So, who do you think the Red Sox will sign?

Which free agent do you think the Red Sox will sign?

  • Carlos Correa

    Votes: 9 3.5%
  • Trevor Story

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Freddie Freeman

    Votes: 6 2.4%
  • Kris Bryant

    Votes: 4 1.6%
  • Marcus Stroman

    Votes: 42 16.5%
  • Chris Taylor

    Votes: 15 5.9%
  • Kyle Schwarber

    Votes: 56 22.0%
  • Carlos Rodon

    Votes: 17 6.7%
  • Other

    Votes: 14 5.5%
  • Nobody at over 10 million AAV

    Votes: 92 36.1%

  • Total voters
    255

YTF

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There are billions and billions of dollars and available for their investments and hundreds of analytic guys and gals who have the time. It’s a tired trope here that the ownership’s other interests means less money and time spent on the Red Sox, that goes back a few years without evidence to support it.
Yeah, I don't get it. In February of 2007 FSG purchased 50% of Roush Racing, 8 months later the Red Sox were celebrating their second WS Championship in four seasons. In October of 2010 FSG purchased Liverpool FC, 3 years later the Red Sox were celebrating another championship and five years after that another. I'm thinking that we should be looking forward to the continuance of this pattern.
 

moondog80

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I didn't vote for him, but I can see a scenario where Correa goes to the Yanks, everyone else is out of money and somehow Trevor Story is still out there, and the Sox opportunistically sign him to a one year deal.
 

Humphrey

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"Stewart, 28 next month, appeared in the majors with Detroit each season from 2018-20. The left-handed hitter tallied 587 plate appearances all told (the bulk of them coming in 2019) and hit .225/.300/.376 with 15 home runs. That kind of offensive output wasn’t enough to compensate for Stewart’s lack of defensive value as a below-average left fielder "

Reminds me of the old joke Woody Allen told in one of his movies: "The food is terrible here....and such small portions, too".
 

chawson

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Eno Sarris at The Athletic with an interesting piece comparing Stroman, Gausman and Ray through command, Stuff+ (spin rate, movement, release point), health and other analytics.

His conclusion:

“Given the fact that ground-ball rate ages so well, and ground-ball pitchers perhaps have better injury outcomes and that Stroman has more pitches he can start using as he uses his fastball less, it could be the case that he will age the best of the trio.”

Other pullquotes:
- “it’s relevant that Stroman has thrown more than two thousand fewer pitches than Gausman and Ray”

- “Private pitching training shop Tread Athletics released a report on Stroman that summarized that the pitcher ‘generates his arm speed in a biomechanically efficient way that minimizes unnecessary torque through the elbow and shoulder’ after they analyzed the timing of his arm as his front foot first made contact, the flexion in his elbow, the height of his elbow as his arm comes around and the rotation in his torso.”
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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After Paxton and Wacha…. Is there any chance they go after Stroman? I know Paxton won’t even be in the 25-man until June at the earliest, but that’s $17M spent on pitching already. The way I’m seeing this off-season for the Sox was that they had $40M AAV available for new signings, including possible extensions, so really only $23M more available
 

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After Paxton and Wacha…. Is there any chance they go after Stroman? I know Paxton won’t even be in the 25-man until June at the earliest, but that’s $17M spent on pitching already. The way I’m seeing this off-season for the Sox was that they had $40M AAV available for new signings, including possible extensions, so really only $23M more available
I don't think they have any effect on a Stroman signing. Paxton is a future play, Wacha is a replacement for Richards or Perez. The Sox still need to replace ERod, and banking on all of Wacha, Houck, and Whitlock seems unlikely.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Kind of impossible to say without knowing what the CBT threshold will be. Looks like they are at ~$195M now, $15M under the old threshold.
 

moondog80

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Kind of impossible to say without knowing what the CBT threshold will be. Looks like they are at ~$195M now, $15M under the old threshold.
Right. If the aim is to stay under the threshold, Paxton impacts Stroman or any such signing.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Right. If the aim is to stay under the threshold, Paxton impacts Stroman or any such signing.
Which... if there's roughly $15M remaining to spend (maybe there isn't, of course and the Sox will go waaaay above), then that $10M to Paxton removes the chance of getting Stroman and Schwarber.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think the Paxton signing means they are willing to go over the tax. Why would you give Paxton $10 million to rehab when they want to stay under? It wouldn’t seem like the best use of limited resources.
 

chawson

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I think the Paxton signing means they are willing to go over the tax. Why would you give Paxton $10 million to rehab when they want to stay under? It wouldn’t seem like the best use of limited resources.
100 percent. There’s no way that our team’s costliest expenditure coming out of an ALCS loss is a rehabbing 33-year-old pitcher who may give us 60 innings. We’re spending.

