Speier: How Well has Bloom Done Trading for Prospects?

Petagine in a Bottle

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Thought this was worth sharing as the Sox decide what to do at the deadline. More of a list than an analysis, though.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/28/sports/how-well-has-chaim-bloom-done-trading-prospects-depth-players/


“Since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom joined the Sox in October 2019, they have acquired 21 minor league players over 12 trades.

What’s been the cumulative impact of those deals? The Sox crushed one deal, landing Nick Pivetta(as well as Connor Seabold) for relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree.

But beyond that, the trades made under Bloom appear to have added to the organizational depth without adding a player who projects to be an above-average big league regular.”
 

A Bad Man

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Very few prospects project to be above-average big league regulars - kind of a funny piece
 

Fishercat

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I feel like I'm digging in the wrong place for the trades, without Globe access, this is what I found in terms of relevant trades where the Sox acquired a prospect - I have a couple trades beyond what the article seems to have

  1. January 21, 2020. The Boston Red Sox traded Travis Lakins Sr. to the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later. The Chicago Cubs sent Jhonny Pereda (minors) (February 23, 2020) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
  2. August 31, 2020. The Boston Red Sox traded Josh Osich to the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later. The Chicago Cubs sent Zach Bryant (minors) (February 27, 2021) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
  3. December 2, 2019. The Boston Red Sox traded Sandy Leon to the Cleveland Indians for Adenys Bautista (minors).
  4. August 31, 2020. The Boston Red Sox traded Kevin Pillar to the Colorado Rockies for a player to be named later. The Colorado Rockies sent Jacob Wallace (minors) (September 18, 2020) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
  5. February 10, 2021. As part of a 3-team trade: The Boston Red Sox sent Andrew Benintendi and cash to the Kansas City Royals. The New York Mets sent a player to be named later and Josh Winckowski to the Boston Red Sox. The Kansas City Royals sent players to be named later and Franchy Cordero to the Boston Red Sox. The Kansas City Royals sent Khalil Lee to the New York Mets. The Kansas City Royals sent Luis De La Rosa (minors) (June 4, 2021) and Grant Gambrell (minors) (June 4, 2021) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade. The New York Mets sent Freddy Valdez (minors) (June 4, 2021) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
  6. February 10, 2020. The Los Angeles Dodgers traded Jeter Downs, Alex Verdugo and Connor Wong to the Boston Red Sox for Mookie Betts, David Price and cash.
  7. December 1, 2021. The Milwaukee Brewers traded Jackie Bradley Jr., Alex Binelas (minors) and David Hamilton (minors) to the Boston Red Sox for Hunter Renfroe.
  8. January 25, 2021. The New York Yankees traded Frank German (minors) and Adam Ottavino to the Boston Red Sox for player to be named later.
  9. January 18, 2021. The Boston Red Sox traded C.J. Chatham (minors) to the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Victor Santos (minors) (July 17, 2021) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
  10. August 21, 2020. The Philadelphia Phillies traded Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold to the Boston Red Sox for Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman.
  11. August 30, 2020. The San Diego Padres traded Jeisson Rosario (minors) and Hudson Potts (minors) to the Boston Red Sox for Mitch Moreland.
  12. February 17, 2021. The Tampa Bay Rays traded Ronaldo Hernandez (minors) and Nick Sogard (minors) to the Boston Red Sox for Chris Mazza, Jeffrey Springs and cash.

I think these are the twelve. My first short thought is that a lot of these trades aren't trading talent we'd expect to get anything but low end organizational depth for. Trades 1-4, 8-9, and 11-12 all seem like low end talent of very late (post-July) trades that were aiming to just get something for deals or, in the case of Ottavino, buying. 10 is obviously a pretty big win.

That leaves 5-7 really - Beni, Mookie, and Renfroe trades.

The Benintendi trade was selling him low and they ended up getting their #9 prospect on SoxProspects and not much else from the PTBNL train, as well as Franchy. I think that trade (as well as the Betts trade) has been hammered out here, but I'm not convinced that Beni at that point was bringing in substantial trade value prospect wise - 2020 was lost after a declining 2019. Bloom could have gone in the direction of maybe aiming for a higher end prospect without getting back the MLB Readyish talent.

The Betts trade has been discussed a ton so I won't go too far - a lot of it was salary relief and they did end up with a good outfielder and a couple prospects who just didn't develop the way one might hope - Downs was a Top 50 (I think) prospect at the time so he swung, it was a miss it seems. On the other hand, the prospect they original had in mind was Graterol who was highly ranked and they had injury concerns on, and since then he's been a slightly above replacement level relief pitcher with some injury issues, so I don't think that'd excite people too much.

The Renfroe trade seems kind of similar to Benintendi- Bloom went more for a combination of the immediate replacement and depth prospects. A guy like Renfroe maybe could have brought in a higher end prospect (not a primo one but better) than Binelas but he decided to go for a little bit of everything as opposed to a lot of one thing. I think Bloom has/had a lot of issues to fix with the post Dombrowski Sox and he went the pathway of doing a little of each as opposed to one at a time.

