Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

SteveF

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Jul 14, 2005
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Do you maybe bet against Philly's effort/energy? Like take Claxton rebounds over or something? Brooklyn is pretty bad so I'd be worried about betting them to win or cover, though take that with a grain of salt. I stayed away from that Memphis game last night and I had the complete wrong read on it. Obviously this is the gentleman's sweep game if that's going to happen. Brooklyn is just so poorly constructed to maximize their players' talents. They aren't a team. They are a collection of assets.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Do the 76ers lay a dud in Brooklyn tonight?
I think Philly wins but like Bos/Atl I will mostly use these G3’s as a set-up for a G4 sweep/romp. Maybe like .5u on both favorites with G4 having potential Memphis-like confidence vibes regardless of win or loss.
 

Red Averages

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Quick aside here -- I will never figure out these VIP programs. Ceasar's has been in MA for a month, someone reached out to me to join their program - I did, sure why not? I initially got two different deposit bonuses from them, and after a month I've acquired 75k reward tier points. 150k in a year is apparently their top program and you get free hotel stays, $150 a month, etc etc. I reached out today to ask about another deposit bonus. My process is I deposit $Y, and if I get to Yx4 (I cash out all excess after winning then come back in if I lose the remainder). Today I was told I didn't have enough "activity" on their book to justify it. Keep in mind, I'm on pace to get 1mm tier credits, which is 6.5x their highest level. So maybe it's activity... or maybe it's that I'm up $7000 net of deposits and withdrawals, but they didn't say that. If anyone knows the secret sauce for these let me know. Right now I'm VIP at DK, FD and (maybe) Ceasar's. Being able to balance the incentives they throw at you, plus the sports betting can really add up. HRB heard about the insane play I negotiated via FD in my first month on a futures play. Managing the VIP contacts and negotiating perks is time very well spent. I heard Barstool is offering 25% deposit bonuses up to $25k, but haven't been approached / used that book in weeks. Does Wynn have any type of VIP program? I know they have these reward tiers, but have yet to have anyone reach out. The reward tiers are fairly useless, though we live close to Encore Boston, so can get soft benefits through them. Still angry they limited me so much on Sixth Man Award bets at +420 and +300.

Speaking of which... we find out at 7pm if Brogdon takes it or not. So far 30% of the vote is known (via the Award tracker google spreadsheet) and he had 60% of the first place votes.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Quick aside here -- I will never figure out these VIP programs. Ceasar's has been in MA for a month, someone reached out to me to join their program - I did, sure why not? I initially got two different deposit bonuses from them, and after a month I've acquired 75k reward tier points. 150k in a year is apparently their top program and you get free hotel stays, $150 a month, etc etc. I reached out today to ask about another deposit bonus. My process is I deposit $Y, and if I get to Yx4 (I cash out all excess after winning then come back in if I lose the remainder). Today I was told I didn't have enough "activity" on their book to justify it. Keep in mind, I'm on pace to get 1mm tier credits, which is 6.5x their highest level. So maybe it's activity... or maybe it's that I'm up $7000 net of deposits and withdrawals, but they didn't say that. If anyone knows the secret sauce for these let me know. Right now I'm VIP at DK, FD and (maybe) Ceasar's. Being able to balance the incentives they throw at you, plus the sports betting can really add up. HRB heard about the insane play I negotiated via FD in my first month on a futures play. Managing the VIP contacts and negotiating perks is time very well spent. I heard Barstool is offering 25% deposit bonuses up to $25k, but haven't been approached / used that book in weeks. Does Wynn have any type of VIP program? I know they have these reward tiers, but have yet to have anyone reach out. The reward tiers are fairly useless, though we live close to Encore Boston, so can get soft benefits through them. Still angry they limited me so much on Sixth Man Award bets at +420 and +300.

Speaking of which... we find out at 7pm if Brogdon takes it or not. So far 30% of the vote is known (via the Award tracker google spreadsheet) and he had 60% of the first place votes.
You’re winning. Presumably much of this on sharp action w CLV. That gets you limited everywhere but Circa nowadays. It’s like the old poker adage…..if you can’t recognize the fish at the table it’s likely you. In sports betting 2023, if you’re not getting limited and needing creative ways to get down, it’s likely you are the fish.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Loving all this injury stuff as markets overreact.

Played some Clippers +7 and Over 224 for .5u and 1u respectively, in the context of this one game. Literally took exit off highway when news hit. I expect total over to get hit as Kawhi out of the lineup actually increases pace and hurts LAC defense while giving us more Russ flying up and down the court creating havoc (for both teams lol). Don’t really understand that move and think that comes back to where it was.

So for sides I like Clippers, Sixers and Warriors. The first two I played a little, the Warriors I haven’t yet but likely will….don’t fight the Ewing Theory (or whatever phenomenon you’d like to call it).

