SoSH Breaks / Apr 2023 - 2022 Topps Clearly Authentic

JoePoulson

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Feb 28, 2006
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We have multiple breakers interested in 2022 Topps Clearly Authentic, so let's go ahead and make it April's choice! Here are the specifics:

Checklist

$1,723.70 shipped /19 = $91, so $97 with s/h

20 boxes in a case, one autographed card per box, in a sealed one touch.
 
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JoePoulson

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SoSH Member
Feb 28, 2006
2,755
Orlando, FL
Breakers

1. JoePoulson
2. AlNipper49
3. Traut
4. shoebooty
5. soosh77
6. heavyde050
7. Bergs
8. One Red Seat
9. deanx0
10. Oil Can Dan
11. NJ_Sox_Fan
12. Fishercat
13. tonyandpals
14. bostonbeerbelly
15. Zoidberg
16. thestardawg
17. Daven
18.
19.
20.


Always In for Baseball Card Breaks

1. JoePoulson
2. AlNipper49
3. Traut
4. soosh77
5. heavyde050
6. Bergs
7. One Red Seat
8. deanx0
9. Oil Can Dan
10. NJ_Sox_Fan
11. Fishercat
12. tonyandpals
13. thestardawg
 
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Traut

lost his degree
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Jul 20, 2005
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My Desk
What does a breaker do?

I don't remember committing to breaking but it is certainly possible as the last few months have been insane at work. I just want to make sure I can do what is expected of me.
 

JoePoulson

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SoSH Member
Feb 28, 2006
2,755
Orlando, FL
I'm just assuming you're interested in our monthly main breaks, so basically what we've been doing. Breakers nominate and vote on product to rip, pay for then eventually receive said product. SoSH subscription for baseball cards? And no worries if you don't want to be a regular, you've been super-enthusiastic so far so I assumed you were always-in for the monthly baseball.
 

Fishercat

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SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
8,266
Manchester, N.H.
So, product ideas, a mix of things discussed before and some newer things - I don't have a hard stance here, there's no product I absolutely love but none I really dislike either. Excluding things we have ripped recently.

2022 Topps Archives - 10 Boxes per Case - 24 Packs per Box - 2 Autos Per Box

This would be somewhat similar to Stadium Club except instead of focusing on photography it focuses more on throwback set designs. It's a fun, relatively inexpensive rip - even with only 20 people it's probably a bit over $50 a person and people could get multiple teams without it being too onerous. The checklist, IMO, necessitates shared team slots - there's some hitless teams and some that have one player or even just a box topper hit.

Pros: Fun throwback design, neat autograph subjects, a good variety of designs especially for old school collectors, 20 autos for this price point at the pro level isn't bad
Cons: Uneven checklist, Archives secondary market demand can be limited

2023 Topps Series 1 - Various Formats - My Recommended Would Be Jumbo (6 Boxes Per Case, 10 Packs Per Box, 1 Auto and 2 Relics per box Minimum)

This is the flagship - there's a slew of different formats but analyzing the odds, I still think Jumbo is the only way to go until that format is completely out of stock or pricing gets to a more reasonable level (I've watched enough Hobby Breaks to feel like it's a terrible idea). It's the flagship product and will pretty much always have a market - I think cost would be a bit more than Archives but there is a strong distribution of hits - I'd say our 25 entrant range is a bit more appropriate for this.

Pros: It's the flagship and will be pretty much guaranteed to have a reasonably strong market - even with massive overprinting - especially among parallels.
Cons: This was printed at very high rates and thus hitting parallels is tougher and the massive auto list can lead to some big "who" moments. Six autos in a case is easily the worst we're going to see here, and the relics are often not too impressive. I've watched and participated in a reasonable amount of Series 1 breaks and it can be a bummer if you don't get the luck.

2022 Bowman's Best - 8 Boxes Per Case, 12 Packs Per Box, 4 Autos Per Box

Best is perennially popular product and this year's version is fun - it includes all the great 2022 Rookies with potential for hits from all of them, a lot of fun color, some good insert series, and four autos per box (two per mini box and two mini boxes per box). It also has base, inserts, and autos of many of the premier prospects - which makes it one of a handful of products where you can get an Ohtani auto and an Elly De La Cruz auto in the same product. The downside is, and this is likely true in all products but feels more obvious here - some players signed more than others (and in some cases a lot more). Hitting those really exciting names is harder than it looks. Like the Red Sox have six auto subjects, but you're far more likely to hit an Eddinson Paulino or Niko Kavadas than a Marcelo Mayer or Mikey Romero for instance. Topps did a pretty good job with cases being even - it's rare that everyone gets a stinker but similarly rare to see a case just pump out huge hits like the Stadium Club one we did.

