Sizemore Sample Sizes Succently Stated

[yecul]

What he wants to say is that he wishes Boston would sign his favorite players.

But he knows he can't do that. So he makes up all this bullshit. He's a smart guy who can articulate a point, so he can lay out an argument. 
 
Unfortunately, like most emotional arguments, it does not stand up to scrutiny.
 
We're engaging in a giant fanboy temper tantrum that merely looks like a coherent planned argument. Take it in whatever direction you want. Counter any point you want. He will keep saying the same thing because his core feeling -- desire to root for his favs -- cannot be satiated by logic.

 

[keninten]

I`m not very articulate so I don`t post much, but I read all of the Red Sox, minor league, adopt a prospect, MLB, and yankee forums. I like the different views of course. This thread is a good example of what trolls do to a site. What happened to Grady in this thread? One poster is baiting everyone into a ridiculous debate. I`m a pretty busy guy and wish I could just read some good debate on baseball. People who run this site spend more time and energy than me and will keep me reading but I wish you guys could ignore this idiot. You`re time is better spent talking baseball not arguing with an idiot. I suppose if you booted people like this he`d just come back as someone else. Sorry to hijack this thread but I think it already was. Vent over.

 

[Plympton91]

I`m not very articulate so I don`t post much, but I read all of the Red Sox, minor league, adopt a prospect, MLB, and yankee forums. I like the different views of course. This thread is a good example of what trolls do to a site. What happened to Grady in this thread? One poster is baiting everyone into a ridiculous debate. I`m a pretty busy guy and wish I could just read some good debate on baseball. People who run this site spend more time and energy than me and will keep me reading but I wish you guys could ignore this idiot. You`re time is better spent talking baseball not arguing with an idiot. I suppose if you booted people like this he`d just come back as someone else. Sorry to hijack this thread but I think it already was. Vent over.

 
I'm sorry you feel that way.  I'd encourage you to look back at post number 1, post number 3, and post number 11  in this thread and honestly consider who was baiting everyone into a ridiculous debate.  
 
If discussing what sample size is needed to determine that the probability of Grady Sizemore being a productive major leaguer in 2014 is sufficiently low as to release him, especially when he's taking a roster spot of a guy who had a 148 OPS+ against righthanded pitchers last season, isn't a valid and interesting argument, then this Board has lost all meaning.  And if the response to every one of those comparisons is going to be, "Well by virtue of WAR it doesn't really matter whether you use reasonably good player A or reasonably bad player B during a given month," then this Board has lost all purpose.
 
But consider your message, and the message of others received.  Shouting down dissent has worked.   There's lots of things to discuss, why focus ona stuff other people don't want.

 

[keninten]

 
I'm sorry you feel that way.  I'd encourage you to look back at post number 1, post number 3, and post number 11  in this thread and honestly consider who was baiting everyone into a ridiculous debate.  
 
If discussing what sample size is needed to determine that the probability of Grady Sizemore being a productive major leaguer in 2014 is sufficiently low as to release him, especially when he's taking a roster spot of a guy who had a 148 OPS+ against righthanded pitchers last season, isn't a valid and interesting argument, then this Board has lost all meaning.  And if the response to every one of those comparisons is going to be, "Well by virtue of WAR it doesn't really matter whether you use reasonably good player A or reasonably bad player B during a given month," then this Board has lost all purpose.
 
But consider your message, and the message of others received.  Shouting down dissent has worked.   There's lots of things to discuss, why focus ona stuff other people don't want.

Ok now I`m the sucker. I reread alot of the posts, not just 1,3,11. You just seem to have a big desire to prove yourself smarter than anyone else. Too bad because you have some good points occasionally but can`t seem to want to give anyone else credit for any points they have. Plus you`d actually be smarter if you could learn other viewpoints besides your own. It`s not shouting down dissent on my part. I can now see the reason there was a sandbox. End of all ranting on this subject, my hijack is ova.

 

[URI]

From the mouths of babes...
 
