Great write up.
Thanks for the information. One thing I’ve come across is that a wax box is more than a vendor box/complete set boxes. What’s the deal with that? Is that just because the cards are sealed and in better shape generally? I’m talking like a sealed wax box with 36 packs of cards.
I don’t know much about collecting other than I like to do it and it’s fun. But it’s weird to me that you can buy a box for like $50 with 500 cards in there and yet something like a PSA 10 Nolan Ryan card in the 1986 topps set is a $2,000 card. There seems to be a disconnect in my brain between the box value and card value. It doesn’t add up in my head.
It'll depend on the product. Super broadly, if a wax box is more than a complete set is it's the chance to get something that's not in the complete set box or multiple cards of what you really want.
So like, back to 1988 Topps - you can get a complete set of 792 cards for probably $15 shipped from someone who built it or $30 (likely less) of a true factory sealed, unopened set. Whereas a sealed box is probably more like $40-$45 shipped for 540 cards. Compared to a hand collated set, I would guess the condition of those in sealed packs is probably a bit better than the hand-collated set. For the factory sealed set, a lot of people buying those boxes are paying a bit extra for the thrill of ripping open packs or for cheap packs to give to people or for something fun and cheap to sell at a store, things like that. There's just more utility with the packs. There is nothing in the packs that isn't in the set so - but it's sure more fun to build.
For more modern stuff, it's a bit more complicated. A 2024 Topps Complete Set is like $50 on Amazon - it includes Series 1 and Series 2 but
not the update Series - and it includes a few exclusive cards - absolutely the cheaper way to get that complete set. However, there are players - often important ones- who are only in Topps Update, so if the goal is a true master set you may need to buy a set someone compiled or open those cards yourself. More relevantly, the cards that really can rack up the value are the inserts, autos, rare parallels, and the like and those are only in packs.
Personally, if I had a kid, I'd actually do the silly thing and grab the complete sets. Nice boxes, a nice little bonus, and much easier and cheaper than putting it together yourself, but that's the difference.
For the second paragraph, it's just that PSA 10s of these older cards are EXTREMELY difficult due to the lack of QA/QC when printing - and '86 Topps was particularly bad. Especially with the black borders and general lack of care in handling. The Bonds rookie was in 1986 Topps Traded (so not even in that main set, just its own small little box) - SGC has graded 66,22 of these and there is a 3% gem rate (225) - around 80% of them are SGC8, SGC8.5, or SGC9. Nolan Ryan - has had 585 copies submitted to SGC - and
0 have gemmed. 1986 Topps in general has a 2% gem rate with SGC, and that's with people extracting from factory sets and 40 year old sealed boxes.
In an odd way, the PSA10 Quality Nolan Ryan is kind of like the huge "chase" hit in this stuff...because odds of finding it are so low.
