Sox Rotation '22- The Good, The Pretty Good, The Not-Bad, the Pretty Bad and the Ugly

Beale13

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 2, 2006
191
I guess I can talk myself into not really caring who starts against the Yankees. Sox are in second place even with a WWI-style hospital of a pitching staff, and the Yankees don't need to come back to Earth until later in the season.
I'd love to see us beat them up a bit with a such a compromised roster and put some fear into them, and at the very least we have to hope we don't lose too much playoff standing with so many games left against them, but overall I agree with the above - it's been a long time since midseason Yankee-Red Sox games have felt this unimportant.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,735
I'd love to see us beat them up a bit with a such a compromised roster and put some fear into them, and at the very least we have to hope we don't lose too much playoff standing with so many games left against them, but overall I agree with the above - it's been a long time since midseason Yankee-Red Sox games have felt this unimportant.
They feel pretty important to me.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
9,966
Springfield, VA
Per above Seabold can only be recalled if someone goes on the IL. Which means Friday has to be either Wacha or he'll be IL'ed for Seabold, I think.

Crawford is then in line for Saturday.
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
3,268
Per above Seabold can only be recalled if someone goes on the IL. Which means Friday has to be either Wacha or he'll be IL'ed for Seabold, I think.

Crawford is then in line for Saturday.
Missed that, thanks

What a mess
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,735
The bad news: They're going into these huge games without Sale, Paxton, Eovaldi, Hill, and Whitlock, which means a lot of lesser pitchers need to step up.

The good news: They'll be adding (some sooner than others) Sale, Paxton, Eovaldi, Hill, and Whitlock, which will be quite a boost to the pitching staff.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
16,997
Maine
Doesn’t sound like he’s ready with that line, no?
The line is meaningless. It's spring training for him. It's about getting the work in, not the results.

There are only two factors that determine where his next start will be: pitch count and how he feels physically tomorrow morning. He threw 72 pitches. If there are no ill effects, he's pitching on Monday or Tuesday in St Petersburg on an 85-90 pitch limit.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
42,193
Doesn’t sound like he’s ready with that line, no?
I saw some of the game. He looked pretty good. FB clocked at 96 or so. Slider was moving well. Got squeezed a couple times, IMO. All in all, the inning or two I saw on tv was pretty encouraging. The hits he gave up were little dribblers.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
16,997
Maine
Any idea why Bello wasn’t optioned after the game?
Could be as simple as waiting to see how Sale feels today. If for any reason Sale has a setback after his latest rehab outing (maybe a paper cut from ripping down a poster?), they might want to keep Bello around to make another start next week. If they send down Bello last night or this morning, and then need a starter next Monday or Tuesday, they can't bring him back for 15 days unless they put someone else on the IL. With Seabold also on that 15 day clock for another 10 days or so, they're thin on starting options that can be called up. The only way around the 15 day minimum is to put someone else on the IL as the counter-move. They can't really afford to do that either unless it's legit because then they'd lose that guy for 15 days.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
42,193
Could be as simple as waiting to see how Sale feels today. If for any reason Sale has a setback after his latest rehab outing (maybe a paper cut from ripping down a poster?), they might want to keep Bello around to make another start next week. If they send down Bello last night or this morning, and then need a starter next Monday or Tuesday, they can't bring him back for 15 days unless they put someone else on the IL. With Seabold also on that 15 day clock for another 10 days or so, they're thin on starting options that can be called up. The only way around the 15 day minimum is to put someone else on the IL as the counter-move. They can't really afford to do that either unless it's legit because then they'd lose that guy for 15 days.
Ah, I see. So, probably happens today but they needed to maintain flexibility. Makes sense.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,735
Was just perusing MLB pitching stats and came across this guy: Martin Perez.

I'm laughing.

Last 5 seasons' of ERA:
2017 (Tex): 4.82
2018 (Tex): 6.22
2019 (Min): 5.12
2020 (Bos): 4.50
2021 (Bos): 4.74

And then this:
2022 (Tex): 2.34

LOL wut?
 

Minneapolis Millers

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,005
Twin Cities
Not that small. Some of those previous seasons he pitched fewer innings than the 100 he’s thrown this year so far.
? Yes, but you seemed to be asking why he’s pitching so well this year. He’s capable of pitching well for a half dozen games. His numbers will reset. They actually already are, based on his last two starts.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
19,766
Rogers Park
If you look into his peripherals, he's walking a touch fewer guys and conceding basically no HR — just 4 in 100 IP, two of which came in his most recent start. Maybe he's figured something out to prevent guys from squaring up the ball and cut his HR rate by ~60%, or maybe he's gotten a bit lucky on fly balls.

