Silver Dollar - The Official 2022-23 NBA Betting Thread!

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Frickin Dyson Daniels only has to make 1 of 2 FT’s with 1.4 sec in regulation and the Pels cover the 3. Instead, he costs his team the game. Ouch.

I did play their 2H number so that made up for the bad loss. Cue Ice Cube!
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Won $500 on $10 parlay due to Tatum’s final bucket (needed him to get 25+ as part of parlay). I was sweating the last possession of regulation. Given that I am usually the king of losing on the last leg of parlays, this was a nice development.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Lots of marginal plays tonight and questioning how much I want to get involved. For now the only play I’ve made is Over 227 Pacers/Heat……with a 67/33 split between full game and Over 116 1H. It’s possible I turn the 1H profit into a 2H middle is window is large enough (5-6 pts).
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Lots of marginal plays tonight and questioning how much I want to get involved. For now the only play I’ve made is Over 227 Pacers/Heat……with a 67/33 split between full game and Over 116 1H. It’s possible I turn the 1H profit into a 2H middle is window is large enough (5-6 pts).
Not sure why oddsmakers haven't posted anything for Sixers yet. Waiting to see how Maxey/Harris are priced. Figure Maxey's o/u figure is going to skyrocket now so my nice run may be over there. But if it's under 25, I may partake again. Durant got jacked up to a crazy 34.5, which feels like a Kyrie overcorrection to me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So tempted to play the Warriors tonight but only other thing I’m adding is Celtics -7 with the Bulls logging a ton of miles lately. If the Bulls get out to a quick start I’ll add more C’s at smaller number (-2 is target here).
 

RG33

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Nov 28, 2005
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Lots of marginal plays tonight and questioning how much I want to get involved. For now the only play I’ve made is Over 227 Pacers/Heat……with a 67/33 split between full game and Over 116 1H. It’s possible I turn the 1H profit into a 2H middle is window is large enough (5-6 pts).
I see it at 225 now — loading up time ?
 

RG33

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I am taking:

IND/MIA OVER 225 (HRB Special)
Pistons +4 (Cavs on road after big intense matchup with C’s sans both Garland and Donovan)
Wiz -2.5 (Trainwreck Nets with new coach, winless on road, Wiz not been playing well and smell blood)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Garland Out - Cavs winning big
Harden Out - Sixers winning
Kyrie Out - Nets winning big
Warriors Everyone Out - Winning early

Ewing Theory is one of the best angles in the history of NBA betting.
 

RG33

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Nov 28, 2005
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I am taking:

IND/MIA OVER 225 (HRB Special)
Pistons +4 (Cavs on road after big intense matchup with C’s sans both Garland and Donovan)
Wiz -2.5 (Trainwreck Nets with new coach, winless on road, Wiz not been playing well and smell blood)
Bows head in shame.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Bows head in shame.
It’s better to lose by than by a half a point. Saves years off your lifespan.

Speaking of which…….

I’m in my poker game during Celtics TO with 3 min to go in 1Q and tv in front of us with the game on. In between hands I’m frantically logging onto various sites to play Celtics -3.5 when guy next to me who I’m somewhat friendly with, and knows what I do, asks me what I’m playing. After I tell him he logs onto one of his site and says….I kid you not….”best I could get from my guy had was 4.5, what are the chances it lands on 4?” He had already left when Malcolm Brogdon, career 89% FT shooter who was 19-19 on the year, missed one of two as the game lands on 4. Ouch lol
 

HomeRunBaker

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Football Sunday……don’t forget your NBA! 4 games and my opinion on each as I’m up early to start my day with Arsenal/Chelsea as two evenly priced futbol clubs have shown vastly different bodies of work recently…..but I digress (yes I play EPL too)!

* Cavs -3.

Like my “Follow team early on long trip and fade them on the back end of it” angle here. Cavs coming off big win in G1 @Detroit and play a still overvalued Laker team in an early west coast start.

* Raptors -1.5

Chicago has hopped on a plane following each of their last 6 games and now play a B2B home and home vs a real good Toronto team in a Ewing Theory spot without Siakam for first game of his groin injury.

* Wizards +10.5

The game I like the least of the four. Several factors have me lean Wiz though. NBA teams coming off 40-pt losses tend to rebound with energy and a sense of urgency, teams coming off 30-pt wins can sometimes do the opposite, and I don’t grade out the Grizz as high as the market. My pause is that while I’ve done well fading Memphis on the road they have taken care of business at home against the dregs.

