SOSH Real Fantasy Draft 2014: Draft Order, Rules, and Draft Thread
- Thread starter Scoops Bolling
- Start date
Yeah, except for the fact that Stubbs is 7 years younger, plays a completely different position, has a career wRC+ vs. LHP that is 37 points higher, and is a much better baserunner, sure. Extremely apt.Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
Both Stubbs and Travis have 6-letter last names ending with 's'
So, there's that.
The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
I don't really care what the age difference is, it's actually kind of sad that Stubbs is 7 years younger and is virtually [REDACTED]. Stubbs is a better baserunner, I'll give you that. Last year their OPS, wOBA, wRC+ and BABIP were nearly identical. The fact that Stubbs is an OF sub and [REDACTED] is mainly IF doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot. Their career numbers don't mean much either when you're talking about who the players are now. Right now. They're almost identical.
Where he plays in reality is entirely inconsequential to this exercise. You drafted him, which means he's playing in the MLB in our universe. Period. He doesn't get a single at bat of minor league seasoning ever again, he's playing in the MLB, and he's sitting on the bench most of the time, so he's not even going to get anything approaching regular at bats to try and get acclimated to the MLB. He's fucked.Galway Sox Fan said:
This is correct. Your 25 picks are your 25 man roster, with 3 "reserves" basically being injury replacements.The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
The next four years are irrelevant because he has to contribute NOW. He will not get any opportunity in this draft universe to improve or progress against minor league pitching. You're playing him once a week and pinch hitting him...compared to reality where he will play every day against lower skilled players, allowing him to slowly progress and acclimate. And it's worse because...Galway Sox Fan said:
Guys like Kyle Crick you can just throw in the bullpen, and hope that 40 IP of relative garbage ball helps them acclimate. Is it a good strategy? No, not really, but its at least a believable one. They have great stuff, so if you play them in low leverage they won't kill you now, and maybe, just maybe it won't ruin their progression. It's at least defensible..unlike a 2B who is neither a defensive wiz, a speed demon, nor an elite bat, and hence has no reserve role that he can provide value in immediately.The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
Wrong. Aaron Sanchez is playing in the MLB. The reserve slots are injury replacements, nothing more. You don't get any minor league positions. Everyone you draft is playing in the MLB.Logglobo Vlandignorf said:
Galway Sox Fan said:
This is just wrong. First, there is no minor league option for anyone taken in this draft. Travis is on the 25 man roster, he's playing in the MLB, and the MLB only going forward in this draft universe. He never gets to see the minors again. Secondly, most of the minor league picks are defensible. Let's take Vazquez. Is his bat ready? No, almost certainly not. However, he's probably an above average defensive catcher right now, perhaps well above average. He could almost certainly be a backup catcher immediately with that skill set, and he'll get some ABs. Sure he'd probably be better off in the minors getting everyday ABs, but he provides a skillset in his defense that is immediately useful, and given he's already proven himself capable of handling a full season of AA pitching, his bat doesn't need as much seasoning as a guy like Travis who has a total of 214 ABs above Low A! There's similar rationale for most of the pitchers taken, as I explained above with Crick, as you can argue that their stuff will play up in the bullpen and that they can handle some low leverage innings and maybe an occasional spot start.Galway Sox Fan said:
In sum, Travis is one of the least experienced players taken, he has no MLB skillset that would allow him to contribute immediately, and he's more in need of additional minor league seasoning than almost anyone else taken because of that fact...he simply shouldn't have been taken in this draft. To reiterate, if the Tigers farm didn't suck, he would never have stood a chance of being drafted.
Pfffff....terrisus said:
If it's not already clear, I really don't like people taking these young guys who have no business playing in the MLB. I've criticized a few picks already for it (Travis is far from the first one I've made this same argument about), and I'm just going to get more vocal as this goes on. So let me state it this way:
For this draft, everyone you pick is playing in the MLB next year, and every year thereafter. You must plan on these guys never playing in another game of minor league baseball again. You are throwing them straight in the fire. If you can't come up with a good reason why your pick could survive at the MLB level and produce something of value, then be prepared to explain how they aren't going to be a sub-replacement level player...because that's how I'll evaluate them.
For this draft, everyone you pick is playing in the MLB next year, and every year thereafter. You must plan on these guys never playing in another game of minor league baseball again. You are throwing them straight in the fire. If you can't come up with a good reason why your pick could survive at the MLB level and produce something of value, then be prepared to explain how they aren't going to be a sub-replacement level player...because that's how I'll evaluate them.