Pros: Good design, great checklist, fun rip, and Best tends to hold value reasonably well
Cons: Repeat auto subjects, cost is a bit high, a lot of the hits may not be that exciting now (as with most prospect products), doesn't hold its value as well as flaghship Bowman

2022 Topps Finest - 8 Boxes Per Case, 12 Packs Per Box, 2 Autos Per Box

This feels like the little brother of Bowman's Best this year - pros only checklist, similarish design/insert/format, half the autos. I think it's a fun rip but the value really isn't there IMO. There are a reasonable number of "three dollar autos" (autographs of low ceiling subjects without much hobby demand) without the prospect upside of, in three years, the player possibly being hugely desirable. Great cards and I love buying them as singles, but you need to get really lucky to really get that "wow" card. The checklist is really small so we would need paired teams if we did teams. With that said, it's a pretty reasonably priced product for what you do get (I think it's be 60-70 a slot even with some shared slots)...just a hard sled to get there without a big rookie hit or a rarer insert hit.

Pros: Sleek design, pretty good overall auto list and color parallels, given it cost as much as Archives or 2023 Topps Jumbo it isn't too onerous cost wise
Cons: It needs shared teams for a random, too many filler autos, market doesn't seem to appreciate some of the mid-tier names.

2022 Bowman Inception- 16 Boxes Per Case, 1 Pack Per Box, 2 Autos Per Box

If we want a quick break, I dig Ineception. They are artsy, thick stocked cards. Really solid auto checklist with many of the higher end prospects you want. It's a quick break - 16 packs and even if you milk it you can only go through seven cards so fast. Two autos per pack and the vast majority are on card and not redemptions. All autos are numbered from what I've seen. The downside is just that thought - it's a hit heavy product and there are some of those "three dollar autos" in there. This is also a prospect only product - you'll have some guys who will be in the league this year but it's still heavy in that realm.

Pros: Numbered on-card autos that are visually appealing, pretty strong and small checklist, 32 auto hits with 16 non-auto numbered cards is pretty good output for a case.
Cons: No MLB level guys, since it's not Flagship/Chrome it can suffer in the secondary market, easy to completely strike out even over a case (I did a few team breaks and only one of the four "teams" I got got more than one card in a half case break.

Mixed Box Break

There have been some one-off calls for products that could be fun but may not have the necessary support for a case of or may be too prohibitively expensive to run a case of. A lot of breakers will do mixers of product to get a taste of a lot of different products for people. It also can even out some of the checklist discrepancies if planned out. I am thinking products like Diamond Kings, Pro Debut, Triple Threads, Bowman Draft or Base etc. that could be pieced together at a reasonable cost and can mix in hit based products with more traditional products (so doing a one card box of a three card box doesn't feel so onerous). This could be a debate if people would agree to a break as to what it looks like and it may be a reasonable way to test drive a good handful of different products to see what we might want to do for breaks later.

Higher End Stuff

This is less of my expertise to be honest. I know there's some great licensed and unlicensed high end products that start pushing random slots into the 150+ range but I generally don't end up in high end unless it's a big treat to myself. I'd be more inclined to enjoy a high end mixer than a single product but finding and ensuring solo boxes where we know it hasn't been picked out of a case where any case hits were found is tougher.

And for items I'd be less enthused about for a variety of reasons but worth mentioning in case that strikes anyone as interesting. It would be rather tough to balance different boxes to relative value so it may be one we just have to accept 30 entries and someone(s) are getting skunked on quality.

2022 A&G Chrome and 2022 Stadium Club Chrome

Not gonna say much on these since the latter isn't out and we just did base Stadium Club and, as much as I LOVE A&G, I don't think it's a great breaking product for the cost (you're pretty much hard capped at a handful of slots "winning" and the non-baseball subjects require randoms or its own slot and it can be tough). If there is a groundswell I can break it down to what I can

2022 Gypsy Queen and 2022 Heritage and 2022 A&G and All Its Friends:

More of the baseish type products, Heritage is a hardcore set builder that doesn't do a ton for me as a breaking product (I'd much rather buy a box at that point) and some folks love Gypsy Queen and they have some really good autos, but it's a bit of an odd checklist and hard to really track.
 