* Under 223 Jazz/Clippers

My strongest out of the three I’ll be playing today (won’t be on Wiz). Disclaimer: I got a bunch at the 224.5 overnight but anything above 220 is good as I expect this to be bet down. As I discussed a couple games ago when Utah played Dallas, their totals are sometimes way off and tonight is one of these nights. Their numbers are skewed by playing fast-paced opponents who they are more than willing to run with and a couple OT games for those looking at raw numbers. The Mavs game landed 20 pts below the total and tonight may be similar as the Clips have reached 223 in only one of their nine games while being last in Offensice Efficiency. My adjustments put this at 216.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Every year the markets begin moving earlier and earlier in the morning. Jazz/Clips down to 221 already and Cavs up to 4.

Wait until tomorrow morning when the college board lights up for opening night! Take a closed league of 30 like the NBA with multi-year contracts and relatively minimal rotation turnover from year to year……now think of managing information and action for 358 teams with transfer protocols, high coaching/system turnover, etc along with each teams progression throughout the year?

I’ve learned that one of the most important skills for a sports bettor isn’t only “what you know” but in recognizing “what you don’t know.” For me, it’s the difference in my handicapping prior to clicking overnight lines and early morning numbers before the market moves (NBA)……and sitting in front of a computer screen waiting for the screen to light up and markets to move while catching stale numbers before my Pay Per Head sites can move them. Each are more stressful in their own ways….

GOOOOOAAAAALLLLLLL!!!!!!

….sorry, Arsenal hit the back of the net. F-Yeah! Where was I? Oh yeah, each are more stressful as the NBA requires me to do ALL the work while in college I don’t have to worry at all about the handicapping but in actually placing the wagers before numbers move. Each year this window gets smaller and smaller…..some sites can be minutes while others move within seconds.

Ok I’m done rambling.
 

zak1013

lurker
Jul 14, 2005
7
HRB, I was surprised that you didn’t call out the Cavs/LAL under given it’s an early west coast start. Any particular reason you don’t see this as a good spot today?
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
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Nov 2, 2007
15,879
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Every year the markets begin moving earlier and earlier in the morning. Jazz/Clips down to 221 already and Cavs up to 4.

Wait until tomorrow morning when the college board lights up for opening night! Take a closed league of 30 like the NBA with multi-year contracts and relatively minimal rotation turnover from year to year……now think of managing information and action for 358 teams with transfer protocols, high coaching/system turnover, etc along with each teams progression throughout the year?

I’ve learned that one of the most important skills for a sports bettor isn’t only “what you know” but in recognizing “what you don’t know.” For me, it’s the difference in my handicapping prior to clicking overnight lines and early morning numbers before the market moves (NBA)……and sitting in front of a computer screen waiting for the screen to light up and markets to move while catching stale numbers before my Pay Per Head sites can move them. Each are more stressful in their own ways….

GOOOOOAAAAALLLLLLL!!!!!!

….sorry, Arsenal hit the back of the net. F-Yeah! Where was I? Oh yeah, each are more stressful as the NBA requires me to do ALL the work while in college I don’t have to worry at all about the handicapping but in actually placing the wagers before numbers move. Each year this window gets smaller and smaller…..some sites can be minutes while others move within seconds.

Ok I’m done rambling.
Get on NUFC, the Black n White Army are on a mission this season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Get on NUFC, the Black n White Army are on a mission this season.
I got Arsenal at +165 which I thought was laughable. My EPL process is similar to my UFC in that I do my own “limited” handicap to shade to a side however strongly. I have two EPL and a couple MMA guys that I follow…..if they are on the same side/total then I’ll play. My other two EPL picks that I didn’t play were Newcastle ML and Under in Aston Villa/MU. I do agree that NUFC gets no love whatsoever.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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Santa Monica
I got Arsenal at +165 which I thought was laughable. My EPL process is similar to my UFC in that I do my own “limited” handicap to shade to a side however strongly. I have two EPL and a couple MMA guys that I follow…..if they are on the same side/total then I’ll play. My other two EPL picks that I didn’t play were Newcastle ML and Under in Aston Villa/MU. I do agree that NUFC gets no love whatsoever.
NUFC shares similar qualities to the Sox pre-Henry/Warner. They suffered with terrible, cheap ownership for decades. Now they have the deep-pocket Middle East money being splashed in transfer windows with a shrewd manager (Eddie Howe) handling on-field play. Rabid fan base from a region (North England/South Scotland). They are worth keeping a casual eye on after the World Cup.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Jun 14, 2013
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Football Sunday……don’t forget your NBA! 4 games and my opinion on each as I’m up early to start my day with Arsenal/Chelsea as two evenly priced futbol clubs have shown vastly different bodies of work recently…..but I digress (yes I play EPL too)!