Lets bring the focus back to Grady Sizemore.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Something I noticed while looking at Sizemores numbers this year. He's been awful batting 1st or 2nd. In his last 55 PAs he's bat at the top of the order for 40 of them. Maybe he has some sort of Crawford-esque thing in which he's uncomfortable hitting that high in the order after a couple years off. I know he was primarily a leadoff hitter throughout his career, but things can change. He also has a reverse split right now with a .575 OPS vs RHP when he has a career .885 OPS vs RHP. Give the guy some time. He missed two years.
 
Using his 2010 or 2011 numbers to project anything going forward is ridiculous. He played a total of 104 major league games in those two years and was half crippled. 

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

 
If discussing what sample size is needed to determine that the probability of Grady Sizemore being a productive major leaguer in 2014 is sufficiently low as to release him, especially when he's taking a roster spot of a guy who had a 148 OPS+ against righthanded pitchers last season, isn't a valid and interesting argument, then this Board has lost all meaning. 

 
From my POV, the question of how many more ABs Grady should get (if he doesn't improve) is both interesting and valid. 
 
However, if you are seriously suggesting that the Sox should dump Grady right now, well that argument IS NOT interesting or valid.  First, and probably most importantly, the Sox aren't going to sign a guy who has been out of baseball for two years to a potential $6M contract and cut him after a bad month unless there were exceptional extenuating circumstances. 
 
You are entitled to your opinion that Nava should be playing over Grady, and that's fine, but that's not the way the Sox do things.  The Sox are going to give Grady every chance to determine how successful he can be.  Even if Grady is struggling after another month - which seems to be the time where posters agree the Sox will need to do something - I'd guess that Grady comes down with some sort of Hellenic flu to get him ABs out of the big leagues. 
 
The Sox have made an investment in Grady, and given our management team, I suspect they want to see what they can get out of Grady not just in this year but in years to come.  Maybe the Sox will lose out on some production versus Nava, but it's still early and the Sox apparently can afford it this year since no one is running away and hiding.

 

[mabrowndog]

"Succently"?? Did I miss an inside joke somewhere?

 

[WenZink]

Something I noticed while looking at Sizemores numbers this year. He's been awful batting 1st or 2nd. In his last 55 PAs he's bat at the top of the order for 40 of them. Maybe he has some sort of Crawford-esque thing in which he's uncomfortable hitting that high in the order after a couple years off. I know he was primarily a leadoff hitter throughout his career, but things can change. He also has a reverse split right now with a .575 OPS vs RHP when he has a career .885 OPS vs RHP. Give the guy some time. He missed two years.
 
Using his 2010 or 2011 numbers to project anything going forward is ridiculous. He played a total of 104 major league games in those two years and was half crippled. 

 
Well the 2014 sample is so small that it's difficult to derive anything meaningful.  Grady started hot at the plate, then slumped right around the time they moved him from CF to the corner and tried him in the leadoff spot.  It may just be that trying to learn how to play the corners detracted from his confidence/concentration.  Who knows?  Time will tell, and as long as his slump is not related to physical injuries, I trust he'll come around to some extent.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Sizemore had one brutal week, from April 15 to 22, where he went 1 for 26. Other than that, he has had very good numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if he had some leg issues during that week. Or maybe it was just a slump.
 
Who knows how he will hold up, or how many games we'll get from him, but just like we shouldn't overreact to his good game tonight, we shouldn't overreact to his one horrible week either. I think if he's healthy, he'll hit pretty well.
 
What the team should do with him in terms of playing time, lineup spot or roster decisions will all have to continue be scouting and/or medical decisions for a while yet, as one bad week or one good week will still have a huge impact on his numbers for quite a while. 

 

[Van Everyman]

The Reanimation of Grady Sizemore: Part VI, per Speier

.343/.395/.571 line through the first 10 games.

Followed by a 2-for-31 slump which depressed us all.

.320/.443/.440 over his last seven games and 30 plate appearances.

