Prospects burning a hole in DD's pocket. Margot seems like a lot for a reliever, but add Guerra and two more? Ouch.
Sox get Kimbrel
- Thread starter John Marzano Olympic Hero
- Start date
Well said. that is a package that should be netting a front of the rotation starter (not a Sale/Gray but just a step below) or a stud hitter. Kimbrel is great and all, but only so much value available in 60IP
On the surface. It's a horrible horrible trade. The type of package you give up for someone you foresee having a long term value to your club. Not a relief pitcher.
Not a good first showing.
Not a good first showing.
His K/9 hasn't declined 4 years running. And it fell all the way to 13.2/9 this past season.
His SIERA has "declined" over the past three years all the way from 1.67 to 2.21. That's concerning, all right. </sarcasm>
The biggest difference between last year and previous years was that his HR/FB spiked, and among other things, the fact that his Hard% actually went down last year suggests that that spike is probably not significant.
What a horrible trade. Those four for a RELIEVER. I guess this is what he was talking about when he said there would be PAIN.:dig
EDIT: Nope, trade announced. Ugh.
EDIT: Nope, trade announced. Ugh.
Last edited:
Holey moley. I feel like Myers would have to be in this deal to be square. Even for a non top-100 guy, Allen is pretty good.
1. his K rate was 16.66, 13.16, 13.86, and 13.20, so not a four year decline and the last three are close enough to be a wash. 2. his SIERA four years ago was 0.76, this past season it was 2.21. Yes, it declined from absurd to elite, but still elite.
Lets not paint Kimbrel as a declining or less than stellar player just because the current rumors suggest a massive overpay for him. He's great, but unless we hear the names Myers, Ross, or Kemp (plus that Dodger money) it's an overpay.
Absolutely crazy if more isn't coming. Is Kimbrel that much better than Darren O'Day? Why commit that much talent and 2/24Mill for Kimbrel when you can could just sign O'Day for around 4 years $32 million. If they end up picking up that option that will be more money than O'Day will likely see in the length of a four year deal - and O'Day wouldn't have required any talent to acquire...
Kimbrel is an excellent reliever and fills a big hole.
I thought they were trading for a Starter but the premium prospect package they just gave up makes me wonder if they are going into Free Agency for a Starter now. Do they really plan on trading 3-5 more upper level prospects for a starter too?
I thought they were trading for a Starter but the premium prospect package they just gave up makes me wonder if they are going into Free Agency for a Starter now. Do they really plan on trading 3-5 more upper level prospects for a starter too?
This is not a good trade. Guerra as a centerpiece I could see. Margot? Not a guy you trade for an expensive, already declining reliever. Packaging the two and then some is just asinine. Not a good start for the Dombrowski regime.
Well the same people breaking these prospects also said multiple MLers going to Boston. They've also said that Ross isn't believed to be in the deal, but clearly there is more to this than what we now know.
Use K%.
I'm just saying -- last season he was ~10th best RP in baseball by peripherals. Worth about a win and a half. A little more slippage and he's 20th. Not in his own tier like he was 3 years ago.
when your first trade is a massive overpay, every other potential trade partner just increased their ask
A reliever that makes every slot in the bullpen better, from the closer straight on down.
That's not insignificant, plus the fact prospects, even Margot, are far from a sure thing and we're dealing from positions of strength to address a serious need.
Get your hands on a top flight starter and go to war for 2016.
Wow..
If that's what DD sees as a good deal, let's hope he isn't doing any more trades this offseason. Absolutely ridiculous deal...
This is a pretty depressing start. Guess we can't blame stupidly stacked GFIN trades all inn Illitch.
You guys want to win the division, or build a farm system with three redundancies at every position?
Thats a huge chunk of the prospects we would be ideally dealing for an ace. Its not like we're saving anything on the salary end, either. Kimbrel probably takes up more than a quarter of their available payroll room. Holy fuck.
Generally speaking, one really shouldn't evaluate the talent of a reliever on single seasons; even if one sees a trend in small sample of years.
