Silver Dollar - The Official 2022-23 NBA Betting Thread!

Mloaf71

lurker
Jul 13, 2005
486
I played some Capela U21.5 PRA. Then a dabble on some lower numbers. He’s had a tough start to the series, hoping it continues.
 

Mloaf71

lurker
Jul 13, 2005
486
I played some Capela U21.5 PRA. Then a dabble on some lower numbers. He’s had a tough start to the series, hoping it continues.
I had as low as U18.5. That 3rd Q outburst made it dicey but paid off in the end. Covered for the Hawks second half outburst costing me Game and TT Unders.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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I’ve been adding to Den in game here between 0 and -4 at +adjusted levels as they started slow. Not sure this Minnesota team wants to travel back to Denver and the longer this stays close the more I think Denver eventually pulls away.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
27,641
I’ve been adding to Den in game here between 0 and -4 at +adjusted levels as they started slow. Not sure this Minnesota team wants to travel back to Denver and the longer this stays close the more I think Denver eventually pulls away.
I’ve got some Pk and -1.5 to go along with the pregame 1H and full game Unders.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Well the in-games didn’t work out and we snuck the Under in by a half point in OT (that I found out about when I woke up this morning geez).

Played Celtics -11 last night but once this gets to -12.5/-13 I wouldn’t be touching. The much safer play once this number gets blown out imo is the Hawks TT Under. I’m waiting for those to pop up for me. That should be good.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
8,329
Well the in-games didn’t work out and we snuck the Under in by a half point in OT (that I found out about when I woke up this morning geez).

Played Celtics -11 last night but once this gets to -12.5/-13 I wouldn’t be touching. The much safer play once this number gets blown out imo is the Hawks TT Under. I’m waiting for those to pop up for me. That should be good.
Hawks TT is what I hit, though getting heavily limited and trying to be creative on it to get more down. 108.5 is the TT, if Murray is suspended I wonder if they will really struggle offensively in this one.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Hawks TT is what I hit, though getting heavily limited and trying to be creative on it to get more down. 108.5 is the TT, if Murray is suspended I wonder if they will really struggle offensively in this one.
I expect him to and I believe the market does as well which is beginning to push the side number higher and the total lower. Murray’s offense was critical in them getting the G3 win as he made a ton of high difficulty shots when we were contesting well.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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Heat/Bucks are a combined 10/19 for 3 in the first quarter AND Jimmy is going supernova. O/U is only slightly above projected (224 vs 218 pregame). I’m adding 2 units to the under here.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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Been a rough few days for unders between OTs, Celtics defense collapses and SuperNova Butler.

Back at it tonight with Knicks/CLE under 202.5 and LAL/MEM 222.5 and Mia/Mil 220.5.

I also have 4 units on the under Bos/ATL game tomorrow 232.
 

zak1013

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
Jul 14, 2005
76
Thanks for sharing this. The contrarian spots are often very tempting and I have often wondered about a lot of the points raised in that thread - super helpful to see them addressed.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Thanks for sharing this. The contrarian spots are often very tempting and I have often wondered about a lot of the points raised in that thread - super helpful to see them addressed.
Do not confuse this with my foolproof “poker table consensus plays” which have a long term “success” rate of close to 15%. I ignore the contrarian numbers that a site provides however fading poker degen consensus talk is proven gold! Lol
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
8,329
Do not confuse this with my foolproof “poker table consensus plays” which have a long term “success” rate of close to 15%. I ignore the contrarian numbers that a site provides however fading poker degen consensus talk is proven gold! Lol
What's the poker table saying these days? Trae Young going to lead the Hawks to victory?!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
27,641
What's the poker table saying these days? Trae Young going to lead the Hawks to victory?!
I’ve been on road trip just returned from NJ last night so haven’t been at the tables. I’ll be sure to listen for what is being said about the Heat.
 

Caspir

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Jul 16, 2005
6,674
I bet the under and took Celtics money line + Tatum 25+ points, but I have no idea what the Celtics are doing with themselves at this point.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Played Under 219 Lakers/Grizz good. Don’t know why this number isn’t being adjusted late in this series. I expect this to close 217.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Played Under 219 Lakers/Grizz good. Don’t know why this number isn’t being adjusted late in this series. I expect this to close 217.
Chicken Dinner!

I don’t know if the Knicks/Heat total on Sunday is a crazy 1pm adjustment which we haven’t been seeing or the Heat’s pace and scoring continues to be undervalued. Do the books think the Cavs are playing or something? Even with my aggressive early game adjustment I have this number off.

Played Over 207.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
27,641
Does Denver TT seem low at 115.5?
I have a little Denver -3 at home against what I feel is an overvalued Suns team. No real option on the Total but I did sprinkle some Winning Margin 17+ wagers. I think a blowout is live if they are knocking down three’s.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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I have a little Denver -3 at home against what I feel is an overvalued Suns team. No real option on the Total but I did sprinkle some Winning Margin 17+ wagers. I think a blowout is live if they are knocking down three’s.
Anyone play the winning margins? Got +1800 on 17-19. Very happy Cameron did not inflict me with Payne and missed that 3-pointer on their final possession.
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
5,570
Anyone play the winning margins? Got +1800 on 17-19. Very happy Cameron did not inflict me with Payne and missed that 3-pointer on their final possession.
I fucking cowardly cashed out a denver 17-20 margin i had placed all day at the last minute. Damn it
 

Mloaf71

lurker
Jul 13, 2005
486
HRB spot on. I was too chicken to max it out. Hit Den ML, -4, -10. Should have taken your advice and gone higher but a nice night overall.

Still been too scared at what we might see tomorrow to touch the O207.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
44,811
I like the Knicks in these Sunday matinee games. Probably just going in at ML. Maybe sprinkle some Brunson props.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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I can’t believe they have a game 7 starting at 12:30 in Cali. Any thoughts for that game?
G7 Unders are historically gold but this contradicts the Kings path which is to play untrafast. I lean to the Kings not responding optimally to a G7, not taking the Warriors out of their comfort zone. I like Warriors and Kings TT Under.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Playing these right now with the expectation that Butler either doesn’t play on Tuesday, 90% imo, or he is limited.

* Knicks -6.5
* Heat TT Under 100.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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I would love to be stepping in on Live Under with the pace of this game slowed to a crawl but damn these whistles and I wouldn’t expect both teams to continue missing from the line. Hard Pass but so tempting.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Nicely done. Kings well short of the 115.
I don’t have an answer why I didn’t play this game either pre or start of 4Q Under. Glad I shared though. I had said all week that the Kings did not want a G7…..yet didn’t act on it. Weird.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
27,641
Playing these right now with the expectation that Butler either doesn’t play on Tuesday, 90% imo, or he is limited.

* Knicks -6.5
* Heat TT Under 100.5
Added another wager for Tuesday

* Lakers +4.5

Great opportunity for Lakers to steal one with the Warriors bouncing back on one day off an emotional G7 road win. Get it quick this will close 3/3.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
27,641
Sprinkled about a .3u flier on Nuggets in 4 at +800 as I see this path occurring more often than that number indicates. The Suns lack of continuity, injury risk, and a higher rate of “quit” then a typical team if they get down in G3 make this good value. I expect the Suns to play much better in G2 but this number seems off.