So, What's your Top 10?

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MentalDisabldLst

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I'm not smart enough about CFB to give and defend a ranking, but one thing I'm pretty sure of is that Michigan State is going to beat Ohio State.  4th-ranked defense, 11 PPG against some pretty good opponents, only loss was 17-13 to a #22-at-the-time Notre Dame.  Pull that game out and they'd certainly be ranked no worse than #3, possibly #2.  The OSU team that just barely squeaked by Michigan will now face a team that took on ranked-at-the-time Michigan a few weeks ago and manhandled them 29-6.  They've held 6 of their 12 opponents to single digits this year, including 5 of their 8 Big Ten matchups.  Ohio State has never had to play a defense better than that of, well, Iowa.
 
If I were betting, I'd definitely take the points on MSU +6.5 right now.
 

coremiller

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MentalDisabldLst said:
I'm not smart enough about CFB to give and defend a ranking, but one thing I'm pretty sure of is that Michigan State is going to beat Ohio State.  4th-ranked defense, 11 PPG against some pretty good opponents, only loss was 17-13 to a #22-at-the-time Notre Dame.  Pull that game out and they'd certainly be ranked no worse than #3, possibly #2.  The OSU team that just barely squeaked by Michigan will now face a team that took on ranked-at-the-time Michigan a few weeks ago and manhandled them 29-6.  They've held 6 of their 12 opponents to single digits this year, including 5 of their 8 Big Ten matchups.  Ohio State has never had to play a defense better than that of, well, Iowa.
 
If I were betting, I'd definitely take the points on MSU +6.5 right now.
 
They very well might win, but MSU hasn't played anyone this year.  The B1G had only 3 decent teams this season (MSU, OSU, and Wisconsin, who were collectively 22-1 against the rest of the conference) and MSU got lucky and avoided both of the others.  They don't have a single win over a currently-ranked team.  Their toughest opponent this year was probably Notre Dame, which was the one game they lost.  OSU's sched isn't special either, but at least they've beaten a legitimately good team in Wisconsin.  
 

FL4WL3SS

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MentalDisabldLst said:
I'm not smart enough about CFB to give and defend a ranking, but one thing I'm pretty sure of is that Michigan State is going to beat Ohio State.  4th-ranked defense, 11 PPG against some pretty good opponents, only loss was 17-13 to a #22-at-the-time Notre Dame.  Pull that game out and they'd certainly be ranked no worse than #3, possibly #2.  The OSU team that just barely squeaked by Michigan will now face a team that took on ranked-at-the-time Michigan a few weeks ago and manhandled them 29-6.  They've held 6 of their 12 opponents to single digits this year, including 5 of their 8 Big Ten matchups.  Ohio State has never had to play a defense better than that of, well, Iowa.
 
If I were betting, I'd definitely take the points on MSU +6.5 right now.
I'll take you up on that bet.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I don't follow college football all that closely but let me throw out a question for those of you who do: How many teams (and which teams) in the country would you have favored over Ohio State on a neutral field? 
 

BigMike

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I don't follow college football all that closely but let me throw out a question for those of you who do: How many teams (and which teams) in the country would you have favored over Ohio State on a neutral field? 
 
FSU,  Bama for sure, While the last second freak loss on the road kills Bama's chances of a title, I still think they would be a favorite over anyone other than maybe FSU by 7+ points on a neutral field.
 
Possibly Auburn and Mizzou.   I think there are another 6 teams that would be a pickem/ couple point either way matchup with OSU  (Baylor, Stanford, Oregon, OSU, South Carolina)
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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BigMike said:
 
FSU,  Bama for sure, While the last second freak loss on the road kills Bama's chances of a title, I still think they would be a favorite over anyone other than maybe FSU by 7+ points on a neutral field.
 
Possibly Auburn and Mizzou.   I think there are another 6 teams that would be a pickem/ couple point either way matchup with OSU  (Baylor, Stanford, Oregon, OSU, South Carolina)
 
Gotcha.  So while they're pretty clearly not actually the second best team in the country, them playing in the BCS title game isn't horrendously bad?
 