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Fishercat

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May 18, 2007
8,266
Manchester, N.H.
I don't think it'll be available much longer at the price it's at but Leaf Metal slaps this year. The artificial scarcity is up to 11 and it's not licensed but the checklist is worlds better than other products - top flight prospects and legends galore still at a fairly reasonable price. I randomed into a case break last night in a terrible spot and still got a couple nice hits (Ezequiel Tovar /3 was my best). The guy who got the Sox got Boggs, Marcelo, Bello, and a Marcelo/Rafaela dual autos. Another half case has both a Mo Rivera and a Brian Cashman auto. Just truly crazy stuff. 6 autos a box.

I'd rip a case with the crew here in a second and it'll cost less than any other break we have done
 

JoePoulson

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Feb 28, 2006
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Sounds fun to me, after today's rip I'll start checking prices of various product and begin the research.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
41,948
If anyone wants a taste of it, this was a full case and random slots were $66 with 27 people.

View: https://youtu.be/lMP5uFSIieU
Leaf products are very cool in some respects, but you really buy them if you are looking to collect. They are not investment cards in reality, which is why their prices are depressed. They just don't bring a ton of value on the secondary market. One of the big reason is because Leaf doesn't have licensing. Thats why you don't see team logos anywhere not on the jerseys, hats, helmets, etc. This is why Topps/Bowman baseball products are worth more than Panini products, and both are worth way more than Leaf products. It's flipped when talking about football/basketball.

If folks are looking to collect autos of some cool stuff, Leaf is a great product, but if you're looking to turn a profit, it's just going to be a loss, so you have to expect that going in.

To put this in perspective.

A 1/1 Jackson Chourio from Leaf Metal just sold for $199.99.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/394526475711?hash=item5bdb9c45bf:g:ve0AAOSwB7FkG38p&amdata=enc:AQAHAAAA8J5DcI198mIa7zocelf3gN7vpoHTbvmQubW47YKd9lsIKzD+DQfoyiaLykZPbitZfoHz8sGq6Zk1XioXyQKpG00sGWR/NHSEqkUITN5aSudPZXYXS+cZ/2p/AnBDdF5kRDa0HfzoY9DAEF6DxJgTp2mKGiq15DH1lDMRTfNG1Ug/3zvJhT5InqPb6k0Cq7/smHsQ/ez8ZBaY86Usg36X5P5zSHkhzl3KAa5Rt6LWt5ULGNBGZekuqkHBzTky5ZWQVrhVvu+eZOyo3UBmNVAZgM+ld4jT+xrde0iMy9mJmz7Qd2cspnjOwgW7ZhJ7f6Uekg==|tkp:Bk9SR4SJlrXjYQ

A 25/25 Jackson Chourio, ungraded, from Bowman Chrome just sold for $4,500.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/385393996591?hash=item59bb45b32f:g:rxcAAOSwZlBj0MIE&amdata=enc:AQAHAAAA4OX/ZF0U+T5esaJskvyf2TT+F62602ywF4WcmK/jSmH1ZVbfu9Jm/CqsB7HQR3+0hJCFeadIZI4JfipRwsGDLVlwzI4a9A6ZxOqk25rGQWeWkb9Jr0syZDsE1FnVTW17OLFMbVBmhLadfDzRVoqFJp06B8AGi2HxWYNIWy1Nu9LiPUXQlPKoabibJpUUD0oBlKwTT8upFTZFKkBGwt/EmOIG77sHiCUNzmBbdw4y4z4AK81f+dxw3EW1OnT59VZfL+eHkLKtjqcS0JDrz9G3gcbcu8oRWCs8pnErjV7AXIGa|tkp:Bk9SR97S57XjYQ
 

Fishercat

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SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
8,266
Manchester, N.H.
Leaf products are very cool in some respects, but you really buy them if you are looking to collect. They are not investment cards in reality, which is why their prices are depressed. They just don't bring a ton of value on the secondary market. One of the big reason is because Leaf doesn't have licensing. Thats why you don't see team logos anywhere not on the jerseys, hats, helmets, etc. This is why Topps/Bowman baseball products are worth more than Panini products, and both are worth way more than Leaf products. It's flipped when talking about football/basketball.

