Clippers/Pacers under worked nicely. Simons over not so nice.Chicken Dinner!! Please join along with me for some wonderful aesthetically pleasing Sunday afternoon NBA action tomorrow.
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
Whole thing was just kind of unsettling to me. I almost bet the Lakers when it moved to even & should have lol. Just a dumb day overall because I felt like making tiny bets without feeling strongly about the games.
Bet the under on the 3 earliest games yesterday. Guess I should have gone with the 1st 4. 2 of 3 ok, though.
General rule of thumb in NBA is line movement in the morning is sharp money moving the line once overnight limits are raised and late line movement is information on player participation that is a race against sharp money getting there first. Regardless of which it is once the number moves the public player is at a disadvantage with the fully priced in information.
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Got some good ones tonight.
* Wolves ML +120
Coming off 3 losses in a row in first game without KAT at home as a dog vs Grizz. Checks off like every box for me.
* Under 229.5 Wizards/Nets
This number took off from 223 to where it is now and it doesn’t make sense to me at all. This full strength Nets team doesn’t seem like a consistent Over squad to me and they are being priced like one.
* Kings -4
Reads have been spot on with both teams. Pacers enter middle of long road trip coming off emotional comeback win in LA. Kings lost 3 straight and now in a perfect get well spot.
* Wolves ML +120
Coming off 3 losses in a row in first game without KAT at home as a dog vs Grizz. Checks off like every box for me.
* Under 229.5 Wizards/Nets
This number took off from 223 to where it is now and it doesn’t make sense to me at all. This full strength Nets team doesn’t seem like a consistent Over squad to me and they are being priced like one.
* Kings -4
Reads have been spot on with both teams. Pacers enter middle of long road trip coming off emotional comeback win in LA. Kings lost 3 straight and now in a perfect get well spot.
Reading several people picking the Pacers on the return to Sacramento of Halliburton and others. I actually downgrade the Pacers for this reason and the distractions that it brings. Obv not the NBA but when my junior college team played at my old school, CCRI, I spent the hour during warmups being greeted by family, friends and workers in the building. When I checked into the game it was surreal in that I’m thinking “Oh shit I’m in a game” and ended up playing poorly.
Maybe I’m biased from my experience but don’t see how it helps.
Maybe I’m biased from my experience but don’t see how it helps.
I think the -4 is the right line. I wouldn't bet that game, but if I had to I'd lean towards Kings for the reasons you stated. Regular season games motivation/complacency can be a big deal and the Kings should be pretty motivated to win given the losing streak.
(I got in on your Wizards/Nets under play. No guarantees but that was a nutty total given the Orating/Drating/paces involved. Thanks for pointing that one out.)
(I got in on your Wizards/Nets under play. No guarantees but that was a nutty total given the Orating/Drating/paces involved. Thanks for pointing that one out.)
HRB is single-handedly funding my weekends right now and it’s glorious. Nice hits on the Nets total and the TWolves.
I want to play Miami tonight but I’ve stayed away from good fade spots against this steamroller and going to do same tonight. I did sprinkle a few dollars on the ML as the +230 price was too good to not do so. I hope my cap is wrong bc I want this train to keep on rolling.
Paging @HomeRunBaker , paging Mr. Baker.
Please talk me out of throwing the kitchen sink at the Celtics -3 against the Nets today…….
Please talk me out of throwing the kitchen sink at the Celtics -3 against the Nets today…….
Sorry just saw this. I’m neutral on the side but leaned to Under. Didn’t play it but these Nets totals continue to be higher then they should.
While I’m here…..for all you “Simons Over prop guys when Lillard is out”, Damian has been downgraded to Questionable for tonight’s 9pm game so check on status if I can’t get back here to update.
One thing I am looking at is a 2H Wizards play if they remain down double digits at the half. I would expect the Lakers stars to take their foot off the gas with a big lead in the middle of a road trip.
Edit: Played Wiz live +12.5 as I like this even more with Beal’s 1H injury. Kinda like a halftime Ewing. More reason for LA to exhale.
