owes you $50
- Apr 20, 2003
Do the 76ers lay a dud in Brooklyn tonight?
I think Philly wins but like Bos/Atl I will mostly use these G3’s as a set-up for a G4 sweep/romp. Maybe like .5u on both favorites with G4 having potential Memphis-like confidence vibes regardless of win or loss.Do the 76ers lay a dud in Brooklyn tonight?
You’re winning. Presumably much of this on sharp action w CLV. That gets you limited everywhere but Circa nowadays. It’s like the old poker adage…..if you can’t recognize the fish at the table it’s likely you. In sports betting 2023, if you’re not getting limited and needing creative ways to get down, it’s likely you are the fish.Quick aside here -- I will never figure out these VIP programs. Ceasar's has been in MA for a month, someone reached out to me to join their program - I did, sure why not? I initially got two different deposit bonuses from them, and after a month I've acquired 75k reward tier points. 150k in a year is apparently their top program and you get free hotel stays, $150 a month, etc etc. I reached out today to ask about another deposit bonus. My process is I deposit $Y, and if I get to Yx4 (I cash out all excess after winning then come back in if I lose the remainder). Today I was told I didn't have enough "activity" on their book to justify it. Keep in mind, I'm on pace to get 1mm tier credits, which is 6.5x their highest level. So maybe it's activity... or maybe it's that I'm up $7000 net of deposits and withdrawals, but they didn't say that. If anyone knows the secret sauce for these let me know. Right now I'm VIP at DK, FD and (maybe) Ceasar's. Being able to balance the incentives they throw at you, plus the sports betting can really add up. HRB heard about the insane play I negotiated via FD in my first month on a futures play. Managing the VIP contacts and negotiating perks is time very well spent. I heard Barstool is offering 25% deposit bonuses up to $25k, but haven't been approached / used that book in weeks. Does Wynn have any type of VIP program? I know they have these reward tiers, but have yet to have anyone reach out. The reward tiers are fairly useless, though we live close to Encore Boston, so can get soft benefits through them. Still angry they limited me so much on Sixth Man Award bets at +420 and +300.
Speaking of which... we find out at 7pm if Brogdon takes it or not. So far 30% of the vote is known (via the Award tracker google spreadsheet) and he had 60% of the first place votes.
Absolutely. Seriously great call there. Thanks!
Never in doubt.What a cover by the Sixers. Wowza.
Worth the slight detour!Loving all this injury stuff as markets overreact.
Played some Clippers +7 and Over 224 for .5u and 1u respectively, in the context of this one game. Literally took exit off highway when news hit. I expect total over to get hit as Kawhi out of the lineup actually increases pace and hurts LAC defense while giving us more Russ flying up and down the court creating havoc (for both teams lol). Don’t really understand that move and think that comes back to where it was.
So for sides I like Clippers, Sixers and Warriors. The first two I played a little, the Warriors I haven’t yet but likely will….don’t fight the Ewing Theory (or whatever phenomenon you’d like to call it).
Props sucked yesterday but running it back again with Harden Under 19.5 points for all the same reasons as the first two games.
Usually angles get worn out fairly quickly but between the early Sun NBA totals and the Ewing theory line movements in the other direction make the NBA special.Worth the slight detour!
Never underestimate Moses Moody!Poole starting, GP3 out with illness. Sounds like a lot of points.
That was a weird game. The only bet I've placed this week was that 1H bet on Milwaukee in game 2. I have absolutely no read on anything going on in these playoffs right now and will be here hoping for some charitable, clear-eyed sharps tossing out some nuggets of wisdom.Never underestimate Moses Moody!
I went in big on Dubs ML last night. Always love when teams with pedigree go down 2-0 and come home.That was a weird game. The only bet I've placed this week was that 1H bet on Milwaukee in game 2. I have absolutely no read on anything going on in these playoffs right now and will be here hoping for some charitable, clear-eyed sharps tossing out some nuggets of wisdom.
I like the Under there but I’m concerned with the Knicks being able to dictate tempo at home.First half Minny is creative. As of now 64% of bets are on Denver…77% of the $ is on Minny +2. First half is more pure, that’s great.
I’m surprised you didn’t have Knicks/Cavs (or Cavs TT under) listed over Celtics -5
I was prepared to with a W tonight but I think this makes it 9 losses out of last 12 in Atlanta with this core. It’s dog or pass for me…..probably pass.I’m hammering Celtics -5.5 for game 4.
Then combine the two…..Pace doesn’t matter when it’s a brick-a-thon
Yup, early start time clearly trumps all. Funny thing is I went conservative with an alternate line and even that is looking dubious.Then combine the two…..
I’ve had debates elsewhere by otherwise smart cappers on the validity of my early stat time adjustments. I’ll just say….fuck them! It’s the gift that keeps on giving until numbers are adjusted aggressively.
The good thing, I guess, is that I like the 3 remaining early start Unders this weekend regardless of start time. Consider them plays for me with the two tomorrow being unloaded on. Let everyone have their day legs this weekend!Yup, early start time clearly trumps all. Funny thing is I went conservative with an alternate line and even that is looking dubious.
Slower pace than expected and 7-30 from 3 says it all.
A little pushback: So Celtics moneyline is 71% odds, and you’re trying to create a 50% odds chance by adding a ton of stuff to it. Why not just bet a little more on the mL vs the 6 leg parlay (which also only wins if the Ml hits)?Tried a new approach last night that worked. ML bets at -250 or so aren’t very attractive but when you combine with achievable props, it gets the odds to about even. So, I did Lakers ML +
LeBron 25+ points
LeBron 8+ rebounds
LeBron 5+ assists
LeBron 1 block
LeBron 1 steal
Went 5 for 5 so nice night. Obviously, you run the risk of injury or blowout, which scared me last night in first half.
Tonight, I might do same approach with Celtics + individual player steals figuring they’ll be more defensively active.
Strategy definitely in beta testing.
We got good numbers. 206.5 was up for over a full day….it’s at 203 now. This number would need to begin with a candlestick for me to not see value here.Today:
- Under Knicks/Cavs 206.5
- Under Sac/GSW 239
- Under Bos/atl 232
- Celtics -5.5
Really like the Celtics + under play as I think it gives leverage to Atlanta team total coming in low as the Celtics D effort improves meaningfully from game 3 to 4, potentially as they try to hunt meme matchups on offense slowing the pace.
My rationale is that the ML is a constant in either scenario and if the Celtics win, I’d expect there to be increased defensive pressure. And these would be individual steals bets so would be:A little pushback: So Celtics moneyline is 71% odds, and you’re trying to create a 50% odds chance by adding a ton of stuff to it. Why not just bet a little more on the mL vs the 6 leg parlay (which also only wins if the Ml hits)?
Yup. And one team taking a lead to hopefully avoid any OT/foul optionality. Let’s just avoid the total blowout that changes the pace away from milking 20 seconds per possession…Both teams shooting over 50% in 1Q but the pace is so delicious that we are still on the number. This bodes very well.
These early game 2Q’s have been something…Both teams shooting over 50% in 1Q but the pace is so delicious that we are still on the number. This bodes very well.