All about conference championship week and the first round of March Madness for the next big edge spot….!!!!
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
Neutral site early start 1H unders? Or is there another angle I’m forgetting?
Yeah. Plus normally by the time the conference championship rolls around these teams have played on 3 or 4 days in a row, and have hyper motivated defense to get to March Madness.
Yeah I’ll spend that week prior catching up on the college stuff. I’ve never not followed college at all since Covid arrived but so much of it is motivational in the conference tournaments that not having a bias seems to actually be a benefit…or at least has the past couple years.
I know that parlays (especially SGPs) are considered to be... not the best way to bet. But I'm up entering tonight +107.7 units on the season in the NBA.
For shits and giggles, I just looked at today's parlays and if I made it so none of them are SGPs, the value goes way, way up. Which makes sense, since in-game stuff is often correlated.
I guess the question is, is it worth it to do this every day? Do no SGPs and just diversify? I guess I could do the work and actually try to figure it out, but I'm also exceptionally lazy.
For shits and giggles, I just looked at today's parlays and if I made it so none of them are SGPs, the value goes way, way up. Which makes sense, since in-game stuff is often correlated.
I guess the question is, is it worth it to do this every day? Do no SGPs and just diversify? I guess I could do the work and actually try to figure it out, but I'm also exceptionally lazy.
Refresh my memory on last years results and the pattern of them. Iirc, there was a large upswing and downswing unless I’m thinking something else. 100+ units is pretty awesome!! Congrats!
Thank you! Last year was pretty much the same, but I started at the beginning of December and got to around +90. Similar to last year, had a big downswing this year (I think I was +70, then +40, then had a few great nights and got to +107), but I'm pretty happy with how it's going this year to say the least.
Seeing this prop out there at +600 that I think is very good value. It’s a Yes/No to an NBA player scoring 70 points from now until the end of the regular season. Obv the Yes is +600.
I’d continue the Bucks fade until they improve or until the market adjusts. For now, I like Wolves -4.5.
Other game is a perfect sandwich trap for the Warriors in hosting a Hornets team that is playing well in between the Lakers win and the Nuggets game on Sunday. Knowing Charlotte played last night is all the more reason for a flat effort. I’d take +12.5 and look at some ancillary markets, 1H, 1Q, first to 20, etc if you want to mess around w some SGP.
Other game is a perfect sandwich trap for the Warriors in hosting a Hornets team that is playing well in between the Lakers win and the Nuggets game on Sunday. Knowing Charlotte played last night is all the more reason for a flat effort. I’d take +12.5 and look at some ancillary markets, 1H, 1Q, first to 20, etc if you want to mess around w some SGP.
I don’t beleive I ever told the Ernie DiGregorio story here. I’ll send it PM by request. He didn’t fix a game he played in I will say that but you guys will love it.
Lester Quinones breaks the unwritten rule in scoring rather than running the clock out up 11 and we lose by the hook as Warriors win by 13. Like what in the serious fuck? Game was over.
There were a couple seconds between the shot clock and game clock; can't blame young Lester for not taking the turnover there. Also, the Warriors had pulled all their starters a couple minutes earlier while the Hornets left theirs in ... which is fine, but if you're gonna keep your starters in against the likes of Lester Q and Gui Santos to make the final score look more cosmetic, you don't really get to whine about "unwritten rules," imo.
Also, in a "spirit of the bet" kinda way, the Warriors dominated the game, and led by 21 going to into the 4th, so if you picked the Hornets +12.5 you don't really get to grumble.
Wow down by a whole 3 possessions with 12 min to go. Surprised they didn’t just dribble the clock out right then and there to secure the cover. The game was over and 99% of teams dribble the clock out there, the coaches were already shaking hands expecting same. That’s how the NBA end games work. It’s just annoying.There were a couple seconds between the shot clock and game clock; can't blame young Lester for not taking the turnover there. Also, the Warriors had pulled all their starters a couple minutes earlier while the Hornets left theirs in ... which is fine, but if you're gonna keep your starters in against the likes of Lester Q and Gui Santos to make the final score look more cosmetic, you don't really get to whine about "unwritten rules," imo.
Also, in a "spirit of the bet" kinda way, the Warriors dominated the game, and led by 21 going to into the 4th, so if you picked the Hornets +12.5 you don't really get to grumble.