Props sucked yesterday but running it back again with Harden Under 19.5 points for all the same reasons as the first two games.
 
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Marceline

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Incredible on the Brogdon thing! I was on that with you guys, hopefully many of us getting a nice payout today.

@Red Averages - I’m VIP at Wynn. I have a rep I can text and I’ve been offered free golf passes at Blue Hills and they said they can hook me up with deals on Celtics tickets, rooms at Encore etc. I haven’t made use of any of it yet and not sure how long it will last since my action is reduced after clearing bonuses.
 

Red Averages

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Might need to hedge Harden’s under if Embiid is in fact out. Right now he’s +20.5

Edit — Looks like Embiid’s back in.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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Loving all this injury stuff as markets overreact.

Played some Clippers +7 and Over 224 for .5u and 1u respectively, in the context of this one game. Literally took exit off highway when news hit. I expect total over to get hit as Kawhi out of the lineup actually increases pace and hurts LAC defense while giving us more Russ flying up and down the court creating havoc (for both teams lol). Don’t really understand that move and think that comes back to where it was.

So for sides I like Clippers, Sixers and Warriors. The first two I played a little, the Warriors I haven’t yet but likely will….don’t fight the Ewing Theory (or whatever phenomenon you’d like to call it).

Props sucked yesterday but running it back again with Harden Under 19.5 points for all the same reasons as the first two games.
Worth the slight detour!
 

Red Averages

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A few things I'm working towards:
- Under Cavs team total
- Under Memphis team total
- Under Brooklyn team total (Sat @ 1 with a sweep on the line)
- Under Heat team total. Expect this game to be more of a battle again with the Bucks actually playing D.
- Under Sac/GSW Sunday (12:30pm game). These totals remain absurd at 239. The teams put up almost 100 3s in Game 3 and barely got over 210 points. Are they going to average 5 pts a minute as this series moves on, with a 12:30pm start, and (likely) draymond/payton back?
- Lakers -4.5

I don't have much on for tonight yet, outside of the Cavs/Knicks under and Cavs team total under.
 

SteveF

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Jul 14, 2005
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Never underestimate Moses Moody!
That was a weird game. The only bet I've placed this week was that 1H bet on Milwaukee in game 2. I have absolutely no read on anything going on in these playoffs right now and will be here hoping for some charitable, clear-eyed sharps tossing out some nuggets of wisdom.
 

BigSoxFan

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That was a weird game. The only bet I've placed this week was that 1H bet on Milwaukee in game 2. I have absolutely no read on anything going on in these playoffs right now and will be here hoping for some charitable, clear-eyed sharps tossing out some nuggets of wisdom.
I went in big on Dubs ML last night. Always love when teams with pedigree go down 2-0 and come home.
 

Red Averages

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First half Minny is creative. As of now 64% of bets are on Denver…77% of the $ is on Minny +2. First half is more pure, that’s great.

I’m surprised you didn’t have Knicks/Cavs (or Cavs TT under) listed over Celtics -5
 

HomeRunBaker

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First half Minny is creative. As of now 64% of bets are on Denver…77% of the $ is on Minny +2. First half is more pure, that’s great.

I’m surprised you didn’t have Knicks/Cavs (or Cavs TT under) listed over Celtics -5
I like the Under there but I’m concerned with the Knicks being able to dictate tempo at home.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hearing word that Embiid is really banged up and the Sixers may sit him tomorrow. If it goes public before I can post it I will be hammering the Over as his absence greatly increases Pace. Now the same occurred when Kawhi is out…..and the line moves the opposite way as it’s supposed to move before coming back some. So I may not make my entire play on the Over as soon as I get word….bc I may get better by waiting as was the case last night. Or I may not. The market is so F’d up with injury news it’s incredible that this is the case in 2023.

I will play Brooklyn if I get word before it moves for the sole purpose of a 100% middle after the adjustment bc that line absolutely will move to the Nets.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m overly leverages on Over 208 in this first one. So much so that I bought back a little at 210.5 which as mentioned yesterday was the late move I expected.
 

HomeRunBaker

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134, 136, 111, 119, 129, 123, 112, 129, 133.

Total points the Sixers have scored in their last 9 games without Embiid. I know playoffs, I know early start, unfathomable to see them suddenly drain 22 seconds off the shot clock every possession.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Pace doesn’t matter when it’s a brick-a-thon
Then combine the two…..

I’ve had debates elsewhere by otherwise smart cappers on the validity of my early stat time adjustments. I’ll just say….fuck them! It’s the gift that keeps on giving until numbers are adjusted aggressively.
 

BigSoxFan

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Then combine the two…..

