Sox acquire Eric Hosmer

scottyno

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IF SD is picking up most of his salary Hosmer is a free asset. Not a great one but still with value. There shouldn’t be any difficulty flipping him when Casas is ready.

In the interim the team is better.

So what to do with Dalbec?
Hosmer has to replace Franchy, so Dalbec still has a role if he's still on the team in a few hours, at least until Devers comes back. Then after that it depends who else is still on the team, but he's probably a bat vs lefties off the bench and likely traded for peanuts in the offseason.
 

manny

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Interesting shift statistics for Hosmer - crushed the shift through 2019, owned by the shift 2020-22:


View attachment 53856
Interesting--wonder if Chaim trying to get ahead of a likely shift ban?

EDIT - I doubt Chaim really counting on Hosmer much but maybe thinking if shift does get banned he can get more for Hosmer down the road than he is paying here.
 

8slim

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I'm done with Dalbec too, but there's a conceivable chance he puts it together, and he's controlled through 2026. With Hosmer there's no upside whatsoever, and he doesn't improve the infield's defense.

Again, I'm still waiting for details.
To me, the upside is that we'll have a league-average 1B for the next 2 months. I won't pretend to be an expert on Hosner's defense, but could it really be worse than what we've experienced this year? The guy did win gold gloves earlier in his career.
 

BaseballJones

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2022 Stats...

Dalbec: .205/.279/.363/.642, 76 ops+
Franchy: .219/.298/.363/.660, 82 ops+
Hosmer: .272/.336/.391/.727, 112 ops+

I mean, we've been whining all season long about their utter disaster that has been their 1b situation. And now they get a heavily subsidized trade that plugs in a guy who's been MUCH better this year, and we're saying how horrible this is? Even knowing that it'll be pretty easy to just get rid of him should Casas be ready?
 

TheYellowDart5

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They're only even getting Hosmer because the Padres are taking on a bunch of salary. Otherwise, it would make no sense. Obviously, their plan at 1B failed due to the Casas injury this year. They need a competent 1B for the rest of the season and somebody who can fill the spot if Casas isn't ready for April 2023. You're right: if this is their idea of an impact move then it's one thing. But Hosmer certainly doesn't preclude them from doing whatever they want this offseason to retool the roster. I don't think anybody has any ideas about them contending, so this move is about getting through the rest of the season without embarrassing defense at 1B and having a placeholder in '23 in case Casas is not ready(or if they move him for an impact player).
It's worth clarifying that, yeah, Hosmer is no one's idea of an impact move (I hope), and yeah, they can (and should) be able to do better in the offseason. Maybe more of the frustration is that the front office made a mistake in assuming Dalbec and company could hold down first base, doubled down on that mistake by not acquiring outside help earlier, and are now forced to shuffle on with Eric Hosmer at first instead of someone better. It's a domino effect of disappointment — a failure to plan ahead better and an unwillingness to acquire better solutions leads to a scramble to fix the roster with imperfect, low-upside pieces. What's frustrating about Hosmer isn't so much him but the chain of events that led to him being the best option.
 

CSteinhardt

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I don't see this as a major component of any "plan". This seems to be Bloom jumping on an opportunity.

Hosner squashed going to DC and the Padres had to move him. They also are willing to eat a substantial portion of his contract. So it's kind of a no-lose for Bloom. He's an immediate upgrade to our black hole at 1B, and if he sucks we can cut him without being on the hook for much money.

Honestly, it'll surprise me if Hosner is on the roster this time next year, but it seems like there's very little downside here.
Agreed - this doesn't have to be part of a larger plan. It's adding assets to the team, and any time you can do that essentially for free, you do so because those assets will be useful later. Hosmer's not a great asset, so this isn't the sort of move you build a plan around, but it's the sort of thing you make every time it's available because those little edges add up over time.
 

ArttyG12

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And who else was available for free that improves 1B and doesn't block our almost-ready 1B prospect long term?
 