And a walkoff against the tram he almost signed with instead of the Sox, prompted this from Farrell:

"Nights like tonight," the manager added, "go a long way in continuing to rebuild Grady."

http://m.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2014/05/07/grady-sizemore-walkoff-reminder-what-could-hav

 

[Devizier]

I think Sizemore is probably the roughly .300 OBP, .400 SLG player that he's shown to be so far this season. And that the Red Sox are probably okay with that, because Jackie Bradley isn't even at that level at the moment.

 

[TomTerrific]

"Succently"?? Did I miss an inside joke somewhere?

 
The only joke you missed was that a google search for the word "succently" brings up this thread as the third hit.

 

[czar]

I think Sizemore is probably the roughly .300 OBP, .400 SLG player that he's shown to be so far this season. And that the Red Sox are probably okay with that, because Jackie Bradley isn't even at that level at the moment.

 
His plate discipline numbers are actually not terrible (improved O-Swing%, and O-Contact% is up, so even when he does chase, he puts it somewhere instead of whiffing). It would not be shocking for him to put up a .325-.330 OBP or so when his BABIP normalizes a bit.
 
His ISO/batted ball distance seems to support a ~.400 SLG, so a .720-.730ish OPS seems projectable, which would make him at or slightly about league average offensively. I think the Sox would take that.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
His plate discipline numbers are actually not terrible (improved O-Swing%, and O-Contact% is up, so even when he does chase, he puts it somewhere instead of whiffing). It would not be shocking for him to put up a .325-.330 OBP or so when his BABIP normalizes a bit.
 
His ISO/batted ball distance seems to support a ~.400 SLG, so a .720-.730ish OPS seems projectable, which would make him at or slightly about league average offensively. I think the Sox would take that.

Why? They have Nava in AAA who should be a hell of a lot better than that? If Sizemore's not putting up an OPS north of .800 or so I fail to see why he's on the team

 

[WenZink]

Why? They have Nava in AAA who should be a hell of a lot better than that? If Sizemore's not putting up an OPS north of .800 or so I fail to see why he's on the team

 
That sounds about right... that over the next 5 weeks or so, Sizemore can post an OPS of .800 and show that he's a better defensive option than Nava, particularly on days when Victorino isn't playing.  The league average OPS right now is .724, down a bit from last year. 

 

[Frisbetarian]

I think the Red Sox at this point are using more observational than statistical methods for evaluating Sizemore's offensive potential. His bat speed is good, he appears balanced at the plate, and he's not missing many pitches. I'm optimistic. 

 

[czar]

Why? They have Nava in AAA who should be a hell of a lot better than that? If Sizemore's not putting up an OPS north of .800 or so I fail to see why he's on the team

 
ZiPS and Steamer have Nava projected ~.670 OPS going forward, although they likely do not take his platoon splits into account (i.e., that he's really only half a player, since the Sox should bench him against LHP).
 
I don't think Nava is a slam dunk to OPS north of .800. Not even close. In an ideal world, Nava mashes righties and you platoon him/Gomes, but since both are well-below-average defenders, they need to mash for that to be a highly profitable scenario.

The other thing is that Sizemore helps provide obvious depth in the event of an issue with Victorino or Bradley (you lose this depth if you cut him and call Nava back up).
 

The league average OPS right now is .724, down a bit from last year.

I have the league average AL OPS coming in at .715 so far this year, but generally OPS increases by month. That figure also include pitcher at-bats from IL games.

 

[WenZink]

.....

I have the league average AL OPS coming in at .715 so far this year, but generally OPS increases by month. That figure also include pitcher at-bats from IL games.

 
I was just looking at Pedroia on B-Ref and, going into last night's game, he had an OPS of .722 and an OPS+ of 99.  Maybe they only use the pool of qualified hitters.
 
But your point about keeping outfield depth in the system is key. 

 

[Crazy Puppy]

 
I was just looking at Pedroia on B-Ref and, going into last night's game, he had an OPS of .722 and an OPS+ of 99.  Maybe they only use the pool of qualified hitters.

 
OPS+ is park-adjusted, I believe.