I’ve had debates elsewhere by otherwise smart cappers on the validity of my early stat time adjustments. I’ll just say….fuck them! It’s the gift that keeps on giving until numbers are adjusted aggressively.
Yup, early start time clearly trumps all. Funny thing is I went conservative with an alternate line and even that is looking dubious.

Slower pace than expected and 7-30 from 3 says it all.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yup, early start time clearly trumps all. Funny thing is I went conservative with an alternate line and even that is looking dubious.

Slower pace than expected and 7-30 from 3 says it all.
The good thing, I guess, is that I like the 3 remaining early start Unders this weekend regardless of start time. Consider them plays for me with the two tomorrow being unloaded on. Let everyone have their day legs this weekend!
 

Red Averages

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Today:

- Under Knicks/Cavs 206.5
- Under Sac/GSW 239
- Under Bos/atl 232
- Celtics -5.5

Really like the Celtics + under play as I think it gives leverage to Atlanta team total coming in low as the Celtics D effort improves meaningfully from game 3 to 4, potentially as they try to hunt matchups on offense slowing the pace.
 
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BigSoxFan

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Tried a new approach last night that worked. ML bets at -250 or so aren’t very attractive but when you combine with achievable props, it gets the odds to about even. So, I did Lakers ML +

LeBron 25+ points
LeBron 8+ rebounds
LeBron 5+ assists
LeBron 1 block
LeBron 1 steal

Went 5 for 5 so nice night. Obviously, you run the risk of injury or blowout, which scared me last night in first half.

Tonight, I might do same approach with Celtics + individual player steals figuring they’ll be more defensively active.

Strategy definitely in beta testing.
 

Red Averages

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Tried a new approach last night that worked. ML bets at -250 or so aren’t very attractive but when you combine with achievable props, it gets the odds to about even. So, I did Lakers ML +

LeBron 25+ points
LeBron 8+ rebounds
LeBron 5+ assists
LeBron 1 block
LeBron 1 steal

Went 5 for 5 so nice night. Obviously, you run the risk of injury or blowout, which scared me last night in first half.

Tonight, I might do same approach with Celtics + individual player steals figuring they’ll be more defensively active.

Strategy definitely in beta testing.
A little pushback: So Celtics moneyline is 71% odds, and you’re trying to create a 50% odds chance by adding a ton of stuff to it. Why not just bet a little more on the mL vs the 6 leg parlay (which also only wins if the Ml hits)?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Today:

- Under Knicks/Cavs 206.5
- Under Sac/GSW 239
- Under Bos/atl 232
- Celtics -5.5

Really like the Celtics + under play as I think it gives leverage to Atlanta team total coming in low as the Celtics D effort improves meaningfully from game 3 to 4, potentially as they try to hunt meme matchups on offense slowing the pace.
We got good numbers. 206.5 was up for over a full day….it’s at 203 now. This number would need to begin with a candlestick for me to not see value here.
 

Red Averages

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I’m on the Nuggets / Min under at 225 as well. That line moved up in recent days, but looks like $$ is hammering it now (55% of bets on over/91% $$ on under). Looks like it’s at 223.5 now.
Took some Den-4 + under on a parlay as well in case Minnesota no shows tonight ala the Nets.
 

BigSoxFan

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A little pushback: So Celtics moneyline is 71% odds, and you’re trying to create a 50% odds chance by adding a ton of stuff to it. Why not just bet a little more on the mL vs the 6 leg parlay (which also only wins if the Ml hits)?
My rationale is that the ML is a constant in either scenario and if the Celtics win, I’d expect there to be increased defensive pressure. And these would be individual steals bets so would be:

Celtics ML/Tatum steal
Celtics ML/Brown steal
Celtics ML/White steal
etc.

That way, I’m getting more upside with a ML bet but with some potential for offsets. Like, if you do 4 of them and they’re at basic even odds, you just need 2 in order to break even.

You get everything like last night, then it’s a boon. But I could definitely be overthinking this.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Both teams shooting over 50% in 1Q but the pace is so delicious that we are still on the number. This bodes very well.
 

Red Averages

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Both teams shooting over 50% in 1Q but the pace is so delicious that we are still on the number. This bodes very well.
Yup. And one team taking a lead to hopefully avoid any OT/foul optionality. Let’s just avoid the total blowout that changes the pace away from milking 20 seconds per possession…
 

HomeRunBaker

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That was a pretty fantastic back half of the 3Q. Something like 11 pts in the final 5:30? Aside from complete insanity it’s all about fading an OT here. May even look to buy back some midway through if this remains tight and a big enough middle spread.
 

HomeRunBaker

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We’re pretty much rooting for the Knicks now. Extend the lead to avoid the OT threat and not worried about the Cavs upping pace as they won’t enough to offset the Knicks crawl.
 

TripleOT

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I really like Boston minus 7 and the under on 231

I think they hold the Hawks to double digits and put 120 on the Hawks.