Would you also say Mike Carp is one of the best twenty or so hitters in baseball? Now. I mean right now. Right now.Eck said:
There's one player I was considering taking, despite him being uber-young and not having ML experience, and I still may, because he has a particular tool that is near ML ready and he could be eased into his role over the next few years.
BUT, that would also start the Arb clock and I don't want to waste his pre-arb years developing him.
I selected Cole and Bradley because their stuff is good and they can refine at the ML level just as well as the mL and I tried to assemble a good defensive team to help my young SP out.
There's always a give/take when it comes to getting young players to the majors and you have to know if pulling the trigger will seriously hinder their development (Wily Mo) or if they'll excel even if they struggle first (Pedroia).
BUT, that would also start the Arb clock and I don't want to waste his pre-arb years developing him.
I selected Cole and Bradley because their stuff is good and they can refine at the ML level just as well as the mL and I tried to assemble a good defensive team to help my young SP out.
There's always a give/take when it comes to getting young players to the majors and you have to know if pulling the trigger will seriously hinder their development (Wily Mo) or if they'll excel even if they struggle first (Pedroia).
My point is that last season's numbers, particularly for a part-time player with a long track record, don't tell anything close to the whole story of what kind of player he is now (no matter how many times you type the word "now").Eck said:
Edit: and, of course, by the same "logic" whereby [REDACTED] and Stubbs are the same player (applied a bit better in this case), Mike Carp is one of the best twenty-five hitters in baseball.
Scoops Bolling said:
OK, cool. This was an honest misunderstanding on my part - I thought it was an intentional ambiguity like the contract situation - so thanks for clarifying.
I still feel pretty good about starting Sanchez in the majors. He's more than held his own in Spring Training, and it's looking likely the Jays will call him up at some point this season. I'd plan on keeping him stretched out, throwing scheduled long relief, and maybe even taking a start or two from Iwakuma at the beginning of the year to test the waters.
Plus, I can always start Sanchez against Mak's team to get some mL experience (rimshot) (just kidding Mak your team has a bold and respectable strategy that enriches the discussion surrounding this thought experiment).
The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
Geez... I typed it twice. Seriously man. Take it down a notch. I honestly wasn't trying to be a dick.
I'm pretty sure when looking at a players performance, what they did last year should be taken more seriously in context with the rest of their career. What Carp did last year is the main reason he was taken 9 rounds ago.
Stubbs isn't a good player. He's just not. We're talking about a guy who in 2012 was dead last in all of baseball in wRC+ and OBP. The fact that you want to play him in RF, where he's awful and his defense doesn't translate, makes the pick even worse.
Just a few points, then I'm probably out of this particular conversation. Hope it's raised some vaguely interesting issues though.Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
1. In 2012 about 3/4 of Stubbs's PA's were against RHP, which is a recipe for disaster. He posted numbers in line with what he's done over his career vs. LHP that year.
2. Stubbs should be just fine in RF. Where are you getting the idea that he's "awful" there? He played most of last year in right and I don't see anything in the defensive stats that suggests he's anything less than an adequate RF.
3. I don't think Stubbs is any great shakes, and his upside is pretty limited, but he's a useful player when you use him correctly, and a very good fit for my team. As I said, I'll platoon him with Parra (who can't really hit LHP), and use him as a pinch runner and 3rd-string pinch hitter (if Valencia and Flores can't face the tough lefty in the later innings). He should also be adequate at any OF position. I needed someone to do these things, and didn't see any other options aside from Rajai Davis (who's a fair bit older) who fit the bill on all these points.
I've drafted three players without major league experience. I have no regrets on Springer and Heaney - they're ready for the show right now.
Owens I was probably too early on. He'll end up in the back of my bullpen this year and will probably be fine. I'd feel better about the pick if I hadn't lost Beachy and Medlen to TJS already.
Owens I was probably too early on. He'll end up in the back of my bullpen this year and will probably be fine. I'd feel better about the pick if I hadn't lost Beachy and Medlen to TJS already.
The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
This is fair enough. I just worry your expectations might be a little high offensively, especially given the fact he'll be starting 60-70 games. It's hard to predict platoons since they're starting a lot less.
Good luck with Stubby. Truce?
NJ_Sox_Fan said:Chase d'Aurnaud - PIT
Spell names right please. It fucks up the database if you spell it wrong.