There's the question of what trades weren't done of talent that could bring players back, though I think no one would've been happy if they sold in 2021, and there's obvious reasons 2020 and this year have been weird.
 

kazuneko

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It certainly makes it a lot harder for fans to buy into what Bloom is doing when he swings and misses on key trades. Verdugo and failing prospects is not an exciting return for a generational talent like Betts. Had he actually been able to bag Lux (2.2 WAR this year) over Downs there might be less consternation not only about his approach but also what Sox would do in the infield if X really does end up leaving in free agency.
 

Apisith

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Springs has given the Rays 2 wins this year, so Bloom lost that trade by quite a bit. That’s looking as bad as the Pivetta trade was good for us.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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I feel like this piece isn't inaccurate, but that doesn't mean there's any insight. That's the nature of trading for prospects, by the very definition of the word. It's the act of buying lotto tickets (some have a higher upside, some have a higher floor, most don't pan out).

The Mookie trade you were always going to lose, and I feel like that trade is the driving force for the way you view Bloom, for better or worse. Verdugo, Downs, Wong all have had ML opportunities. Shocker: None have amounted (individually or even combined) to 20% the player Betts is. There was the potential to add maybe another prospect or higher end prospects if they didn't include Price and half of his 96 million dollars due. But that was a big part of the trade. Clearing that money.

The Renfroe trade is annoying, mostly because it did signal a value of the future as much (potentially more) than the present. It wasn't unreasonable to add JBJ and some somewhat interesting prospects for Renfroe, but it sucked that there was no right handed OF option acquired to, at minimum compliment, and at most, outright overtake the right field position. It made the team worse for 2022, and could be viewed as an unforced error. You can lose a trade in the moment, but win it in retrospect. Hopefully this is what happens with the Renfroe and maybe Beni trades. The cake is baked with the Mookie trade. What came back was ultimately less important than the money they sent out and didn't commit to long-term imo, which sucks. I take this issue up with Henry as much as Bloom.

When you talk about above-average starters coming from prospects, I think that's where you have to kill it drafting. You are identifying guys that fit a profile that are in-line with organizational attitudes and makeups and you have years to work with them and develop them into the players you envisioned them being. The last three drafts will be what define Bloom imo. Not necessarily the trades he made.

I think Bloom has done a bad job with the bullpen, moreso than trading for prospects. The jury is still out with many of the trades made. The bullpen for his entire time in Boston has been horrendous. He hasn't identified undervalued assets in relief like he did in Tampa.
 

begranter

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Alex puts them into buckets. Here's the list he's looking at:

BIG LEAGUE IMPACT
Nick Pivetta Workman/Hembree
CURRENT MAJOR LEAGUE DEPTH
Jeter Downs Betts
Franchy Cordero Benintendi
Josh Winckowski Benintendi
Connor Seabold Workman/Hembree
Connor Wong Betts
Ronaldo Hernández Springs/Mazza
POTENTIAL BIG LEAGUE REGULAR
Alex Binelas Renfroe
POTENTIAL BIG LEAGUE ROLE PLAYERS
Frank German Salary Relief
David Hamilton Renfroe
Christian Koss Aybar
Jacob Wallace Pillar
A CUP OF COFFEE?
Victor Santos Chatham
Luis De La Rosa Benintendi
Nick Sogard Springs/Mazza
OTHERS
Jeisson Rosario Moreland
Hudson Potts Moreland
Grant Gambrel Benintendi
Freddy Valdez Benintendi
Zach Bryant Osich
Adenys Bautista Leon
 

oumbi

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It certainly makes it a lot harder for fans to buy into what Bloom is doing when he swings and misses on key trades. Verdugo and failing prospects is not an exciting return for a generational talent like Betts. Had he actually been able to bag Lux (2.2 WAR this year) over Downs there might be less consternation not only about his approach but also what Sox would do in the infield if X really does end up leaving in free agency.
A nice thought on Lux, but it seems it was not possible, at least according this article:

"The Dodgers drew a sharp black line around Lux. Jon Heyman reported that month that the Dodgers would not include Lux in a trade “in any scenario.” He was viewed at the time as the type of player a franchise could build around for a lengthy period."

https://calltothepen.com/2021/05/09/los-angeles-dodgers-reassessing-mookie-betts-trade/
 

moretsyndrome

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Alex puts them into buckets. Here's the list he's looking at:

BIG LEAGUE IMPACT
Nick Pivetta Workman/Hembree
CURRENT MAJOR LEAGUE DEPTH
Jeter Downs Betts
Franchy Cordero Benintendi
Josh Winckowski Benintendi
Connor Seabold Workman/Hembree
Connor Wong Betts
Ronaldo Hernández Springs/Mazza
POTENTIAL BIG LEAGUE REGULAR
Alex Binelas Renfroe
POTENTIAL BIG LEAGUE ROLE PLAYERS
Frank German Salary Relief
David Hamilton Renfroe
Christian Koss Aybar
Jacob Wallace Pillar
A CUP OF COFFEE?
Victor Santos Chatham
Luis De La Rosa Benintendi
Nick Sogard Springs/Mazza
OTHERS
Jeisson Rosario Moreland
Hudson Potts Moreland
Grant Gambrel Benintendi
Freddy Valdez Benintendi
Zach Bryant Osich
Adenys Bautista Leon
Is there a reason he omitted Verdugo? Previous MLB service time, maybe? But that would also apply to Pivetta.
 

billy ashley

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I think a lot of the trouble with the post hoc analysis of these trades is that they don't take into context the value of the players at the time.

