Silver Dollar - The Official 2022-23 NBA Betting Thread!

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make hers mark
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The problem with the way RAS releases their props is that Prop Builder moves the number and the price immediately.

Yep...that's one of two methods I like, other doesn't always get changed immediately but I've had solid success with. RAS Prop Builder is great if you're in immediately. My hope is always that some book is slow. I always check before I post, last thing I want to offer you (or anyone else) is a stale line.
 

BigSoxFan

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Been sick as a dog all day but one late night one left that I like is Sacramento -4, who continues to be undervalued, against the LeBron-less Lakers. I like Over 231 and Sac TT Over 117.5 too. This should be a no-defense track meet with the Kings having the better shooters/scorers.

My guess:

Kings 128
Lakers 113
Boom. I decided to ride with the HRB NyQuil take. Well done.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Played one overnight with Pacers +1 over the Raptors. The dreaded 5th game in 7 nights road trip for Toronto playing against one of the leagues most undervalued teams in Indiana. There is also a greater than zero change that Nurse sits multiple starters too.
 

RG33

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Played one overnight with Pacers +1 over the Raptors. The dreaded 5th game in 7 nights road trip for Toronto playing against one of the leagues most undervalued teams in Indiana. There is also a greater than zero change that Nurse sits multiple starters too.
I am on Team HRB.
Boom!
 

SteveF

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Jul 14, 2005
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No Mitchell. That explains that Cavs/Wolves line. I thought I was going nuts for a sec.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got one to share for tomorrow. Checks a lot of boxes. Utah has traveled after all 8 games since Halloween and come off another trip right into a home game. They are coming down to earth…..and about to crash down to earth. The Knicks are 4-2 when coming off a loss and begin their long road trip in Utah. I’ve shared before how I like playing on teams early on these long trips especially in the first game as they tend to be more focused to get trip off on right foot.

I’ve seen the Knicks at +4 and +4.5 on the overnight and expect them to win the first game of their trip here.
 

RG33

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Got one to share for tomorrow. Checks a lot of boxes. Utah has traveled after all 8 games since Halloween and come off another trip right into a home game. They are coming down to earth…..and about to crash down to earth. The Knicks are 4-2 when coming off a loss and begin their long road trip in Utah. I’ve shared before how I like playing on teams early on these long trips especially in the first game as they tend to be more focused to get trip off on right foot.

I’ve seen the Knicks at +4 and +4.5 on the overnight and expect them to win the first game of their trip here.
I like this thinking a lot.

I’m in at +4 and +155.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Non-NBA dumb beat story.

Second time this NFL season I lost an in-game Under on a final play defensive TD off the Stanford band lateral play. This time it occurred in the same game I had Heinicke Over 211.5 Passing Yards……he finished at 211.

E7C77E15-4817-4716-8861-01C0D028AD95.jpeg5658DDD0-CDB9-4CB8-81DD-91501F54466B.jpeg5658DDD0-CDB9-4CB8-81DD-91501F54466B.jpeg
 

HomeRunBaker

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I like this thinking a lot.

I’m in at +4 and +155.
I hate when I like both a side AND a total in the same game but Under 229.5 is a good look here after the Knicks sleepwalking efforts on the defensive end in a noon Sunday start. Defending and defending in transition will be priorities tonight for the Knicks.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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@HomeRunBaker based on your feelings about the Knicks tonight how do you feel about this bonus? I usually don’t like them since parlays are long shots anyway and typically the books put a long shot in there. However, in this one at Ceasars it appears the Knicks are the long shot.

Mavs, Knicks, Nets, and Trail Blazers all to win +950
 

RG33

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I hate when I like both a side AND a total in the same game but Under 229.5 is a good look here after the Knicks sleepwalking efforts on the defensive end in a noon Sunday start. Defending and defending in transition will be priorities tonight for the Knicks.
Yeah, I hate it too, and very rarely do it.

BUT, in HRB We Trust.
 

HomeRunBaker

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@HomeRunBaker based on your feelings about the Knicks tonight how do you feel about this bonus? I usually don’t like them since parlays are long shots anyway and typically the books put a long shot in there. However, in this one at Ceasars it appears the Knicks are the long shot.

Mavs, Knicks, Nets, and Trail Blazers all to win +950
For a +950 play that you created I wouldn’t be comfortable denouncing it over a marginal spot. Ride with it!!
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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For a +950 play that you created I wouldn’t be comfortable denouncing it over a marginal spot. Ride with it!!
Thanks. Let me be clear though, it’s a bonus publicly offered by Caesars, not one I conjured up.

Any one else on the app can probably find it too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thanks. Let me be clear though, it’s a bonus publicly offered by Caesars, not one I conjured up.

Any one else on the app can probably find it too.
Gotcha. I like the Kings but didn’t want to talk you off a 4-teamer over 1 leg.
 

RG33

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I hate when I like both a side AND a total in the same game but Under 229.5 is a good look here after the Knicks sleepwalking efforts on the defensive end in a noon Sunday start. Defending and defending in transition will be priorities tonight for the Knicks.
4701908D-1575-49EA-81DB-EAD7C4831782.png

I was 0-3 on NHL bets tonight — worst night this year for NHL — but the Knicks bet(s) broke me even thanks to the ML.
 

BigSoxFan

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I joined in on the Kings fun. This is not a bad team. They can fill it up and playing a team with like 1 scorer is a good recipe for betting.
 

JM3

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I also bet Knicks ML yesterday +150 & I pretty much never bet MLs. Or on the Knicks...

