Thanks for the info; I did not know about Milwaukee's injury reporting history, interesting.
At the very least, sounds like a number of ticking health bombs that a physical team like Miami could set off.
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
At the very least, sounds like a number of ticking health bombs that a physical team like Miami could set off.
Not seeing any Giannis props yet but worth taking a look at the unders here once they’re posted?
Would have had this work done earlier but spent 13 hours in airports yesterday. People mock me for driving 1300 miles in one shot if I had to do it over I would without blinking. Waiting for Turo host to unlock car as I’m standing in middle of T.F. Green Lot in a t-shirt then taking pics of a dark car….in the dark. Up since 6am with coffee and my nephews cat on the table getting shit done. Off to a live sportsbook now for the games….aka heaven on earth.
Rough start for me in this years playoffs as my Harden prop desperately needs a pulled hammy. I didn’t like the Under in this one, had it a little higher and both teams have shooters/scorers all over the floor….if I have reason to not play an early game Under that “should” mean I see an edge to the Over, but I didn’t act on it. Sigh.
Having said all that….this 2H of 104 STILL seems very low despite some regression with the hot shooting and likely better close out defense in a 2H. I’m passing but wouldn’t fault anyone for taking some 2H Over here.
Having said all that….this 2H of 104 STILL seems very low despite some regression with the hot shooting and likely better close out defense in a 2H. I’m passing but wouldn’t fault anyone for taking some 2H Over here.
This Game scares me, on the under only. Don’t want to watch these two teams trade 3s all night.
Also, still mad at that garbage harden 3 for HRB.
Almost got lucky with Harden there. I’ll come right back with his Under and the Unders look good in that series moving forward too. All those 1H open looks aren’t going to be there once adjustments occur and the pace will be slow, slow, slow.
I thought we were in good shape midway through the 4Q of the late game until those 5 consecutive three’s with a couple FT’s sandwiches in. 17 pts in 90 seconds tend to hurt Unders. It was still a good NBA night and “was” a glorious UFC night until the final 3 fights. Good day, but had epic potential.
Sunday stuff I like…..
Heat +9.5
Under 219 Heat/Bucks
Nuggets -7.5
Under 227.5 Lakers/Grizz
Grizz -3.5
Clips +7.5
Under 225.5 Clips/Suns
So far I’ve played Nuggets and Under in Lakers/Grizz. I like a prop of AD Over 6.5 1Q Pts. LeBron will defer in the 1Q and looking to get JJJ a couple early fouls is expected to be a part of their gameplan which he will be more than happy to oblige or concede an easy 2
Last edited:
Heat have shot 58% from 3 in this game.
Bucks have shot 23% from 3.
the difference in 3 point shooting is… only 12… the Bucks took almost 2x the amount of 3s! In fact, the Bucks missed 32 3s…. The heat only took 24!
I plan to hammer the Bucks in game 2 if the line comes in -7 or better.
Bucks have shot 23% from 3.
the difference in 3 point shooting is… only 12… the Bucks took almost 2x the amount of 3s! In fact, the Bucks missed 32 3s…. The heat only took 24!
I plan to hammer the Bucks in game 2 if the line comes in -7 or better.
Is a total up? I am extremely interested in the Heat’s TT. That offense without Herro and a defense that can gameplan for no Herro…..is going to struggle. Especially coming off a win when primed for a G2 exhale.
I’m telling ya, this Bucks team has something wrong with it. They aren’t playoff-ready by any means…..and this was apparent pre-Giannis injury.
Last edited:
220.
I don’t see anywhere you can bet the team total yet, but backing into it implies 107, which agreed seems like a heavy short.
@HomeRunBaker Looks like the Harden points is back at 20.5. Do you like any of these H2H matchups vs Harden (CJ, Dinwiddle) at + money (or +points) or just jam Harden?
