To expand on the 2023 Topps Odds, someone has posted odds for Jumbo, Hobby, and Retail.
Long story short is unless you're specifically a rainbow foil collector or just want to rip at the cheapest price point, go jumbo. I compared six cards odds wise. I used Blowout's Price Per Pack for Hobby and Jumbo and a standard $25 blaster price for 8 packs for retail (if a blaster is 7 packs, obviously that makes it worse). Basically, my pack prices worked out to $16.50 for a hobby pack ($165 a box, 10 packs in a box), $3.75 for Hobby (90/24), and $3.125 for retail (25/8). If you buy solo packs of course expect the premium, your price may vary, etc. I fully expect retail blasters of this to hit clearance level pricing FWIW.
The priced odds of a rainbow foil - an unnumbered parallel, is roughly the same cost wise across products - about $31-$37 to pull. Obviously not worth that much as a card but the main point is at 1/10 at retail and hobby, even at 1/2 in jumbo, it evens out price wise. What that tells me is that rainbow foil, along with any non hard limited card, is likely to be at much higher production runs. Not shocking but enough.
The gold (/2023) parallel is where the gap emerges. The odds are 1:4 in a jumbo pack, so you're spending about $66 (4 packs at $16.50 a pack) to get one. The odds are 1:33 in a hobby pack, so you're spending about $123.75 (a hobby box and change). The odds are 1:99 in a retail pack so you're spending $309 in retail to get one gold.
This is continuous across other hard limited cards - I did Vintage Stock as well which I believe is /100. It's $1155 in Jumbo, $2610 in Hobby, and $6521 in Retail (I pulled two of these - one in a blaster and one in a regular Hobby box from Update just for reference and didn't spend nearly that much)
The new Golden Mirror Short Prints? $759 in Jumbo, $1702 in hobby, and $4250 in retail.
Interestingly Topps is also varying up the degree of variation. For instance, the gap between product types for both Vintage Stock and Golden Mirror is pretty similar betwen the product types - about 2.25x more expensive to find in Hobby than Jumbo, about 5.6x more expensive to find in Retail than Jumbo, about 2.5x more expensive to find in Retail than Hobby. However, gold while still being a better bet in Jumbo, isn't as much of a better bet - the 2.5x gap between retail and hobby is there but the Jumbo difference is smaller. I'd have to go through odds for everything to really tell if that's consistent.
I also chose the 1988 Relics and Autos because those can be things people look for - first it's Hobby/Jumbo exclusive. The only relic/autos I saw on Blaster Odds are the commemorative patch cards, the rare parallels with autographs, and the base autograph (which is nigh impossible). Not shockingly, despite having three "hits" in a Jumbo and one "hit in a Hobby'...it's STILL more likely to hit a 1988 relic in Hobby, but more likely to hit a 1988 auto in Jumbo (even if it's still 1 in 4 boxes give or take).
Edit: In short - for easier hits and non numbered inserts retail is likely your best bet - things like One-Two Punch Base, All Aces base, etc. - it's a better cost investment. For instance, odds to hit an All Aces are the same between retail and hobby but retail packs are cheaper. It's 4x easier to hit in Jumbo but the packs are 5x more expensive. For anything else with any enforced rarity it's fairly consistent that Jumbo is by far your best ripping bet - you'll need to spend about 5.5x as much on retail as you would a Jumbo to get a numbered parallel or one of the most difficult inserts (like Heavy Lumber). You'll need to spend about 2.25x as much on hobby as you would a jumbo (with some variance) for the same. Retail is seven packs - just makes it worse. That shifts the retail spend on harder inserts and numbered cards closed to 6.5x in most cases and mitigates some of the easier card advantages. Even if retail blasters hit 50% clearance, which to me feels quite possible, it's still a bad bet unless jumbos double...which feels a bit more possible than I thought it was but won't be due to the insane print run on the product - even if it's not as far off from S1 22 as I thought...you can still get S1 22 for cheap.
Edit2: I ended up buying a few Ginter autos I had been buying instead of going for a hobby box. That's my stance on 2023 Topps. If I'm gonna rip it's gonna be jumbo whether it's a break or an outright purchase. Topps is definitely fussing with odds and distribution to confuse print run values. It seems Hobby is up about 1.5x but they shifted a lot of the parallels from retail to hobby to offset this in that sense, and they absolutely hard shifted a ton of those hits to jumbo as well. Don't buy retail until that stuff is on mega clearance.