Chase d'Arnaud
If this is a four year exercise then this non development arguement just does not stack up.Scoops Bolling said:
By your arguement any player who plays AAA or below in real life this year and is in any of our squads is basically written off for the puposes of this exercise.
If a player is in AAA then his team believe that he is not MLB ready so nobodys arguement here should convince us of anything different.
Also no team stands pat for 4 seasons. So picking a team of 28 players that has to remain in place for 4 years has to contain prospects that will add value in 4 years time if not not now so that a team can be competitive each year of this exercise.For me the enjoyable part of this draft was speculating how my team evolves from season to season. This certainly includes expecting player development.
Yeah I realize you're a lot more susceptible to SSS issues when a guy isn't playing that much. Still, seems like he could just as easily exceed my expectations as not live up to them, seeing that I'm just going off his career numbers (last few years weighted more heavily). But truce, yesEck'sSneakyCheese said:
@Galway, players can end up in AAA and AA for many reasons that have little to nothing to do with MLB readiness. For example, teams can hold players down due to salary/service time concerns, or because they have better options at the MLB level.
Non Development Nonsense: Yes, it does. If you take a player who isn't ready for the MLB, and throw him into it, you will screw up his development, and possibly ruin him as a player. Could Travis hypothetically develop despite not getting regular ABs, and despite facing pitching he almost certainly isn't ready to face? Maybe. Could his confidence collapse, and destroy him as a player? Maybe. But the fact of the matter is, he is way less likely to develop in any normal fashion as a bench player facing MLB pitching than he would getting regular ABs in the minors, and he's way more likely to be ruined.Galway Sox Fan said:
AAA Nonsense: Wrong. Plenty of players in AAA have the talent to play in the MLB, but don't either due to service time concerns, options, depth of the MLB club, or the fact while they're capable of playing in the MLB, they're simply better served playing every day in AAA. Hell, I drafted a guy like that myself in Baez. He probably should start in AAA. Does he have to? Probably not, he annihilated AA and he kills LHP to such an outrageous degree he could almost certainly platoon effectively. The same is true of a number of pitchers the Red Sox had in AAA last year. Just because a player is better suited to AAA doesn't mean they couldn't play in the MLB, it just means that the team may have better options, or may prefer to keep the player in the minors for other reasons.
Four Season Nonsense: Again, wrong. The point of this exercise is to draft your 25 man roster for this year, and the next few seasons. You can argue "I drafted Torii Hunter and he will probably retire after a couple seasons, so I'd be forced to find a replacement" and that's a perfectly reasonable logic. What is not reasonable for this exercise is to say "I drafted Devon Travis, and I will not expect him to play a role for the next two seasons, but despite sitting his ass on the bench that entire time I'll expect him to magically improve to the point where he's ready for a full time role at that point".
SMA had PMed me, but MakMan PMed me as well, so I guess now I should actually do something.
I'm here, mulling over sucky choices, I'll have something up within 15 minutes. If I don't, feel free to send dogs and bees after me.
I'm here, mulling over sucky choices, I'll have something up within 15 minutes. If I don't, feel free to send dogs and bees after me.
I am going to say that I did not realize that all 28 players were on the major league roster and would not get to be in the minors. When I chose Crick is was with the idea that he would develop this year and be a viable option for the rotation next year. I knew he may be called upon as an injury replacement but was hoping it was not needed. I thought a potential ace in the minors was worth more than a relief pitcher.
Ah, what the heck, I don't really like any of the options left, so I may as well just go with one of the guys I had sent in my proxy to MakMan back in the 17th round. I suppose I should be happy he's still around in the 19th round, but, meh, RP is just such a waste. Still, a whole bunch has been taken in this draft, and it's not that bad to get a guy who I had taken in the 16th round last year, who has had 40+ saves 3 of the past 4 seasons, and has had alternating years of bWARs either above 2 or below 1 - and this year would be the year for another one above 2. And, he's 34, which pretty much fits with the age of my team. Ah, could be worse.
Rafael Soriano (RP)
He's just as thrilled to be here as I am.
PMed BigMike
Rafael Soriano (RP)
He's just as thrilled to be here as I am.
PMed BigMike
I love how you guys are giving Galway so much shit for playing the game "wrong" in your eyes. Now he can play the game right and take players you want.
Frank said:
Yeah, I've been perfectly fine with so many teams taking so many minor leaguers/guys who still need time to mature - it has left more players for me.