Springs is a fantastic example of this. One could look at what Springs has done in Tampa and be pissed that we gave up an asset, but he was DFA fodder at the time of the trade.

One could look at the Moreland trade as a big nothing, but at the time, they were getting back two guys who had at points in recent memory had received some top 100 buz around the league. It was seen as a steal at the time. It just didn't work out.

The Beni trade looks less positive now, because Franchy hasn't panned out and AB is riding a .370 BABIP to appear to be a good OF again (he's fine, but he's pretty generic if you remove that BABIP) but they got a legit SP/Swing out of the deal. At the time, they also snatche dup the Met's biggest bonus baby from the prior class (he's been a bust, though)
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think it’s interesting to note that most of the prospects acquired in trades seem to have lost value since joining the Sox. Maybe that says something about player development, maybe it’s just noise, though. Most of Bloom’s successes seem to be players the organization didn’t have to develop much.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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It certainly makes it a lot harder for fans to buy into what Bloom is doing when he swings and misses on key trades. Verdugo and failing prospects is not an exciting return for a generational talent like Betts. Had he actually been able to bag Lux (2.2 WAR this year) over Downs there might be less consternation not only about his approach but also what Sox would do in the infield if X really does end up leaving in free agency.
The deal also got hung up because he rejected the inclusion of Brusdar Graterol, who's only 23 and has a 124 ERA+ in '22 and would likely- in this bullpen- either be the closer or the 8th inning guy and ended up getting Jeter Downs instead. (Yes, Graterol is on the IL w/ shoulder inflammation)
 

jose melendez

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I think a lot of the trouble with the post hoc analysis of these trades is that they don't take into context the value of the players at the time.

Springs is a fantastic example of this. One could look at what Springs has done in Tampa and be pissed that we gave up an asset, but he was DFA fodder at the time of the trade.

One could look at the Moreland trade as a big nothing, but at the time, they were getting back two guys who had at points in recent memory had received some top 100 buz around the league. It was seen as a steal at the time. It just didn't work out.

The Beni trade looks less positive now, because Franchy hasn't panned out and AB is riding a .370 BABIP to appear to be a good OF again (he's fine, but he's pretty generic if you remove that BABIP) but they got a legit SP/Swing out of the deal. At the time, they also snatche dup the Met's biggest bonus baby from the prior class (he's been a bust, though)
The entire job of acquiring prospects is in figuring out what the will be, not what they are (or are perceived as) right now.

Andy Marte was never Mike Schmidt.
 

kazuneko

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A nice thought on Lux, but it seems it was not possible, at least according this article:

"The Dodgers drew a sharp black line around Lux. Jon Heyman reported that month that the Dodgers would not include Lux in a trade “in any scenario.” He was viewed at the time as the type of player a franchise could build around for a lengthy period."

https://calltothepen.com/2021/05/09/los-angeles-dodgers-reassessing-mookie-betts-trade/
I get that and I remember it at the time but that doesn’t mean Bloom had to go forward with a Dodger trade that didn’t include Lux. Would the trade have fallen apart if Bloom had demanded Lux? Maybe. But we all know now that sticking to that position would have almost certainly have cost the Dodgers their first championship in 32 years.
I get it, trading for the right prospects requires a lot of luck, but I don’t think even Bloom would suggest it’s all luck. Clearly it requires two other things that are requisite for a successful GM: negotiation skills and talent evaluation. This is what GMs are paid for and their report card is the return they get on their trades. On this key trade, Bloom gets a C- at best. A lot of his trades are still incompletes but of the ones that can be graded there have been far too many with poor grades and only one clear win so far. That was not what the team was hoping to get out of him when he hired.
 

Fishercat

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I feel like this piece isn't inaccurate, but that doesn't mean there's any insight. That's the nature of trading for prospects, by the very definition of the word. It's the act of buying lotto tickets (some have a higher upside, some have a higher floor, most don't pan out).

The Mookie trade you were always going to lose, and I feel like that trade is the driving force for the way you view Bloom, for better or worse. Verdugo, Downs, Wong all have had ML opportunities. Shocker: None have amounted (individually or even combined) to 20% the player Betts is. There was the potential to add maybe another prospect or higher end prospects if they didn't include Price and half of his 96 million dollars due. But that was a big part of the trade. Clearing that money.

