Sox 2015 payroll

[KillerBs]

According to Cots, the Sox are at 156m for 2014 payroll, up 2m from 154m in 2013, down from 175m in 2012 (164m in 2011; 168m in 2010).
 
Thus, though not widely discussed, not only did the FO put together the WS champs last year, they shaved 20m off the payroll in the process. Hopefully that was good for a healthy year end bonus.
 
Cots has the 2015 payroll obligations at 79m, for 8 guys: Napoli, Pedroia, Victorino, Ortiz, Buchholz, Lackey, Breslow and Mujica. With these 8 signed, and the pre FA kids, the Sox could field a 2015 team next year something along these lines:
 
C    Vazquez + Swihart or short term vet placeholder
1b   Napoli
2b   Pedroia
3b   Holt + WMB +/- Cecchini
SS   Bogaerts
LF   Betts + Nava
CF  Bradley
RF  Victorino
DH  Ortiz
 
SP   Lackey
SP   Buchholz
SP   Workrman
SP   DeLaRosa
SP   Webster or Ranaudo or Owens or Doubront or Wright
 
RP   Tazawa
RP   Breslow
RP   Mujica
RP   Fill in from the guys who lost the 5th starter job.
 
I am guessing that the 17 guys without 2015 contracts now (some of whom are arb eligible) won't cost more than around 12m as group.
 
In the face of this, I see 3 broad general options:
 
Field a potentially competitive team for approx $91 million, i.e. a stunning one year drop in payroll of $65 million or 40% or so. This would put us around 20 out of 30 teams -- in the range of the Chisox, Padres and Royals.
 
Or they could supplement the group above with some shorter term Victorino/Napoli type deals for a SP (eg Masterson or Iwakuma) and another OFer (eg Willingham, Denorfia, Melky, N. Cruz), and still comfortably get under 130m.   
 
Alternatively, they could spend 40m on Lester, Koji and Miller in 2015, and another 16-18m on let's say Markakis. still lower the payroll, retain the adored veteran stars, and be prohibitive AL East favourites in 2015 and beyond.
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

[RedOctober3829]

That team would be on the same pace as this year's team: 75-80 wins.  They need to either retain Lester or go get a pitcher of his caliber.  They'd need to upgrade the back of the bullpen by keeping Uehara or someone of his caliber.  That lineup has very, very little power which is a problem.  The Red Sox should never have a payroll the size of the Royals or the Padres.  I'd expect them to try to make significant upgrades to the roster for 2015.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

This could probably go somewhere else but, when is it time to cut bait on Victorino? Can we really rely on him next year to not break down like this year?

Betts has way too good of an arm for LF and once he gets more experience he could turn into an asset in right. I hope they go after Tomas for LF, start him in AAA and bring him up if he's hitting well. An outfield of Tomas, Bradley, Betts left to right would be great defensively and possibly awesome offensively if JBJ gets out of this funk. Nava would be the 4th OFer. Betts backs up Bradley and Nava backs up the corners.

The IF should be WMB, X, Pedey and Nap with Holt remaining as super sub. Holt can back up anyone, even in the OF which is why I think he's most valuable as a Super UT. Longshot, but maybe Marrero finishes the year in AAA and takes over at SS in 2015 which would unfortunately make WMB expendable (as much as I hate to say it.) Vazquez gets the nod at catcher with someone outside of the org as backup. I don't think Butler can handle the majors and Swihart still needs some time.

Add one more back up and there's your lineup:

C - Vaz
1B - Nap
2B - Pedey
SS - X/Marrero
3B - WMB/X
LF - Tomas
CF - JBJ
RF - Betts
DH - Ortiz

Holt
Nava
Backup C
???

Pitching staff. First things first is retaining Lester. He's a stud. Lackey has proven to be a solid #2/1A. After that its a toss up. What is Buchholz going to do? Can Workman, de la Rosa, Webster or Doubront go a full season? Can Ranaudo, Wright, Barnes or Owens jump into the picture? Locking down Lester assures the Sox at least a solid one-two punch with a metric fuckton of inexpensive talent to battle out for the other three spots. The losers go to the pen.

The bullpen. Koji and Miller should be retained as closer and secondary setup respectively. Taz stays as primary setup. Breslow as a loogy and Mujica as another option leaves 2 other pieces which should be easy to fill with the glutton of pitching the Sox have.

Pitching

SP - Lester
SP - Lackey
SP - Buchholz
SP - de la Rosa
SP - Workman

CL - Koji
RP - Taz
RP - Miller
RP - Breslow
RP - Mujica
RP - ??
RP - ??

So, the way I see it they should spend on Lester, Tomas, Koji, Miller and a backup C. This should put them still under the luxury tax with some extra to spend to fill holes as needed. Getting out of Vic's money would be beneficial.