If his HR/FB ratio normalizes, he'll be considerably closer to his previous numbers.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
? Yes, but you seemed to be asking why he’s pitching so well this year. He’s capable of pitching well for a half dozen games. His numbers will reset. They actually already are, based on his last two starts.
Over the years (especially in his first stint with Texas IIRC) Perez has shown limited flashes of brilliance. His start this season is undoubtedly the best of those stretches.
 

Jason Bae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2021
378
NJ
If you look into his peripherals, he's walking a touch fewer guys and conceding basically no HR — just 4 in 100 IP, two of which came in his most recent start. Maybe he's figured something out to prevent guys from squaring up the ball and cut his HR rate by ~60%, or maybe he's gotten a bit lucky on fly balls.

If his HR/FB ratio normalizes, he'll be considerably closer to his previous numbers.
He isn't going to sustain the 4.4% HR/FB rate, but he has raised his GB% big time (from 43.6% to 52.6% this year, his highest mark since 2016). His 7.3 K/9 is still pretty subpar but it's still one of the higher marks in his career, and he's sporting a career best 2.3 BB/9. Even when you consider his home run luck, he has a career best 3.69 xFIP.
 

TheYellowDart5

Hustle and bustle
SoSH Member
Apr 16, 2003
8,877
NYC
Pretty clear Brayan Bello isn't ready — not that he was likely to be, and he's only here because the rest of the rotation broke into pieces, but he's not someone who can be counted on again down the stretch, I would think. His command and control are both subpar right now, he needs time to learn how to throw strikes consistently. MLB hitters are too disciplined to swing at borderline pitches.

ETA: 31 fastballs on the night (four-seamers and sinkers), just seven total whiffs + called strikes. The sinker in particular got whacked around.
 
Last edited:

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
16,997
Maine
Pretty clear Brayan Bello isn't ready — not that he was likely to be, and he's only here because the rest of the rotation broke into pieces, but he's not someone who can be counted on again down the stretch, I would think. His command and control are both subpar right now, he needs time to learn how to throw strikes consistently. MLB hitters are too disciplined to swing at borderline pitches.

ETA: 31 fastballs on the night (four-seamers and sinkers), just seven total whiffs + called strikes. The sinker in particular got whacked around.
Hopefully they won't need to call on him again, at least to start. I can see a scenario where he takes his experience back to Worcester and focuses on fixing what didn't work, and maybe being a viable bullpen option late in the year. Maybe not playoff-bullpen ready but able to eat a few innings in September to let the vets get a breather and allow them to be rested and ready for post-season action.

With Sale back tomorrow and Eovaldi expected to start on Friday in New York, and then the All Star break, Bello's spot should be covered going forward.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
5,178
Yeah, I doubt they really wanted to call him up in the first place, but he was the best option in that it didn’t force them to make another 40-man roster move. He got a taste, and is hopefully motivated to continue to work hard to get back.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
24,494
Hopefully they won't need to call on him again, at least to start. I can see a scenario where he takes his experience back to Worcester and focuses on fixing what didn't work, and maybe being a viable bullpen option late in the year. Maybe not playoff-bullpen ready but able to eat a few innings in September to let the vets get a breather and allow them to be rested and ready for post-season action.

With Sale back tomorrow and Eovaldi expected to start on Friday in New York, and then the All Star break, Bello's spot should be covered going forward.
Final line wasn't great, but he could've really cratered after the first two innings. And covering 1st on the DP showed that he kept his head in the game, even when getting hit around. I think the experience will do him good.
 