The Renfroe trade is annoying, mostly because it did signal a value of the future as much (potentially more) than the present. It wasn't unreasonable to add JBJ and some somewhat interesting prospects for Renfroe, but it sucked that there was no right handed OF option acquired to, at minimum compliment, and at most, outright overtake the right field position. It made the team worse for 2022, and could be viewed as an unforced error. You can lose a trade in the moment, but win it in retrospect. Hopefully this is what happens with the Renfroe and maybe Beni trades. The cake is baked with the Mookie trade. What came back was ultimately less important than the money they sent out and didn't commit to long-term imo, which sucks. I take this issue up with Henry as much as Bloom.

When you talk about above-average starters coming from prospects, I think that's where you have to kill it drafting. You are identifying guys that fit a profile that are in-line with organizational attitudes and makeups and you have years to work with them and develop them into the players you envisioned them being. The last three drafts will be what define Bloom imo. Not necessarily the trades he made.

I think Bloom has done a bad job with the bullpen, moreso than trading for prospects. The jury is still out with many of the trades made. The bullpen for his entire time in Boston has been horrendous. He hasn't identified undervalued assets in relief like he did in Tampa.
This is probably my main takeaway. It's legitimately hard to find a lot of top tier players who were acquired in trade as a minor leaguer (so no MLB experience prior) - the vast majority are draftees, international free agents, or players acquired via free agency or trade after they had shown their chops in the MLB. Hitting wise, I went through probably the top 40-50 hitters this year and I think the only one who met the "traded for as a minor leaguer from another org" who is still on that team qualifier was Yordan Alvarez - there may be others who did get traded as minor leaguers, succeed, and then left (like a Josh Naylor) but it's still less common than I thought it was. Two of the best pitchers this year (Alcantara and Fried) both fit that model, but if we were judging either of those trades 2 years out - Alcantara would be in the midst of his first good year and Max Fried is putting up middling numbers in the Sally League outside of the Top 100 prospects.

There's still a lot of time left on the evaluation of these prospects and trades and getting above average starters without trading huge assets (I'd argue Betts was the only one of those Bloom had traded) is...real tough.
 

E5 Yaz

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The deal also got hung up because he rejected the inclusion of Brusdar Graterol, who's only 23 and has a 124 ERA+ in '22 and would likely- in this bullpen- either be the closer or the 8th inning guy and ended up getting Jeter Downs instead. (Yes, Graterol is on the IL w/ shoulder inflammation)
That's an unfair characterization. The Red Sox medical staff had concerns over Graterol's shoulder, based off his injury the previous season. Bloom was working off the opinion of his medical staff when he pushed for a reworked deal. To lay the blame squarely on his shoulders doesn't tell the entire story.

Heck, look at the trade thread when it first went through. Half the posters here were upset that they were getting back a guy with a bum arm
 

jose melendez

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I like ALex Verdugo, but he's gotten worse every year, and he does enough dumb stuff that he needs to hit quite well to balance it out. BRef--has his top comp through age 25 as Terrence Long. If that's our return for Mookie, it's a catastrophic failure.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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I feel like I'm digging in the wrong place for the trades, without Globe access, this is what I found in terms of relevant trades where the Sox acquired a prospect - I have a couple trades beyond what the article seems to have
  1. January 21, 2020. The Boston Red Sox traded Travis Lakins Sr. to the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later. The Chicago Cubs sent Jhonny Pereda (minors) (February 23, 2020) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
  2. August 31, 2020. The Boston Red Sox traded Josh Osich to the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later. The Chicago Cubs sent Zach Bryant (minors) (February 27, 2021) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
  3. December 2, 2019. The Boston Red Sox traded Sandy Leon to the Cleveland Indians for Adenys Bautista (minors).
  4. August 31, 2020. The Boston Red Sox traded Kevin Pillar to the Colorado Rockies for a player to be named later. The Colorado Rockies sent Jacob Wallace (minors) (September 18, 2020) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
  5. February 10, 2021. As part of a 3-team trade: The Boston Red Sox sent Andrew Benintendi and cash to the Kansas City Royals. The New York Mets sent a player to be named later and Josh Winckowski to the Boston Red Sox. The Kansas City Royals sent players to be named later and Franchy Cordero to the Boston Red Sox. The Kansas City Royals sent Khalil Lee to the New York Mets. The Kansas City Royals sent Luis De La Rosa (minors) (June 4, 2021) and Grant Gambrell (minors) (June 4, 2021) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade. The New York Mets sent Freddy Valdez (minors) (June 4, 2021) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
  6. February 10, 2020. The Los Angeles Dodgers traded Jeter Downs, Alex Verdugo and Connor Wong to the Boston Red Sox for Mookie Betts, David Price and cash.
  7. December 1, 2021. The Milwaukee Brewers traded Jackie Bradley Jr., Alex Binelas (minors) and David Hamilton (minors) to the Boston Red Sox for Hunter Renfroe.
  8. January 25, 2021. The New York Yankees traded Frank German (minors) and Adam Ottavino to the Boston Red Sox for player to be named later.
  9. January 18, 2021. The Boston Red Sox traded C.J. Chatham (minors) to the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Victor Santos (minors) (July 17, 2021) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
  10. August 21, 2020. The Philadelphia Phillies traded Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold to the Boston Red Sox for Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman.
  11. August 30, 2020. The San Diego Padres traded Jeisson Rosario (minors) and Hudson Potts (minors) to the Boston Red Sox for Mitch Moreland.
  12. February 17, 2021. The Tampa Bay Rays traded Ronaldo Hernandez (minors) and Nick Sogard (minors) to the Boston Red Sox for Chris Mazza, Jeffrey Springs and cash.
For completeness, we should add:

December 3, 2020. The Boston Red Sox traded Yoan Aybar to the Colorado Rockies for Christian Koss (minors).

