SoSH NFL Playoff Predictions 2017

[pk1627]

PIT over MIA
HOU over OAK

NE over HOU
KC over PiT

KC over NE


SEA over DET
GB over NYG

ATL over GB
DAL over SEA

DAL over ATL


KC over Dal

 

[Dollar]

We gotta find the preseason predictions thread.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/patriots-nfl-predictions.15783/

I haven't spent a ton of time looking at the results, but I'll give the edge to Gunfighter for being the only one to put Dallas in the playoffs.

 

[jsinger121]

AFC Playoffs

Pittsburgh over Miami
Houston over Oakland

Pittsburgh over Kansas City
New England over Houston

New England over Pittsburgh

NFC Playoffs

Seattle over Detroit
Green Bay over New York

Atlanta over Seattle
Dallas over Green Bay

Dallas over Atlanta

Super Bowl

New England over Dallas

 

[H78]

AFC Playoffs

Pittsburgh over Miami
Houston over Oakland

Kansas City over Pittsburgh
New England over Houston

New England over Kansas City

NFC Playoffs

Seattle over Detroit
Green Bay over New York

Atlanta over Seattle
Green Bay over Dallas

Atlanta over Green Bay

Super Bowl

New England over Atlanta, 31-27

 

[tonyandpals]

WC:
OAK over HOU
SEA over DET
PIT over MIA
GB over NYG

Divisional:
ATL over SEA
NE over OAK
KC over PIT
GB over DAL

Conference:
GB over ATL
NE over KC

SuperBowl:
NE over GB 33 - 17

 

[tonyandpals]

if you want some skin in the game, i'm putting together a confidence pool here: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/nfl-playoff-pool.17302/

 

[bostonbeerbelly]

if you want some skin in the game, i'm putting together a confidence pool here: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/nfl-playoff-pool.17302/

Thanks Tony - looks fun.

You may also want to check your super bowl matchup in the post above.

 

[MillarTime]

Wild Card Round:
Texans over Raiders
Seahawks over Lions
Doliphins over Steelers
Packers over Giants

Divisional Round:
Falcons over Seahawks
Pats over Texans
Chiefs over Dolphins
Cowboys over Packers

Conference Championships:
Cowboys over Falcons
Pats over Chiefs

Super Bowl:
Pats over Cowboys 27-13

 

[j44thor]

PIT over MIA
HOU over OAK

PIT over KC
NE over HOU

PIT over NE (courtesy of multiple phantom PI calls)

DET over SEA
NYG over GB

ATL over NYG
DAL over DET

ATL over DAL

SB
ATL 42 over PIT 38
Julio has a historic game and is MVP

Really hope I do not match or better my record from last season.

 

[rslm]

Miami over Pittsburgh
Houston over Oakland

Green Bay over NYG
Seattle over Detroit

NE over Miami
KC over Houston

Green Bay over Dallas
Atlanta over Seattle

NE over KC
Atlanta over Green Bay

NE 34 Atlanta 21

 

[SMU_Sox]

AFC:

PIT over MIA
HOU over OAK

PIT over KC
NE over HOU

NE over PIT

NFC:

SEA over DET
GB over NYG

ATL over SEA
DAL over GB

DAL over ATL

SB
NE 34 over DAL 24
Brady has 3 TDs, 270 yards, and is MVP. NE wins the turnover margin at +2 and gets 10 points from turnovers.

Really chalky. The NFC is tough. The Giants, Dallas, Atlanta, Green Bay and Seattle all are right around each other. The only team I don't think stands a chance is Detroit.

The AFC is different. Miami, Oakland, and Houston are not going to get to the SB. That KC vs PIT rematch will be great. PIT is inconsistent. I don't think they can win 2 road games against KC and NE.