Edit2: That isn’t working out very well lol
Edit: Played Wiz live +12.5 as I like this even more with Beal’s 1H injury. Kinda like a halftime Ewing. More reason for LA to exhale.
Edit2: That isn’t working out very well lol
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I’ve spoke plenty of how teams tend to begin long road trips with high energy and focus. The Lakers began their 6-game in 10-day trip with wins in Milwaukee and a blowout in DC. I’ve also spoke about how that energy and focus dissipates toward the middle of the trip. Lakers play in Cleveland tonight, Toronto tomorrow then finish up Friday and Sunday in Philly and Detroit.
Look at these games as a group and how you would expect LA to approach each game. Tonight in Cleveland is LeBron’s return home. We discussed similar when everyone loved the Pacers w Halliburton returning but like that night these are often distractions as the Pacers got blown out as Tyrese had one of his worst games of the year. LeBron however, is different and he’s been back to Cleveland before.
My play:
Passing on tonight’s game and hoping for a Laker win while playing the Raptors on the overnight which will likely be -4 or -5. I’d love the spot following a Laker win plus you have all the load management equity if LeBron and/or Davis sit it out. This could shape up to be a great overnight play. Also, tomorrow I like the Winning Margin plays of 17-20 and 21+
I’d also lean Sixers and Pistons at this point to close out the trip. Not that I would ever advocate a Martingale play but these 4 games would certainly set up to be one. I’d prefer hand picking spots myself.
Edit: I’d have no qualms with a small Cavs play at no more than -5 if we know Allen is a go (questionable).
Look at these games as a group and how you would expect LA to approach each game. Tonight in Cleveland is LeBron’s return home. We discussed similar when everyone loved the Pacers w Halliburton returning but like that night these are often distractions as the Pacers got blown out as Tyrese had one of his worst games of the year. LeBron however, is different and he’s been back to Cleveland before.
My play:
Passing on tonight’s game and hoping for a Laker win while playing the Raptors on the overnight which will likely be -4 or -5. I’d love the spot following a Laker win plus you have all the load management equity if LeBron and/or Davis sit it out. This could shape up to be a great overnight play. Also, tomorrow I like the Winning Margin plays of 17-20 and 21+
I’d also lean Sixers and Pistons at this point to close out the trip. Not that I would ever advocate a Martingale play but these 4 games would certainly set up to be one. I’d prefer hand picking spots myself.
Edit: I’d have no qualms with a small Cavs play at no more than -5 if we know Allen is a go (questionable).
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I am guessing you are rethinking this due to the 14 point Laker loss last night, a sick Anthony Davis and a current line of TOR -8.5. Thoughts on this game or any others in tonight's large slate?
Yeah never could get the overnight on my sites but I saw 5.5 and 6 offshore after game. Tricky but my observation is that when teams begin their road trip with wins once they get that first loss it’s a struggle the rest of the way so I’d still expect some losses. Having no Davis in the middle of a road trip is so suboptimal but laying 9 is meh. I’d still take a look at the Winning Margin numbers (17-20 & 21+) as the Lakers could easily pack it in.
I’ll post others shortly. Getting car serviced at dealership and sales guy trying to corner me lol.
I’m going to continue riding these inflated Nets totals. U221.5 is a number they have not reached in 7 of their last 8 with the only game being a Pacers team who view defending in transition like a mere suggestion.
Lakers going with their G-League team tonight so no play at all on this one. Aside from my Nets/Hornets Under the other game I like is…..I hate to say it…..Phoenix at Pk.
Prop Watch. We’ve done well with Simons Overs without Lillard and here’s another one to watch for one more game before diving in. The Wolves “may” have figured out how to utilize Gobert tonight without KAT in the lineup. I say wait another game bc this is the first of three games that Gobert put up number with 16/20 after B2B single singles.
Again, not much conviction of anything tonight but I’ll let you know when I’ve got some good ones. I like Spurs and Nuggets tonight.
May have 1-2 for tomorrow going to wait on injury/lineups first though.
May have 1-2 for tomorrow going to wait on injury/lineups first though.