 

[williams_482]

 
I was just looking at Pedroia on B-Ref and, going into last night's game, he had an OPS of .722 and an OPS+ of 99.  Maybe they only use the pool of qualified hitters.
 
But your point about keeping outfield depth in the system is key. 

That will be the park adjustment for playing in Fenway. Fangraphs has the AL league average at .252/.323/.392 (.715) for everyone and .252/.324/.393 (.717) for non pitchers. 
 
EDIT: beaten to it. 

 

[WenZink]

 
OPS+ is park-adjusted, I believe.

 
Yes, of course it is.  I just was trying to arrive at what Grady would have to hit to approximate a "good" version of Nava, and got lost..a combination of allergy meds and early senility.  Well, while average OPS may be down, at least the average OPS+ is still the same as last year!

 

[Plympton91]

 
ZiPS and Steamer have Nava projected ~.670 OPS going forward, although they likely do not take his platoon splits into account (i.e., that he's really only half a player, since the Sox should bench him against LHP).
 
I don't think Nava is a slam dunk to OPS north of .800. Not even close. In an ideal world, Nava mashes righties and you platoon him/Gomes, but since both are well-below-average defenders, they need to mash for that to be a highly profitable scenario.

The other thing is that Sizemore helps provide obvious depth in the event of an issue with Victorino or Bradley (you lose this depth if you cut him and call Nava back up).
 

I have the league average AL OPS coming in at .715 so far this year, but generally OPS increases by month. That figure also include pitcher at-bats from IL games.

 
Do they have him at 670 "going forward" or 670 on the season given his poor start and likely limited plate appearances going forward to average out the poor start?   It seems strange to assume he'd be significantly worse from this point on in 2014 than he was in 2012, when he played the second half of the season with a wrist that needed surgery.
 
Sizemore is proving me wrong this week, but someone earlier in the thread mentioned that he had a very low BABip at that point, and this week that BABip is normalizing.  I'm interested in Czar's calculations projecting his batted ball stuff to be a .400 SLG, though I also agree with Fris that the Red Sox are most likely looking at health-related things like how well he bounces back from playing multiple days in a row and how often he's unavailable more so than results.  The ebb and flow of his slash line makes it harder to get a good handle on the underlying skill level that is left.  John Henry became a billionaire by having calculated gambles pay off more often than not.  I'm glad I don't have to make this decision, though I hope Nava goes on a tear in AAA and makes the decision obvious.

 

[TheoShmeo]

I assume that part of the calculus with Sizemore is wanting to give him a sample size that is sufficient to test exactly what he is in 2014.  After having been off so long, it may take him a little bit longer to get to a level that reflects what he can and will be in the latter half of 2014 (assuming he remains healthy).  That's a long way of saying that I hope they don't apply an arbitrary .800 OPS test or anything else of that sort to him any time soon.  It should be more about trends and progress, and reasonably anticipated future production.
 
The Sox have invested and will invest a lot of effort in Grady Sizemore's turnaround.  That doesn't mean that they have to keep around slavishly.  But it does mean, to me at least, that it would be a shame for them to see him really take off in another uniform because they didn't give him quite long enough to show himself.  I'm guessing that wont be a problem and they will be similarly gunshy about cutting and running to soon.    

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Why? They have Nava in AAA who should be a hell of a lot better than that? If Sizemore's not putting up an OPS north of .800 or so I fail to see why he's on the team

 
When an outfielder gets injured, they get to replace him with Nava. If Sizemore were gone and Nava were on the team, they'd have their pick of Brentz (716 OPS Steamer projected), Corey Brown (650), or Alex Hassan (701). For now, the expected value for the entire season for the Boston Red Sox outfield is higher with Sizemore on the major league roster and Nava in the minors. 

 

[Puffy]

It's worth pointing out Nava's strong performance so far in Pawtucket (.294/.390/.500), albeit in just 10 games. If Nava's performance in AAA indicates that he may actually be roughly what he was last year (5th in AL in OBP, 16th in OPS, 8th in BA) - and Sizemore continues to be what he has shown us to be - to me it's not a given that the current arrangement will continue indefinitely until an injury arises.
 
