Sox talking Mookie trade with Dodgers, Padres - News & Discussion

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amRadio

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This doesn't jive with the recent report that the Sox want to move Price with Mookie and receive two significant prospects in return. This smells like a San Diego rumor pushed as "sourced" by a reporter with nothing real to say. Taking Wil Myers and getting none of SD's top 5 prospects is almost the exact opposite of what the Red Sox reportedly want for Mookie.
 

chawson

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By the way, the Padres have a guy I'm mildly obsessed with named Jake Cronenworth -- a shortstop/pitcher who hit 334/429/520 in AAA last year and also pitched as an "opener." He seems like a Bloom Guy, and MLB has him ranked 17 in the Padres' system. Sign me up for him as the last piece in a deal.
Cronenworth would be a solid replacement for Holt. He reportedly had big exit velocity gains last year and as you say, seems like a Bloom guy. He’d be redundant with Lin, Marco and Arauz on the team but those guys shouldn’t matter much.

I’m also not as pessimistic about Myers as some here. Stranger things have happened than a former can’t-miss RHH prospect under 30 rebounding in Fenway.

Betts for a package of Myers, Lamet, Franchy Cordero, Cronenworth, Quantrill and Trammell would still be in the Padres’ favor, and it would reset the Red Sox pretty nicely.
 

moondog80

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Since Mookie has a fair amount of value (but not an immense amount) and Myers is way in the red, obviously the other considerations would have to be major for this to be good for the Sox.

But this got me thinking, who is the "better" value, Price (3 years at 96 mil) or Myers (3 years at 67.5 mil)?

Fangraphs estimates Price as being about 42 million underwater, which would be the equivalent of Myers at 25.5 mil for 3 years. I'd take Price, but the gap isn't huge.

Remember when everyone (including me) thought the Royals should be contracted for trading him?

 

chawson

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Fangraphs estimates Price as being about 42 million underwater, which would be the equivalent of Myers at 25.5 mil for 3 years. I'd take Price, but the gap isn't huge.
I think you’re right here. Price, when healthy, is far more likely to be an above average player than Myers. But of course the $18m~ gap in AAV makes the comparison even trickier.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think you’re right here. Price, when healthy, is far more likely to be an above average player than Myers. But of course the $18m~ gap in AAV makes the comparison even trickier.
Price is probably far less likely to be healthy too. Of course Myers probably offers more value by missing games than playing so there's that.
 

joe dokes

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Cronenworth would be a solid replacement for Holt. He reportedly had big exit velocity gains last year and as you say, seems like a Bloom guy. He’d be redundant with Lin, Marco and Arauz on the team but those guys shouldn’t matter much.

I’m also not as pessimistic about Myers as some here. Stranger things have happened than a former can’t-miss RHH prospect under 30 rebounding in Fenway.

Betts for a package of Myers, Lamet, Franchy Cordero, Cronenworth, Quantrill and Trammell would still be in the Padres’ favor, and it would reset the Red Sox pretty nicely.
More than just "seems like" a Bloom guy. Cronenworth was originally drafted by TB.
 

YTF

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If Myers is in the deal, Mookie should bring back two of those two four prospects, not zero.

Couple of thoughts:

- As its currently configured, my guess is that Dinelson Lamet would be in the deal. Great velocity and his slider, curve and changes are all plus pitches. Quantrill and Perdomo are fringe guys I could see Bloom being interested in too.
- Paddack would of course go a long way toward making up the difference, but that’s not happening.
- I wonder if the video replay reports have cast a bit of doubt over other teams’ perceptions of Mookie’s true talent.
Thanks for this post. I think a lot of people are forgetting or aren't aware of the good, young, cost controlled pitchers currently on San Diego's roster. That doesn't necessarily mean SD might be willing to part with them, but might explain why the Sox would be willing to accept a deal that doesn't include any of the top 5 prospects.
 