Got one!
* Sixers Team Total Over 114.5
I also have Sixers -3.5 on the overnight but gun to head I like the TT best. Having a sprinkle on a correlated Sixers and Over (225.5) parlay isn’t something I’d be opposed to either. The Lakers, in the middle of their road trip, will be giving up points to Philly who have had 3 days off and are ready for a dose of home cooking. “Maybe” LeBron and Davis can outscore the Sixers but are less likely to stop them from hitting 115. I can visualize a 126-117 Philly win.
* Sixers Team Total Over 114.5
I also have Sixers -3.5 on the overnight but gun to head I like the TT best. Having a sprinkle on a correlated Sixers and Over (225.5) parlay isn’t something I’d be opposed to either. The Lakers, in the middle of their road trip, will be giving up points to Philly who have had 3 days off and are ready for a dose of home cooking. “Maybe” LeBron and Davis can outscore the Sixers but are less likely to stop them from hitting 115. I can visualize a 126-117 Philly win.
Those numbers got crushed on the open. Seeing Sixers -5, total 227 and TT 116. I still like the TT but not quite to the “Got one!” level. Also like Under 223 Cavs/Kings and Dallas +1.
Got one…..and one that you may like!
* Celtics -2.5
Warriors without Wiggins tonight, the Celtics have been a train and appear to be on a mission to send a message to every contender they face. What better time to get back at the Warriors than tonight?
Others I like are Bulls -5 and Nets +8. Neither are close to “got one” though.
* Celtics -2.5
Warriors without Wiggins tonight, the Celtics have been a train and appear to be on a mission to send a message to every contender they face. What better time to get back at the Warriors than tonight?
Others I like are Bulls -5 and Nets +8. Neither are close to “got one” though.
Nets ML was +370 in a Ewing game. Crazy stuff. If Bulls can hang on to their 27-pt 4Q lead and cover I’ve got essentially a free roll of this C’s game. LFG!!!!
Anyone on these? Gobert’s Pts and P/R/A numbers both flew Over in his last two games since this alert. Minny runs it back at Portland tomorrow night where he’ll go up against Nurkic and Eubanks again.
I played these tonight:
* Over 114.5 1H Raptors/Magic (33% U223 game, may look for 2H middle)
* Under 220 Sixers/Hornets
* If I was more a prop guy, or a more confident one, I’d probably attach a “Got a good one” but since I’m not I’m playing Lonnie Walker Over 12.5 Points.
Love this spot. I don’t expect LBJ and/or AD to be overly aggressive this deep into a road trip after some big games on a late Sunday afternoon against Detroit. Looking for Laker role players usage to be higher than normal and Lonnie is a prime candidate.
Edit: The 1Q in Orlando may have been the slowest paced 1Q of the season lol. No surprise 1-11 3-pt shooting accompanied this lack of rhythm/flow. Never a chance. At least Lonnie came out smoking!
* Over 114.5 1H Raptors/Magic (33% U223 game, may look for 2H middle)
* Under 220 Sixers/Hornets
* If I was more a prop guy, or a more confident one, I’d probably attach a “Got a good one” but since I’m not I’m playing Lonnie Walker Over 12.5 Points.
Love this spot. I don’t expect LBJ and/or AD to be overly aggressive this deep into a road trip after some big games on a late Sunday afternoon against Detroit. Looking for Laker role players usage to be higher than normal and Lonnie is a prime candidate.
Edit: The 1Q in Orlando may have been the slowest paced 1Q of the season lol. No surprise 1-11 3-pt shooting accompanied this lack of rhythm/flow. Never a chance. At least Lonnie came out smoking!
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Hey Guys,
In case anyone wasn’t aware, Captain Laddie has some good NBA Player Prop work going on in Fiskful of Dollars. Check it out.
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/nba-betting.38182/#post-5318318
In case anyone wasn’t aware, Captain Laddie has some good NBA Player Prop work going on in Fiskful of Dollars. Check it out.