It would be great to know if Sizemore can actually still field CF, since it wouldn't be a bad option to send Bradley back to AAA if he continues to struggle at the plate and field Nava/Gomes, Sizemore, and Victorino out there. Really Nava's demotion had plenty to do with Sizemore's defensive woes, as well as his own poor performance (and remaining option year).

 

[czar]

Do they have him at 670 "going forward" or 670 on the season given his poor start and likely limited plate appearances going forward to average out the poor start?   It seems strange to assume he'd be significantly worse from this point on in 2014 than he was in 2012, when he played the second half of the season with a wrist that needed surgery.
 
Sizemore is proving me wrong this week, but someone earlier in the thread mentioned that he had a very low BABip at that point, and this week that BABip is normalizing.  I'm interested in Czar's calculations projecting his batted ball stuff to be a .400 SLG, though I also agree with Fris that the Red Sox are most likely looking at health-related things like how well he bounces back from playing multiple days in a row and how often he's unavailable more so than results.  The ebb and flow of his slash line makes it harder to get a good handle on the underlying skill level that is left.  John Henry became a billionaire by having calculated gambles pay off more often than not.  I'm glad I don't have to make this decision, though I hope Nava goes on a tear in AAA and makes the decision obvious.

You're right -- that's my slip, I should have double checked the projections (just going to the FG page would have worked). They have Nava at .705 (Zips) and .742 (steamer) going forward for the rest of the season. It's worth pointing out that most believe his poor numbers are purely BABIP driven. Nava's K% and BB% were only 1-2 points higher/lower than pre-season projects had him.

As far as Sizemore, I haven't run him through a HR/FB (which I'd need to get xHR to calc SLG) but it's worth pointing out that Sizemore has the 67th highest batted ball distance (HR/fly balls) out of 227 hitters this season (287.6 ft). It puts him ahead of a lot of big names. Sizemore's LD% is north of 18%, and given that his speed score is well above average, his BABIP should be probably between .300 and .310 (it's .280 right now). Again, haven't it run it though xBABIP with new weights, but you can make pretty accurate guesses using LD% alone.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

According to this article out today by Bmac, Sizemore is off restriction and they will now start scheduling him to play 6 to 7 games a week. 
 

 
“To say that he's up to six or seven games a week, I think that's conceivable at this point,” John Farrell said. “Where we've come over the last six weeks is drastically different than coming out of spring training, where we had to balance a number of games per week. In my mind, there's probably no restrictions at this point.”
Because health concerns kept him out of action for two full seasons, the Red Sox wanted to bring Sizemore along gradually at first. He didn’t start games on more than three days in a row until April 18 to 20. He didn’t start games on more than four days in a row until May 1-4.

 

[joe dokes]

According to this article out today by Bmac, Sizemore is off restriction and they will now start scheduling him to play 6 to 7 games a week. 
 

 
So unless Sizemore breaks or gets kidnapped, Daniel Nava can start buying green bananas.

 

[Year of Yaz]

So unless Sizemore breaks or gets kidnapped, Daniel Nava can start buying green bananas.

If he does play 6-7 games a week it doesn't seem to make sense to keep two defensively challenged 4th outfielders. Would it make more sense to have a guy who can play all three positions like Darren Lewis used to do?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

If he does play 6-7 games a week it doesn't seem to make sense to keep two defensively challenged 4th outfielders. Would it make more sense to have a guy who can play all three positions like Darren Lewis used to do?

Who did you have in mind for that position? 

 

[Year of Yaz]

Who did you have in mind for that position?

It shouldn't be too costly to make a trade for that type of player.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

It shouldn't be too costly to make a trade for that type of player.

Who? Name a few. If you are going to bring this type of thing up you need to put some names out there along with the players you would be willing to trade for one of them. 

 

[Year of Yaz]

Who? Name a few. If you are going to bring this type of thing up you need to put some names out there along with the players you would be willing to trade for one of them.