This is an odd exercise. I can see an argument for including Cordero in the discussion but Pivetta does not belong in it if the focus is how Bloom has done when acquiring prospects. And there is a much more prominent question of whether the acquired prospects should be evaluated as a snapshot at the time of acquisition or based upon their subsequent time in the Red Sox organization. Binelas, Downs, and Potts each showed promise at the time of acquisition but all three have subsequently stumbled down the defensive spectrum, placing increased pressure on their bats that have frequently failed to perform.

To the specific question of how Bloom has done when acquiring prospects, I think that the answer is not wisely but too well. The better question more worthy of the resources of a major newspaper is how much these failures are attributable to each of poor evaluation, poor development, and the inherent volatility of prospects.
 

soxhop411

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The deal also got hung up because he rejected the inclusion of Brusdar Graterol, who's only 23 and has a 124 ERA+ in '22 and would likely- in this bullpen- either be the closer or the 8th inning guy and ended up getting Jeter Downs instead. (Yes, Graterol is on the IL w/ shoulder inflammation)
The Sox rejected Graterol because of his medicals....
https://www.startribune.com/trade-of-brusdar-graterol-called-into-doubt-because-of-medical-records/567611702/
That's an unfair characterization. The Red Sox medical staff had concerns over Graterol's shoulder, based off his injury the previous season. Bloom was working off the opinion of his medical staff when he pushed for a reworked deal. To lay the blame squarely on his shoulders doesn't tell the entire story.

Heck, look at the trade thread when it first went through. Half the posters here were upset that they were getting back a guy with a bum arm
Exactly

Here is his transaction history since being traded to the dodgers
14-Jul-22 Los Angeles Dodgers placed RHP Brusdar Graterol on the 15-day injured list retroactive to July 11, 2022. Right shoulder inflammation.
3-Aug-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers recalled RHP Brusdar Graterol, and from Oklahoma City Dodgers.
31-Jul-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers optioned RHP Brusdar Graterol to Oklahoma City Dodgers.
23-Jul-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers recalled RHP Brusdar Graterol from Oklahoma City Dodgers.
4-Jul-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers optioned RHP Brusdar Graterol to Oklahoma City Dodgers.
2-Jul-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers recalled RHP Brusdar Graterol from Oklahoma City Dodgers.
4-Jun-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers optioned RHP Brusdar Graterol to Oklahoma City Dodgers.
4-Jun-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers activated RHP Brusdar Graterol.
31-May-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers sent RHP Brusdar Graterol on a rehab assignment to Oklahoma City Dodgers.
29-Apr-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers placed RHP Brusdar Graterol on the 10-day injured list.
18-Apr-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers activated RHP Brusdar Graterol from the 10-day injured list.
1-Apr-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers placed P Brusdar Graterol on the 10 day disabled list.
 

BigJimEd

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Is there a reason he omitted Verdugo? Previous MLB service time, maybe? But that would also apply to Pivetta.
From the article:

Here’s a look at the 21 players the Sox placed in the minor leagues once Bloom acquired them.

BIG LEAGUE IMPACT

RHP Nick Pivetta
(Workman/Hembree deal with Phillies): Pivetta was buried at the Phillies’ alternate site in 2020 when the Sox traded for him.
I believe Pivetta reported to Pawtucket when he first arrived.
 

Yaz4Ever

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I like ALex Verdugo, but he's gotten worse every year, and he does enough dumb stuff that he needs to hit quite well to balance it out. BRef--has his top comp through age 25 as Terrence Long. If that's our return for Mookie, it's a catastrophic failure.
I’m in almost total agreement with everything here. That said, without knowing what else we could have gotten for Mookie and not knowing whether it was ownership or Mookie who made signing him long term impossible, there’s no real way to say if this is catastrophic or not. Losing Mookie is catastrophic, of course. But, if Bloom got the best that he could possibly get on the open market, especially if he had to move price as well, it is what it is. Mookie is one of the players (Soto, Ohtani) that you pay whatever they want to lock them down. If Mookie made it clear he had no interest in coming back to Boston after his previous deal, there’s nothing that ownership can do with that point except try to get the best possible return. If ownership decided they didn’t wanna pay Mookie what he wanted, that’s on them, and to me that is catastrophic. The problem is we will never know. I honestly think Mookie was holding out for more than he actually ended up getting due to the pandemic, but I don’t know that for a fact. If ownership thought that that was too much, they had to do what they thought was right. I think that was a horrible decision if ownership made that choice.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Is there a reason I keep seeing "BETTS" in all these conversations but almost never see "PRICE" stapled to his name? Because I think getting rid of Price was not a tiny part of the Mookie Betts to the Dodgers trade. Yes, he has given the Dodgers some value (a bWAR of almost 1), but at $16 million/year getting LA to take him is also a benefit of the trade. At a minimum his name should be appended to Betts whenever the trade is analyzed
 

