Silver Dollar - The Official 2022-23 NBA Betting Thread!

Brand Name

make hers mark
Staff member
Dope
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
3,780
Behind Studio 42
Davidson/La Salle, o137.5, -105 only at FoxBet. Hammering this. Over +6% EV, have it around -119. This means for every $100 bet on this total, I'd expect an average of $6 in return. Hammer until they fix it!

And they did within 2 minutes, liberally. Gone to 139, -118/-118. Holy hell that's gross. The hold on that is miserable. Do not bet.

Good stuff though, HRB, fun read. I look at lot into offshore trends, Circa, any of these non-limited anybody with a pulse book outs as well. God do I love SpankOdds, even if I can't take advantage of offshores. I basically weight for injuries and a bunch of other factors, like coaches and such, but that varies per sport. Coaching weights matter most in college because it's expected typically the same coach YOY in the same school is likely to get the same type of recruit skill strength.

Football I like to look at something like consistency YOY of OC, HC, QB, etc. I find holding one over another has had a huge R^2 to YOY wins. My models are Bayesian from my finance days and my father's teachings.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
43,876
Davidson/La Salle, o137.5, -105 only at FoxBet. Hammering this. Over +6% EV, have it around -119. This means for every $100 bet on this total, I'd expect an average of $6 in return. Hammer until they fix it!

And they did within 2 minutes, liberally. Gone to 139, -118/-118. Holy hell that's gross. The hold on that is miserable. Do not bet.

Good stuff though, HRB, fun read. I look at lot into offshore trends, Circa, any of these non-limited anybody with a pulse book outs as well. God do I love SpankOdds, even if I can't take advantage of offshores. I basically weight for injuries and a bunch of other factors, like coaches and such, but that varies per sport. Coaching weights matter most in college because it's expected typically the same coach YOY in the same school is likely to get the same type of recruit skill strength.
Damn, DK had 139.5 so I bought a few points. Thanks for the heads up. I know nothing about these teams so going in blind!
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Davidson/La Salle, o137.5, -105 only at FoxBet. Hammering this. Over +6% EV, have it around -119. This means for every $100 bet on this total, I'd expect an average of $6 in return. Hammer until they fix it!

And they did within 2 minutes, liberally. Gone to 139, -118/-118. Holy hell that's gross. The hold on that is miserable. Do not bet.
Another day in the life, right? Numbers are often gone in minutes if not seconds and the discipline necessary to pass is sometimes like having a screwdriver twisted into your side. Sometimes waiting we’ll get some buy back and the number shows up later but that’s generally not the case.

Growing up in RI, I’d pick up my buddy and we’d drive to a Federal Hill and/or Silver Lake social club to bet games with cash. The guy would have some games with the lines written in pencil and hidden in the wall (gotta protect against the police shakedown raid lol). Whatever number they’d have written down at 2pm is what it would remain until tip off. We had little clue what we were doing but omg neither did they. Times have slightly changed lol. When we loved a game we’d have several people in the car taking turns going in then we’d hit the other club. They key was to do it when they had a card game going on or were busy so it didn’t raise eyebrows. So many characters in those clubs and the race track.

Good stuff though, HRB, fun read. I look at lot into offshore trends, Circa, any of these non-limited anybody with a pulse book outs as well. God do I love SpankOdds, even if I can't take advantage of offshores. I basically weight for injuries and a bunch of other factors, like coaches and such, but that varies per sport. Coaching weights matter most in college because it's expected typically the same coach YOY in the same school is likely to get the same type of recruit skill strength.
Your college basketball team floor/ceiling is specifically one of the core beliefs that Alan thought me years ago. There may be somewhat more variance to it today with the 3-pt shot, transfer protocols, etc but creating that baseline for a team was a game changer for me even though I only truly cap the games in the post-season.

Good stuff!
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
HRB, this was rambling in the best sense of the word, thanks! I'm fascinated by what the life and times of what being a professional sports gambler entail, many of them I wouldn't ask because they delve too deeply into personal information (I'm sure the weekend warriors among us would be horrified at the amounts you're putting on the line to make this a living for example). Any time you describe the behind the scenes details just know that you've got people enjoying the info.
I still consider myself a poker player first as that has been my primary consistent form of income, and how I have filed, for the last 8 years. Honestly, I don’t know how anyone can sit in front of a screen for 12-15 hours a day every day…..or would want to have that lifestyle. Some do though but the smart ones have hired people to do that for them. There are levels to the game for sure.
 