 

[Schnerres]

Round 1:
MIA@PIT: PIT wins
OAK@HOU: HOU wins

DET@SEA: SEA wins
NYG@GB: GB wins

Round 2:
PIT@KC: PIT wins
HOU@NE: NE wins

SEA@ATL: ATL wins
GB@DAL: DAL wins

Round 3:
KC@NE: NE wins

ATL@DAL: ATL wins

Round 4:
ATL@NE: NE wins 34-24

Edit: (only change: ATL beats GB, instead of beating DAL)
Round 3:
KC@NE: NE wins

GB@ATL: ATL wins

Round 4:
ATL@NE: NE wins 34-24

 

[JoePoulson]

AFC:

Round 1:
MIA @ PIT
OAK @ HOU

Round 2:
PIT @ KC
HOU @ NE

Round 3:
PIT @ NE

NFC:

Round 1:
DET @ SEA
NYG @ GB

Round 2:
SEA @ ATL
NYG @ DAL

Round 3:
ATL @ DAL

Super Bowl:
NE 34, DAL 24

 

[cwright]

AFC Wild Card
PIT over MIA
OAK over HOU

AFC Divisional
NE over OAK
PIT over KC

AFC Championship
NE over PIT

NFC Wild Card
DET over SEA
GB over NY

NFC Divisional
DAL over DET
GB over ATL

NFC Championship
DAL over GB

Super Bowl
NE over DAL (27-24)

 

[snowmanny]

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/patriots-nfl-predictions.15783/

I haven't spent a ton of time looking at the results, but I'll give the edge to Gunfighter for being the only one to put Dallas in the playoffs.

Phil Plantier went 0/8 on division winners and had Arizona beating Cincinnati in the Super Bowl. You know, that wasn't a crazy Super Bowl pick back in August.

 

[axx]

PIT over MIA
HOU over OAK (the ratings on this one might be a little low)

NE over HOU
PIT over KC

NE over PIT

SEA over DET
NYG over GB

NYG over DAL
ATL over SEA

NYG over ATL

NYG over NE (20 - 17, seems like a pretty tough road but you know what happens to Playoff Eli when the Patriots are favored like this in the AFC)

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

AFC:
PIT over MIA
OAK over HOU

PIT over KC
NE over OAK

NE over PIT


NFC:
GB over NYG
SEA over DET

DAL over GB
ATL over SEA

DAL over ATL

SB:
NE over DAL, 34-23

 

[Section15Box113]

AFC Wild Card
Houston over Oakland
Pittsburgh over Miami

NFC Wild Card
Seattle over Detroit
New York over Green Bay

AFC Divisional
New England over Houston
Kansas City over Pittsburgh

NFC Divisional
Dallas over New York
Seattle over Atlanta

Conference Championships
New England over Kansas City
Dallas over Seattle

Super Bowl LI
Dallas over New England 33-31

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Wild Card
Pitt over Mia
Oak over Hou
Sea over Det
NYG over GB

Divisional
KC over Pitt
NE over Oak
Sea over Atl
NYG over Dal

Championship
NE over KC
NYG over Sea

Super Bowl
NYG over NE

I think the winner of the GB/NYG game wins it all, but to me that game is a true coin flip.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Wild Card
Pitt over Mia
Hou over Oak
Sea over Det
NYG over GB

Divisional
KC over Pitt
NE over Hou
Atl over Sea
NYG over Dal

Championship
KC over NE
Atl over NYG

Super Bowl
Atl over KC

 

[phenweigh]

AFC Playoffs

Pittsburgh over Miami
Oakland over Houston

Kansas City over Pittsburgh
New England over Oakland

New England over Kansas City

NFC Playoffs

Seattle over Detroit
New York over Green Bay

Atlanta over Seattle
Dallas over New York

Dallas over Atlanta

Super Bowl

New England over Dallas, 30-17

 

[DanoooME]

AFC

Pittsburgh over Miami
Oakland over Houston

Kansas City over Pittsburgh
New England over Oakland

Kansas City over New England

NFC

Seattle over Detroit
NY Giants over Green Bay

Seattle over Atlanta
NY Giants over Dallas

Seattle over NY Giants

Super Bowl LI

Seattle over Kansas City 31-7

 

[pokey_reese]

AFC
PIT over MIA
OAK over HOU (I think Houston is generally bad, and the QB thing just makes them even there)

PIT over KC (This one is super close in my mind, but PIT just has to limit ST mistakes to win with their stars)
NE over OAK

NE over PIT (Home field matters in a close game, but I think that New England is superior all around, win by a TD)