JimD

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These rumored discussions do have value to the Sox in one respect - if the Dodgers or another team were holding out hoping that Bloom drops his asking price, it puts possible pressure on them if they are still inclined to acquire Mookie.
 

amRadio

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Betts for a package of Myers, Lamet, Franchy Cordero, Cronenworth, Quantrill and Trammell would still be in the Padres’ favor, and it would reset the Red Sox pretty nicely.
I get the optimistic projection on Myers to a degree but I don't think the Sox should be projecting better than current value onto any of the pieces they get back for Mookie. If they have to absorb some of Myers salary to get a better return in prospects, fine, but the return here is horrible. Lamet is 27 and arbitration eligible in 2021 and hasn't brought any of his minor league success with him to the majors. Being league average at 27 in the NL West isn't interesting. Francy Cordero has a sub .800 minor league OPS and sometimes was a little old for the level he was playing at. Since arriving at AA Taylor Trammell has made Jarren Duran look like a phenom, putting up a .689 OPS. Cronenworth is a little interesting but he's 26, he's only a little over a year younger than Mookie. I don't even want to write anything mean about Cal Quantrill because looking at his B-ref page made me feel bad for him.

I'm not trying to attack you or anything, but if this is what the Red Sox have to do to get under the tax, that's horrible. I understand Mookie is a 27 million dollar rental, but there is nothing even remotely of value in that proposal (unless Myers takes the Fenway in a big way) and I hope the Red Sox would never consider anything like that.
 

Joe Sixpack

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I wouldn't mind the Sox trading Mookie for a top prospect, resetting their luxury tax penalties, and then re-signing him again at the end of the year. Kind of like their version of the Chapman/Gleyber Torres deal.
 

chawson

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I get the optimistic projection on Myers to a degree but I don't think the Sox should be projecting better than current value onto any of the pieces they get back for Mookie. If they have to absorb some of Myers salary to get a better return in prospects, fine, but the return here is horrible. Lamet is 27 and arbitration eligible in 2021 and hasn't brought any of his minor league success with him to the majors. Being league average at 27 in the NL West isn't interesting. Francy Cordero has a sub .800 minor league OPS and sometimes was a little old for the level he was playing at. Since arriving at AA Taylor Trammell has made Jarren Duran look like a phenom, putting up a .689 OPS. Cronenworth is a little interesting but he's 26, he's only a little over a year younger than Mookie. I don't even want to write anything mean about Cal Quantrill because looking at his B-ref page made me feel bad for him.

I'm not trying to attack you or anything, but if this is what the Red Sox have to do to get under the tax, that's horrible. I understand Mookie is a 27 million dollar rental, but there is nothing even remotely of value in that proposal (unless Myers takes the Fenway in a big way) and I hope the Red Sox would never consider anything like that.
This seems fair. It’s the pessimistic view, kind of the inverse of the one I chose to take in my post, but it’s no less a possible outcome.

I’m high on Lamet because he had a pretty below the radar breakout in 2017 and again over the last two months of 2019, with major surgery in between. He has a fastball that sits 96 and — according to this chart that breaks down individual pitches — he had an unlucky BABIP on it last year, and also has two very well rated secondaries, the slider and curve.

Franchy is reportedly a tools monster, great speed and power, much whiffs. He has had a hard time staying healthy, but can handle center field and may be a JBJ replacement if things break well.

You’re probably right to be as dubious about the others, or all of them, as you are excited, though Trammell seems well regarded as a top prospect and that currency could easily be used in a trade elsewhere.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Lamet strikes me as a great buy-medium-low candidate. His record this year was pretty damn good for a guy coming back from TJ after just one year's major league experience. He has swing-and-miss stuff (his overall contact rate was just shy of the top 10% among all pitchers with 50 or more innings, which includes high-leverage relievers), and while his ability to reach his ceiling is certainly open to question at this point, his floor seems pretty serviceable. I don't think his division has helped him that much -- his record is significantly better outside the NL West than in it (granted, SSS in spades here).

The arb-in-2021 part doesn't worry me because (1) it's 2020 we're trying to get under the cap in, and (2) if he performs well enough here to make his likely arb salaries worrisome, that's a nice problem to have. (EDIT: Actually he's a super two, so he's already in arb, and signed for $1.3M two weeks ago. That's slightly different, though $1.3M for a fringe-average-or-better starter seems like a great deal.)
 

chawson

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The arb-in-2021 part doesn't worry me because (1) it's 2020 we're trying to get under the cap in, and (2) if he performs well enough here to make his likely arb salaries worrisome, that's a nice problem to have. (EDIT: Actually he's a super two, so he's already in arb, and signed for $1.3M two weeks ago. That's slightly different, though $1.3M for a fringe-average-or-better starter seems like a great deal.)
Exactly. Trading for a guy with four years of team control hardly seems like a problem.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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If I'm trading Betts to SD, I want Tatis and one of him or Boegarts can move to 2b or 3b with Devers to 1st.
I'm beginning to think we need one of those filters like we used to have for misspellings of Buchholz, where every time someone types "trading Betts" it comes out as "trading one year of Betts and his $27 million salary." Because the second phrase is the reality we're talking about, and it sounds very different that way.
How about another one for misspelling Bogaerts?
 