BigMike

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
Gotcha.  So while they're pretty clearly not actually the second best team in the country, them playing in the BCS title game isn't horrendously bad?
 
No,  they are very hard to judge because of the quality of their opponent, but they do have a great deal of talent.   Could they get blown out in a title game,  sure they might, but they could win as well.
 
This isn't a joke like last year's was.  Last year it was clear that ND had taken advantage of a weak schedule and snuck past a few very poor teams along the way during their magical run (BYU, Pitt, Michigan, Purdue) and a few others that were not quite as close but certainly unimpressive (the Bc GAME). I don't think anyone in their right mind gave ND a chance in the title game last year, and it was pretty much universally expected to be what it was (a soul crushing massacre)
 

Yeah Jeets

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I don't follow college football all that closely but let me throw out a question for those of you who do: How many teams (and which teams) in the country would you have favored over Ohio State on a neutral field? 
Florida State and Alabama. I think a lot of people look at the Michigan game and the fact that they didn't roll everyone in the Big Ten by 40 and think OSU is a flawed (or at least not "elite") team. Like Auburn in 2010 they just have one massive weakness: their secondary is horrendous. Prior to last Saturday they were able to keep teams out of the endzone when it mattered. 
 

JMDurron

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
Gotcha.  So while they're pretty clearly not actually the second best team in the country, them playing in the BCS title game isn't horrendously bad?
Right. Even this Auburn fan can admit this. This isn't a case where an obvious lamb is being sent to a slaughter (ND last year) or a team with an equal record in a weaker conference gets the benefit of the doubt due to their brand name (Oklahoma in 2004). If Ohio State and Auburn both win, and Auburn doesn't jump OSU in the polls, I don't think there is a strong case for saying that OSU doesn't deserve to be #2.

I'll obviously be rooting for a different result, but having the only major conference undefeated teams facing each other wouldn't be a bad thing.
 

SMU_Sox

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The line is OSU -6 now on Bovada as an FYI.
 

A few trends to consider:
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games 
Ohio State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Michigan State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio State's last 5 games when playing Michigan State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ohio State's last 7 games 
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games 
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 6 games 
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State's last 5 games when playing Ohio State
Michigan State is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Ohio State
 

Dgilpin

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1. Florida St.
2. Auburn
3. Michigan St.
4. Stanford
5. Alabama
6. Baylor
7. South Carolina
8. Oregon
9. Missouri
10. Ohio State
 

BigMike

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1)  FSU
2)  Auburn
3) Bama      
4) Michigan St
5) Baylor
6) Stanford
7) Ohio St
8) Missouri
9) South Carolina
10) UCF
 

Yeah Jeets

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1. Florida State
2. Auburn
3. Michigan State
4. Alabama
5. Stanford
6. Baylor
7. Ohio State
8. Missouri
9. South Carolina
10. Oregon
 

SMU_Sox

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1. FSU
2. Auburn
3. Bama
4. Stanford
5. Baylor
6. Michigan State
7. Ohio State
8. Oregon
9. SCAR
10. Mizzou
 
It's a shame we can't have a playoff as I would love to see the top 10 square off. MSU-Ohio State, Auburn-Mizzou, Auburn-Bama, Stanford ASU, Stanford-Oregon, these have been great games.
 
I think FSU is #1. But I'd love to have Bama #2. That's not politically correct. 
 
FSU is definitely #1.
 
Auburn and Bama are 2 and 3 and I don't know in what order. I still think Bama is a better team even though they lost. 
 
Stanford is #4. Don't see them anywhere else.
 
5-10 is a messy picture.
 
Baylor is 11-1. I like them in the 5-8 range.
 
Michigan State is a top 10 team. I have to put them ahead of Ohio State and Ohio State, to me, is a bottom top 10 team. 6-10 range.
 
Oregon is somewhere in the top half of the top 10 too. 9-10 range. 
 
SCAR: 7-9 range. FEI doesn't like them that much. I feel like they underachieved the entire year and that they started putting it together at the end of the year. 
 