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/nba-betting.38182/#post-5318318
Thanks HRB. I've mostly been just trying to document things because I want this to work and doing it in a semi-public place means I have to be held accountable for the numbers.
It's been going very well so far!
This is the first time I’ve used an actual resource for prop plays so I’m excited about where this goes. Do you know if these projections are lineup dependent, matchups, splits, etc? Basically how is the number derived? curious about last night where I know how I arrived at the Lonnie Walker Pts Over and wondering if any of my cap was factored in to the number seeing value it too.
I believe so. They use a z-score based projection method but it's a black box. They definitely take into account the bolded (on nights where, say, Anthony Davis is out, other centers and big men on team have their numbers juiced) but I'm not sure of the methodology. I've had a huge amount of success using BBM for fantasy basketball over the years and this seemed like a logical next step.
Last night they had Walker projected for 14.9 pt, 2.2 rb and 1.6 ast fwiw.
I’ve got one good one for tonight, conflicted lean in two markets of one game and a special bonus.
* Brooklyn -6 over Wizards
Super strong one here. Rested Nets team at full strength with Simmons returning on their effective opener of road trip (Claxton expected to play), bench should be sharp after extended minutes in Saturdays load management win, and the Wiz on a downward spiral without Beal.
* This game is my conflict and I hate hate hate playing both a side and total in same game (my cross to bear I know). Under 224.5 Celtics/Clippers and/or Clippers +4 both look good. Unsure how I get involved, if I get involved or whether I simply play the correlated parlay so I’m not really involved but get rewarded if the game plays out as I expect.
Celtics nearing end of road trip and probably losing a little edge from their massive run while the Clippers have their dynamic duo back in a game they should be up for. While I don’t expect the C’s to be sharp I certainly don’t expect them to push pace which should play into the Clipper half court sets, especially in the 2H (high scoring 1H could lead me to play a 2H Under which I like anyway here).
* Over 44 Patriots/Cardinals
Pats Over often provide value on the road in domes and good weather……I feel tonight is no different. Their totals are dragged down in these spots by so man home games in bad weather and divisional games when we play to those ugly 13-10 scores largely dependent on the running game. The Cardinals defend the run well but are vulnerable in the secondary so I expect Mac’s arm to play a big role in tonight’s game plan. This game should be wide open which isn’t reflected in this number.
* Brooklyn -6 over Wizards
Super strong one here. Rested Nets team at full strength with Simmons returning on their effective opener of road trip (Claxton expected to play), bench should be sharp after extended minutes in Saturdays load management win, and the Wiz on a downward spiral without Beal.
* This game is my conflict and I hate hate hate playing both a side and total in same game (my cross to bear I know). Under 224.5 Celtics/Clippers and/or Clippers +4 both look good. Unsure how I get involved, if I get involved or whether I simply play the correlated parlay so I’m not really involved but get rewarded if the game plays out as I expect.
Celtics nearing end of road trip and probably losing a little edge from their massive run while the Clippers have their dynamic duo back in a game they should be up for. While I don’t expect the C’s to be sharp I certainly don’t expect them to push pace which should play into the Clipper half court sets, especially in the 2H (high scoring 1H could lead me to play a 2H Under which I like anyway here).
* Over 44 Patriots/Cardinals
Pats Over often provide value on the road in domes and good weather……I feel tonight is no different. Their totals are dragged down in these spots by so man home games in bad weather and divisional games when we play to those ugly 13-10 scores largely dependent on the running game. The Cardinals defend the run well but are vulnerable in the secondary so I expect Mac’s arm to play a big role in tonight’s game plan. This game should be wide open which isn’t reflected in this number.
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Great job on the basketball picks! I tailed you on these - so thank you! ETA: And Gobert went well over his 30.5 P/R/A number!
I know the Celts are wrapping up their west coast trip, but I kinda like them at the current number. Tonight's New Orleans and Philly numbers look attractive too.
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Ty glad you cashed too! Drove from FL to NC today and not getting involved tonight at all. Leg 2 tomorrow NC to RI but I have a couple I’ll be looking at. I’ll post if I have a good one
Finally settled up north for the next two weeks. Was looking at Orlando and OKC for tonight but so much going on during my drive today I choose not to get involved. I’ll dig up something tomorrow I’m sure.