It’s mindblowing to me how many people here assume that the tax threshold — which we’ve exceeded several times — is some sort of hard cap, especially when the players’/labor share of revenues is steadily lower each year. It feels like half the fan base complains that Bloom is “turning us into the Rays” and the other half prefers to do the work of a Rays budget manager trying to save their owner as much money as possible.
 

jon abbey

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Which... if there's roughly $15M remaining to spend (maybe there isn't, of course and the Sox will go waaaay above), then that $10M to Paxton removes the chance of getting Stroman and Schwarber.
Schwarber supposedly has offers in the 4/56 range, hard to see Chaim being interested at that level.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Schwarber supposedly has offers in the 4/56 range, hard to see Chaim being interested at that level.
At $14m AAV? That seems way lower than he’d be looking. I was expecting at least JDM contract. Chaim should totally go higher than those offers
 

chawson

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Schwarber supposedly has offers in the 4/56 range, hard to see Chaim being interested at that level.
That’s lighter than I thought it would take, actually. If you believe (as I do) that Schwarber is more or less the same asset as circa 2018 JDM, then 4/56 seems like a steal.

JDM 2017: .430 wOBA
Schwarber from 6/1/21 (post-spider tack) on: .431 wOBA
 

Sin Duda

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Anyone see the Masslive article on Non-Tenders? The two that caught my eye are:
  • Richard Lovelady: The Royals non-tendered the 26-year-old lefty who had a 3.48 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 23 strikeouts and six walks in 20 relief outings (20 ⅔ innings). His fastball spin ranked in the 90th percentile, and
  • Colin Moran: The Pirates designated the 29-year-old first baseman at the non-tender deadline. He was the sixth overall pick in 2013 out of UNC, slashed .258/.334/.390/.724 with 10 homers, 12 doubles and 50 RBIs in 99 games (359 plate appearances) for Pittsburgh in 2021. The left-handed hitter has a .747 OPS and 45 homers in 460 major league games. (with .288/.352/.432/.784 splits with 106 career wRC+ vs RH per RotoWire)
And the introduction from the bullpen "Ladies and gentlemen, now coming in, Dick Love-lady!" to the sounds of "Hooked on a Feeling" by Blue Swede is comedic gold (to me).
 

moondog80

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I can see the Dodgers making a push for him... not sure agree a Red Sox fit... love him for sure but don't think the math or position works for Sox
Unless the Dodgers think Muncy won't be back, I don't see the fit. Stroman and/or Kershaw makes much more sense for them.
 

snowmanny

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The thing about Schwarber is that four months ago the Red Sox decided that the lineup, as constructed, really could benefit from trading for him. So I assume that if they do not sign him then they are going to do something else to replace him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This feels like more agent-negotiating-via-his-favorite-reporter nonsense to me. Connecting the Red Sox (and the Yankees and the Dodgers) to Freeman is easy leverage.

Besides, as much as I like Freeman, the Sox signing him now brings up Adrian Gonzalez vibes to me. Just like in 2011, the team has a couple guys in-house who could potentially hold down 1B for a while (Dalbec and Casas), but want the "sure thing" despite the extra cost. Gonzalez was good while he was here but obviously wasn't the long term solution (while Rizzo blossomed elsewhere). Also, given the way they've approached the market so far where their clear area of need is (pitching), I can't see them going big for a luxury item like Freeman.
 

E5 Yaz

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This feels like more agent-negotiating-via-his-favorite-reporter nonsense to me. Connecting the Red Sox (and the Yankees and the Dodgers) to Freeman is easy leverage.
Agree completely ... which is why I couched it as a tease for BMHH
 

RedOctober3829

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100 percent. There’s no way that our team’s costliest expenditure coming out of an ALCS loss is a rehabbing 33-year-old pitcher who may give us 60 innings. We’re spending.