If folks are looking to collect autos of some cool stuff, Leaf is a great product, but if you're looking to turn a profit, it's just going to be a loss, so you have to expect that going in.

To put this in perspective.

A 1/1 Jackson Chourio from Leaf Metal just sold for $199.99.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/394526475711?hash=item5bdb9c45bf:g:ve0AAOSwB7FkG38p&amdata=enc:AQAHAAAA8J5DcI198mIa7zocelf3gN7vpoHTbvmQubW47YKd9lsIKzD+DQfoyiaLykZPbitZfoHz8sGq6Zk1XioXyQKpG00sGWR/NHSEqkUITN5aSudPZXYXS+cZ/2p/AnBDdF5kRDa0HfzoY9DAEF6DxJgTp2mKGiq15DH1lDMRTfNG1Ug/3zvJhT5InqPb6k0Cq7/smHsQ/ez8ZBaY86Usg36X5P5zSHkhzl3KAa5Rt6LWt5ULGNBGZekuqkHBzTky5ZWQVrhVvu+eZOyo3UBmNVAZgM+ld4jT+xrde0iMy9mJmz7Qd2cspnjOwgW7ZhJ7f6Uekg==|tkp:Bk9SR4SJlrXjYQ

A 25/25 Jackson Chourio, ungraded, from Bowman Chrome just sold for $4,500.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/385393996591?hash=item59bb45b32f:g:rxcAAOSwZlBj0MIE&amdata=enc:AQAHAAAA4OX/ZF0U+T5esaJskvyf2TT+F62602ywF4WcmK/jSmH1ZVbfu9Jm/CqsB7HQR3+0hJCFeadIZI4JfipRwsGDLVlwzI4a9A6ZxOqk25rGQWeWkb9Jr0syZDsE1FnVTW17OLFMbVBmhLadfDzRVoqFJp06B8AGi2HxWYNIWy1Nu9LiPUXQlPKoabibJpUUD0oBlKwTT8upFTZFKkBGwt/EmOIG77sHiCUNzmBbdw4y4z4AK81f+dxw3EW1OnT59VZfL+eHkLKtjqcS0JDrz9G3gcbcu8oRWCs8pnErjV7AXIGa|tkp:Bk9SR97S57XjYQ
Just to be clear to all. This is completely correct. Part of this was considering that a number of folks in this group are doing this more for fun and it’s a distinctly fun product…if not likely to be profitable,
 

Bergs

funky and cold
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Jul 22, 2005
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Yeah, I'm not really down for anything not Topps/Bowman.
 

Fishercat

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May 18, 2007
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Manchester, N.H.
I totally understand that, any opinions on other products? I laid out some options but discussion doesn't seem to really be going on right now.
 

Bergs

funky and cold
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2005
21,613
I totally understand that, any opinions on other products? I laid out some options but discussion doesn't seem to really be going on right now.
I like the idea of mixed box breaks, but am always concerned they're leftovers from cases that already had a big hit.

Otherwise, any of the options from your post (the non-Leaf one lol) would be cool with me, though A&G would be my least favorite.

Shit, I'd do Stadium Club or Bowman Chrome again! lol.
 

JoePoulson

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Feb 28, 2006
2,755
Orlando, FL
Clearly Authentic could be a fun break. 20 cards for $1749. Comes to $92 a slot if we buy for breaker excluding shipping.

We could do like we did with Tier One - break the case and then randomize order we pick the cards.

https://www.dacardworld.com/sports-cards/2022-topps-clearly-authentic-baseball-hobby-20-box-case

I love the look of clearly authentic.
I'm a HUGE fan of Clearly Authentic (CA) and currently have an absurd amount, so zero arguments from me. This gives us a nice cap at 20, and since we're sitting at 16, we're not far from filling. That being said, I know a lot about 2022 CA and can say that we run a risk of striking out, big-time, on a product like this. Lots of amazing names in there, and the 1955 throwbacks are possibly the coolest cards ever, but it would require some serious luck to get remotely close to our money back. We all know the score, that our monthly's are 100% gambling, and our goal isn't to necessarily make our money back of course...but I just want to set expectations a bit on that particular product. And I'm definitely not poo-poo'ing the idea of a CA break! I'll open anything as long as we agree to it as a group.