When players do an end-of-game shot clock burn the NBA doesn't count it as a turnover.There were a couple seconds between the shot clock and game clock; can't blame young Lester for not taking the turnover there. Also, the Warriors had pulled all their starters a couple minutes earlier while the Hornets left theirs in ... which is fine, but if you're gonna keep your starters in against the likes of Lester Q and Gui Santos to make the final score look more cosmetic, you don't really get to whine about "unwritten rules," imo.
Also, in a "spirit of the bet" kinda way, the Warriors dominated the game, and led by 21 going to into the 4th, so if you picked the Hornets +12.5 you don't really get to grumble.
Makes sense that this year's bench Warriors wouldn't know that
The shot clock burn does a good job of diffusing any angst in a hard-fought game.
Stat stuffing does the complete opposite.
Ah, did not know that! Thanks. Must have changed the rule recently, cos I feel like I’ve heard coaches use the “didn’t wanna take a TO” defense semi-recently.
Still think it’s kind of a silly “unwritten rule,” though. If you’re supposed to lay down your sword on other possessions than the final possession, why does that apply only to the penultimate possession and not also the third or fourth or fifth from last possessions? (Etc.) If it’s bad form cos the game is well out of reach, why do teams keep playing at all in 40-point games in the 4th quarter?
To me, the “unwritten rule” should apply only to the last possession. Otherwise, institute a skunk rule. Or: just play some defense in garbage time, instead of getting cranky and shoving a G-Leaguer who’s just trying to earn his keep in the NBA.
Edit: Also, are we even having this convo if HRB had just made the smart move of putting his money on the resurgent Warriors -12.5?
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It is a recent change. Tatum also thought it was a TO and wouldn't catch a Derrick White pass at the end of a game a few months ago. Scalabrine was laughing and White had to give Tatum a talking to... So you're in good company.
Doing it early takes the temperature down in these blowouts. What was Kerr's reaction post-game? anything short of a young player making a dumb play would be sub-optimal
Not sure about postgame, but IIRC right after it happened he was chatting amicably with Grant and/or Bridges, seemingly saying, “WTF it wasn’t the last possession!” while also smiling, patting them on the shoulder, and generally lowering the temperature.
Dude just signed a two-year $35M extension and is riding a 10-2 streak so I imagine he’s in pretty good spirits these days. Ditto Lester Quiñones, who just got his two-way deal guaranteed with the departure of Cory Joseph. In most cases, Kerr and the team follow the unwritten “penultimate possession” rule, but I doubt he was of a mind in the post-game presser to call out young Lester for one mild infringement.
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If we take out HRB's gambling slants we'll lose half the content around here.Edit: Also, are we even having this convo if HRB had just made the smart move of putting his money on the resurgent Warriors -12.5?
The bigger story is Bron ducking the Warriors to go play in the Spurs game last night.
Doesn't he realize there is Play-In home court at stake?
I am so ready for Western Conference Play-In madness.
We'll get some combo of KD, Booker, Bron, AD, Curry, Dray, Klay, Luka, and Kyrie not in the playoffs
Sixers/Bucks early afternoon total opened at 226, was at low as 224.5 overnight until being pounded up to 234! Finished at 217….in case you were concerned that this angle may be drying up and has run it’s course. Uhhh, nope!
And plenty of in game opportunities despite first quarter and first half printing!
Maybe the Suns can sustain this pace to score 180 points. We shall see.
My goodness, that Lakers-Suns game might have been one of the easier under smash opportunities of the season. Reloaded a few times in game and ended up with a +40 unit day as the adjusted lines made no sense (mid 240s at +180 and in game totals of 253 -110). These are two of the slower paced teams in the 2nd half. So easy to see a completely different second half.
The 4th quarter unders when we expect pace to change during these wild Wild West quarters 1-3 continue to print as the algos aren’t picking it up.
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A bit random, but I just checked my player activity statements at DK and FanDuel since they opened in MA (doing taxes). I have over $50k in promotions, which doesn’t include sporting tickets, golf tournaments or annual prizes from DraftKings. That’s with being up on both sites since inception, though I was in a hole at FanDuel for a while which is where the bulk of those rewards came from ($40k).
Lifetime I have 55k in financial promotions from DK as I used it in prior years in NH. Again lifetime that’s with 6 figure withdrawals (or negative deposits as they call it). They finally said no more deposit bonuses after years of withdrawing and hitting up the host before major sporting events to re-deposit.
Just an important reminder about how much management of these books can add up as they are still in heavy courtship mode.
Ceasars continues to offer trip based rewards vs financial. Adele tickets in Vegas, complimentary stay or Atlantis in Bahamas… would prefer the bonus bets. Given they have no casino in MA and don’t seem to have a local VIP presence it’s a bit harder.