schillzilla

lurker
May 11, 2006
81
That was a fascinating post HRB. Will say that Alan Boston is one of the personalities featured in the wonderful book The Odds by Chad Millman.
- Armenian Greek Lurker out!
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
That was a fascinating post HRB. Will say that Alan Boston is one of the personalities featured in the wonderful book The Odds by Chad Millman.
- Armenian Greek Lurker out!
Yes he was. Cool story how that book happened too. Joe Lupo was the Director of The Stardust sports book in Vegas when Chad reached out to him about wanting to get in touch with Alan. He couldn’t believe someone would want to write a book about him and thought it was a set up. Finally he agreed to open up for the book and to this day remains one of his proudest accomplishments. Nothing is more enjoyable to him than to sign a copy of the book and hand it to someone. He and Chad ended up having a major falling out which is too bad but also a part of Alan’s “high variance” personality.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
It seems like half the league is a “Game Time Decision” tonight. I took a bite at some Under 230 in Nuggets/Pelicans on the read that Denver keeps Jokic out one more game. Porter also out so you’ll have a defensive upgrade/offensive downgrade there. NO is without Ingram and Zion too.
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
Staff member
Dope
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
3,780
Behind Studio 42
Hornets/Suns u229.0, got this in at -110 at Wynn, have it closer to -130, so it's good to -125 elsewhere at this number specifically. Nice.

Another day in the life, right? Numbers are often gone in minutes if not seconds and the discipline necessary to pass is sometimes like having a screwdriver twisted into your side. Sometimes waiting we’ll get some buy back and the number shows up later but that’s generally not the case.

Growing up in RI, I’d pick up my buddy and we’d drive to a Federal Hill and/or Silver Lake social club to bet games with cash. The guy would have some games with the lines written in pencil and hidden in the wall (gotta protect against the police shakedown raid lol). Whatever number they’d have written down at 2pm is what it would remain until tip off. We had little clue what we were doing but omg neither did they. Times have slightly changed lol. When we loved a game we’d have several people in the car taking turns going in then we’d hit the other club. They key was to do it when they had a card game going on or were busy so it didn’t raise eyebrows. So many characters in those clubs and the race track.


Your college basketball team floor/ceiling is specifically one of the core beliefs that Alan thought me years ago. There may be somewhat more variance to it today with the 3-pt shot, transfer protocols, etc but creating that baseline for a team was a game changer for me even though I only truly cap the games in the post-season.

Good stuff!
Thanks so much! I think in differing degrees it works for different sports. It's why the Jags on an alt win total, Eagles on a regular win total were prime for plucking. Will have more details about this this summer.

I'm only 30 so I love hearing stories about how it used to be given what technologies have changed as much. Especially when it's in both our old home state of RI, as I'm in NJ now, second most legal options to Nevada, if only we had Circa or anything remotely sharp. My god though, to see a description of the era no line changes between early afternoon and tipoff these days, that's...I mean, that's such a different and fascinating world, both in concealing but also no movement. Incredible.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Hornets/Suns u229.0, got this in at -110 at Wynn, have it closer to -130, so it's good to -125 elsewhere at this number specifically. Nice.



Thanks so much! I think in differing degrees it works for different sports. It's why the Jags on an alt win total, Eagles on a regular win total were prime for plucking. Will have more details about this this summer.

I'm only 30 so I love hearing stories about how it used to be given what technologies have changed as much. Especially when it's in both our old home state of RI, as I'm in NJ now, second most legal options to Nevada, if only we had Circa or anything remotely sharp. My god though, to see a description of the era no line changes between early afternoon and tipoff these days, that's...I mean, that's such a different and fascinating world, both in concealing but also no movement. Incredible.
I most definitely have enough stories to write a book…..or a movie. I’ve shared several here over the years but so many I haven’t as they were gambling specific that I didn’t think would resonate with most. That’s changed now that sports betting is in the mainstream.

One summer day we heard pitching injury info randomly on the radio that today would literally move the market in seconds. It was a big name pitcher I forget who and he was still like -220 (game ended up being close to a pick) on his sheet when we arrived for I think a 7pm start. So we get maybe +190 on a pick ‘em! Sweet! Or not lol.