nvalvo

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Exactly. If Bloom wants credit for Pivetta then he deserves criticism for Springs.
Yes and no. He brought in Springs, too. So that shows me that whatever pitching wisdom they're using so successfully to identify pitching potential in Tampa is also being used here; we just couldn't get much out of him (during the weird 2020 season) and moved on. So while there's a fair criticism there, it's basically that the Bloom FO missed an opportunity that they themselves had created.

To be fair, Springs in Boston had a (mediocre) FIP more than two runs under his (catastrophic) ERA, and insanely bad HR/FB and BABIP numbers despite not giving up a high average exit velocity. So part of it might be something that would have come out in the wash over the larger sample of a full season.
 

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The Sox rejected Graterol because of his medicals....
https://www.startribune.com/trade-of-brusdar-graterol-called-into-doubt-because-of-medical-records/567611702/

Exactly

Here is his transaction history since being traded to the dodgers
14-Jul-22 Los Angeles Dodgers placed RHP Brusdar Graterol on the 15-day injured list retroactive to July 11, 2022. Right shoulder inflammation.
3-Aug-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers recalled RHP Brusdar Graterol, and from Oklahoma City Dodgers.
31-Jul-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers optioned RHP Brusdar Graterol to Oklahoma City Dodgers.
23-Jul-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers recalled RHP Brusdar Graterol from Oklahoma City Dodgers.
4-Jul-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers optioned RHP Brusdar Graterol to Oklahoma City Dodgers.
2-Jul-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers recalled RHP Brusdar Graterol from Oklahoma City Dodgers.
4-Jun-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers optioned RHP Brusdar Graterol to Oklahoma City Dodgers.
4-Jun-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers activated RHP Brusdar Graterol.
31-May-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers sent RHP Brusdar Graterol on a rehab assignment to Oklahoma City Dodgers.
29-Apr-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers placed RHP Brusdar Graterol on the 10-day injured list.
18-Apr-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers activated RHP Brusdar Graterol from the 10-day injured list.
1-Apr-21​
Los Angeles Dodgers placed P Brusdar Graterol on the 10 day disabled list.
I assumed that most people around here remember the details of the situation without needing a full recap and also why I noted he's currently on the IL with shoulder inflammation. That said, Graterol has been successful at the MLB level. Downs has not. Lots left to be written, for sure.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I like ALex Verdugo, but he's gotten worse every year, and he does enough dumb stuff that he needs to hit quite well to balance it out. BRef--has his top comp through age 25 as Terrence Long. If that's our return for Mookie, it's a catastrophic failure.
When I see Verdugo, I see 1990s Mike Greenwell.
Greenwell could really rake in his first few years, but in the 1990s he hit 294/354/437, .791 OPS, 108 OPS+.
In that time, Greenwell was LH hitter with a nice line drive stroke, who would hit 10-14 HRs year, steal maybe 6 to 10 bases, could catch everything he got to but would take mysterious routes sometimes and wasn't a good defender, was a dumb baserunner, and had facial hair that made him look worse.
That's exactly how I see Verdugo too.
 

Yaz4Ever

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I like ALex Verdugo, but he's gotten worse every year, and he does enough dumb stuff that he needs to hit quite well to balance it out. BRef--has his top comp through age 25 as Terrence Long. If that's our return for Mookie, it's a catastrophic failure.
I’m in almost total agreement with everything here. That said, without knowing what else we could have gotten for Mookie and not knowing whether it was ownership or Mookie who made signing him long term impossible, there’s no real way to say if this is catastrophic or not. Losing Mookie is catastrophic, of course. But, if Bloom got the best that he could possibly get on the open market, especially if he had to move price as well, it is what it is. Mookie is one of the players (Soto, Ohtani) that you pay whatever they want to lock them down. If Mookie made it clear he had no interest in coming back to Boston after his previous deal, there’s nothing that ownership can do with that point except try to get the best possible return. If ownership decided they didn’t wanna pay Mookie what he wanted, that’s on them, and to me that is catastrophic. The problem is we will never know. I honestly think Mookie was holding out for more than he actually ended up getting due to the pandemic, but I don’t know that for a fact. If ownership thought that that was too much, they had to do what they thought was right. I think that was a horrible decision if ownership made that choice.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I think this is a little harsh on Bloom. Outside of Betts and maybe Benintendi, he wasn't trading any big players. Trading guys like Lakins, Leon, Pillar, Osich, etc are never going to bring back big prospects. Would it be nice to hit on one of those lottery tickets? For sure. But you're not getting a top 10 prospect from someone's system for one of those guys.