RedOctober3829

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ElcaballitoMVP

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Man, I've tried to talk myself into Wil Myers a lot this offseason and while he could possibly be a RH platoon guy who can play 1B/LF and bounce balls off the monster, the guy stinks. The Padres have been looking to dump him for at least a year now and absolutely no one has been interested.

If the Sox are taking that contract on, it would be really disappointing to miss out on one of their top 5 prospects. I think you can make up some value with someone like Quantrill or Limet, but I've got a feeling there are going to be a lot of upset fans if this deal goes through as it's been reported.
 

chawson

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Myers is abysmal on defense to boot. Just an awful player. He's in the prime of a very mediocre career and he's hardly cheap.
I’d figure there’s a chance he plays first, where he’s less awful.

If this goes through and the Sox slide Myers to first and sign Puig to play right field at something like $9-10 AAV, that could be interesting too. Chavis and Dalbec complicate that, but I can’t figure out where either of them fit long-term.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I’d figure there’s a chance he plays first, where he’s less awful.

If this goes through and the Sox slide Myers to first and sign Puig to play right field at something like $9-10 AAV, that could be interesting too. Chavis and Dalbec complicate that, but I can’t figure out where either of them fit long-term.
Where is the luxury tax savings if they take on Myers and sign Puig for $9-10M?
 

Danny_Darwin

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I don’t think a Betts trade is going to happen, but if you’ll permit some hypothesizing, why not consider a deal with the Cardinals? They, too, have a hole in their outfield, a willingness to spend some money, a division that is theirs for the taking, and an extraneous expensive guy who’s a fit for Boston’s roster in Matt Carpenter. No idea what else would come back with him, but it seems a lot more logical of a starting point than what is currently under discussion.
 

E5 Yaz

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Mookie Betts is leverage for Sterling Marte. Have we reached "transcends baseball" territory yet?
 

E5 Yaz

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I don’t think a Betts trade is going to happen, but if you’ll permit some hypothesizing, why not consider a deal with the Cardinals? They, too, have a hole in their outfield, a willingness to spend some money, a division that is theirs for the taking, and an extraneous expensive guy who’s a fit for Boston’s roster in Matt Carpenter. No idea what else would come back with him, but it seems a lot more logical of a starting point than what is currently under discussion.
Well, they did just pick up one of the Rays' best prospects ... so it's not so outlandish a hypothesis
 

johnnywayback

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Another thing about a Mookie-to-SD trade is that I imagine the Padres stand much less of a chance of re-signing him in the brief post-season window before he hits free agency. If he winds up with the Dodgers, there's a real risk we never get a chance to win the market.
 

chawson

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Where is the luxury tax savings if they take on Myers and sign Puig for $9-10M?
It’s not much, I just like Puig at that price and he’s the only guy left on the FA market who can play right field in Fenway.

If that rumored package above is what we get from the Padres for Betts, maybe we flip Price’s contract with Trammell attached instead, which would then get us under if that’s still the goal.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Myers is abysmal on defense to boot. Just an awful player. He's in the prime of a very mediocre career and he's hardly cheap.
His statcast defense was in the 72nd percentile last year. He'd be a fine corner outfielder. Certainly far better defensively than Benintendi.
 

crow216

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If the Sox reset, it's fair to assume they would be right at the negotiating table with Mookie next year, right? Has there been any bad blood or just normal indicators that he'll look for the biggest contract?

Little bit of a gamble but we would all be calling Bloom brilliant if he somehow manages to field a competitive team in 2020, trade Mookie, and resign him. Yankee fans worst nightmare.
 

brandonchristensen

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It truly is the deadest part of the year if we're getting nearly 100 posts in less than 12 hours about a rumor of a trade that is not going to happen, put out by bored reporters looking for clicks and attention. Get it together people. :)
we usually have the Pats to keep us busy right now.
 

chawson

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His statcast defense was in the 72nd percentile last year. He'd be a fine corner outfielder. Certainly far better defensively than Benintendi.
Good post. Right field in Fenway is a different beast than any outfield spot in Petco, but he ranked +2 fielding outs above average last year (and -1 the year before). He’s fine.