jtn46

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 10, 2004
9,211
Norwalk, CT
I'd like to see him against a different opponent. Tampa clearly just had a plan of taking pitches until he walked himself into trouble and then take until he has to throw a meatball in a bad count and swing hard. Lowe had a great hit on a really well located change and that happens, good hitters hit good pitches sometimes, but without all of the free baserunners they sting less.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
4,216
What does this do to Bello's "service time"? This sort of stuff always confused me. Does his MLB time start now, meaning he's a FA in 5-6 years?
If that was the case, I would rather have seen Murphy or any other mL starter not as highly regarded.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
24,494
What does this do to Bello's "service time"? This sort of stuff always confused me. Does his MLB time start now, meaning he's a FA in 5-6 years?
If that was the case, I would rather have seen Murphy or any other mL starter not as highly regarded.
I *think* MLB time is calculated by days, and 180 days is 1 year. Some other calculations are based on 40-man roster time, rather than MLB time.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
77,952
Oregon
I'd like to see him against a different opponent. Tampa clearly just had a plan of taking pitches until he walked himself into trouble and then take until he has to throw a meatball in a bad count and swing hard. Lowe had a great hit on a really well located change and that happens, good hitters hit good pitches sometimes, but without all of the free baserunners they sting less.
I get what you're saying, but any other opponent would have tape of Bello's first game and adopted the same strategy. Any other team knows enough about Bello specifically, through their minor league scouting, and through the knowledge that the Red Sox had to call him up earlier than planned to know that being patient at the plate would be the proper strategy
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
16,997
Maine
What does this do to Bello's "service time"? This sort of stuff always confused me. Does his MLB time start now, meaning he's a FA in 5-6 years?
If that was the case, I would rather have seen Murphy or any other mL starter not as highly regarded.
Service time is measured in days on the big league roster or big league IL (including 60-day IL). There are typically 187 service days in a season. Once a player has accrued 172 days he is considered to have a full year of service time, and a player must complete 6 full years to reach free agency. So yes his service time clock has started, but it will be paused when he's sent back down. If he's sent down today, he'll have accrued six days of service time. But also, there's no way he can earn a full year this year, so they'll still have him under team control for at least six more years anyway.

How teams have manipulated service time (famously with Kris Bryant among others) is not calling up a player until there are fewer than 172 service days left in a season so the player can't earn a full year of service time even if he's up for 171 days.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
9,966
Springfield, VA
How teams have manipulated service time (famously with Kris Bryant among others) is not calling up a player until there are fewer than 172 service days left in a season so the player can't earn a full year of service time even if he's up for 171 days.
They closed that loophole, right? I forget exactly how.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
16,997
Maine
They closed that loophole, right? I forget exactly how.
They didn't really close it. They just offered incentives that sort of backdoor closes it for the very best of the best rookies. If a player finishes first or second for Rookie of the Year, they're awarded the full year of service regardless of when they were called up. If a rookie is on the Opening Day roster and finishes top 3 in Rookie of the Year or top 5 in MVP/Cy Young balloting, the team gets an extra first round draft pick.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
9,966
Springfield, VA
Got it. Seems like it would simpler just to start the clock at 150 days instead of 172, or something like that. But I'm drifting way off topic here.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
9,966
Springfield, VA
Last 8 games for Kutter: 2.72 era, 43.0 ip, 34 hits, 13r/13er, 9bb/42k. .215/.260/.348 on a .266 BAbip.

He has to be the bright spot of the season so far. Hopefully it's not a mirage and his ceiling is something a bit more than high leverage swing man. He's looking like a legit starter. He's pitched against some solid teams too.
What a difference 48 hours makes. Even putting the Trade Deadline moves aside -- back-to-back dominant performances by Eovaldi and Kutter Crawford at Houston completely changes how I look at this rotation. If the Sox can sneak into a wild card, all of a sudden a playoff rotation of Sale-Eolvaldi-Kutter-Pivetta might be pretty damn strong after all.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,735
Looking ahead to 2023 and 2024, here's how I see the rotation shaking out...

Likely to be gone:
Eovaldi - will be a FA...they'll throw a QO his way. Unsure if he'll take it. I'll consider him to be gone.
Wacha - will be a FA...probably will get a decent paycheck from someone. Not sure it'll be from Boston.

Veterans who should/will be here...
Pivetta - under contract. Pretty decent back-mid rotation guy.
Sale - should finally be healthy and ready to go, but will never, IMO, be CHRIS SALE again. I just expect him to be...pretty good. Not worth $30m, but that's a sunk cost. Will happily live with "pretty good" at this point.
Paxton - should finally be healthy and ready to go. I expect him to be good. Not amazing, but in his career, he's always been a good pitcher. I'll take "good". I think the Sox should and will pick up his option.

Youngsters who should/could be here...
Crawford - he's done pretty well this year. Costs league minimum.
Winckowski - he's very much a back end of the rotation guy, but there's always a need for guys like that.
Bello - I hope this year's learning experience means he'll be ready to go next year because he's a dynamic talent.
Whitlock - not sure what the plan is but if he can be in the rotation and be healthy...that'll be terrific. But he's just so good in the bullpen.