Wynn just left MA but never really offered anything before limiting action after tailing HRB in 6th man of the year and UFC action.
I’m guessing Fanatics will eventually be a great source given their partnerships, but we’ll see. They still aren’t up and running in MA right? I haven’t used MGM much. Anyone have insight on their promos?
Time to start working on some of the other books…
Lifetime I have 55k in financial promotions from DK as I used it in prior years in NH. Again lifetime that’s with 6 figure withdrawals (or negative deposits as they call it). They finally said no more deposit bonuses after years of withdrawing and hitting up the host before major sporting events to re-deposit.
Just an important reminder about how much management of these books can add up as they are still in heavy courtship mode.
Ceasars continues to offer trip based rewards vs financial. Adele tickets in Vegas, complimentary stay or Atlantis in Bahamas… would prefer the bonus bets. Given they have no casino in MA and don’t seem to have a local VIP presence it’s a bit harder.
Wynn just left MA but never really offered anything before limiting action after tailing HRB in 6th man of the year and UFC action.
I’m guessing Fanatics will eventually be a great source given their partnerships, but we’ll see. They still aren’t up and running in MA right? I haven’t used MGM much. Anyone have insight on their promos?
Time to start working on some of the other books…
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With 8 of todays 11 NBA games completed and two others well underway there has yet to be one game to finish over the closing total....one day after all 3 of Saturdays games failed to get the Over home as well. It looks like we will have the first 10 games of the day being Unders with only the Kings/Clippers game to go. These numbers have been blown out to ridiculous levels in many cases. Worth keeping an eye on.
Lakers/Suns late in the 2nd was exhibiting classic under behavior. Yes, really. Talked with HRB a bit about why elsewhere, but for those curious, beyond the very applicable Sunday early start angle...
Consider how a lot of the scoring got there, to that point. This wasn't KD going off. AD had a quiet first. LeBron had a good first but that was off the norm too, and given that was the case, he was probably going let up. Meanwhile. DLo and Allen looked like they had both input the Konami code. With the Lakers likely to take a slower pace going forward and less use of role players from both sides to both offenses, you're going to not only get fewer looks but lesser looks because LA was down so much, in part to try to control the game, but also in part because James doesn't have as much as he used to.
That expected approach matters with a star, top-heavy team like LA. Role players going off simply isn't sustainable, and I used what I like to call the contrary eye test: Yeah, it looks headed for over, but why it's happening isn't consistent with these teams as they are constructed. Short of maybe Golden State, there aren't too many teams that operate like these two in composition, of stars to drop off point of next best option (though I love me some Josh Okogie in a non-bets sense).
Consider how a lot of the scoring got there, to that point. This wasn't KD going off. AD had a quiet first. LeBron had a good first but that was off the norm too, and given that was the case, he was probably going let up. Meanwhile. DLo and Allen looked like they had both input the Konami code. With the Lakers likely to take a slower pace going forward and less use of role players from both sides to both offenses, you're going to not only get fewer looks but lesser looks because LA was down so much, in part to try to control the game, but also in part because James doesn't have as much as he used to.
That expected approach matters with a star, top-heavy team like LA. Role players going off simply isn't sustainable, and I used what I like to call the contrary eye test: Yeah, it looks headed for over, but why it's happening isn't consistent with these teams as they are constructed. Short of maybe Golden State, there aren't too many teams that operate like these two in composition, of stars to drop off point of next best option (though I love me some Josh Okogie in a non-bets sense).
I’m not doing those UFC write ups in that distant jungle if Indonesia anymore, and they aren’t allowed here, but if anyone wants my plays or write ups I’ll be more than happy to send PM. Since the holiday break the +1000 and up props have been like QE so much that I’m going to begin calling it QE!
No. Tried putting it here last year for those who were most interested in it. Several asshats complained (don’t take it personal I still love you but if you complain about me helping make people money you are an asshat. I won’t argue this) and mods listened by moving it to our Indonesia forum whatever the name of it is, some people couldn’t access it, I’d miss responses bc I never go there, etc. So no it won’t be posted unless it’s here which it’s been made clear that won’t happen so I’m offering to send PM to those interested.
Dejounte Murray triple double prop should be live tonight in a game against Utah that should have plenty of points and possessions. I haven’t even looked at a number so can’t make suggestion. Points was 24.5 if it’s still there I’d imagine he goes over that. His usage skyrockets without Trae around…..it’s similar to the Brunson without Doncic games of last season.