It’s mindblowing to me how many people here assume that the tax threshold — which we’ve exceeded several times — is some sort of hard cap, especially when the players’/labor share of revenues is steadily lower each year. It feels like half the fan base complains that Bloom is “turning us into the Rays” and the other half prefers to do the work of a Rays budget manager trying to save their owner as much money as possible.
Yeah signing Paxton is the exact opposite of a "Rays move". When has a small market team in the offseason paid a player $10 million knowing it's for a half year or less of work? It's lazy and just plain wrong. Now, the future actions of Bloom will tell the story but I would forecast high-end moves to be coming. If he doesn't, then that's another story.
 
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Yeah signing Paxton is the exact opposite of a "Rays move". When has a small market team in the offseason paid a player $10 million knowing it's for a half year or less of work?
The Rays did sign Eovaldi in February 2017 with the knowledge that he'd miss all of 2017. Granted, it was for $2M for 2017 with a $2M plus incentives option for 2018 but $2M is not an insignificant amount to a budget-constrained franchise like Tampa Bay.

https://www.mlbdailydish.com/platform/amp/2017/2/13/14597198/rays-sign-nathan-eovaldi
 

RedOctober3829

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Diamond Don Aase

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Anyone see the Masslive article on Non-Tenders? The two that caught my eye are:
  • Richard Lovelady: The Royals non-tendered the 26-year-old lefty who had a 3.48 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 23 strikeouts and six walks in 20 relief outings (20 ⅔ innings). His fastball spin ranked in the 90th percentile, and
  • Colin Moran: The Pirates designated the 29-year-old first baseman at the non-tender deadline. He was the sixth overall pick in 2013 out of UNC, slashed .258/.334/.390/.724 with 10 homers, 12 doubles and 50 RBIs in 99 games (359 plate appearances) for Pittsburgh in 2021. The left-handed hitter has a .747 OPS and 45 homers in 460 major league games. (with .288/.352/.432/.784 splits with 106 career wRC+ vs RH per RotoWire)
And the introduction from the bullpen "Ladies and gentlemen, now coming in, Dick Love-lady!" to the sounds of "Hooked on a Feeling" by Blue Swede is comedic gold (to me).
The Royals have re-signed Lovelady to a minor-league contract. Lovelady is expected to miss the 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September.

Not mentioned in the MassLive article but at least as deserving of attention are:

LHP Matt Strahm (Padres): Formerly the Royals’ top prospect, Strahm was traded to the Padres in a 2017 deadline deal for Ryan Buchter and Trevor Cahill. A starter in his last two full minor-league seasons in the Kansas City organization, Strahm found sustained success in relief for San Diego, posting a 3.36 FIP in 2018 and pitching 114.2 innings across 46 appearances (16 starts) in 2019. Despite a 2.61 ERA in 2020, his strikeouts declined precipitously that season as Strahm was inhibited by a patellar tendon injury to his right knee that required October surgery. Rehabilitation and subsequent September inflammation limited Strahm to six August appearances in 2021 but, during that small sample, he again demonstrated an ability to limit walks (7.4% for his career and no higher than 4.8% in each of the past three seasons) and induced groundballs at a career-high 48.3% rate that was consistent with his minor-league track record.

LHP Jose Castillo (Padres): Traded with Ryan Hanigan from the Rays to the Padres in the December, 2014 Cecil B. De Mille casting call that is now best known as the three-way deal that eventually sent Trea Turner to the Nationals, Castillo dominated during a 2018 San Diego debut, posting a 2.25 xERA and a 2.64 FIP in his first 37 major-league appearances. Subsequent seasons have been largely curtailed by sprains (2019 index finger), strains (2020 left lat), and orthomobiles (March, 2021 Tommy John surgery). With Graveman, Iglesias, Knebel, and Yates having agreed to contracts in recent days, few— if any— remaining free-agent relievers can match the upside of a healthy Castillo, who does not turn 26 years old until next month.