Cellar-Door

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On the one hand, sure it's an upgrade, on the other hand, if the plan is to make disasters, then hope to be praised for making the disaster into just not good... not the best plan.

It's a perfectly acceptable trade if he's basically free, but that getting him is a huge upgrade is more an indictment of all the moves that came before than some sterling endorsement of Hosmer.
 

scottyno

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On the one hand, sure it's an upgrade, on the other hand, if the plan is to make disasters, then hope to be praised for making the disaster into just not good... not the best plan.
Pretty sure if Bloom knew that Dalbec would have a .449 OPS in April, regress defensively, and that Casas would have a serious injury that took him out as an option for a midseason callup he would have signed someone else. Kind of hard to predict that.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I would rather get a prospect instead of getting Hosmer for free.
Why would the Padres give us a prospect for free? We just upgraded a position on the field for free. I don’t understand how this singular move is bad in any way.
 

jwbasham84

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But all of those moves have already happened and cannot be changed. Yes, they were questionable when they were made. I mean who really thought Travis Shaw was a good solution... That being said we have to deal with the here and now and Hosmer is an upgrade in the here and now and basically costs us nothing. It's the kind of move I hope Chaim makes every chance he gets.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Well, they didn't even know he was on the board until 2pm today. So it's more likely an opportunistic grab, as opposed to whatever Bloom was talking about doing.
Probably, but Bloom said what he said and as of right now... it's Eric Hosmer. There's still 2+ hours though.
 

nvalvo

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Why would the Padres give us a prospect for free? We just upgraded a position on the field for free. I don’t understand how this singular move is bad in any way.
He's saying he would prefer to have the deal be set up so that the Red Sox paid more of Hosmer's freight and got another player or players.

It seems as though the idea that we would get Hosmer fully paid for was just speculation by the national writers. It's not a bad move, but I think it makes somewhat less sense for the Sox that way, honestly.

edit: and here's Rosenthal...
 

cornwalls@6

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Agreed - this doesn't have to be part of a larger plan. It's adding assets to the team, and any time you can do that essentially for free, you do so because those assets will be useful later. Hosmer's not a great asset, so this isn't the sort of move you build a plan around, but it's the sort of thing you make every time it's available because those little edges add up over time.
This is fair. The questions I had were more about the timing, context, and overall strategy. Everything said here about Hosmer being a (to the Red Sox) cheap, no down side, upgrade to 1B are true. I had come to the position that the season was essentially lost, they aren't a legit contender, so they may as well begin a more aggressive sell-off/rebuild ASAP. I thought maybe CV being moved was the start of that. But the moves since don't really indicate that, which is is fine. Nothing they've done hamstrings them in the future, and if they somehow catch fire and make a run in the last 2 months, great. Given the injury situation and the number of teams they have to beat out to get back in a WC spot, I'm not too bullish on that possibility, but I'll be glad if it happens. Just clarifying my position as to why I was questioning, but by no means ripping, the moves as a whole.
 

doc

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Cellar-Door

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Why would the Padres give us a prospect for free? We just upgraded a position on the field for free. I don’t understand how this singular move is bad in any way.
I think he means he'd rather get a prospect and pay Hosmer, than get Hosmer for essentially no salary... of course, people always say that because they don't have to pay the money.

Pretty sure if Bloom knew that Dalbec would have a .449 OPS in April, regress defensively, and that Casas would have a serious injury that took him out as an option for a midseason callup he would have signed someone else. Kind of hard to predict that.
I mean,Dalbec was really bad on D last year too, and didn't have such a big track record that a poor year at the plate was totally shocking. And Casas was in AA, prospects stall or get hurt all the time. If your 1B options on the big league roster are Dalbec and Franchy... you didn't exactly set yourself up with much in the way of quality or depth at the position if you meant to be competitive.
 

LogansDad

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I like it. If nothing else, Hosmer's 14.9% K rate this years is a 20%-point improvement on Dalbec's, so maybe he can make some productive outs.
 

jezza1918

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I think he means he'd rather get a prospect and pay Hosmer, than get Hosmer for essentially no salary... of course, people always say that because they don't have to pay the money.