Looks like +900 on Fanduel might be the best price BUT if you build your own parlay with 10+ rebounds and 10+ assists you can get +980.
I was hoping for a better number like +1500 bc triple doubles are freakin hard to achieve but there are no secrets here with Trae out so not the best value here. Even still, if people have any free bets or want to throw pizza money on it there are worse things to have at nearly 10-1.
First half under hit.
Bulls +4 at home tomorrow on a back to back after losing to the Pistons at home. They face Cleveland who is also on a back-back after a buzzer beater victory tonight. I took some Bulls.
Love following all your insights here peeps. Riding a 5 team under parlay tonight, last leg is Heat/Blazers under 212 for +2435. Making these middle of the week nights exciting.
11 games today too….and we were one 75-pt 4Q in Cavs/Mavs from 11 Unders today. The market is beginning to adjust as several overnights are seeing the Under pounded. Grizz/Wolves down 6 from opener, Mavs/Raptors down 4.5, Bulls/Cavs down 5.5 and Nuggets/Kings down 4.
Sorry just seeing this now. Not really bc some of these numbers have been pounded. I’ve had family in town this week so I haven’t dug into the why….whether it’s pace, poor off, great def, or some combination caused by the long break.
Took a small futures shot/hedge on Pacific Division winner. Added Phoenix +2000 now that the Clippers are coming down off their 35-5 run and George out with a knee. Beal should be back soon from his hamstring and he was playing great up until the injury. The Suns have been lethal when their Big Three are together and despite LA having a slight scheduling advantage this price is too big to pass up with two H2H remaining and only 3.5 games separating them.
If you can digest playing a team on a 12-game losing streak tonight is the night to do it with the Wizards opening up a quick Western swing at the Lakers +9.5
I’d look at some Wizards 1H & ML at plus money too.
I’d look at some Wizards 1H & ML at plus money too.
Suns future is spicy!
These in-game (3rd/4th quarter) under opportunities continue to do well. Check out the points by quarter for last night:
No/IND: 64, 53, 65, 55
DAL/TOR: 70, 63, 65, 63 (I lost on this one. Despite a 12 point game with a minute to go where you'd expect anywhere from 0-5 points and they got..12).
MEM/MIN: 50, 53, 70 (!!!!!!!!!!), 38 (HA)
CLE/CHI: 55, 50, 54, 47. This game went to double OT and ruined what was a perfect under ladder from 218 down to 208.5. Both teams had a shot to win in in regulation when the score had 206 points. Can't do anything about OT, so should expect these from time to time.
SAC/DEN: 63, 57, 52, 41
LAL/LAC: 59, 59, 55, 55
4-2 last night and the two losses were OT and an outlier barrage of scoring in the last minute from stat pumping vs running the clock. Not bad.
These in-game (3rd/4th quarter) under opportunities continue to do well. Check out the points by quarter for last night:
No/IND: 64, 53, 65, 55
DAL/TOR: 70, 63, 65, 63 (I lost on this one. Despite a 12 point game with a minute to go where you'd expect anywhere from 0-5 points and they got..12).
MEM/MIN: 50, 53, 70 (!!!!!!!!!!), 38 (HA)
CLE/CHI: 55, 50, 54, 47. This game went to double OT and ruined what was a perfect under ladder from 218 down to 208.5. Both teams had a shot to win in in regulation when the score had 206 points. Can't do anything about OT, so should expect these from time to time.
SAC/DEN: 63, 57, 52, 41
LAL/LAC: 59, 59, 55, 55
4-2 last night and the two losses were OT and an outlier barrage of scoring in the last minute from stat pumping vs running the clock. Not bad.
Fanatics just launched today in NY…I think maybe MA too. They are offering up to $100 bet match daily for the first ten days.
Oh sweet. Yeah looks like a $100 bet and get for 10 straight days. Good find. I’m going to use them heading into March Madness and see if they’ll throw me some deposit bonuses…. The marketing budgets definitely expand near major sporting events.
For those on DK not in MA, DK is running their NBA Threesday promo where you bet on the 1st 3point scorer of the game. If you lose, you get a bonus bet based on how many 3’s are made in the game.
Normally, it’s $1 per 3 with a $25 cap ($25 is minimum bet). Today, it’s $2 per made 3 with NO cap. So, if you lose your bet, you have a decent chance of getting a free bet for basically double your initial principal.
Normally, it’s $1 per 3 with a $25 cap ($25 is minimum bet). Today, it’s $2 per made 3 with NO cap. So, if you lose your bet, you have a decent chance of getting a free bet for basically double your initial principal.