We win the bet easily. We pick up the money the next morning at one place but the other wants to have a sit down. So I’m like 21 years old being asked to sit at a corner table of a social club in Federal Hill. At the time I vividly recall thinking of how I had my life mapped out and at age 21 this wasn’t how I anticipated it ending (of course that’s not how things work but I didn’t know). One of the two “older guys”, at the time we thought they were 65 when in actuality more like 40, takes the cigar out of his mouth and tells me and my buddy that “there was a little problem.” He goes on to say and I’ll paraphrase, “It was the hottest day of the summer yesterday, our fans weren’t working, and uh that game was supposed to be -120 not -220 but the pencil marker on the paper got smudged, Tommy didn’t realize it he was giving everyone the wrong number all day (he chuckles lol). We ended up cancelling all the bets on the game at 6pm so it’s a no-bet. See Tommy he’ll get you your money back.”

Without adding too much detail I knew some guys above his level at the race track and told him what happened. We got paid next day and were given an apology. That was eye opening.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Celtics have excelled on back end of B2B this year. This number keeps getting stretched out. Waiting on some Tatum confirmation but getting 4.5 here is awfully tasty.
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
Staff member
Dope
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
3,780
Behind Studio 42
-1.5 LAC +130 1H on DK. GO GO! -110 here by my stuff, that's a sweet thing to see in solid plus money.

Edit: Just as fast yanked to -125. FIFTY FIVE CENTS. Gotta be fast but oh BOY that is sweet to see when you do get it. Guessing a trader flipped a + and -, hell yeah.
 
Jun 2, 2016
844
Hanover, PA
Celtics have excelled on back end of B2B this year. This number keeps getting stretched out. Waiting on some Tatum confirmation but getting 4.5 here is awfully tasty.
I stayed away from this one due to the Jaylen news, but great call - Boston beat the opening 4.5, but lost to the closing 2.5. Great call on the DEN/NO under as well, wwwwaaaaayyyyy under. NBA was far more profitable that NCAA last night.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Bucks and Under moves…..have a good number on the latter now. I’ll assume it’s on no Jokic news on a B2B which should have been expected (and was by quite a few).

Many people are going back and forth on whether LeBron will play tonight. The spots aren’t really similar. Jokic was returning from injury and their playoff spot is secure. LeBron is not coming off injury, they need to secure wins against bad teams and it is the return of AD. On top of that there was a huge tell last night when Ham pulled LeBron with over 5 min in a 6-possession game. In the last Lakers double digit loss w LeBron several weeks ago he played to the final buzzer in a 13-pt loss. This is strong signal that he’s playing tonight.

Played some Lakers -7 on this expectation. I will scratch my head on this one if he sits.
 

zak1013

Member
Gold Supporter
Jul 14, 2005
23
DK offering three 25% profit boosts for NBA tonight so I got in on all three of these this afternoon at +113. Here we go!
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
They are having a free giveaway promo in Philly tonight. Wish I was aware.

“Here’s a hoop for you. And a hoop for you. Oh here’s a free hoop for you too!”

At some point when the promo ends I’m sure I’ll jump into a live Under. Will have to wait and see.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
82 point first quarter is wild. Teams are 14-20 from 3 to start the game!

I’ll be back in the Gambling saddle this weekend. Already got hit with $1250 in bonuses to come back and bet. Amazing what a few weeks away will do…
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
82 point first quarter is wild. Teams are 14-20 from 3 to start the game!

I’ll be back in the Gambling saddle this weekend. Already got hit with $1250 in bonuses to come back and bet. Amazing what a few weeks away will do…
I saw 256.5 during a TO and passed. Grrrrrr.
 
Jun 2, 2016
844
Hanover, PA
Thoughts about tonight's total for BOS/NY? I thought the number was low and it has been bet down to 224.5. Guessing their last three games away from home being low totals have swayed some. The previous game against NY this year went for 251, but all bigs were out. Looks like Smart and Mitchell Robinson out tonight (for regulars), but Horford and TL available.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Thoughts about tonight's total for BOS/NY? I thought the number was low and it has been bet down to 224.5. Guessing their last three games away from home being low totals have swayed some. The previous game against NY this year went for 251, but all bigs were out. Looks like Smart and Mitchell Robinson out tonight (for regulars), but Horford and TL available.
M-Rob was out for the Knicks in the first meeting as well. Celtics played small with tons of spacing and shot over 50% from three. The big thing for me was that this was during the part of the year when defense for the Knicks was optional and Thibs was letting them run up and down the floor. That hasn’t been the case over the last 6 weeks or so and their pace has dropped considerably. I would not place considerable weight on the Total based on that first matchup.