NFC
SEA over DET
GB over NYG (GB is too hot and too good to lose at home again to a 'meh' Giants team)

ATL over SEA (SEA is too banged up and flawed to go into ATL and beat a very good team in a dome)
DAL over GB (DAL has been consistently strong, will play at home, and can keep the ball away from Rodgers)

ATL over DAL (I just think that ATL will score too much for DAL to keep up, defense will do just enough to stop a rookie QB from taking over the game)

Super Bowl
NE over ATL (I think it will be a close game, Pats win 34-31 or 34-27, something like that; superior team overall wins out on a neutral field if they can just not lose the turnover battle)

 

[pokey_reese]

Added everyone up with an entry so far:

WC Round
PIT: 93.8%
MIA: 6.2%

HOU: 72.1%
OAK: 27.9%

SEA: 87.7%
DET 12.3%

GB: 72.1%
NYG: 27.9%

DIV Round (number of people who had this team win their game this round)
NE: 100%
KC: 56.9%
PIT: 43.1%

ATL: 70.8%
DAL: 55.4%
GB: 27.7%
SEA: 23.1%
NYG: 20%
DET: 3.1%

Conference Championship Round (number of people who had this team win their game this round)
NE: 89.2%
KC: 7.7%
PIT: 3.1%

ATL: 33.8%
DAL: 33.8%
GB: 10.8%
SEA: 10.8%
NYG: 9.2%
DET: 1.5%

Super Bowl (percent of picks to win it all)
NE: 76.9%
NYG: 6.2%
KC: 4.6%
ATL: 4.6%
SEA: 3.1%
PIT: 1.5%
DAL: 1.5%
GB: 1.5%

edit: Either we are very biased, or the Pats are the best team ever! The NFC picture is a lot more competitive, as evidenced by the fact that no one has any of MIA, OAK, HOU winning a game after the wild card round. Looks like we as a group are collectively underrating DAL and ATL at least, and probably the rest of them aside from DET as well (though maybe overrating the NYG).

 

[SMU_Sox]

Making odds vs. individuals picking games (even on a Pats board) are two different things.

If instead of just team names imagine people see both team names and odds to win at the same time. If you see NE vs PIT as NE having a 60% chance of winning (and NE vs KC as roughly the same) won't most people logically take that 60% and NE? The narratives now suggest NE has an unusually easy path to the SB. Stats, whether advanced or normal, point to the Pats as the best team in the NFL. If people think they are the best team and the eventual AFC Champion with an edge to win the SB over any of the NFC teams (say 55% chance of winning) wouldn't a greater proportion of people pick them to win the SB? It would make sense to me for NE to be picked by a higher percentage of people to win the SB than their theoretical % to win it.
This is also a Pats site - but I'd imagine if people were voting with their heads and not their hearts then you'd see a similar but less pronounced difference.

 

[pokey_reese]

Making odds vs. individuals picking games (even on a Pats board) are two different things.

If instead of just team names imagine people see both team names and odds to win at the same time. If you see NE vs PIT as NE having a 60% chance of winning (and NE vs KC as roughly the same) won't most people logically take that 60% and NE? The narratives now suggest NE has an unusually easy path to the SB. Stats, whether advanced or normal, point to the Pats as the best team in the NFL. If people think they are the best team and the eventual AFC Champion with an edge to win the SB over any of the NFC teams (say 55% chance of winning) wouldn't a greater proportion of people pick them to win the SB? It would make sense to me for NE to be picked by a higher percentage of people to win the SB than their theoretical % to win it.
This is also a Pats site - but I'd imagine if people were voting with their heads and not their hearts then you'd see a similar but less pronounced difference.

Oh, totally agree, and I took the Pats myself. That said, if people were picking along purely probabilistic lines, then each game would have 100% of the votes, and that's where I think the bias comes in. There are almost 30% of people picking OAK over HOU, or NYG over GB, despite the odds being against them, because they have some reason to think that the underdog might win, and apply that. I think the bias is that none of us are going to do that in the Pats games, which is why they look even more skewed than probability might suggest.

