different (changeups for Brown vs. curveballs for Richards), based on fangraphs pitch categories (which are only available for late in his career, to be fair, although that's when he was teammates with Cora in LA) Brown basically lived on low 90s fastballs (throwing them 75%) while Richards mixes his mid 90s fastballs more frequently with secondary pitches (especially the slider). I feel like, at his absolute best, Richards could be more like... Cleveland-era CC Sabathia?
 

Dustin the Wind

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I think the bigger issue is relying on Alex Speier.

Ian Brown just says "Alex Cora compared his sinker to Kevin Brown's."
I don’t understand this.. Speier is one of the most reliable and respected Redsox reporters, and seemingly always positively contributes interesting material. It isn’t even a disputable report, Alex Cora mentioned it during his recent live Spring Training presser that when he and Tom Goodwin were watching bullpens, watching Richards reminded them of Kevin Brown, but also went on to say that he wasn’t comparing “stuff”.
 

DJnVa

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I don’t understand this.. Speier is one of the most reliable and respected Redsox reporters, and seemingly always positively contributes interesting material. It isn’t even a disputable report, Alex Cora mentioned it during his recent live Spring Training presser that when he and Tom Goodwin were watching bullpens, watching Richards reminded them of Kevin Brown, but also went on to say that he wasn’t comparing “stuff”.
If he said he wasn't comparing "stuff" then Speier's tweet saying he was is incorrect, no?
 

Earthbound64

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Is there an issue with Speier's reporting? I typically like the guy and thought he was pretty well respected.
I don’t understand this.. Speier is one of the most reliable and respected Redsox reporters, and seemingly always positively contributes interesting material.
The first post kind of answers the 2nd post.
And to both posts - not everything he tosses out there is worthwhile.

Also -

If he said he wasn't comparing "stuff" then Speier's tweet saying he was is incorrect, no?
That.
 

Rasputin

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I haven't really been able to be excited about baseball since 2017 and I feel it coming back and it feels so fucking good.
 

Rasputin

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I can’t be the only one to appreciate this irony, right?
I know you couldn't know, but I had good reason. My wife was diagnosed with lung cancer that February and she passed away on July 1 when we got beat bad by the Yankees to fall into a tie for first place. All the really great things happened after that while I was in a massive depression and couldn't enjoy anything. I was terrified by the Yankee series because my wife hated losing to them like you wouldn't believe and had we lost, I don't know how deep a hell I'd have been in.

And now, back to the banter.
 

koufax32

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I know you couldn't know, but I had good reason. My wife was diagnosed with lung cancer that February and she passed away on July 1 when we got beat bad by the Yankees to fall into a tie for first place. All the really great things happened after that while I was in a massive depression and couldn't enjoy anything. I was terrified by the Yankee series because my wife hated losing to them like you wouldn't believe and had we lost, I don't know how deep a hell I'd have been in.

And now, back to the banter.
Ras, I am so sorry. I feel like an idiot now.
I’m sorry for your loss and that you had to go through that
 

jon abbey

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Sorry, Ras. Honestly I feel a little better about NY losing that series now.