He's had a downward trend, but most of that decline came after the first year; a 50% strikeout rate and 0.76 SIERA (which he had in 2012) were likely unsustainable and didn't reflect his true talent. His peripherals haven't really changed much over the past three (1.67, 1.94, 2.21; 38, 38.9, 36.4), and his velocity has been fairly constant.
That's not to say this is a horrific deal otherwise (though I'm skeptical this deal, as defined by Speier, actually exists). Two solid position player prospects and a decent starter prospect is a lot to pay for a reliever, regardless of how good that reliever is.
well, people wanted DD to blow up the farm system, here we go. I'm not impressed, and not looking forward to it. What are they going to give up for a starter?
Come on. "Already declining"? He's declined from insanely great to just very great. His velocity has not gotten worse. His K rate and BB rate have not gotten worse. He's not suddenly giving up more line drives or hard hit balls.
It's a pretty big overpay. Should have cost Margot and one other lesser if that. Trading Guerra and Allen on top is not a good use of resources.
I understand the reluctance in trading away prospects, but isn't this exactly the kind of guy we want the Sox to go grab? I mean, Kimbrel is an ELITE closer who fills a huge hole on the roster. He has eye popping stats, is only 27 years old, and is signed for a few years. It was fun watching the young players play above average baseball for a few months last year, but I want to be watching October playoff baseball with this team and today's trade makes that a little more likely.
Wow, I really didn't think it'd take anywhere near that price to land Kimbrel. The Padres were motivated sellers, if the rumors were to be believed. The Globe's constant drum-beating to trade all the prospects was making me nervous already, this only worsens things. But as I posted earlier, I have no concerns about Kimbrel. He's a much better return than Chapman in his walk year.
I want to win the division by doing things like trading for a SP with my top prospects, not unloading two of my top 5 guys for a RP (albeit a good one) who throws 60 IP a year.
Ok, since this is being reported as final I'd say this is the single worst trade of the last several years. I hated trading Reddick for Bailey. Lackey for Craig and Kelly was an absurd sell low move. This is substantially worse than both.
Benoit got two players from Seattle who are worse than Logan Allen and Carlos Asuaje. So we threw Guerra and Margot on for the performance gap between Benoit and Kimbrel over 50-70 innings, while also paying Kimbrel nearly twice Benoit's per year salary.
Unless everything prospect watchers have been saying about the perceptions of Guerra and Margot was all bullshit and those inside baseball think they're borderline MLers at best this is disheartening to say the least.
Benoit got two players from Seattle who are worse than Logan Allen and Carlos Asuaje. So we threw Guerra and Margot on for the performance gap between Benoit and Kimbrel over 50-70 innings, while also paying Kimbrel nearly twice Benoit's per year salary.
Unless everything prospect watchers have been saying about the perceptions of Guerra and Margot was all bullshit and those inside baseball think they're borderline MLers at best this is disheartening to say the least.
The optimistic take would be that the Sox think Guerra's offensive season was something of a fluke.
Margot and Guerra to pay a guy who is a 50% premium over the cost Andrew Miller. I don't really blame Dombrowski; he is who he is. This is all John Henry's.
There are better way sto win the division than giving up two of their best trade chips to acquire a reliever making pretty much market rate.
DD went through the bullpen costing him the 2013 WS and ten saw a hellacious bullpen in Boston in September. He is scarred by bad bullpens more than just about any other GM and it just showed.
He was right when he told sox fans to get ready for pain
He was right when he told sox fans to get ready for pain
mixed feelings.
i feel like the sox traded the wrong prospects - ie the underrated ones.
kimbrel is pretty sweet though.
i feel like the sox traded the wrong prospects - ie the underrated ones.
kimbrel is pretty sweet though.
So...it appears the other shoe was in fact a Shaw's Market carry bag that can conveniently be wrapped around one's foot should it rain.
Disheartening, to say the least.
Disheartening, to say the least.
There's a difference between wanting to win and signing off on bad trades because it makes the MLB squad incrementally better. The way you win is by wisely allocating your resources. Overpaying for an expensive reliever shores up one weakness at the expense of the team's ability to improve in other areas now and in the future.