That said, as I mentioned, I picked the Pats to go all the way. When I said "Either we are very biased, or the Pats are the best team ever!" I left room for it to be the latter. I just think that we are better at imagining scenarios where both teams in a game win when the Pats aren't involved. I would just imagine this same poll taking place on another site might not have over 3/4ths of the respondents taking the Pats to win the Super Bowl. That said, these 5 ESPN people unanimously picked us, sooo... http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/page/NFLInsidersPredictWildCard/predicting-2016-nfl-playoffs-bracket

 

[tonyandpals]

Thanks Tony - looks fun.

You may also want to check your super bowl matchup in the post above.

Thank you sir!

 

[Tony C]

ah, that's fun to see. starting with the conf championship round:

...

Conference Championship Round (number of people who had this team win their game this round)
NE: 89.2%
KC: 7.7%
PIT: 3.1%

ATL: 33.8%
DAL: 33.8%
GB: 10.8%
SEA: 10.8%
NYG: 9.2%
DET: 1.5%

Super Bowl (percent of picks to win it all)
NE: 76.9%
NYG: 6.2%
KC: 4.6%
ATL: 4.6%
SEA: 3.1%
PIT: 1.5%
DAL: 1.5%
GB: 1.5%

edit: Either we are very biased, or the Pats are the best team ever! The NFC picture is a lot more competitive, as evidenced by the fact that no one has any of MIA, OAK, HOU winning a game after the wild card round. Looks like we as a group are collectively underrating DAL and ATL at least, and probably the rest of them aside from DET as well (though maybe overrating the NYG).

I pretty much agree with the consensus in re favorites (leaving aside that the Pats are obviously not 90% favorites, nor 75% for the Super Bowl -- even though I think most agree -- even non-Pats' fans -- that the Pats are clear favorites, I can't imagine they win in more than 40 or 45% of simulations). I agree on the Giants having only a 10% chance or so to get thru the conf championship, and per your note on them being overrated the anomaly here is that if you fear the Giants you REALLY fear the Giants and that 10% turns into 6% chance to win the Super Bowl. I think that's more psychology than anything else -- to me the Cowboys are a clearly superior team and I'd flip with them with Giants in order of probability of winning it all, 2nd only to the Pats.

Fun stuff...

 

[mwonow]

Picks in bold

AFC:

Round 1:
6 – MIA @ 3 – PIT
5 – OAK @ 4 – HOU

Round 2:
PIT @ KC
OAK @ NE

AFCCG:
KC @ NE


NFC:

Round 1:
6 – DET @ 3 – SEA
5 – NYG @ 4 – GB

Round 2:
SEA @ ATL
GB @ DAL

NFCCG:
ATL @ DAL


Super Bowl
NE over DAL, 36-24 Just to be different, Marty B and TB12 as co-MVPs

 

[Al Zarilla]

[QUOTE="mwonow, post: 2079752, member

Super Bowl
NE over DAL, 36-24 Just to be different, Marty B and TB12 as co-MVPs[/QUOTE]
Looked it up, co-MVPs has happened once in SB history:

XII Harvey Martin & Randy White, DL, Dallas. Led Dallas defense that forced eight turnovers. Dallas 27 Denver 10.

 

[Section15Box113]

Thank you sir!

Got it - thanks, Tony!

 

[mwonow]

[QUOTE="mwonow, post: 2079752, member

Super Bowl
NE over DAL, 36-24 Just to be different, Marty B and TB12 as co-MVPs

Looked it up, co-MVPs has happened once in SB history:

XII Harvey Martin & Randy White, DL, Dallas. Led Dallas defense that forced eight turnovers. Dallas 27 Denver 10.[/QUOTE]
That's interesting, thanks! Will make for great symmetry when Dallas gets beaten by co-MVPs on the other side of the ball

 

[bagwell1]

Wild Card:
Hou over Oak
Sea over Det
Pitt over Mia
NY over GB

Division:
Sea over Atl
NE over Hou
Pitt over KC
Dal over NY

Championship:
NE over Pitt
Dal over Sea

Super Bowl
NE 38 Dal 20

 

[BusRaker]

-----------------
AFC Round 1:

3 PIT > 6 MIA
Pittsburg dominates on both sides of the ball, as Miami turns it over 3 times

5 OAK > 4 HOU
Janikowski steals the show with 4 FG from over 50 yards

AFC Round 2:

3 PIT > 2 KC
Pittsburg runs over KC, dominates possession
1 NE > 4 OAK
New England starts fast with 17 pt 1st quarter than holds two score edge rest of the way

AFC Title:

1 NE > 3 PIT
In a surprising defensive struggle, NE wins on last second field goal

---------------
NFC Round 1:

3 SEA > 6 DET
Seattle does just enough at home to thwart Lions, but lose key players to injury
4 GB > 5 NYG
Rodgers keeps promise, says "Running the table" promise included playoffs. OBJ ejected for lewd actions with kicking net after 2nd

NFC Round 2:

2 ATL > 3 SEA
On the road, beaten up Seahawks no match for Ryan and Jones
1 DAL > 4 GB
Rodgers breaks promise of "Running the Table", Zak throws for 400 yards to end Pack streak

NFC Title:

2 ATL > 1 DAL
Teams combine for over 90 points in shootout, but Bailey misses last second 52 yard field goal

Super Bowl:
2N ATL > 1A NE
"Mysterious" conditions and refereeing in Houston haunt Pats as Goodell smirks from stands

 

[estreetfan]

PIT over MIA
HOU over OAK

NE over HOU
Pitt over KC

NE over Pitt

SEA over DET
NYG over Green Bay

NYG over Dallas
Seattle over Atlanta

Seattle over Giants

New England over Seattle

 

[Grimace-HS]

Wild Card
(4) Houston over (5) Oakland
(3) Seattle over (6) Detroit
(3) Pittsburgh over (6) Miami
(4) Green Bay over (5) New York

Divisional
(3) Seattle over (2) Atlanta
(1) New England over (4) Houston
(3) Pittsburgh over (2) Kansas City
(4) Green Bay over (1) Dallas

Conference Championship
(4) Green Bay over (3) Seattle
(1) New England over (3) Pittsburgh

Super Bowl
New England over Green Bay (35-31)

 

[shoosh77]

Oak over Houston (BOB let go, coaches Jags next year)
Seattle over Lions
Pitt over Miami
GB over NYG

Pitt over KC
NE over Oak
Seattle over Atlanta
GB over Dallas

NE over Pitt
GB over Seattle

NE over GB 31 - 23 Butler picks off Hail Mary to ice it.

 

[TomTerrific]

Added everyone up with an entry so far:

WC Round

...(lots of stuff deleted)...

Super Bowl (percent of picks to win it all)
NE: 76.9%
NYG: 6.2%
KC: 4.6%
ATL: 4.6%
SEA: 3.1%
PIT: 1.5%
DAL: 1.5%
GB: 1.5%

edit: Either we are very biased, or the Pats are the best team ever! The NFC picture is a lot more competitive, as evidenced by the fact that no one has any of MIA, OAK, HOU winning a game after the wild card round. Looks like we as a group are collectively underrating DAL and ATL at least, and probably the rest of them aside from DET as well (though maybe overrating the NYG).

SI just came out with their playoff picks. I'm too tired to collate all the previous rounds, but I thought it interesting what their SB winner breakdown was:

NE: 83.3% (10/12)
NYG: 0%
KC: 0%
ATL: 8.3% (1/12)
SEA: 0%
PIT: 8.3% (1/12)
DAL: 0%
GB: 0%

And no, Peter King wasn't one of the 12. So either they're an even more pro-NE biased group like SoSH, or perhaps it's just the sensible pick.

 

[Oppo]

I'd be interested to see everyone rank the 12 teams in order of likelihood to win the SB and then combine the results. That would be more telling then 10 guys picking NE, 1 ATL, 1 PIT, zero field.

 

[Brand Name]

I'd be interested to see everyone rank the 12 teams in order of likelihood to win the SB and then combine the results. That would be more telling then 10 guys picking NE, 1 ATL, 1 PIT, zero field.