Edit: Forgot the Large Father...

 

[KillerBs]

Without shedding Vic's $$, they could resign Lester, Koji and Miller for a combined 40M for next year and still reduce the pay roll by 25m.
 
Can't imagine they could dump Victorino in any event, and he would be a good fit with this group, if healthy.

 

[plucy]

There's a poster at OTM who maintains a good spreadsheet on Sox payroll, actual and AAV. He has them at 92.5M next year, including Dodger Dollars, 40 man, and benefits. Arb looks reasonable, around 10-12M. Breslow and Lackey, 4.5M. So they theoretically have about 80M in AAV for FA's. And all those prospects who are or near MLB ready.

 

[snowmanny]

According to Cots, the Sox are at 156m for 2014 payroll, up 2m from 154m in 2013, down from 175m in 2012 (164m in 2011; 168m in 2010).
 
Thus, though not widely discussed, not only did the FO put together the WS champs last year, they shaved 20m off the payroll in the process. Hopefully that was good for a healthy year end bonus.
 
 

The Red Sox payroll last year was just a whisker (or half a whisker) under the luxury tax threshold of $178,000,000.

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/9/11/4719062/mlb-yankees-dodgers-luxury-tax-2013-penalty

 

[circus catch]

Count me in the small camp of looking for other options if Lester is going to be 5+ years at 20+ mil a year, which I think he is. I might give that to Kershaw, or Felix, or anyone else I saw as a durable hall of fame candidate, but Lester isn't it. There are going to be a bunch of starters available in free agency and I would much rather make a mistake overpaying someone for 4 years and 70 than 5 and 110, and don't count out the possibility of someone else going six years. Lester's great performance against the MFY? That was as much an audition as a rivalry.
 
And the Sox HAVE TO find another outfield bat. I can be patient with JBJ in centerfield because of that gold glove he will soon win, but the other two corners are a real problem. Betts is unlikely to be a true answer, because he lacks power. To stick with eating the sacred cows, I've got no problem putting Pedroia in a deal to get a corner bat, and putting Betts at 2nd.  His team-friendly contract doesn't look so friendly if his OPS drops for the third year in a row and there's a legitimate option to play second.   Now, I'm not saying we absolutely must deal him, just that its an option in that we have lots of young infielders. If you want to pay someone like Cruz, that's an option too, or you could deal some of the young talent for an outfielder. Just whatever it takes, find a corner outfielder.

 

[MakMan44]

Count me in the small camp of looking for other options if Lester is going to be 5+ years at 20+ mil a year, which I think he is. I might give that to Kershaw, or Felix, or anyone else I saw as a durable hall of fame candidate, but Lester isn't it. There are going to be a bunch of starters available in free agency and I would much rather make a mistake overpaying someone for 4 years and 70 than 5 and 110, and don't count out the possibility of someone else going six years. Lester's great performance against the MFY? That was as much an audition as a rivalry.

Please name one of these candidates then. Cueto? Probably going to cost more than Lester. Shields? 2 years older than Lester and is already declining this season. Masterson? Maybe he's cheaper but his results up and down from year to year. Outside of 2012 (and really, he pitched better than his ERA), Lester has been durable and dependable. Thinking that you can spend less and still replicate his numbers, or come close to it, isn't happening and it needs to be pointed out. 

 

[In my lifetime]

With all the young pre-arb talent moving to the team this year and next, I believe the RS are in an excellent position budget-wise .  Even if these pre-arb players are just league average, they are incredibly valuable at their salaries.  I believe the RS budget with current ownership will remain just under the luxury tax threshold. As such, the RS should be able to supplement the pre-arb talent with premium free agents on high annual salary, for reasonable years (3 yrs being ideal).  
 
The team needs
1) an Ace or a solid 2 - whether this is Lester or another top of the rotation starter at ~ 22M - 25M/yr
2) A premier power hitter - ideally at a corner OF position, which will probably cost another 16-25m per yr.
Then the RS can deal with less than average hitting from a C, and CF
 
Those 2 needs will take up the vast majority of the projected budget (40+M annually). Of course, as they have already found out how painful it can be if they miss on these high end acquisitions. And most premier free agents will want 5+ year deals.  
 
The other way to go is to add 3 2nd tier free agants players at 13-16M x 3 yrs as they did prior to the 2013 season.
 
More than likely, depending on the actual market, I think the RS will combine both approaches:
1) An Ace at 20-25 x 5 yrs
2) 2 corner OFers or a corner OF and a Catcher at 15M x 3 yrs, depending on availability

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Without shedding Vic's $$, they could resign Lester, Koji and Miller for a combined 40M for next year and still reduce the pay roll by 25m.
 