* Cavs -3.

Like my “Follow team early on long trip and fade them on the back end of it” angle here. Cavs coming off big win in G1 @Detroit and play a still overvalued Laker team in an early west coast start.

* Raptors -1.5

Chicago has hopped on a plane following each of their last 6 games and now play a B2B home and home vs a real good Toronto team in a Ewing Theory spot without Siakam for first game of his groin injury.

* Wizards +10.5

The game I like the least of the four. Several factors have me lean Wiz though. NBA teams coming off 40-pt losses tend to rebound with energy and a sense of urgency, teams coming off 30-pt wins can sometimes do the opposite, and I don’t grade out the Grizz as high as the market. My pause is that while I’ve done well fading Memphis on the road they have taken care of business at home against the dregs.

* Under 223 Jazz/Clippers

My strongest out of the three I’ll be playing today (won’t be on Wiz). Disclaimer: I got a bunch at the 224.5 overnight but anything above 220 is good as I expect this to be bet down. As I discussed a couple games ago when Utah played Dallas, their totals are sometimes way off and tonight is one of these nights. Their numbers are skewed by playing fast-paced opponents who they are more than willing to run with and a couple OT games for those looking at raw numbers. The Mavs game landed 20 pts below the total and tonight may be similar as the Clips have reached 223 in only one of their nine games while being last in Offensice Efficiency. My adjustments put this at 216.
Parlayed CLE, TOR, and Jazz/Clips under for a little more than beer money. Let’s go!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Parlayed CLE, TOR, and Jazz/Clips under for a little more than beer money. Let’s go!
GL I’m riding with you! What number did you get on the total? I see it down to 220.5 now.

Real reason I popped back in has to do with tomorrow CBB and the season opener at 2pm which is actually 11am where Pacific and Stanford will play. You know my early start time angle……Total has gone from 140 to 138 this morning on low volume/limits. It will be interesting to see what this does in the morning but unless this is an error I’m seeing, CRIS opened this at 161 earlier in the week for it’s small group of pro market makers. I’m waiting on a response from friend for confirmation. Thought you’d all find this interesting.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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GL I’m riding with you! What number did you get on the total? I see it down to 220.5 now.

Real reason I popped back in has to do with tomorrow CBB and the season opener at 2pm which is actually 11am where Pacific and Stanford will play. You know my early start time angle……Total has gone from 140 to 138 this morning on low volume/limits. It will be interesting to see what this does in the morning but unless this is an error I’m seeing, CRIS opened this at 161 earlier in the week for it’s small group of pro market makers. I’m waiting on a response from friend for confirmation. Thought you’d all find this interesting.
223. Down to 220.5 on DK now. CLE up to -4 and TOR up to -2 as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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My guy is hearing that it may be Covid that is ripping through Lakers locker room. Bev out today, LeBron may be as well.

I jumped on more Cavs -4 for bunch…..can always come back the other way on overreaction.

Edit: Wenyen Gabriel also out sick. LeBron and Davis are both going to play.

Edit2: Apparently Gabriel is playing and Russ looks like OKC Russ Circa 2017.
 
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Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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HRB, I was surprised that you didn’t call out the Cavs/LAL under given it’s an early west coast start. Any particular reason you don’t see this as a good spot today?
The first quarter had me questioning my bet but the scoring ground to a halt in the second half so it was all good. I’m assuming HRB was betting unders along the way?
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Life and Times……

Return home from sports bar with wife after the 1pm games per our ritual. Working on 4 hours sleep (even with clock turned back) so took a 90 min nap. Upon waking and coming downstairs to the Bucs/Rams game on this convo happened:

Wife: Who do we have here?
HRB: Nobody. There’s only two 4pm games today and we don’t have anything in either. Remember I told you this at (sports bar)?

