So Covington is reportedly extending with PHI for 4 years/$62mn, which seems like a reasonable comparable in thinking about SMart's next contract...
Smart's Value
- Thread starter Devizier
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In addition to being a good rebounder in his own right, he's excellent at getting bigger players on his back and just clearing out space for a teammate to grab the board. Rozier's a pretty incredible ball hawk on the glass for a guy his size- he just goes up and snatches it- whereas Marcus finds a big body to immobilize as soon as the shot goes up. I probably splooge about this too much in the game threads, but it's just not something you really see from guards, and like his screen-setting, it's not something that shows up readily in the box scores.
I'm pretty un-knowledgeable about advanced NBA stats, so I'm right there with you. I think Smart is a fascinating study. The only thing I can do is try to "reverse-engineer" his value. we know he's a lousy shooter (at present, certainly). we know he does some things obviously well. But perhaps just as importantly, it appears that Stevens values his contributions. The only thing left to do is try and hypothesize why, beyond the numbers, because in brad we trust.
I think there is something to the mentality. Not dirt-doggy, but just plain physical. Smart, Baynes and Morris bring a physicality that is necessary (at times), and they all can play. I think Crowder and to a lesser extent, Bradley brought that, But their size was a disadvantage in almost every matchup, no matter how physical they got. (and zeller and olynyk were just not physical players, either in build or style). In Smart, Baynes and Morris they get the physicality in (now) even-sized matchups, which they havent really had for awhile. As you say, those 3 must be a nightmare in practice, but a godsend for someone like Tatum.
Not really comparable because 76ers are giving Covington a raise this year with their cap space so he's getting guaranteed $ right now - an extra $15MM this year. Them RC's salary actually declines to help 76ers with cap management. Also, RC had been paid peanuts up to now so getting the raise this year had to mean a lot.
More info in both the 76ers thread as well as the NBA general thread here: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2017-18-nba-regular-season-game-observation-thread.21281/page-17#post-2542837
D-Wade in his prime was a poor shooter but was still the best in the league at drawing defenders to the perimeter because he could kill people off the drive with even a bit of daylight. Smart just needs to go back to shooting .520 at the rim and things should be OK.
In re how Smart could possibly be a net positive or even neutral on offense, here's my theory. He's a terrible shooter and finisher. Sure. But he has a unique body for a guard and is strong as a bull. The guy is capable of getting to the hoop even if he can't finish and can't elevate. And no matter how bad a finisher someone is, the defense always needs to defend layups. It goes against every instinct a basketball player has to not help when someone is three feet from the hoop.
Combine Smart's ability to play with his back to the basket with his above average vision and passing ability, and you have a good creator on your hands. Whether he can shoot or not he consistently gets the defense collapsing on him. Its much harder defending when the ball is lower than your man. If you watch when he gets his dimes, a lot of them come from when he's got his back to the basket. He makes many simple plays but they are often the right play (excluding some of his decisions to shoot).
So: Terrible shooter, terrible finisher, but gets to the line, passes well, makes good decisions, and has a unique body that allows him to get in dangerous positions that stretch the defense, because no matter how bad someone is you gotta defend close shots. He gets to the line, hits free throws, and doesn't turn it over. Its a theory.
Now if he could just stop taking so many outside shots.
Combine Smart's ability to play with his back to the basket with his above average vision and passing ability, and you have a good creator on your hands. Whether he can shoot or not he consistently gets the defense collapsing on him. Its much harder defending when the ball is lower than your man. If you watch when he gets his dimes, a lot of them come from when he's got his back to the basket. He makes many simple plays but they are often the right play (excluding some of his decisions to shoot).
So: Terrible shooter, terrible finisher, but gets to the line, passes well, makes good decisions, and has a unique body that allows him to get in dangerous positions that stretch the defense, because no matter how bad someone is you gotta defend close shots. He gets to the line, hits free throws, and doesn't turn it over. Its a theory.
Now if he could just stop taking so many outside shots.
As a follow up, here is a textbook example of the phenomenon we see with Marcus Smart.