I mean,Dalbec was really bad on D last year too, and didn't have such a big track record that a poor year at the plate was totally shocking. And Casas was in AA, prospects stall or get hurt all the time. If your 1B options on the big league roster are Dalbec and Franchy... you didn't exactly set yourself up with much in the way of quality or depth at the position if you meant to be competitive.
But you need younger, cost controlled guys producing at the major league level. And based on Dalbecs progress at the plate last year, as well as at 1b (IIRC he was better post ASB, but I admit I cant find the #s to back that up)...I think it was a reasonable gamble* to assume that you could get league average production from him this season. Furthermore, based on Casas' trajectory...they were never going to make a splash signing at first base.

*I used the word 'gamble' intentionally here, because that's exactly what all these moves are. When they work out, awesomesauce. When they don't, well we get really effing annoyed. So I always go back to how I feel at the start of some move/trade/plan/acquisition. And again, I think this gamble had rationale behind it.
 

Cellar-Door

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But you need younger, cost controlled guys producing at the major league level. And based on Dalbecs progress at the plate last year, as well as at 1b (IIRC he was better post ASB, but I admit I cant find the #s to back that up)...I think it was a reasonable gamble* to assume that you could get league average production from him this season. Furthermore, based on Casas' trajectory...they were never going to make a splash signing at first base.

*I used the word 'gamble' intentionally here, because that's exactly what all these moves are. When they work out, awesomesauce. When they don't, well we get really effing annoyed. So I always go back to how I feel at the start of some move/trade/plan/acquisition. And again, I think this gamble had rationale behind it.
I feel like there is a massive gulf between "splash signing" and "Franchy can play 1st if anything happens with Dalbec and/or Casas"
 

JM3

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I assume this means that if Hosmer's salary is the difference between getting under the threshold or not, they'll let the Padres pay for him, & if it's not they'll buy some prospects.

Seems like a good piece of flexibility with a couple hours to go.
 

jezza1918

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I feel like there is a massive gulf between "splash signing" and "Franchy can play 1st if anything happens with Dalbec and/or Casas"
Fair...and Travis Shaw fell right into that gulf.

edit: I'll add actual content. I agree with your point, but I just don't think you can account for depth all over the place. They had a guy who at 26, in his first full season, hit .269 and OPS'd .955 with 15 homers, and showed better plate discipline over the last 60 games of the season. With a top prospect seemingly on deck (that's super tacky phrasing, i know). They gave it 4 months to play out, it didn't work...Hosmer is here for that massive gulf?
 

nvalvo

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I like Speier, but this seems exactly wrong to me. If we're going over the threshold, the imperative to move departing FA increases, not declines, because the value of our compensation pick falls.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Phillies are interested in Eovaldi and Hill according to the trade deadline thread in the MLB forum.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I like Speier, but this seems exactly wrong to me. If we're going over the threshold, the imperative to move departing FA increases, not declines, because the value of our compensation pick falls.
And if they can add better talent than a pick going over?
 

chawson

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To me, the upside is that we'll have a league-average 1B for the next 2 months. I won't pretend to be an expert on Hosner's defense, but could it really be worse than what we've experienced this year? The guy did win gold gloves earlier in his career.
He's not a league-average first baseman. His 107 wRC (per Fangraphs) is 20th of 28 qualified first basemen. His OAA the last two seasons is 21st of 32.

There are several well researched articles about how much of a disaster Eric Hosmer is. Here's one.

Since he signed his contract with the Padres in 2018, Hosmer...
- has the 4th highest ground ball rate
- is the 4th worst baserunner (per Fangraphs)
- is dead last among first basemen in outs above average (-24)

He is also now the second-slowest runner on the Red Sox by sprint speed (slower than JDM, slightly faster than Plawecki).

Well here is something maybe positive, Hosmer pulls ground balls, but most of his fly balls are opposite field.

