Absolutely; trading all four of those guys is an excellent use of resources. However, do you think this is the best use of that cash? It's not like the back end of the bullpen was the biggest need. Unless you think Tazawa/Uehara are done next year, I think looking at trading for a high-end starting pitcher would be more important.
Except for the part about getting out ahead of the market early and plugging a hole quickly to build some breathing room. Which was in the post you quoted.
I agree that most people thought Margot and Guerra would get traded this offseason, but I don't think anyone expected them to be dealt for a reliever (even an elite one). Now the only trade chips left are the ones you mentioned and they haven't addressed their biggest need.
Exactly. Kimbrel's good--I have fewer questions about him than about Uehara and Taz going into next year. But how do you go from "we can't pay Miller" to "we can pay Kimbrel and give up a bunch of talent" in one year? Is JWH worried about croaking in the near future?
Yea, aside from being a bad trade in value terms, this makes the offseason very difficult. They are probably down to, at the absolute most, 30 million in spending money. And the only trade chips left are insanely painful.
That's a fair point, but as geoduck noted, you can't hold it against DD. I was disappointed we didn't sign Miller last year, though I'm not sure (is anybody?) that it was because we didn't try.
Oh, I don't hold it against DD at all--as I said upthread, he is who he is. This smells like JWH getting impatient.
Yup, they gave up their most tradeable chips to fill the one hole that would have been easiest to fill through free agency (especially if you are okay with paying big money for a reliever - which apparently they now are)...
How do you know they only have 30 million left? Henry could be telling them they have an increased budget to spend from. Let's let the offseason play out.
Do you even remember early 2013? Hanrahan and Bailey gave the Sox such great depth in the pen, and they only really cost the Sox Melancon and Reddick.
And Kimbrel is three or four years younger than Miller. He's obviously a better player. Is he four million per year and four trade chips better?
The other thing to consider is the value of Kimbrel on the trade market (comparing trades to FA always seemed sort of random to me). Margot is the biggest piece of this lot, but none of them are enormous. However, when combined, we just got one of the top relievers in the game (Kimbrel ranked #8). If this offer was coming from the Padres, I'd check in with the Mets to see whether a Marrero or Devers (hinting that you'd might include either a pitcher or maybe both players) would net you one of deGrom, Harvey, or Syndergaard.
Well, I wonder if this is more about Kimbrel being an unusual commodity. His numbers are generally superior to Chapman's, and aren't too far off of Mariano in his prime. His six-year average ERA+ is 233, with a peak of 399. Assuming their baseball people think 2015 wasn't any sort of trend away from his peak, maybe this is the Sox saying "sure, usually you don't want to overpay for a reliever, even a closer, but this guy?"
This if anything this means JBJ is probably here to stay. I'm fine with this trade. People forget how filthy this guy is. Look at his trade history, this guy is great when evaluating who to trade and who to keep.
This is right except for it being all wrong. No one is saying this particular package bags a Sale or Gray. It's just a lot of talent to send out for a good reliever who is already being paid market rate.
And you don't think perhaps Hanrahan and Bailey, both of whom aren't at the caliber of Kimbrel, getting hurt at the same time may have been a bit of a fluke that shouldn't have any bearing on future decisions?
$4mil easy. Miller seems to have settled in, but five years of control problems aren't easily forgotten. It sucks that we didn't re-sign him, a very puzzling decision. But I don't view him as interchangeable with Kimbrel based on past performance.
What do you think the price would be for a reliever who is arb eligible then?
Assuming that he'll maintain a career like Mariano is a wish; it may certainly come true, but no one has any way of knowing.
This is just plain disengenous. Miller's three year ERA/FIP/xFIP is 2.09/2.08/1.94, Kimbrel's is 1.77/2.13/2.20.
Miller's problems with control were an issue as a starter, but not as a reliever. He had the same control issues in 2012 and 2013, but still put up a 3.17/3.05 FIP that year.