RHP Jason Adam (Cubs): Overland Park native Adam was drafted by his hometown Royals and steadily progressed through the Kansas City organization, taking fewer than four seasons to reach Triple-A at the age of 22. Adam finished that fourth professional season with the Minnesota organization after the Twins acquired him in an August trade for Schwarberian prototype Josh Willingham. Adam missed all of 2015 and 2016 and most of 2017 with injuries but returned to the Kansas City organization in 2018 and made his major-league debut with the Royals that year. Subsequent seasons with the Blue Jays and Cubs have seen Adam regularly shuttle between parent clubs and their Triple-A affiliates. Despite impressive FIP and gaudy strikeout totals at the minor leagues’ highest level, he has accrued frequent flyer miles more readily than major league service time. Chicago’s 2021 fire sale should have afforded Adam a better bite at the apple but a grisly ankle injury suffered in May threatened to end his season. Adam was able to return to the Cubs for the final week of the campaign and— in the scouting parlance favored by SOSH national crosschecker John T. Bone— straight-up mowed pricks down, striking out six of the 10 batters that he faced while allowing only one baserunner. In isolation, those three appearances certainly are a sample size small enough to make Michael Wacha’s agent blush but Adam struck out 38% of opposing batters in 12 MLB appearances last season and has now struck out 28% of opposing batters in 79 career MLB appearances. While he does not offer the potential length of Strahm nor the possible upside of Castillo, Adam may offer something almost as important to the Red Sox— flexibility. He may be more agreeable to a minor-league contract, preserving dwindling 40-man roster space and reducing the risk of having to expose holdovers Pottsie and Ralph Malph to waivers.

C Yohel Pozo (Rangers): Pozo’s Scrabble scores are more impressive than his scouting grades. He does not walk, cannot run, and any paeans to his proficiency behind the plate are more likely to be penned by Josh Bard than Shakespeare. However, Pozo has consistently hit and— after entering 2021 with just 107 games in High-A and none in Double-A— not only hit in Triple-A but hit for power, with 23 home runs in 324 plate appearances. While a portion of his power surge surely is attributable to the introduction of Super Happy Fun Ball to Triple-A, Pozo’s ability to maintain a 13% strikeout rate in his 21-game major-league debut is a positive indicator for future success. Pozo, like fellow Venezuelan reserve receiver Willians Astudillo, is a Tortuga of a different color. In a free-agent catcher market that has been reduced to Crying, Waiting, and Hoping, though, a 24-year-old that could provide immediate depth merits more attention.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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The universal DH should all but take Boston out of the running for Kyle from Waltham, shouldn't it? Should also make it easier to move JDM and put Raffi right in at DH.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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The universal DH should all but take Boston out of the running for Kyle from Waltham, shouldn't it? Should also make it easier to move JDM and put Raffi right in at DH.
As a way to sign Correa or Story? That feels like trading for A.Gonzalez again; moving parts that might not result in a better team. I think we’d lose X next year, and I’d be a little worried that Devers would not thrive in a DH role. He already seems pretty amped during ABs. If he didn’t have defense to give himself something else to focus on, bad ABs could spiral. All speculation, but many players have talked about how F/T DH isn’t always as easy as we might think.

I do agree that this makes Kyle far less likely.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The universal DH should all but take Boston out of the running for Kyle from Waltham, shouldn't it? Should also make it easier to move JDM and put Raffi right in at DH.
So the universal DH suggests the Red Sox should downgrade their lineup immediately, or is this just an incomplete thought? If they're not going to re-sign Schwarber (and personally I think the universal DH is going to have little impact on that outcome), then there's zero reason to move JDM. He's on a one-year deal and he's been quite productive (covid 2020 season aside). I don't see the upside of trading him.
 