Spencer is +4.5 (-125) / +190ml
Cameron Johnson is +5.5 (-120) / +235ml
Bridges is -6.5 (-115) / -370 ml
Spencer is +4.5 (-125) / +190ml
Cameron Johnson is +5.5 (-120) / +235ml
Bridges is -6.5 (-115) / -370 ml
Last edited:
I wouldn’t mess with the other stuff but I’m coming right back with the Harden Under. It took him 21 FGA to reach 23 pts and had to make 7 three’s to do so. Little NBA secret is that Harden cannot finish inside the arc right now with his injuries. He’s a pure facilitator now (13 assts despite 21 FGA) whose offense got going due to all those early threes going down. I expect his FGA to likely be half the number of G1 assuming he doesn’t go full blown Steph on us in the 1Q.
Bucks have moved from -5 to -7.5 already and that game doesn’t tip off until Wednesday.
edit now -8.5
edit now -8.5
Last edited:
Prop Builder doesn’t have Wiggins listed as a player option. Anyone with access to Wiggins props they are a real solid fade here in his second game. Under Points, Under 3-Pt, Under PRA with reasonable numbers. Thinking 12.5, 1.5, and 18.5? I’m guessing on what market would be but historicallly a player off a layoff with a big first game struggles in the second and oftentimes 3rd, 4th.
I had about a 2500-word write up on a game Wednesday that somehow got deleted prior to post. It’s on the same strength level as the Celtics/Atlanta TT Under of this past Saturday. I’m super excited about it and will redo by tomorrow. I should do a survey of the play. One guess, it’s a side and not a total.
It’s going to be Memphis +1
HRB’s style:
- supporting cast plays much better at home vs on the road in the playoffs.
- if a star is out expect them to play at 1.5x their capabilities during normal times due to picking up the slack and opposing team taking their foot off the gas
- if a road team wins a big game to take the lead in a series, expect them to not come out with the same intensity (call it complacency, over confidence, load management, regression, etc)
- he liked Memphis in game 1 as was.
- lakers shot 43% from 3 in game 1, expect that to fade.
- he will put a pizza wager on Mem -17+
I wasn’t on this game (hadn’t looked at anything), but may have just talked myself into a 2 unit play impersonating HRB.
meanwhile I have 1.5 units on Mem +1 now and getting limited to $163 on adjusted lines or parlays with heat or hawks team total unders…
HRB’s style:
- supporting cast plays much better at home vs on the road in the playoffs.
- if a star is out expect them to play at 1.5x their capabilities during normal times due to picking up the slack and opposing team taking their foot off the gas
- if a road team wins a big game to take the lead in a series, expect them to not come out with the same intensity (call it complacency, over confidence, load management, regression, etc)
- he liked Memphis in game 1 as was.
- lakers shot 43% from 3 in game 1, expect that to fade.
- he will put a pizza wager on Mem -17+
I wasn’t on this game (hadn’t looked at anything), but may have just talked myself into a 2 unit play impersonating HRB.
meanwhile I have 1.5 units on Mem +1 now and getting limited to $163 on adjusted lines or parlays with heat or hawks team total unders…
Last edited:
Jesus F!! I had takes on like 7 specific players in G2 but you pretty much nailed my entire thought process here. I’ll still write it up later but seriously wtf?
Plot twist, I’ve had a keystroke tracker on your phone for 6 mths. Don’t check your bank account.
Noticing the defensive adjustments already taking place in these G2’s. Totals once again slow slow slow to adjust….maybe a game or two behind as they have been in years past as well. Great time to find these spots possibly even blindfolded.
Under in Cleve/NY and the Hawks TT are my two favorites tomorrow. Like them both lots.
Under in Cleve/NY and the Hawks TT are my two favorites tomorrow. Like them both lots.
Last edited:
DK capped me at $85 on the Hawks TT, but I was able to get a larger bet down at Wynn.