Why not bring this here? Isn't a hallmark of here to take something a basic media bit does, and make it better? In my case, from most to least likely: New England, Dallas, Atlanta, Pittsburgh*, Kansas City, Green Bay, Seattle, New York, Miami, Oakland, Houston, Detroit.

*If only because of matchups, I think KC's a better team in a vacuum.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Wild Card Round:

Houston over Oakland
Pittsburgh over Miami
Seattle over Detroit
NY Over GB

Divisional:

NE over Houston
KC over Pittsburgh
NY over Dallas
Atlanta over Seattle

CC:
NE over KC
Atlanta over NY

SB:
NE over Atlanta 38-31

 

[Section15Box113]

Game Day!

Picks are due by Game 1 kickoff at 4:30 ET.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

I'd be interested to see everyone rank the 12 teams in order of likelihood to win the SB and then combine the results. That would be more telling then 10 guys picking NE, 1 ATL, 1 PIT, zero field.

Each of the 13 - not 12, there were actually 13 - writers completed their full playoff brackets in that article...and the most amazing thing to me is that only 1 of them picked the Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl. (5 Falcons, 5 Packers, 2 Giants.) 12 of the 13 picked the Patriots to reach the Super Bowl.

Why not bring this here? Isn't a hallmark of here to take something a basic media bit does, and make it better? In my case, from most to least likely: New England, Dallas, Atlanta, Pittsburgh*, Kansas City, Green Bay, Seattle, New York, Miami, Oakland, Houston, Detroit.

I'll go with New England, Atlanta, Dallas, Green Bay, New York, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Oakland, Miami, Detroit, Houston. The NFC is wide open; I don't think New England is a prohibitive favorite by any means - for me they're more likely to not win the Super Bowl than they are to win it - but they'll probably only need to win 2 competitive games while everyone else has to win 3 or 4, and that's a huge edge in their favor.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Raiders
Seahawks
Steelers
Packers

Cowboys
Seahawks
Patriots
Chiefs

Cowboys
Patriots

Patriots: 34-23

 

[TomTerrific]

Each of the 13 - not 12, there were actually 13 - writers completed their full playoff brackets in that article...and the most amazing thing to me is that only 1 of them picked the Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl. (5 Falcons, 5 Packers, 2 Giants.) 12 of the 13 picked the Patriots to reach the Super Bowl.

That's what I thought as well when I first read it, but then I noticed that either there were 12 writers, or else SI has two writers named Ben Baskin who's thoughts and predictions are identical. I chose the former.

 

[Marbleheader]

AFC:

PIT over MIA
HOU over OAK

NE over HOU
KC over PIT

NE over KC

NFC

GB over NYG
DET over SEA

DAL over DET
ATL over GB

ATL over DAL

SB

NE over ATL 27-23

 

[fawstahcu]

Wild Card Round:
Raiders over Texans
Hawks over Lions
Steelers over Miami
Giants over Packers

Divisional Round:
Patriots over Raiders
Falcons over Seahawks
Steelers over Chiefs
Cowboys over Giants

Championship Round:
Steelers over Patriots
Cowboys over Falcons

Super Bowl LI:
Steelers 30, Cowboys 21

 

[Curt S Loew]

ConigliarosPicks

C'mon, Gunfighter is depressed enough. He has to watch them getting beat twice? Here's mine:

AFC:
PITT over MIA
HOU over OAK

PITT over KC
NE over HOU

PITT over NE

NFC:
GB over NYG
SEA over DET

DAL over GB
ATL over SEA

ATL over DAL

SB:
ATL over PITT

 

[Oppo]

In my case, from most to least likely: New England, Dallas, Atlanta, Pittsburgh*, Kansas City, Green Bay, Seattle, New York, Miami, Oakland, Houston, Detroit

NE, Dallas, Atl, KC (just by having a bye, these have to be in the top 4 for me), Pit, GB, Sea, NYG, Det, Hou, Oak, Miami.

Miami has the toughest road @Pit, @NE, @KC, SB

 

[RoyHobbs]

Wild Card
MIA over PIT
OAK over HOU
SEA over DET
GB over NYG

Divisional
NE over MIA
KC over OAK
DAL over GB
SEA over ATL

Conference
NE over KC
DAL over SEA

LI
NE over DAL