The Betts deal will always sting, even considering we don't know exactly who Jeter Downs is yet. But the Sox weren't going to resign him and if that was the best deal Bloom could get, what's he supposed to do? Hang on to him and take the comp pick? Would that have made people feel better about it? Graterol was an intriguing arm, so it would've been nice to have gotten him instead of Wong, but he's had his ups and downs, as well. And we got out of the Price contract in the process.

If the Sox end up as sellers and move guys like JD, Eovaldi, Wacha, Vazquez, it'll be interesting to see what kind of returns he's able to get for those guys.
 

Rovin Romine

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I haven't read the article, but it seems odd that Pivetta and Verdugo would be put in separate buckets (or Verdugo would be left off). Both had ML experience, but were young and cost controlled players - both have really contributed. Also Winckowski seems to be a very serviceable #5 on short order for us this year. And that seems to meet the definition of a regular.

So that's three I'd put in the first bucket. There are some others that might potentially join them.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I think this is a little harsh on Bloom. Outside of Betts and maybe Benintendi, he wasn't trading any big players. Trading guys like Lakins, Leon, Pillar, Osich, etc are never going to bring back big prospects. Would it be nice to hit on one of those lottery tickets? For sure. But you're not getting a top 10 prospect from someone's system for one of those guys.
I agree. But the argument that Bloom is doing well usually centers on one of things, "He's really good at drafting" (which is probably true--aside from the Fabian misstep, he seems to have done a good job) and that "He's trading for prospects to build up the Red Sox system". The second part, doesn't look so great. I think that's what Speier is trying to say.

I understand that a majority of his trades were fringe players for lottery tickets, but none seem to be hitting (no pun). Will they get better? IDK, maybe. But the returns don't look great right now--which is where we are in this particular timeline.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think it’s interesting to note that most of the prospects acquired in trades seem to have lost value since joining the Sox. Maybe that says something about player development, maybe it’s just noise, though. Most of Bloom’s successes seem to be players the organization didn’t have to develop much.
I would imagine that most prospects lose value as they get older because most prospects don't pan out. I would also guess that given where the farm system was when Bloom arrived, he traded for multiple long-shot prospects to (i) establish some competition in the minors and (ii) marginally increase the odds of catching lightning in a bottle.

It would be interesting (but an enormous task) to see how other GMs are done.
 

Max Power

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When I see Verdugo, I see 1990s Mike Greenwell.
Greenwell could really rake in his first few years, but in the 1990s he hit 294/354/437, .791 OPS, 108 OPS+.
In that time, Greenwell was LH hitter with a nice line drive stroke, who would hit 10-14 HRs year, steal maybe 6 to 10 bases, could catch everything he got to but would take mysterious routes sometimes and wasn't a good defender, was a dumb baserunner, and had facial hair that made him look worse.
That's exactly how I see Verdugo too.
I was thinking he could develop into Trot Nixon. He tries really hard, does dumb things in the field and on the bases, and maybe some power comes in his late 20s.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I was thinking he could develop into Trot Nixon. He tries really hard, does dumb things in the field and on the bases, and maybe some power comes in his late 20s.
If he adds some muscle, shaves off the beard, and starts wearing eye black, this could happen.
 

Archer1979

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I agree. But the argument that Bloom is doing well usually centers on one of things, "He's really good at drafting" (which is probably true--aside from the Fabian misstep, he seems to have done a good job) and that "He's trading for prospects to build up the Red Sox system". The second part, doesn't look so great. I think that's what Speier is trying to say.

I understand that a majority of his trades were fringe players for lottery tickets, but none seem to be hitting (no pun). Will they get better? IDK, maybe. But the returns don't look great right now--which is where we are in this particular timeline.
The third part, is that Bloom would help transform the Sox organization into something it hasn't been historically, which is a development machine (particularly for pitching). This is something that TB has been able to do year after year and was hoping that the Sox could start bringing aboard impact players when Bloom came over. Accumulating blue chip prospects is great, but if you don't develop them into something that the Sox organization, or other organizations, can use at the ML level, you're not really doing much.
 
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nvalvo

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A lot of this conversation seems to weirdly disregard Bloom's biggest coup, which was not a trade, per se, but a good job identifying and acquiring an undervalued asset in another team's farm system: the rule V pick and extension of Garrett Whitlock.
 

joe dokes

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It certainly makes it a lot harder for fans to buy into what Bloom is doing when he swings and misses on key trades. Verdugo and failing prospects is not an exciting return for a generational talent like Betts. Had he actually been able to bag Lux (2.2 WAR this year) over Downs there might be less consternation not only about his approach but also what Sox would do in the infield if X really does end up leaving in free agency.
Depends on how he compares to other GMs.
 

nighthob

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That's an unfair characterization. The Red Sox medical staff had concerns over Graterol's shoulder, based off his injury the previous season. Bloom was working off the opinion of his medical staff when he pushed for a reworked deal. To lay the blame squarely on his shoulders doesn't tell the entire story.