Actually some better numbers out there since I posted yesterday. I’ll post some props too. Won with AD and Harden, lost on Wiggins, push on Grant’s DNP. So much value and liquidity in these markets during playoffs.
Friday night.
* Under 212 Cavs/Knicks
Under Cavs TT will be good too once it’s out. If you’re going to tail play it as soon as you can this is going to close 208/209.
* Under 212 Cavs/Knicks
Under Cavs TT will be good too once it’s out. If you’re going to tail play it as soon as you can this is going to close 208/209.
No Heat TT, or that’s implied by the under in the game? Still lingering at 106.5. I wonder if this game is going to have a Knicks/Cavs game 2 feel to it.
I lean that way. I didn’t include it in my best plays though.
I also played these props this morning. Fading the Lakers role players here too. All are point props.
Under 5.5 Vanderbilt
Under 11.5 Hachimura
Under 12.5 Gobert
I played Bucks 1H -4.5
As much concern I have for their health this is a classic buy low spot on a desperate team…..and the Heat are without Herro.
For tonight:
- We already discussed, but I'm on Memphis after impersonating HRB. There has been a big movement in $$, now with 68% of the bets on LAL, but 74% of the $$ on Memphis. Line has only moved from +1 to pick 'em. I have a variety of plays on this. Memphis, Under, Memphis + under, Lakers team total under, some sprinkled in under Lakers team total + Memphis -6.5. Under is also getting hit with $$, falling from 227 to 225.5. Good sign there. Lot of unit risk to this game...
- I took Bucks right when the game listed, plus some under, plus some Heat team total under.
- I have a little bit on Min +8.5 tonight. I had hit the under when it came out at 224, it's fallen to 222.
- We already discussed, but I'm on Memphis after impersonating HRB. There has been a big movement in $$, now with 68% of the bets on LAL, but 74% of the $$ on Memphis. Line has only moved from +1 to pick 'em. I have a variety of plays on this. Memphis, Under, Memphis + under, Lakers team total under, some sprinkled in under Lakers team total + Memphis -6.5. Under is also getting hit with $$, falling from 227 to 225.5. Good sign there. Lot of unit risk to this game...
- I took Bucks right when the game listed, plus some under, plus some Heat team total under.
- I have a little bit on Min +8.5 tonight. I had hit the under when it came out at 224, it's fallen to 222.
I’m in pretty aggressively on Bucks -4.5 1H and under Heat TT 106.5. Good luck tonight, everyone.
It’s back to what it has been all week. My play was anticipating him being out. I want all the advantages of a desperate team coming together against one exhaling with Morant out. What really was affected was the Under where I now have 4 pts CLV. Everything pregame played out perfect….. now LFG!!!
I am right there with you guys on a lot of these plays tonight. @Red Averages talked me into Memphis doing his HRB impression, which really was spot on. I appreciate all the insight I get here.
Bucks -4.5 1H
Bucks -6
MIA-MIL U221
MIA U106
MEM +1
LAL U114
Half units on
Vanderbilt U5.5
Hachimura U11.5
Gobert U12.5
Here we go!
Bucks -4.5 1H
Bucks -6
MIA-MIL U221
MIA U106
MEM +1
LAL U114
Half units on
Vanderbilt U5.5
Hachimura U11.5
Gobert U12.5
Here we go!
Gianni’s is out again.
Which is probably good for the Bucks as I said in the playoff gamethread
Which is probably good for the Bucks as I said in the playoff gamethread
Last edited:
I had some Memphis first half + under 116 as a parlay for 0.5 unit that won 2. So added 1 unit to Bucks -3.5 first half after the Giannis is out update.
I came back with a little Lakers +8.5 for some hedge and a large middle. Don’t think this will be a blowout.
Thanks for reminding me of this @Brand Name and while these games haven’t been grindfests we’ve seen one result when the Heat are shooting lights out and another when the Bucks run them out of the building with their hot shooting. Variance at its finest and this series has a long way to go.