Here we see the simplest pick and roll possible. Zeller sets a good screen and we see Frye has no respect for Smart's shot, staying just above the circle to cut off the hoop and the angle for a pass to Zeller. But it doesn't matter because Smart is able to get Irving on his back and use his strength and positioning to keep him there. This isn't a flashy dribble but it makes the whole thing work, and he is very good at this. Again, Smart is a terrible shooter, but Frye cannot give him an open lane to the hoop because even I can make a layup. So what happens? Frye has to step out, Smart makes the easy pass to Zeller, easy hoop.
This sort of thing happens regularly during the games. If I had synergy I would love to see what Smart's numbers are as the passer out of a pick and roll.
I recommend people watch the video because basketball highlights are sweet. But you see a lot of this: Smart gets into a dangerous position. You have to defend the hoop even against a bad shooter. Good pass and decision leads to a hoop.
This is all just going off my impressions. Maybe he's really just a terrible shooter. I'm interested what other people think.
Here we see the simplest pick and roll possible. Zeller sets a good screen and we see Frye has no respect for Smart's shot, staying just above the circle to cut off the hoop and the angle for a pass to Zeller. But it doesn't matter because Smart is able to get Irving on his back and use his strength and positioning to keep him there. This isn't a flashy dribble but it makes the whole thing work, and he is very good at this. Again, Smart is a terrible shooter, but Frye cannot give him an open lane to the hoop because even I can make a layup. So what happens? Frye has to step out, Smart makes the easy pass to Zeller, easy hoop.
This sort of thing happens regularly during the games. If I had synergy I would love to see what Smart's numbers are as the passer out of a pick and roll.
I recommend people watch the video because basketball highlights are sweet. But you see a lot of this: Smart gets into a dangerous position. You have to defend the hoop even against a bad shooter. Good pass and decision leads to a hoop.
This is all just going off my impressions. Maybe he's really just a terrible shooter. I'm interested what other people think.
Smart has an interesting and somewhat unique skill set that nicely complements this Celtic team. But at the end of the day, he's a replacable mid-round draft choice, not that far off from Rozier in overall talent or even Tony Allen in style of play.
Why is a non-competitor extending a guy who will be in his 30s by the time they're set to begin their run, rather than accumulating assets for 2020 and beyond? I suppose there's no downside to this, but it seems like an anti-Ainge type of move.
Philly is 8-6, and Embiid/Simmons both look like beasts. The run could start next year. Signing Covington to a bargain deal that takes him through his age 31 season is a no-brainer.
Edit: The Ringer says it better than me:
I agree. Smart is not a starter, and with a very capable Rozier on the team as a backup PG as well, I don't really see Smart as a must-sign player, even with all of the things he does. If you can sign him on a good deal, then sure, but handing out big contracts to mid-level talent is how you end up with a crap NBA team.
I understand they are 8-6, but they're not getting out of the East for a few years at least. It just seems more prudent to prepare for the future and not rely on free agents finally viewing Philly as a destination. I guess it's really six of one, half dozen of the other when it comes to sign vs. trade.
Related to the Ringer's point, I guess I don't really see it as sign with LA or Philly, but more "sign with LA or don't leave as a FA".
I can't tell if you haven't watched Marcus Smart or if you didn't watch Tony Allen. I guess they were similar in the sense that they were both "offense bad, defense good" types, but that is about as far as the analogy goes in my mind.
PS Tony "Clownshoes" Allen was criminally underrated on this board when he played here.
Rozier is one year away from us having the same conversation. He also is not close to the same sort of impact defensive player and lacks Smarts versatility. Long term, I agree that the team doesn't need and won't pay to keep both Smart and Rozier but I would say that the comparison of the two players argues in favor of paying Smart (unless he gets a crazy offer) and letting Rozier walk away in a year. If Rozier takes a huge leap that complicates this, Ainge can make a trade oriented toward cost management.
If Embiid and Simmons stay healthy they’re a top 4 team in the East next year. Fultz will be back soon, they’re probably adding another 7-10 pick this year from the Lakers, plus the $20m in space to fill holes with no bad contracts on the books. Signing Covington to that extension is a no-brainer, even if all of Fultz/Simmons/Embiid bust due to injury that’s a Jae Crowder level bargain and would be tradeable in a heartbeat.
This is getting ridiculous, he is down to 26.7% for the season. I'm fine with him staying on the floor because of everything else he brings, but he took 11 three pointers last night (and hit 2), and is just under 5 attempts per game on the season. Baseball players who can't hit remain in the lineup all the time because they have a great glove, but they don't hit cleanup.