The only roster I follow closely is that of the Sox so I can't answer who they might target. I'm more interested in opinions on what skills the two non-starting outfielders should have.

 

[radsoxfan]

According to this article out today by Bmac, Sizemore is off restriction and they will now start scheduling him to play 6 to 7 games a week. 
 

 
Well I guess that would imply he is more than a platoon partner for Gomes.  Or maybe he is going to start a couple of times a week in center?
 
I think playing Grady 6 to 7 times a week is asking a lot.  And I'm not sure his performance so far really warrants that type of playing time commitment yet either.  
 
As I've said before, I think he should be a 3 to 4 game a week player, starting primarily against RHP. 

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Is there a distinction to be made between starting and playing?

Maybe this really means that off days aren't really off days for him. If Gomes starts, JF might ph Sizemore for him/put him in left from, say, the 7th inning on. And vice versa.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Why? They have Nava in AAA who should be a hell of a lot better than that? If Sizemore's not putting up an OPS north of .800 or so I fail to see why he's on the team

What makes you think Nava should be "a hell of a lot better" than that? Last year screams fluky career year. His BABIP of .352 isn't likely to happen again.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

The only roster I follow closely is that of the Sox so I can't answer who they might target. I'm more interested in opinions on what skills the two non-starting outfielders should have.

So look at the rosters of other teams and do a little research. Put some thought into this. You were the one who brought it up. Don't expect others to do your work for you.

 

[Plympton91]

What makes you think Nava should be "a hell of a lot better" than that? Last year screams fluky career year. His BABIP of .352 isn't likely to happen again.

 
His babip for his major league career is .321, so while .352 is very high, it's not wildly out of whack with his career to date. Batters can have consistently above average BABip, it is pitchers who are supposedly unlikely to consistently be below average.   And, his babip in 75 plate appearances in the majors this year was .167, contributing importantly to the crappy batting average.  If you're going to regress last year's, then regress this year's too.  
 
Sizemore is now at .243 / .319 / .379. with a pretty normal for him over the past 4 years he's played babip of .284, a good bit below his career average of .312 though.  For May, he's at 323/417/423, which is awesome.  We'll see if he can keep it up, though that May number is based on a .385 BABip.

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
His babip for his major league career is .321, so while .352 is very high, it's not wildly out of whack with his career to date. Batters can have consistently above average BABip, it is pitchers who are supposedly unlikely to consistently be below average.   And, his babip in 75 plate appearances in the majors this year was .167, contributing importantly to the crappy batting average.  If you're going to regress last year's, then regress this year's too.  
 
Sizemore is now at .243 / .319 / .379. with a pretty normal for him over the past 4 years he's played babip of .284, a good bit below his career average of .312 though.  For May, he's at 323/417/423, which is awesome.  We'll see if he can keep it up, though that May number is based on a .385 BABip.

Well the .352 BABIP season is almost half of his career MLB PAs. I don't think he's going to be the player he was in 75 ABs this year, but he also isn't likely to be the player he was last year. His previous two partial years he was not significantly better than a .720-.730 OPS player which was speculated, and nowhere near an .800 OPS player.

 

[Van Everyman]

 
So unless Sizemore breaks or gets kidnapped, Daniel Nava can start buying green bananas.

Hold that banana:

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?/topic/83363-Victorino-to-get-MRI-on-left-knee

 

[Plympton91]

Well the .352 BABIP season is almost half of his career MLB PAs. I don't think he's going to be the player he was in 75 ABs this year, but he also isn't likely to be the player he was last year. His previous two partial years he was not significantly better than a .720-.730 OPS player which was speculated, and nowhere near an .800 OPS player.

Nava played the second half on 2012 with a cyst in his wrist that needed to be surgically removed after the season. Prior to the development of the cyst, he was the same player in 2012 that he was in 2013. Look at the game logs and splits. Similarly, in 2010, he was playing just as he did in 2013 until an injury derailed him. When healthy, Daniel Nava is a 380 / 440 guy against righthanded pitchers.