Here is his spray chart in 2017 superimposed over Fenway
View: https://medium.com/@matthartzell/the-curious-case-of-eric-hosmer-c5faa2084c3d


Here is his his spray chart in 2022, the trend looks the same, grounders to the right, fly balls to the left.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/eric-hosmer/3516/spray-charts?position=1B&type=battedball

Time will tell
That article was written after his career year in 2017, when he hit the ball to the opposite field more than ever before or since. He had a 1.422 OPS that year in fly balls hit to the opposite field (64 BBE). Since then he's had a .793 OPS on those (190 BBE).
 

Rasputin

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2022 Stats...

Dalbec: .205/.279/.363/.642, 76 ops+
Franchy: .219/.298/.363/.660, 82 ops+
Hosmer: .272/.336/.391/.727, 112 ops+

I mean, we've been whining all season long about their utter disaster that has been their 1b situation. And now they get a heavily subsidized trade that plugs in a guy who's been MUCH better this year, and we're saying how horrible this is? Even knowing that it'll be pretty easy to just get rid of him should Casas be ready?
Yeah, I don't get the negativity around the trade. Our first base situation sucked. It's now better with a guy under control for three years who can easily be jettisoned when Casas is deemed ready. It's exactly the kind of move you'd want to make in this situation.
 

scottyno

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I mean,Dalbec was really bad on D last year too, and didn't have such a big track record that a poor year at the plate was totally shocking. And Casas was in AA, prospects stall or get hurt all the time. If your 1B options on the big league roster are Dalbec and Franchy... you didn't exactly set yourself up with much in the way of quality or depth at the position if you meant to be competitive.
He was much better defensively to end the year last year, and to start the year this year. When that article was written in mid june about the improved Sox infield defense he had a DRS of roughly 0 (league average) Now he's at -5 and was on pace to end up worse than last year.

And yeah I'd say him hitting like a pitcher for a month was pretty shocking. How he's hit since then isn't that shocking, worse than last year but not that much worse.
 

LoLsapien

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Could have signed Travis Shaw again, people would have loved that
SoSH really needs to bring back the sandbox. All the garbage posts from lurkers like myself are dragging down the discourse and even good posters are treating this board like a gamethread.

Last year the Red Sox had the 6th best offense in baseball by WRC+. The biggest piece they lost in the off-season was Renfroe, who folks on this board were criticizing for his defense (-6 FG def adjustment, almost equal to his 7.3 FG off adjustment). Posters were trying to determine how long of a contract extension we should give Kike now that he'd blossomed into one of the best CFers in baseball (4.1 fwar with a completely reasonable .278 babip). Bobby D was showing signs last year that he could be a boom/bust average hitting (107 WRC+) hold-over to a surging Casas, who had discovered his power, with highlight reel HR blasts, whom noone wanted to block with a big investment in the position (seriously, take a bow if you thought we should sign a Big Time Free Agent for 1B) in the off season. Oh yeah, and we added Trevor Story, a guy who put up 2fwar in 2020 in basically half the at-bats that Renfroe had in 2021, and whose 2021 was married by an injury induced 60 point drop in babip.

Sox had the 6th best pitching fWar last year and the only pitchers with 1 fwar that we lost were Garrett Richards and (pour out a drink for) Eddy Rodriguez.

The post by Soxhop411 in which he acknowledged that winning moves are usually not recognized when they happen is sublime. We have a creative GM that's trying to win around the edges while building a farm system. The plan is pretty obvious if you open your eyes.

But it's so, so difficult to sort through all the shit-posts right now. It's really brutal.
 

richgedman'sghost

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Any reason to think that Hosmer will benefit Casas (as a mentor)?
Well they both went to the same high school in Florida and have worked out together in the off season so I'd say the chances are good that Hosmer continues his mentoring role to Casas.
 

brandonchristensen

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It's this years Schwarber, only he can slot in immediately and 'help' the club. Back when the Sox signed JD, he was the other guy that was being bandied about.
 

Cellar-Door

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He was much better defensively to end the year last year, and to start the year this year. When that article was written in mid june about the improved Sox infield defense he had a DRS of roughly 0 (league average) Now he's at -5 and was on pace to end up worse than last year.