Can't imagine they could dump Victorino in any event, and he would be a good fit with this group, if healthy.

In my scenario Vic is a fourth or fifth OFer. Is he going to get more playing time than Bradley or Betts? Maybe he could platoon LF with Nava until Tomas comes up?

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I agree that a Lester extension would be the logical move, but it's kind of a false choice to say it's either him or turning to the FA market for a quality SP. There is also the trade market. Pure speculation based on contract dollars, teams, etc., but a quick look around the league reveals a few pre-FA possibilities, like Mat Latos (FA after 2015) or Andrew Cashner (FA after 2016). 
 
This is pure Crazyville (and, obviously, not pitching), but I've found myself wondering if Atlanta would be willing to sell on Jason Heyward.
 
EDIT: I should note also that I'm not necessarily endorsing either Latos or Cashner, just saying that they might be out there at some point in the next few months. And obviously the team could re-sign Lester and make a move for an additional starter.

 

[MakMan44]

That's a fair point but it requires you give up further assets to acquire those players in an effort to replace Lester, which is another point in Lester's favor. 

 

[Bone Chips]

When it comes to discussions about the Red Sox and payroll these days, I'm really only concerned with one thing - that they spend right up to the luxury tax threshold. I don't care much how they do it. I trust that Ben and the ownership group wiill spend the money wisely.

But they can't suddenly change their business model and skimp on payroll. Their ticket prices are the highest in baseball and by all accounts they are minting money. I don't think they'll drop out of the top 5 in team salaries, but their seeming unwillingness to be a player anymore for top tier free agents has me concerned, and wondering how and where they'll dole out the money.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

When it comes to discussions about the Red Sox and payroll these days, I'm really only concerned with one thing - that they spend right up to the luxury tax threshold. I don't care much how they do it. I trust that Ben and the ownership group wiill spend the money wisely.

But they can't suddenly change their business model and skimp on payroll. Their ticket prices are the highest in baseball and by all accounts they are minting money. I don't think they'll drop out of the top 5 in team salaries, but their seeming unwillingness to be a player anymore for top tier free agents has me concerned, and wondering how and where they'll dole out the money.

 
I couldn't possibly give less of a shit how much money they spend on payroll. I do give a shit whether they acquire the best players they can possibly afford, within the context of a long-term plan that allows them to field a championship-caliber team as consistently as possible. That may mean spending a lot of money, or not. It may mean spending a lot of money some years and not others. I don't care. Just give me an awesome team to watch that's in the hunt for the playoffs nearly every year. Spend as much as you have to in order to do that. No more, no less.

 

[Niastri]

Thus, though not widely discussed, not only did the FO put together the WS champs last year, they shaved 20m off the payroll in the process. Hopefully that was good for a healthy year end bonus.
 

Thanks for the end of night beer spit.

 

[Bone Chips]

 
I couldn't possibly give less of a shit how much money they spend on payroll. I do give a shit whether they acquire the best players they can possibly afford, within the context of a long-term plan that allows them to field a championship-caliber team as consistently as possible. That may mean spending a lot of money, or not. It may mean spending a lot of money some years and not others. I don't care. Just give me an awesome team to watch that's in the hunt for the playoffs nearly every year. Spend as much as you have to in order to do that. No more, no less.

I wouldn't have a problem with that if tickets prices fluctuated accordingly. But as we all know ticket prices only move in one direction.

The Red Sox have been a top 5 payroll team in each of the last 10 seasons and the results have been wildly successful. In the three years they won Championships their end of year payrolls were ranked 3, 2 and 2. And as much as we want to believe that payroll doesn't matter, in the past 10 years there hasn't been a World Series champion with a payroll ranking lower than 13.

 

[SoxLegacy]

I think (and hope) that the Sox  do end up signing Lester as the 'Ace' that In my Lifetime suggested, but a quick look through the free agents list is rather underwhelming....Michael Cuddyer and Nick Markakis are probably two of the best FA's, but Markakis is going to be looking for a big payday and I am not sure he's worth it--very up and down and not a lot of power, while Cuddyer will be 35 and away from Coors Field and will be on the mend from a fractured shoulder socket (ouch!). My guess is that some of the AAA pitching and a bat will get dealt for someone, though not anyone named Dunn or Stanton.  

 

[Plympton91]

With the payroll as low as it is for 2015 and 2016, plus their willingness recently to pay premiums for set up men, I hope they don't try to cheap out on Miller. To me, after Lester, he's the most important pending FA to get inked. As a healthy, productive lefty he'll take at least a 4 year deal at $5 million a year or more. That's comparable to the deals that Downs and Affeltt got years ago, so it's possible the price will be up another million or mil and a half a year. That would be money well spent I think.