I guess I'll have to start paying attention to this thread :)
 

RG33

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NHL betting and DFS are two things I cannot seem to figure out. Any tips or rules of thumb you use? Another thread? This thread has been great - not only for profits, but extra insight as well.
I crushed NHL betting last year — purely off of using Dom L. from The Athletic who published his daily probabilities. However, because he took so much shit on Twitter, he is not doing it this year — I was crushed. He did post his preseason view of teams that were the most undervalued — top of the list were Bruins and Vegas. I’ve ridden them hard and done well obviously.

He was big on watching the starting goalies, adjusting for travel, and paying attention to injuries shifting probabilities. My buddy and I still use www.dailyfaceoff.com which he would reference quite a bit for the “Starting Goalies” section — they also have a “Betting” section, but it is not nearly as thorough as how Dom used to do it.

At one point last year in October I think he went 18-1 — and the guy I use accused me of “hacking” the website he uses. LOL.
 

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How you beat books is arguably its own thread...

There's quite a few methods, and what ones I suggest depends on the book you use. If it's a soft book (think the ones that advertise a ton on TV), I have a very different mindset to sharp books, like your Circa and Pinnacle.

Some of this is model creation, some of that is coding to work the numbers with DFS, etc. It's a lot to put in, far more than you'd think. My DFS model took about 8 hours to code, takes about 30-60 minutes daily to input for the sport I want. Which is entirely different than sides, totals, props, over/under, etc.

Don't exactly want this all to be public info so I'll put some of it in said own thread in Fiskful later today or later this week.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got one side and one total for today.

* Pacers +2.5
* Under 220.5 Mavs/Rockets

The Pacers, much like the Kings, continue to be undervalued despite off-season/trade deadline adds fitting like a glove. I’ll take them getting points against a bad Hornets team still working Ball into the lineup. Number should be reversed imo.

Rockets give up a ton of points and have been willing track meet partners to some uptempo teams recently which skews their number. Dallas isn’t going to partake in this atmosphere as they play at snails pace with Doncic and on second leg of a B2B this will show even greater. The Rockets also won’t be getting the cleaner looks or lanes to the basket in this style of game. Thinking this could be something like a 108-95 ugly final so I feel this number is also way off.

Was also considering Over Bos/Atl, Under Min/Orlando and Under NY/Den but they don’t reach the level of the two above.
 

JM3

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I was all like wtf are the Nuggets only -3.5 v. Knicks...then I saw that Jokic is out, Bones & Ish are doubtful, & Gordon is questionable. & I'm like wtf are the Nuggets favored? Seems like one of those stay-away Ewing games, though.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got one side and one total for today.

* Pacers +2.5
* Under 220.5 Mavs/Rockets
Doncic OUT for load management. I began suspecting this info was swirling as game opened at 10.5, then to 9 and 8 before the news moved it to 5.

So here’s what I did in case someone already played Under 220.5 as this was my cap that was influenced by a Doncic-led pace. The number moved to 216.5 which “could” be an overreaction in the wrong direction. I would definitely NOT play Under now but his absence adds a ton of uncertainty. This could stay low or the pace could fly now that others have more opportunities. Me? I bought back about 75% of my play with Over 216.5 to protect against variance as well as create a juicy middle. If you hadn’t done anything yet it’s a pure pass imo and Go Pacers!

Edit: I would not play Dallas in a “Ewing Theory” spot while being a favorite. Kinda weird spot as this usually applies to a dog. Even though Houston is really bad and could be epically bad before it’s all done.
 
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Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
383
HRB hits again!

I bought in for the C’s game at 223.5 in the first Q when no one could score. Looks like I’ll be sweating that one out.
 

Oil Can Dan

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0-3 to 4-3
* Pacers +2.5

The Pacers, much like the Kings, continue to be undervalued despite off-season/trade deadline adds fitting like a glove. I’ll take them getting points against a bad Hornets team still working Ball into the lineup. Number should be reversed imo.
BOOM!
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Lol at the 42 point third quarter. Oh well, if I start bitching about more than doubling my money I’ve lost the plot. We are ON FIRE right now.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got one for Thursday night that I played on the overnight before it gets to 3/3.5 as I expect.

* Portland -1.5

While I don’t have a hard rule about playing against teams coming off a blowout loss it is something I rarely do as they tend to rebound focused the following game. There are exceptions however and tonight I feel is one of them.

Lost in the midst of the Kyrie drama is how brutal the Nets travel schedule has been these last two weeks with not much end in sight. Tonight is the 9th consecutive game where the Nets traveled following the game with one nights sleep in their own bed mixed in. This stretch doesn’t end until it reaches 14 games with one additional night in their own beds until it is followed by a well deserved 7 game home stand. Couple this travel fatigue with the daily dysfunction of the team I wonder how much fight they will have in them after traveling to Oregon.

Portland has won 4 of 5 while getting Lillard and Simons back in the lineup which adds the offensive punch to one of the more surprisingly effective defensive teams in the league.

I think Brooklyn could show early but have trouble sustaining their effort over 4Q but another bad effort is certainly live here too. I may even look to add at the half if the Nets have a decent lead and I get a good number. The final I’m thinking of is 112-102 so for you same game parlay players out there I lean to the Under with the tired Nets more than happy to crawl at the Blazers pace tonight. That’s a pretty good correlation to what a Blazers win will look like.
 

RG33

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Buzzkill. It was setup nicely. Blazers went cold as ice.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Buzzkill. It was setup nicely. Blazers went cold as ice.
Had control most of the way. Nets 14-0 run to end the 3Q changed the game. Part of me wants to kick myself bc I know how NBA teams respond to embarassing blowouts but the other recognizes that I understood this as part of my cap. At least I got some back with the Under……thought that was heading to OT for sure.