(To your point, Benintendi was -10 last year and -1 the year before.)
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It’s not much, I just like Puig at that price and he’s the only guy left on the FA market who can play right field in Fenway.

If that rumored package above is what we get from the Padres for Betts, maybe we flip Price’s contract with Trammell attached instead, which would then get us under if that’s still the goal.
If getting under the luxury tax isn't the goal, why the FUCK would they trade Mookie at all? This would all be a whole lot of useless gymnastics only to end up at the same payroll number with arguably a worse lineup than they already have.
 

nighthob

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Speier's article makes me nervous. Those other rumors with LA he immediately poo-poo'd the idea. This one, he has more details and does not totally dismiss the idea.
On the other hand, if the Padres are willing to pay $39 million worth of that contract it would allow Boston to use that subsidize Price and get a decent return for him.
 

DanoooME

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I don’t think a Betts trade is going to happen, but if you’ll permit some hypothesizing, why not consider a deal with the Cardinals? They, too, have a hole in their outfield, a willingness to spend some money, a division that is theirs for the taking, and an extraneous expensive guy who’s a fit for Boston’s roster in Matt Carpenter. No idea what else would come back with him, but it seems a lot more logical of a starting point than what is currently under discussion.
The Cardinals cleared a spot for their top prospect Dylan Carlson. They don't need an OF.

His statcast defense was in the 72nd percentile last year. He'd be a fine corner outfielder. Certainly far better defensively than Benintendi.
Good post. Right field in Fenway is a different beast than any outfield spot in Petco, but he ranked +2 fielding outs above average last year (and -1 the year before). He’s fine.

(To your point, Benintendi was -10 last year and -1 the year before.)
Have either of you actually watched Myers play the OF? If I have a choice between Ben10 and Myers, I take Ben10 all day and twice on Sunday.
 

joe dokes

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Another thing about a Mookie-to-SD trade is that I imagine the Padres stand much less of a chance of re-signing him in the brief post-season window before he hits free agency. If he winds up with the Dodgers, there's a real risk we never get a chance to win the market.
In theory, yes. But Betts has been pretty consistent that he is going to enter the free agent market.
 

Danny_Darwin

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The Cardinals cleared a spot for their top prospect Dylan Carlson. They don't need an OF.
I’ll admit that I’m not super well-versed in Cardinalia, but unless I’m missing something, I think they still would? If Bader and Carlson are two spots, then their other options are Fowler (washed), Edman (probably should be playing 3rd), and O’Neill (kinda seems like he isn’t very good?).
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Mike Zarren once told me that you could accurately report at any time that the Celtics were in trade talks with any other team because every team is always calling other teams about their guys. So unless MLB is a lot different, I think you're wrong.
The leak of Houston Astros internal emails from 2013 backs you up, I think.

 

E5 Yaz

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I’ll admit that I’m not super well-versed in Cardinalia, but unless I’m missing something, I think they still would? If Bader and Carlson are two spots, then their other options are Fowler (washed), Edman (probably should be playing 3rd), and O’Neill (kinda seems like he isn’t very good?).
Plus the Cardinals (and the greatest fans in baseball) are so certain of their ability to keep stars they acquire, that they likely believe that they can sign Mookie long-term as they did with Goldschmidt, before free agency matters
 

DanoooME

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Why did Myers play half his games in CF?
Because the other guys were worse.

I’ll admit that I’m not super well-versed in Cardinalia, but unless I’m missing something, I think they still would? If Bader and Carlson are two spots, then their other options are Fowler (washed), Edman (probably should be playing 3rd), and O’Neill (kinda seems like he isn’t very good?).
If they really needed an OF, wouldn't they have re-signed Ozuna and not traded anything? They are running with Fowler, O'Neill and Carlson with Bader as a fallback.
 

E5 Yaz

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The leak of Houston Astros internal emails from 2013 backs you up, I think.

There is no absolute way to prove that every team talks to every other team about a player they're considering trading
 

Lose Remerswaal

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There is no absolute way to prove that every team talks to every other team about a player they're considering trading
 
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