cantor44

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So the universal DH suggests the Red Sox should downgrade their lineup immediately, or is this just an incomplete thought? If they're not going to re-sign Schwarber (and personally I think the universal DH is going to have little impact on that outcome), then there's zero reason to move JDM. He's on a one-year deal and he's been quite productive (covid 2020 season aside). I don't see the upside of trading him.
I would agree I don't see the upside of having neither Schwarber NOR JD next year. I mean, trading Renfroe and then JD, too, and not getting Schwarber .... you can't give up too much offense, eh? I can see signing Schwarber and then trading JD, given that there might be a more robust trade market for him with the universal DH. But having neither player?
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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So the universal DH suggests the Red Sox should downgrade their lineup immediately, or is this just an incomplete thought? If they're not going to re-sign Schwarber (and personally I think the universal DH is going to have little impact on that outcome), then there's zero reason to move JDM. He's on a one-year deal and he's been quite productive (covid 2020 season aside). I don't see the upside of trading him.
There was talk of trading JDM as soon as the season ended, if not before, whether they could keep Schwarber or not. Maybe they decide to let him play out his deal if they think they can contend this year, but the moves so far don't seem to suggest that is Bloom's MO heading into the '22 season. If they think he can fetch some good value in return from a team that might need a bat (and may suddenly have an opening with the rule change), I don't see how they let him leave for nothing at the end of the season.

I think Schwarber is less likely now because suddenly 15 other teams have a need for a DH and may be willing to pay more than Boston is for his services as a result. If not Raffi as the DH, they could go to Dalbec, or do what other teams have been doing for awhile and just rotate the DH spot as needed to give guys a day off in the field.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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… Maybe they decide to let him play out his deal if they think they can contend this year, but the moves so far don't seem to suggest that is Bloom's MO heading into the '22 season. …
Do you mean that our moves suggest Bloom doesn’t think we can contend this year? Then why sign Wacha and Hill? I’d be disappointed with any team with a payroll of $200M heading into the season with the mindset that they can’t contend! I still think, rather than subtract or merely build to the future, that they add a solid bat and an MLB-caliber relief arm.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Do you mean that our moves suggest Bloom doesn’t think we can contend this year? Then why sign Wacha and Hill? I’d be disappointed with any team with a payroll of $200M heading into the season with the mindset that they can’t contend! I still think, rather than subtract or merely build to the future, that they add a solid bat and an MLB-caliber relief arm.
Thank you. That was my reaction too. Where is this idea coming from that the team won't contend in 2022? Did they not come within two games of the World Series four months ago? The only significant subtractions from that team so far have been ERod and Renfroe. A full season of healthy Sale plus the free agent mishmash (Wacha, Hill, Paxton) should help compensate for the ERod loss and Renfroe isn't impossible to replace.

As for letting Martinez go for nothing at the end of the season, we don't know what the CBA will look like yet. There may well be free agent compensation of some kind, even if the word now is that it won't be in the form of draft picks. Of course, there's also the possibility of moving him at the trade deadline if they do fall out of contention. If he has increased value before the season because of the universal DH, he'll have value at the deadline as well.

I think I could be convinced that moving Martinez makes sense, but it's going to take more than just saying Devers or Dalbec or a DH rotation can replace him. Specifically, who are they adding to facilitate the change? Who plays 3B if Devers is the DH? Who plays 1B if it's Dalbec? That's why I asked if the initial post was an incomplete thought.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Isn’t a player like JD on a one year deal exactly what a team like the Sox wants? A well above average, potentially elite, player with no long term commitment is exactly what the Sox have sought on nearly every acquisition of the Bloom era. He’s not blocking anyone, I have a hard time seeing how moving him is a great idea, especially at this point as the price on Schwarber likely just went up significantly.
 

YTF

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There was talk of trading JDM as soon as the season ended, if not before, whether they could keep Schwarber or not. Maybe they decide to let him play out his deal if they think they can contend this year, but the moves so far don't seem to suggest that is Bloom's MO heading into the '22 season. If they think he can fetch some good value in return from a team that might need a bat (and may suddenly have an opening with the rule change), I don't see how they let him leave for nothing at the end of the season.

I think Schwarber is less likely now because suddenly 15 other teams have a need for a DH and may be willing to pay more than Boston is for his services as a result. If not Raffi as the DH, they could go to Dalbec, or do what other teams have been doing for awhile and just rotate the DH spot as needed to give guys a day off in the field.
Suddenly 15 other teams have the ability to USE a DH. That doesn't mean that they need to go out and acquire one. Some will fill that slot will defensive deficient players who are already on their roster and swing a good bat. Other teams will rotate guys through that spot as a way to give players a day off and get others more ABs. There are AL teams that don't have a dedicated DH.