3 min later (after a replay of previous down)……..

Wife: Do we need anything here?
HRB: No. (while exhibiting patience)

45 seconds later (after another replay)…….

Wife: Who do we have here again?
HRB: Seriously? (while not exhibiting patience) You’ve asked me 3x since I came downstairs and two other times before we got back home.
Wife: (kinda sulking) I hate it when we don’t have anyone in the game!

Yes friends, there is an action junkie under this roof.
 

HomeRunBaker

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HRB, I was surprised that you didn’t call out the Cavs/LAL under given it’s an early west coast start. Any particular reason you don’t see this as a good spot today?
I considered it but the Lakers have been so volatile scoring early in games this season and the Cavs have been fast starters. My idea was to evaluate for in-game which would have worked perfectly………except (see post above), I fell asleep.

The reason I didn’t mention anything is simply bc I had several other thoughts in each game and could only write so much. I said this last year (or year before) but you can pretty much auto-play these on your own at this point they run so strong. I have trouble acting in this manner but sometimes with this I do……and really probably should have today as JERIHOF noted.
 

bellowthecat

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You've emphasized the early start time unders so much that I was damn near shocked your post this morning didn't mention the Lakers game. I was too late to get any of your numbers, but I auto played that Lakers under at 221.5 without a second thought.
 

zak1013

lurker
Jul 14, 2005
7
I considered it but the Lakers have been so volatile scoring early in games this season and the Cavs have been fast starters. My idea was to evaluate for in-game which would have worked perfectly………except (see post above), I fell asleep.

The reason I didn’t mention anything is simply bc I had several other thoughts in each game and could only write so much. I said this last year (or year before) but you can pretty much auto-play these on your own at this point they run so strong. I have trouble acting in this manner but sometimes with this I do……and really probably should have today as JERIHOF noted.
Helpful. Thank you as always for the insight! These threads are great.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Anyone looking to join me for some degen action in tonight’s SNF you can tail these…..

1st TD Scorer:

* Isiah Pacheco
* JuJu Smith-Schuster

I got each at +950
 

HomeRunBaker

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Love first TD degen plays. I’ve got Hardman at +1800 because I’m a real sicko.
Nothing wrong with that. Whenever you have guys like Kelce and Henry taking money you always find great value in these games. I hit on Dawson Knox last week……he was good to me a couple times last year for these too.

My other prop is Henry Under 93.5 yards. Outrageous number driven up by the public. KC should dominate time of possession, fill the box and likely have a 2H lead that would minimize Henry. I wanted to play 1Q Under but only 9.5 out there and I needed to find a 10
 

HomeRunBaker

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As expected, the Clippers are dictating pace. This is going to be walk it up, iso, 2-man game…..for 48 min. Both teams shooting lights out in 1Q. Going to be hammering a live Under once someone hits Paul George with a fire estinguisher.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Both teams combining for 60% shooting but mostly George and Clarkson without role players involved much earlier. Added more U224.5 and loving this live play right here. Pace is sustainable……60% shooting is not.

If wife wasn’t sleeping she’d be loving how overleveraged we are here…..until she’s not.

Edit: Great start to 2Q then within :50 came a layup, 3-pointer, 4-pointer and 3-pointer. First it was George and now Clarkson keeping the Over in play. Live is still only 225.5 despite these shooting shenanigans.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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93 point 2nd Half (43 point 4th Quarter). Game total under cashes with ease.

Nice sweep today on the NBA picks.
This was one of those games where we are trailing at the half, in this case by a significant margin, but you know that it is only due to a ridiculous shot making pct and you want to keep adding to the inflated Under knowing that regression is coming……but you are already way overleveraged that you add a little more. 2H Total was 111.5 and never moved.

This morning has been a complete shitshow w college hoops movement being insane but I think I’ve got a handle on it…….scratch that, no I don’t. Nuts!
Real reason I popped back in has to do with tomorrow CBB and the season opener at 2pm which is actually 11am where Pacific and Stanford will play. You know my early start time angle……Total has gone from 140 to 138 this morning on low volume/limits. It will be interesting to see what this does in the morning but unless this is an error I’m seeing, CRIS opened this at 161 earlier in the week for it’s small group of pro market makers. I’m waiting on a response from friend for confirmation. Thought you’d all find this interesting.
Total went from 138.5 to 137 then smashed to 134. So many colors flashing it is hard to distinguish what it coming from group, individuals and/or head fakes that may show later. I think there’s like 170 CBB games today.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Best I like today is Denver -7.5/-8 as the Spurs are not only coming back down to earth but crashing like an asteroid! Nuggets need to reel some wins together too.