If Smart maintains this for a whole season, statheads will still be studying and trying to explain the statistical anomaly that is Marcus Smart twenty years from now. In terms of raw unadjusted box score:
The Celtics are +134 points so far this season in the 56% of possible minutes Smart has played.
The Celtics are +12 points in the other 44% of minutes Smart has not been on the court.
And, he would probably have the lowest FG% of all time. It's just that he does so many other things so well, and has relatively few other negative plays, which makes up for it.
The Celtics are +134 points so far this season in the 56% of possible minutes Smart has played.
The Celtics are +12 points in the other 44% of minutes Smart has not been on the court.
And, he would probably have the lowest FG% of all time. It's just that he does so many other things so well, and has relatively few other negative plays, which makes up for it.
If he hit 4/11 we'd have no problem with it. Stevens *clearly* feels that the 6 "missing" points on those two three pointers is made up elsewhere.
It's not as if Stevens and Ainge are dumb. Smart is in the game in crunch time. He brings something to the table that they like.
Can he still be in the game and not shoot 11 three pointers? Or, if you want to say yesterday was an outlier, 4.8 per game, and convert at an historically low rate?
Can he? Sure. But he seems to end up with the ball at the end of possessions a lot. It's definitely odd.
Can we tell if he's using the new shooting form we heard about or if it's still the old one?
Covington's extension was really 4/$47MM but they added the remaining $15MM they had in salary cap room to his contract this year. So the money is reasonable to Covington and even in his 30s, I think 4/$47MM is a great contract for a guy who can defend and shoot threes, so long as he doesn't fall off a cliff one of these years. And given that he doesn't have a ton of wear (227 lifetime NBA games), one would think he's going to provide value through the term of his extension.
The Mavs weren't guarding him at times. If he doesn't shoot those, we are getting into Mark Wade territory (dated reference from UNLV).
I wish someone would put together his current form versus the form he was using in the "It's a different me" video (as I am technologically challenged). It looks like he is back to shooting with his arms rather than his legs. That may be a combination of his using all his energy on the defensive end plus having not fully healed ankles.
I'm going to go with no contract factor and not even a real bad slump. This is Marcus. He's demonstrated over his past 5+ seasons of basketball that he's a sub-.300 shooter from behind the arc. Factor in variance for a 28% shooter and you will have months around 20% just as you'll have months around 35%. In November this year, Smart is shooting 3's at 24% (12-50).......each of the last two seasons he's been worse during the month of March. Last season, 19% (12-64) and the prior March at 14% (8 for yikes......57!). We may not have even seen the worst 3-point shooting of the year from Smart yet!
I usually lean toward Doug Gottlieb from his Oak State days or Abdul Abdullah for the locals.......but kudos on the Wade reference.
My favorite Gottlieb click with his pants on backwards.
Do I get extra credit if I say that the current Cs defense looks a lot like the "Amoeba"? That UNLV team is still like my favorite non-Cs team of all time.
Being half Armenian and a basketball junkie I grew up a YUGE Tarkanian and Rebel fan. Reggie Theus was my favorite player as a youth but I also loved that Final Four team with Wade and Gerald Paddio. I was in heaven that year in New Orleans for the Final Four with my Providence Friars and UNLV both in the house!! Had a sandwich standing next to Dickie V and his wife, watched Bobby Huggins pass out at the bar face first onto the floor (or was that the Tampa Final Four?).
Correlation vs Causation?
Yeah like when Kyrie is hitting back-to-back 3's upon Smart entering the game and hunkered down in the corner as he did last night. There's value in that as nobody wishes in a long 3 from the weak side better than Marcus. It's the intangibles that matter.
/snarky
My son is well tired of listening to me bitch every other night about both Smart and Rozier and their epic brickitude.
I remain a skeptic on many of the metrics.
But Smart is somehow a net positive on the scoreboard pretty much ever night. As the sample size continues to grow, I'm at a loss as to how to explain it.
Thing is that the opposing D are just going to keep dropping off him to go to other players because he hasn't proved that he can hit the 3. I would like to see him drive to the hoop more often, but, once again, they are just going to back off him because of his lack of 3 ability.