If we roll with CA, we could maybe pair it with something else to help ease the pain of potentially losing out with shit cards. Plus something additional would give us more cards than just one. Some other ideas mentioned so far:

Stadium Club Chrome looks lovely.
$2,314.70 pre-sell, ships 4/5 - Checklist

Please see this amazing post #13 by Fishercat for more ideas with great breakdowns

As far as budget, we were at $150 last month, I'm assuming we're good for at least that again this month. Some have mentioned a higher-end product, so I'm assuming again that we could potentially increase that budget. Hypothetically, we could get a case of 2022 CA and a case of 2022 Stadium Club Chrome for $4100-ish. Between 20 people that's $202 per (210 with s/h?), or 19 is $213 (220 w s/h?)? Just to give an idea of how two cases would potentially look, cost-wise. There are cases cheaper than that SC Chrome, obviously, as a 2023 Topps Series 1 Jumbo case is $1,502.08.

Lots of ideas!
 

Traut

lost his degree
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My basic thought was you lose with every case but here everyone gets an auto which feels better at least to me than a bunch of base.

Also the buy in is less than $100 for the experience of pulling a dud. There’s upside with the possibility of Wander, Witt, and J-Rod and the throwback cards are cool.

Allowing a draft gives people some form of control. And yeah - you are most likely going home with a Matthew Boyd auto instead of a bunch of base cards.

Unless we rip some super high end product of like $1000 an entry this will be the result. And even that is just a way to lose money in a different way.
 
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Fishercat

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May 18, 2007
8,266
Manchester, N.H.
I'm good with the Clearly Authentic choice. I know it'll be a lot of skunking but a break of that and the fantasy of getting like one of the three good autos is more fun than ripping a single box. I like SC Chrome but if we're going to go to 200 plus a slot I think I'd prefer to add in some more hit focused boxes (Inception, Tier One, 5 Star, Signature Series, etc) to do a quasi mixer instead to get to 40 hits and hit draft that as opposed to a base heavy product. But to be clear I like the CA alone this time perfectly well
 

JoePoulson

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Feb 28, 2006
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A case of CA alone is great, too!

Edited for more specifics - our price for a case of 2022 Clearly Authentic is $1,723.70. /19 = $91, so $97 with s/h? Would certainly be our simplest and quickest break yet! And as Traut suggested, doing a randomized draft order for us to then pick our cards seems to be the best way to handle this break as well. I'm down if everyone else is, and we still need 4 more breakers to get to 20. Spread the word!
 
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AlNipper49

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My basic thought was you lose with every case but here everyone gets an auto which feels better at least to me than a bunch of base.

Also the buy in is less than $100 for the experience of pulling a dud. There’s upside with the possibility of Wander, Witt, and J-Rod and the throwback cards are cool.

Allowing a draft gives people some form of control. And yeah - you are most likely going home with a Matthew Boyd auto instead of a bunch of base cards.

Unless we rip some super high end product of like $1000 an entry this will be the result. And even that is just a way to lose money in a different way.
Plus it's fun collecting cards. It's not like I'm turning around and listing these things on eBay.
 

JoePoulson

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Feb 28, 2006
2,755
Orlando, FL
Yoooooo everyone! So sorry for the lack of posts here, been super-busy with the family and we're knee-deep into playoff sports! Anyway we're still on for some Clearly Authentic!!! We're still 3 slots shy of a full break, so hopefully we can get them filled so we can rip!
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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Jun 2, 2016
1,007
Hanover, PA
Yoooooo everyone! So sorry for the lack of posts here, been super-busy with the family and we're knee-deep into playoff sports! Anyway we're still on for some Clearly Authentic!!! We're still 3 slots shy of a full break, so hopefully we can get them filled so we can rip!
Bumping this to see if you are still planning on breaking the 2022 Clearly Authentic? If so and you are sill looking for participants, I will join. I am not sure if you use the same dealer every time or shop around, but prices may have dropped. $1475.00 here:

https://www.theawesomecardshop.com/product/2022-topps-clearly-authentic-baseball-20-box-case/1982?cfa=gpl
 

Bergs

funky and cold
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2005
21,613
I'm always in, in case that wasn't factored in somehow.