Mizzou: Honestly I don't know if they are a top 10 team. If they are it's in the 9-10 range. Their defense, biggest strength, really failed to stop Auburn. Granted, Auburn has an amazing offense but I was surprised at how easy they moved against that Mizzou front.
 
Teams I like who didn't make the cut but I could see an argument for: Arizona State, Oklahoma State. 
 
I've seen 3-4 Oklahoma games this year. I don't buy the hype. It's hard to explain but I think their record is a lot better than their team even though they just beat Oklahoma State. 
 
M

MentalDisabldLst

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MentalDisabldLst said:
...one thing I'm pretty sure of is that Michigan State is going to beat Ohio State. <snip> If I were betting, I'd definitely take the points on MSU +6.5 right now.
 
FL4WL3SS said:
I'll take you up on that bet.
 
MentalDisabldLst said:
$20 to jimmy fund?  Line of OSU -6.5?  Done, on my side.
 
FL4WL3SS said:
Done deal. Good luck.
 
Didn't look good for a while there in the 3rd quarter, but the defense held.
 
Sick children thank you for your support.
 

BigMike

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SMU_Sox said:
 
Oregon is somewhere in the top half of the top 10 too. 9-10 range. 
 
Not just you, as I see them in most.    Why is Oregon a top 10 team?
 
I know their collapse had a lot to do with Mariota getting hurt,  but they absolutely did not play like a top 10 team in November
 
Good loss on the road to a very Good Stanford team
Uninspiring win at home against a 7 loss Utah team
Absolutely blown out on the road by a 5 loss Arizona team
Needed a last minute drive to pull out a 1 point win at home against a 6 loss OSU team.
 
As I said, I know Mariota being hobbled has a lot to do with the collapse, but that isn't changing this season,  so I don't see any reason to put them in the top 10 right now
 

PaulinMyrBch

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MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
  1. FSU                       -Boston College played them the toughest, 48-34.
  2. Auburn                   (Loss to LSU)
  3. Alabama                 (Loss to Auburn)
  4. Stanford                 (Loss to Utah, Southern Cal)
  5. Baylor                    (Loss to Oklahoma State)
  6. Michigan State        (Loss to Notre Dame)
  7. South Carolina        (Loss to Georgia, Tennessee)
  8. Missouri                 (Loss to South Carolina, Auburn)
  9. Ohio State              (Loss to MSU)
  10. Central Florida        (Loss to South Carolina)
11th would be a coin flip between Clemson/Oregon.  
 

SMU_Sox

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BigMike I have Oregon is the 8-12 range. It was a judgment called based on their advanced stats and trying to remember that wins early on should count just as much as wins later on.
 

SumnerH

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SMU_Sox said:
BigMike I have Oregon is the 8-12 range. It was a judgment called based on their advanced stats and trying to remember that wins early on should count just as much as wins later on.
 
This depends on whether the team has changed significantly since the early wins.  To take an extreme example, if the pats go 8-0 in the first half and finish 4-4 for no apparent reason, you might expect them to play more like a .750 team than a .500 team in the playoffs.  But if the Pats go 8-0 and then Brady goes down injured and they go 4-4 in the second half and are entering the playoffs with their backup QB, you'd probably want to reconsider that.
 
Which is precisely what BigMike is getting at with his comments about Mariota.
 

Deathofthebambino

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PaulinMyrBch said:
 
  1. FSU                       -Boston College played them the toughest, 48-34.
  2. Auburn                   (Loss to LSU)
  3. Alabama                 (Loss to Auburn)
  4. Stanford                 (Loss to Utah, Southern Cal)
  5. Baylor                    (Loss to Oklahoma State)
  6. Michigan State        (Loss to Notre Dame)
  7. South Carolina        (Loss to Georgia, Tennessee)
  8. Missouri                 (Loss to South Carolina, Auburn)
  9. Ohio State              (Loss to MSU)
  10. Central Florida        (Loss to South Carolina)
11th would be a coin flip between Clemson/Oregon.  
 