Other strong leans are Pelicans -5, Celtics -3.5, Sacramento +7.5, and one that got away from me at the overnight in the Cavs -4 who I’d have up there with the Nuggets had I gotten the -1 opener. Don’t know what to do with the Lakers and their supposed flu/illness/Covid situation as I’d like them here if not for this info.
 

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Behind Studio 42
D'Angelo Russell u5.5 assists (up to/including -135, seeing -115)
Kyle Anderson u9.5 points (seeing -140, -145 is fine, but no more)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Lakers down 76-71 at the half. This is a reason why I was hesitant to play their early start time Under over the weekend as they have shown a propensity to exchange layup lines with the opponent for large stretches of the game. I don’t trust this team in keeping the score down as I usually am with LeBron-paced teams.

Looking at playing 2H Under in Cavs/Clippers. Both teams shooting lights out early but have settled into a half court defensive game since the starters returned mid-2Q. I expect this to continue in the 2H and will play Under anything above 105.

Edit: Seeing 2H total at 104 which is tight. I’m playing it a little but certainly not as aggressively if I had gotten a 106-107.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Looking at playing 2H Under in Cavs/Clippers. Both teams shooting lights out early but have settled into a half court defensive game since the starters returned mid-2Q. I expect this to continue in the 2H and will play Under anything above 105.

Edit: Seeing 2H total at 104 which is tight. I’m playing it a little but certainly not as aggressively if I had gotten a 106-107.
Well that was an easy cash…….until teams combined for 20 pts in the final 1:57. Read was spot on, file the result under negative variance.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Don’t feel like writing stuff up as I prepare to be visited by Tripical Storm/Hurricane Nicole later tonight as I’m 4 miles from the coast. Played…..

Hawks -3.5
Wolves +1
Nets -3 (probably best)

Number is long gone but played Ballarmine overnight +12 over a rebuilding Louisville team who was only laying 12 bc name on their jersey reads “Louisville.” It’s down to 9 now and still don’t hate it. I’ll cap a handful of teams who stick out on page and this UL is one who went 1-1 vs two D-2 schools in exhibitions and even the win was dicey.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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Don’t feel like writing stuff up as I prepare to be visited by Tripical Storm/Hurricane Nicole later tonight as I’m 4 miles from the coast. Played…..

Hawks -3.5
Wolves +1
Nets -3 (probably best)

Number is long gone but played Ballarmine overnight +12 over a rebuilding Louisville team who was only laying 12 bc name on their jersey reads “Louisville.” It’s down to 9 now and still don’t hate it. I’ll cap a handful of teams who stick out on page and this UL is one who went 1-1 vs two D-2 schools in exhibitions and even the win was dicey.
Stay safe HRB!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Stay safe HRB!
Thanks I don’t think it’s going to be too bad (hopefully not “famous last words”).

Ballarmine won as 8-pt dogs, hope someone got that. Also hope someone was on top of the Mavs/Magic time change as the afternoon game finished 21 points Under the closing total. Gold! Freakin Gold!
 

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Behind Studio 42
Derrick White over 14.5 points+rebounds+assists. -120 is the best price on bet365 of the books in my state, -125 DK. Acceptable through -140 depending on yours.

Cameron Payne under 8.5 dimes, good through -145. -130 at pointsbet is what I'm seeing best for me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Derrick White over 14.5 points+rebounds+assists. -120 is the best price on bet365 of the books in my state, -125 DK. Acceptable through -140 depending on yours.

Cameron Payne under 8.5 dimes, good through -145. -130 at pointsbet is what I'm seeing best for me.
The problem with the way RAS releases their props is that Prop Builder moves the number and the price immediately.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Been sick as a dog all day but one late night one left that I like is Sacramento -4, who continues to be undervalued, against the LeBron-less Lakers. I like Over 231 and Sac TT Over 117.5 too. This should be a no-defense track meet with the Kings having the better shooters/scorers.

My guess:

Kings 128
Lakers 113