Ideally, Eovaldi takes the QO (very unlikely though) and the Sox go into the year with a healthy top 4 of Eovaldi, Sale, Pivetta, and Paxton. Lots of injury risk there, so I think it would be important for them to add one more quality veteran. Or if not, hopefully Crawford and Bello are more than ready to go because they'd likely need to pitch a good number of innings. But if healthy (a big IF), a core of Sale, Pivetta, and Paxton is something you can work with. Obviously if Eovaldi leaves, they'll definitely need to add one or two good pitchers to the rotation.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
5,972
Boston, MA
What a difference 48 hours makes. Even putting the Trade Deadline moves aside -- back-to-back dominant performances by Eovaldi and Kutter Crawford at Houston completely changes how I look at this rotation. If the Sox can sneak into a wild card, all of a sudden a playoff rotation of Sale-Eolvaldi-Kutter-Pivetta might be pretty damn strong after all.
Less good in Toronto, where it's Eovaldi-Pivetta-??? for the Wild Card round.
 

Daniel_Son

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2021
688
San Diego
Less good in Toronto, where it's Eovaldi-Pivetta-??? for the Wild Card round.
Cora did say that something is going to change the next time they're in Toronto in September. After Duran got the jab, I'm a little more optimistic that Crawford will do the same, especially if the Sox are fighting for the playoffs.
 

pokey_reese

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 25, 2008
15,926
Boston, MA
The injury rate on SPs this year is insane. Walter might get a shot just out of desperation at this point (assuming he can get healthy), especially if Hill/Wacha can’t be relied on.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
31,444
Interesting quotes from Cora about Bello:

According to Cora, former Red Sox catcher Christian Vázquez flagged him from the Astros dugout to note that Bello looked uncomfortable during his fourth-inning appearance in the Red Sox’s 6-1 loss.

“There was a catcher on the other side paying a lot of attention too, pointing it out,” Cora told reporters. “I’m like ‘I got it.’ Hopefully it’s nothing serious and in X amount of days he can be okay.”
...
“Obviously he’s very important,” Cora told reporters. “He felt like ‘Give me one more pitch to get this thing over with.’ But if I let you throw and you get really hurt, I’ll be going to Caguas (Cora’s hometown).”
Link
 
Once again, Bello appeared to have been "snake-bitten" by medium ground balls through the infield during his brief appearance. The first hit was a "seeing-eye" double just inside the third base bag, but the second hit looked to be a sure 6-3 out, but the infield was shifted and the ball just hovered in no-man's land long enough for Altuve to reach. That's not the first time that Bello (who has about a 2-1 GB/FB ratio) appears to have been burned by the infielders being shifted out of position. I think this is a bigger problem than teams seem to realize, especially with pitchers who throw harder two-seamers at the bottom of the strike zone (as opposed to batters turning over low breaking balls with lots of horizontal movement). Any thoughts on this? We really only have a sample size of five short starts in the Bigs with him appearing to be improving with each start.
 

Ganthem

a ray of sunshine
SoSH Member
Apr 7, 2022
685
Once again, Bello appeared to have been "snake-bitten" by medium ground balls through the infield during his brief appearance. The first hit was a "seeing-eye" double just inside the third base bag, but the second hit looked to be a sure 6-3 out, but the infield was shifted and the ball just hovered in no-man's land long enough for Altuve to reach. That's not the first time that Bello (who has about a 2-1 GB/FB ratio) appears to have been burned by the infielders being shifted out of position. I think this is a bigger problem than teams seem to realize, especially with pitchers who throw harder two-seamers at the bottom of the strike zone (as opposed to batters turning over low breaking balls with lots of horizontal movement). Any thoughts on this? We really only have a sample size of five short starts in the Bigs with him appearing to be improving with each start.
Not a direct answer but your post got me thinking about defense. The Sox defense this season has been shall we say lacking at times. I feel that Bloom is really big into defense. It would not surprise when Bloom gets to remake this team next off season if we see more players like Story or JBJ in his prime. Slightly below average hitters, but superlative defensively. Obviously he is not going to fill the entire lineup with below average hitters, but I feel he really values defense. That is why Marwin and Santana were signed last year and that is why he had no issue shipping Vaz out. It was also why he had no issue not backing the truck up and giving Devers whatever he wanted last off season. Now that Dever's defense has improved I think it is likely he will sign a monster extension with the Sox. Defense is also why Bogey is not going to be finishing his career with the Sox. Even though a lot of fans just look at how far a player hits the ball, Bloom is interested in the entire package and getting elite defense can trickle down and make the pitching better which can trickle down and take some stress off the offense.