 
1. FSU (Not sure how any argument could be made against them.  They might not have played the toughest schedule, but they did what they needed to and did it in convincing fashion.  The only game that you could even remotely call a "stinker" is the BC game and they still won by two touchdowns.  Other teams played tougher schedules, but all had games that they didn't look good and/or lost against inferior opponents.  FSU just rolled all season, and there numbers couldn't have been outrageous had they not basically played backups in the second half for almost every game).
 
2. Auburn: Again, just not sure how you can't put them here.  The dethroned the kings, and did what they needed to in the SEC championship game.  Defense is susceptible, but the offense is the real deal.
 
3. Alabama:  Probably the hardest choice in the entire top ten for me. It came down to them and the next two teams, and ultimately, I just think their talent, coaching and experience puts them here.  If they played Auburn 100 times, I'm not convinced they don't win the majority of the time. 
 
4. Michigan State:  Again, tough call, but that defense is AWESOME.  Seriously, one of the best defenses I can remember in college football.  I hate, HATE that they lost to Notre Dame early in the season, because they were playing the best football in the country for the past month or so, IMO.  Offensively, they have issues, but damn, I was so impressed by them coming down the stretch, and I can't even begin to say how little I thought of them early in the year.
 
5. Stanford:  Again, defense, defense, defense.  I like MSU's defense more, by a pubic hair, but I like MSU's offense by more than that.  I just think Cook is a better QB than Hogan, and while Hogan has some more weapons around him in Montgomery, Gaffney, Cajuste, etc., I think Cook is better by a higher margin that he makes up the difference.  However, I really do like Stanford, and think if they had a better QB, they would probably be undefeated and talked about as one of the best teams in recent memory, not from the SEC.
 
6. Ohio State: Just a really good team that knows how to win, and has great coaching.  They lost one game, to IMO, a great football team, so it shouldn't detract too much from their ranking. 
 
7. Baylor:  Another tough call for me.  Obviously, their offense is the real deal, but if they ran up against a Stanford or a Michigan State, I think they get worked just like Oregon did against Stanford.  Fun to watch, but I'm not even sure they are as good as #7.
 
After that, I'm not sure it matters.  I think you can change in or out South Carolina, UCF, Missouri, Clemson and Oregon pretty much however you want, but those teams in the top 7 are a step above them.
 

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1 Florida St 14-0
2 Michigan St 13-1
3 Auburn 12-2
4 S. Carolina 11-2
5 Oklahoma 11-2
6 Alabama 11-2
7 Clemson 11-2
8 UCF 12-1
9 Missouri 12-2
10 Oregon 11-2
 
Rounding out the 25...
 
11 Louisville 12-1
12 LSU 10-3
13 Stanford 11-3
14 Ohio St 12-2
15 Baylor 11-2
16 UCLA 10-3
17 Oklahoma St 10-3
18 Texas A&M 9-4
19 USC 10-4
20 Notre Dame 9-4
21 Vanderbilt 9-4
22 Washington 9-4
23 Nebraska 9-4
24 Duke 10-4
25 Wisconsin 9-4
 

PaulinMyrBch

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MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
  1. FSU
  2. Auburn                    
  3. Michigan State 
  4. Oklahoma                
  5. Alabama                
  6. South Carolina                                           
  7. Missouri                
  8. Clemson           
  9. Central Florida
  10. Oregon 
 

Dgilpin

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1. FSU
2. Michigan St.
3. Auburn
4. South Carolina
5. UCF
6. Oklahoma
7. Alabama
8. Clemson
9. Missouri
10. Oregon
 

PaulinMyrBch

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MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
The Board's Consensus
 
I used a reverse 10-1 points system.
 
1.        FSU     40
2 (tie)  MSU     34
2 (tie)  Auburn 34
4.        South Carolina  26
5.        Oklahoma    23
6.        Alabama   19
7 (tie)  UCF     14
7 (tie)  Missouri  14
9.        Clemson  12
10.      Oregaon  3
 
Also receiving votes: Stanford 1