Got two real good ones tonight.
* Under 219.5 Heat/Rockets
Also lean Houston +4 as they catch yet another team in a “schedule loss” spot so like the Celtics/Clips the other night this is a good correlated parlay add. Heat rode Herro’s 9 3-pt last night and tough bounce back for him on high volume. Aside from Herro the Heat struggle to generate points early in the shot clock. Butler should return which will slow pace as well. Rockets are near bottom of league in 1Q pts so not expecting a fast offensive start by them either. As I’m writing this number is down to 218.5 which I still like a lot. I wouldn’t play it below 216 but no need to if you grab it
* Grizzlies -2
The Bucks coming off big win over Warriors that they were clearly up for but in middle of brutal travel stretch (35 days w/o B2B home games), will be without Holiday tonight, and rely on Middleton who was on 28 per game minute restriction at least through last game. I’m going to begin tinkering with Winning Margin props if prices are right and Mem 17-20 and 21+ should be juicy here when they post.
I was intrigued by OKC paying back Utah from two nights ago but I fear that this is one of those “bad matchups” that you can’t point a finger on but it just is. I also don’t like playing on teams after a big run of wins after it ends with a loss. They are due for some regression and I don’t want to be a part of it…….and for that reason, I’m out!
* Under 219.5 Heat/Rockets
Also lean Houston +4 as they catch yet another team in a “schedule loss” spot so like the Celtics/Clips the other night this is a good correlated parlay add. Heat rode Herro’s 9 3-pt last night and tough bounce back for him on high volume. Aside from Herro the Heat struggle to generate points early in the shot clock. Butler should return which will slow pace as well. Rockets are near bottom of league in 1Q pts so not expecting a fast offensive start by them either. As I’m writing this number is down to 218.5 which I still like a lot. I wouldn’t play it below 216 but no need to if you grab it
* Grizzlies -2
The Bucks coming off big win over Warriors that they were clearly up for but in middle of brutal travel stretch (35 days w/o B2B home games), will be without Holiday tonight, and rely on Middleton who was on 28 per game minute restriction at least through last game. I’m going to begin tinkering with Winning Margin props if prices are right and Mem 17-20 and 21+ should be juicy here when they post.
I was intrigued by OKC paying back Utah from two nights ago but I fear that this is one of those “bad matchups” that you can’t point a finger on but it just is. I also don’t like playing on teams after a big run of wins after it ends with a loss. They are due for some regression and I don’t want to be a part of it…….and for that reason, I’m out!
I went Memphis ML/Rockets under 113.5. Small money but I like your logic so I'm in.
Like it!!!
I’ll add that Steven Adams returns after missing one game with an ankle. He’s one of the most underrated players in this league despite what others like to say. You’d have to fight me on the impact this player has on a game.
Hope someone snagged that Memphis by 21+ at +1600 or so. Tyler Herro single-handedly ruined our night. 10 more threes for him with everyone else combining for 14-60.
Can he do it again Sat afternoon in San Antonio? Without him this team has little offense and tired legs…..and it’s a day game. Heavy artillery….engage!!!
EDIT: Literally at a loss for words on those final 4 minutes. Hoping someone at least got a push out of it. Absolutely insane.
Can he do it again Sat afternoon in San Antonio? Without him this team has little offense and tired legs…..and it’s a day game. Heavy artillery….engage!!!
EDIT: Literally at a loss for words on those final 4 minutes. Hoping someone at least got a push out of it. Absolutely insane.
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Anyone looking for a last second prop. Moses Brown over rebounds with two short handed teams. No ayton or zubac
Brown starting at C. AVG 10.6 REB/24 MINS this szn. In 5 starts for CLE last season, 9+ REB in 5/5, avg 11.8 RPG.
Brown starting at C. AVG 10.6 REB/24 MINS this szn. In 5 starts for CLE last season, 9+ REB in 5/5, avg 11.8 RPG.