The problem is he can't drive to the hoop and make shots either. Maybe his driving to the hoop would open up some kick outs, which he is good at, but other teams shouldn't be too concerned with him in the paint either. He's shooting 27% from two this season which is well below his career mark so hopefully there is some room for improvement there, but right now he just cannot put the ball in the basket from anywhere but the free throw line.
Because they want to make a major free agent signing this summer and locking up the floor-spacing defensive roleplayer is icing on the cake. His extension makes the ensuing 4/47 really easy to trade if their big splash is someone like LeBron (and really, wouldn't it be just like James to take over a franchise like the Sixers now that they have their foundational stars in place?).
It's even usable in a sign & trade for someone like Bradley if they do land one of the superstars. Bradley's tailor made for that team given that they run the offense through Simmons and have Fultz as a secondary creator.
They drop off him from the three point line. But as I pointed out above, and as this article also observes, you simply don't drop off someone in a dangerous position near the hoop, no matter how bad they are. All your instincts, coaching, and common sense tell players to collapse on someone near the hoop. Doesn't matter if its Marcus Smart. And he consistently gets into those positions and makes good plays when he doesn't shoot.
He's playing starters minutes as is often on the floor with the first unit, each of whom also have enormous individual net positives. This is what +/- says when you win 15 in a row......your guys playing the most minutes will have huge net positive numbers and Smart is on the floor with most of the higher usage 5-man units.
I feel a lot of what he brings to the table defensively offsets his horrific shooting......but make no mistake, when Kyrie and Jaylen are shooting as they have and Smart is on the floor with them his +/- numbers are going to be inflated some. I do give him plenty of credit for the defensive side of the ball and the closeouts on Curry and Thompson in the Oakland game. That was all him......when other Celtics are hitting 3's while he's on the floor it really isn't him but he gets credit per some metrics.
He's also on the floor a lot with Rozier, Semi, and some hodgepodge of Larkin, Morris, Baynes, etc. That four defender, one scorer lineup is getting a ton of play lately, yet he is still always at the top of plus minus. And generally four of those guys aren't doing jack offensively, himself included.
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So one thing that would be hard to capture, even in on-off, is the way that players like Jaylen and Kyrie are improving on defense. Obviously he contributes heavily to a culture of max effort, but I also imagine that someone who is as technically obsessed with basketball as Kyrie clearly is probably learns things from him. Tatum has specifically mentioned Smart as being a big influence on defense.
This is super ad-hoc/throwing reasons at the wall, but there are very plausible benefits Marcus *could* be providing that would be hard to capture even in adjusted on-off metrics, because some of the benefit is in areas that are usually attributed to coaching.
Of course, that suggests that the team *isn't* getting much benefit from him jacking up 11 threes in a game, and that he needs to cut that shit out.
"Marcus Smart has the best Second Half Net Rating in the NBA at a staggering 25.3. Numero uno. Kevin Durant is second at 24.8."
+1
Its simple, Smart needs to dribble drive to the hoop instead of settling for jumpers. This would lead to:
(1) getting a layup if no one stops him OR
(2) a defender trying to stop him, Marcus scoring a contested layup, drawing a foul, or missing a close-range shot which leads to Marcus bullying his way for an off. rebound OR
(3) drawing two defenders which leads to a kick out 3-pointer or an assist to a cutting teammate
My question is, who has he been on the court with? Can the amount of +134 be divvied up between Smart and the other players? When Smart is on the floor are they playing a different type of game than when he is not on the floor?
I'm not necessarily trying to dispute his worth, just trying to better understand.
Marcus more or less splits his court time with both units. He comes early at the start of each half (usually for Tatum), plays with the remaining starters as they sub-out, anchors the 2nd unit, sits towards the middle of the 2nd and 4th and then comes in to close the half (usually for Morris).
Eye test tells me that he's really effective when he's out there with the starters, particularly when Kyrie and Al are on the court. These lineups play to his strength. He can make the hustle play to extend the possession or get the team out into transition. He contributes on defense in a multitude of ways because of both skill and versatility. On offense, his game is more tempered, as he plays the roll of facilitator both with his screening and his ball distribution. He also has a nice little hi-lo pick and roll game with Al.