Heck, look at the trade thread when it first went through. Half the posters here were upset that they were getting back a guy with a bum arm
Doubly unfair when you consider that the Dodgers traded for Graterol to put into the trade because they were literally only willing to part with surplus/non-prime talent. A sore armed reliever was the best that LA could get for Kenta Maeda, hence he went into the package. Much like Wong ended up there because LA had three much better catching prospects and Verdugo because he was a LF that didn’t hit for power and didn’t have a lot of speed.

From LA’s POV they were buying the last year of Mookie’s deal for $48 million and whatever leftovers there were in the fridge. They just weren’t willing to budge from that.
 

E5 Yaz

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Depends on how he compares to other GMs.
I tried to make this point the other night in the game thread. You have to judge the Betts trade not to how the return has fared, but to the return other teams received from similar trades.

It's one thing to say Verdugo, Downs and Wong haven't set the world on fire, we can all see that. It's another to say the return has proven to be far below what others teams received when trading off players of Betts stature -- that's how you can judge how Bloom did versus what other GMs pulled off.
 

jon abbey

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A lot of this conversation seems to weirdly disregard Bloom's biggest coup, which was not a trade, per se, but a good job identifying and acquiring an undervalued asset in another team's farm system: the rule V pick and extension of Garrett Whitlock.
I almost posted this last night, that I think it legit hurt Bloom when the rule 5 was cancelled this year post-lockout, so he couldn't snag someone else.
 

moretsyndrome

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I tried to make this point the other night in the game thread. You have to judge the Betts trade not to how the return has fared, but to the return other teams received from similar trades.

It's one thing to say Verdugo, Downs and Wong haven't set the world on fire, we can all see that. It's another to say the return has proven to be far below what others teams received when trading off players of Betts stature -- that's how you can judge how Bloom did versus what other GMs pulled off.
I agree, but trades involving players like Betts are pretty rare, and even then it's hard to get apples-to-apples as there are other factors like relative ages and the inclusion of the Price contract. I'd say Seattle did better on the top end when they traded Griffey. Nobody in the haul Bloom got for Betts will likely be more productive than Mike Cameron. On the other hand, Miami fared worse in the Cabrera trade, especially since the only good player they got (old friend Andrew Miller) took forever to produce, elsewhere.
 

Daniel_Son

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If acquiring these type of mid-level prospects allows Bloom to deal from a position of strength in future trades, then I think this conversation looks a little different. Like if the Sox package a few fringy guys with a top prospect for Soto or something (not advocating for that specifically), does that change the belief that Bloom "missed" on these acquisitions?
 
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E5 Yaz

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I agree, but trades involving players like Betts are pretty rare, and even then it's hard to get apples-to-apples as there are other factors like relative ages and the inclusion of the Price contract. I'd say Seattle did better on the top end when they traded Griffey. Nobody in the haul Bloom got for Betts will likely be more productive than Mike Cameron. On the other hand, Miami fared worse in the Cabrera trade, especially since the only good player they got (old friend Andrew Miller) took forever to produce, elsewhere.
Thanks for doing the heavy lifting on that. I guess my point is that if Verdugo ends up having a Cameron-like career, Bloom did comparatively well ... SSS and all.
 

RedOctober3829

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I tried to make this point the other night in the game thread. You have to judge the Betts trade not to how the return has fared, but to the return other teams received from similar trades.

It's one thing to say Verdugo, Downs and Wong haven't set the world on fire, we can all see that. It's another to say the return has proven to be far below what others teams received when trading off players of Betts stature -- that's how you can judge how Bloom did versus what other GMs pulled off.
Arizona traded Paul Goldschmidt and got a return that has proven to be disappointing. Andrew Young batted .205 with 7 HRs and 19 RBI over 2 years before being waived last year. Carson Kelly has put up a .750 OPS in 296 games since 2019 with a league average 100 OPS+. Luke Weaver is 9-19 with a 4.74 ERA in 48 games. He was so bad in the rotation that he was put in the bullpen this year.

Adrian Gonzalez was traded to Boston for Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, and Rey Fuentes. Rizzo has performed very well we all know that. Casey Kelly had a very disappointing career after being traded and only pitched in 26 major league games in his career which ended in 2018. Rey Fuentes was a 56 OPS+ hitter over 100 career games.

Those are two that come to mind that may compare to a player like Betts.
 

jon abbey

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I don't think any of the guys BAL got back for Machado panned out either.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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Thanks for doing the heavy lifting on that. I guess my point is that if Verdugo ends up having a Cameron-like career, Bloom did comparatively well ... SSS and all.
Even putting aside the fact that once they decided to trade him Bloom had to take the best that he could get, the trade was not Betts for Verdugo/Downs/Wong. It was 1 year of Betts for 5 yrs of Verdugo/6 yrs of Downs and Wong.

Ignoring anything the Sox might get from Downs or Wong (and the money saved by moving Price), Betts' bWAR/fWAR for that last year of control was 3.6/2.9.

Verdugo on the other hand has put up a total bWAR/fWAR of 3.9/4.3 with 2.5 years of control still remaining.

You can argue that not extending Betts was a "catastrophic failure", but the trade itself is much closer to a win than a loss.