And yeah I'd say him hitting like a pitcher for a month was pretty shocking. How he's hit since then isn't that shocking, worse than last year but not that much worse.
I think the point is.... why would you start the season giving yourself no wiggle room. What if the two were flipped, and Dalbec gets hurt while Casas struggles in AAA (not exactly unheard of)... you're playing Franchy.

Going into a season assuming a guy who has like half a season of decent play will be a no doubt everyday guy for at least half the season, and that your prospect will rocket up from AAA, and neither will struggle or get hurt....that's bad planning for a team of the Red Sox's resources. Maybe you have to take that gamble if you have a $40M payroll, but we don't. My objection isn't that they should have predicted everything... it's that if you create a plan where you don't have a single proven MLB quality 1B on the roster... or if we're being generous to Dalbec, you have ONE MLB quality proven 1B on the roster... you're setting yourself up for failure. Guys have slumps, guys get hurt, that;s the whole reason for the big rosters in MLB.
 

Ganthem

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SoSH really needs to bring back the sandbox. All the garbage posts from lurkers like myself are dragging down the discourse and even good posters are treating this board like a gamethread.

Last year the Red Sox had the 6th best offense in baseball by WRC+. The biggest piece they lost in the off-season was Renfroe, who folks on this board were criticizing for his defense (-6 FG def adjustment, almost equal to his 7.3 FG off adjustment). Posters were trying to determine how long of a contract extension we should give Kike now that he'd blossomed into one of the best CFers in baseball (4.1 fwar with a completely reasonable .278 babip). Bobby D was showing signs last year that he could be a boom/bust average hitting (107 WRC+) hold-over to a surging Casas, who had discovered his power, with highlight reel HR blasts, whom noone wanted to block with a big investment in the position (seriously, take a bow if you thought we should sign a Big Time Free Agent for 1B) in the off season. Oh yeah, and we added Trevor Story, a guy who put up 2fwar in 2020 in basically half the at-bats that Renfroe had in 2021, and whose 2021 was married by an injury induced 60 point drop in babip.

Sox had the 6th best pitching fWar last year and the only pitchers with 1 fwar that we lost were Garrett Richards and (pour out a drink for) Eddy Rodriguez.

The post by Soxhop411 in which he acknowledged that winning moves are usually not recognized when they happen is sublime. We have a creative GM that's trying to win around the edges while building a farm system. The plan is pretty obvious if you open your eyes.

But it's so, so difficult to sort through all the shit-posts right now. It's really brutal.
Amen
 

ArttyG12

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I think the point is.... why would you start the season giving yourself no wiggle room. What if the two were flipped, and Dalbec gets hurt while Casas struggles in AAA (not exactly unheard of)... you're playing Franchy.

Going into a season assuming a guy who has like half a season of decent play will be a no doubt everyday guy for at least half the season, and that your prospect will rocket up from AAA, and neither will struggle or get hurt....that's bad planning for a team of the Red Sox's resources. Maybe you have to take that gamble if you have a $40M payroll, but we don't. My objection isn't that they should have predicted everything... it's that if you create a plan where you don't have a single proven MLB quality 1B on the roster... or if we're being generous to Dalbec, you have ONE MLB quality proven 1B on the roster... you're setting yourself up for failure. Guys have slumps, guys get hurt, that;s the whole reason for the big rosters in MLB.
Who is this player? Who was available for a short term contract that was worth jettisoning Dalbec, or for short money that would be a good fallback for Dalbec but is better than Franchy?
 

KillerBs

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Yes obviously not getting a fall back/platoon option for Dalbec was a serious error in roster construction, which was apparent from the outset, almost as obvious as not having a right handed hitting OFer to platoon/supplant JBJ. We went into the season with an Arroyo JBJ platoon pencilled into RF. Interesting that with Pham and Hosmer, Bloom has now addressed these needs but seemingly too late and in away that strains credulity, at least for now.