Where Marcus struggles is where the team struggles and that is 2nd unit half-court offense. Marcus tends to be the primary option in these sets. I think the reason for this is: (1) Brad coaching the team to take the open shot; (2) Marcus having the open shot because defenses sag off him; and (3) there being few other options if Tatum isn't aggressively seeking his shot and Morris' mid-range game isn't clicking. Luckily, the 2nd unit has a habit of not getting bogged down in half court sets because they play defense, rebound and get out in transition where they are better (still not great or even good but better).
In terms of his value, when he's out there with the starters it seems to be when the team plays their best (ending halves and 3rd quarter) and while the 2nd unit has its flaws it's still productive if they get stops. So, his +/- ratings aren't all that surprising to me. Marcus' shooting and shot selection may be a cause of regional insanity but the guy contributes in literally every other way imaginable.
Part of the problem with understanding Marcus' value is perception. Inherently, we can understand a player's potential value by comparing them to someone else. Marcus doesn't have good comps. His size, motor, skill set, flaws and impacts are very unique. So it becomes tough to analyze his value through that type of contextual framework.
As an aside, Monday's game seemed to be a bit of an outlier in that everything that could go wrong for the 2nd unit did: they weren't getting stops on defense, so they weren't getting transition points; as a result were stuck in half court sets; Morris couldn't hit anything and Tatum wasn't attacking; and the Mavs left Marcus open and he was missing the open shot.
Through 18 games...
Kyrie Irving's raw +/- is +124 (slightly worse than Smart's) and he has played 66% of the available minutes
Al Horford's raw +/- is +158 (the team is actually negative when Average Al is off the floor) and he has played in 60% of the available minutes
So, Horford has actually been better (he has a positive raw +/- in every single game he's played this season which is sort of amazing). If Smart is paired with Horford disproportionately then that is a possible argument for causation / correlation.
Kyrie Irving's raw +/- is +124 (slightly worse than Smart's) and he has played 66% of the available minutes
Al Horford's raw +/- is +158 (the team is actually negative when Average Al is off the floor) and he has played in 60% of the available minutes
So, Horford has actually been better (he has a positive raw +/- in every single game he's played this season which is sort of amazing). If Smart is paired with Horford disproportionately then that is a possible argument for causation / correlation.
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Yes, good post by jasail.
" excessively deferential" is how it looks sometimes with that unit. But I wonder if we're seeing the results of the schedule changes.
Is it possible that that the cadence of every other day games is robbing the team of those full practice days that they would normally have had?
I'm not sure that it's a question of deference as much as the offense stalling from a shortage of competent facilitators. When there were more back-to-backs, there were also more gaps with 2-3 days off. At least I think so. Now, their off day seems to be focused on recovery and walkthroughs. If so, Smart and Rozier are frequently the only people on the floor with any experience in the system, and Rozier passes like an average center.
The second unit should improve their flow, once they get some better reps.
Thanks for taking time to reply to my questions. Since the other half doesn't like basketball I follow the Celtics through box scores, which don't present the whole picture.
And thanks to others for their input, too.
If you get League Pass, you can watch the games on your computer. Or you can tape them and watch them when the -Ette is out of the house (or asleep, like I do).
The interesting question is whether Smart should start to minimize the impact of his terrible shooting.
If the goal was to maximize Smart's production, then it would be a no brainer to give him more time with the starters.
But it may not be that simple. It would make Rozier the bench PG, a role he is ill suited for. Or Larkin, but Shane has contributed at times but not played his way into the regular rotation yet.
And the defense of the bench unit, its calling card, takes a hit if Smart goes to the starting lineup.
It might be that he is more valuable to the team in his current role than he would be as a starter.
If the goal was to maximize Smart's production, then it would be a no brainer to give him more time with the starters.
But it may not be that simple. It would make Rozier the bench PG, a role he is ill suited for. Or Larkin, but Shane has contributed at times but not played his way into the regular rotation yet.
And the defense of the bench unit, its calling card, takes a hit if Smart goes to the starting lineup.
It might be that he is more valuable to the team in his current role than he would be as a starter.
Give Smart a shooter to work with on the second unit and have him drive more than shoot the deep ball.
I think right now, that's how you get the most out of him.
I think right now, that's how you get the most out of him.
Yeah, but too much time involved. With baseball it's easy to do something else while following the game. And watching the Bruins take a chunk of my time.