I agree with the market that the 227 overnight was too high for a Knicks game and I think it’s now about where it should be. They have been a solid Under team of late but worth paying attention to how much M-Rob affects the scoring in their games. His absence has hurt their defense pretty significantly up to this point but they are playing much slower now too. Will that change and open up more? Hard to say based on the Cavs game as they are willing walk the ball up partners. Personally I’ll be using this game for information purposes to see how/if the Knicks change their approach.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Word. I've been saying all along that they worry me more than anyone. Harden and Embiid seem to have clicked. Both are legit alphas on their own, know how to get the star treatment from refs. The Philly rotation and role players complement them well. Harris seems to have finally put the pieces together into the above average player that everyone thought that he could be. They have random samplings of defensive guys, shooters, and a free shot creator in Maxey. It's a really well put-together team and frightens me a bit as a Celtics fan.
Taking this from the other thread. I took some Sixers to win the EC at an ungodly +825 the other day. Boston, Milwaukee and Brooklyn should not be worlds ahead of them in the market imo.

For tonight, a little playing around we have Cleveland who have been terrible in the 1Q on the road against Houston, known for their quick starts and 4Q fades. Rockets 1Q +3 for 25% of wager and Rockets 1Q ML +175 for 75% of wager. I’ll observe live opportunities later if Rockets are in front.

Celtics/Knicks Total continuing to get steamed down to 221.
 
Last edited:

Brand Name

make hers mark
Staff member
Dope
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
3,780
Behind Studio 42
I'm all over the pointsbet +1050 on St. Francis ML over Fairleigh Dickinson. Only pointsbet. This is also broken as FUCK. Nobody has higher than +175. Arbing with -200 at BetRivers. Essentially a free -200 bet for me at 50%. Holy shit what a day.

I'm positive this gets refunded but if it doesn't, as Monopoly says, bank error in your favor.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
I'm all over the pointsbet +1050 on St. Francis ML over Fairleigh Dickinson. Only pointsbet. This is also broken as FUCK. Nobody has higher than +175. Arbing with -200 at BetRivers. Essentially a free -200 bet for me at 50%. Holy shit what a day.

I'm positive this gets refunded but if it doesn't, as Monopoly says, bank error in your favor.
Are you arbing the spread, or taking a directional view?
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
Staff member
Dope
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
3,780
Behind Studio 42
Are you arbing the spread, or taking a directional view?
Just the ML...in theory, since I'd have wanted the most ensured cash. Well, I couldn't get there in time. Something's up at PB though, they just had something similarly messed up for +2200 on St. Thomas - Minnesota's ML, way way off everyone else.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
Just the ML...in theory, since I'd have wanted the most ensured cash. Well, I couldn't get there in time. Something's up at PB though, they just had something similarly messed up for +2200 on St. Thomas - Minnesota's ML, way way off everyone else.
Sorry. I meant arbing the spread in moneyline (+1050 vs +140 or whatever BetRivers offered.

Risk then is your bet gets cancelled as you fear, otherwise guaranteed profit. That’s why I was curious.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Anyone up for a Division Winner Future?

Pacific Division
Kings +140
Warriors +250
Suns +350
Clippers +650
Lakers +2000

Sacramento holds a 2.5 game lead over Clippers and 3.5 on the Warriors and Suns. They are currently the favorite as they begin an 11 of 14 game stretch on the road. if they hold on…..let’s just say I’ll ELOMOS! #rocco

So where’s the value? One could say with any of the next 3 teams with not much separating them. It appears that the Clippers “may” have gotten past the “I don’t give a shit” stretch of the regular season and are beginning to reel off some wins. That +650 is way off imo as they should be right there in the Warriors/Suns group to win this division. So who wants to be a Clipper fan with me the rest of the way?
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
2,479
Anyone up for a Division Winner Future?

Pacific Division
Kings +140
Warriors +250
Suns +350
Clippers +650
Lakers +2000

Sacramento holds a 2.5 game lead over Clippers and 3.5 on the Warriors and Suns. They are currently the favorite as they begin an 11 of 14 game stretch on the road. if they hold on…..let’s just say I’ll ELOMOS! #rocco

So where’s the value? One could say with any of the next 3 teams with not much separating them. It appears that the Clippers “may” have gotten past the “I don’t give a shit” stretch of the regular season and are beginning to reel off some wins. That +650 is way off imo as they should be right there in the Warriors/Suns group to win this division. So who wants to be a Clipper fan with me the rest of the way?
I'm usually down for some casual Clippers rooting, but don't think I can bet it...

Mine is:

Kings +155
Warriors +240
Suns +350
Clippers +450
Lakers +2000
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
Tonight I’m on:
- Under Mil/Ind @ 239
- Min +3 and then a 1/2 unit Min +140 and under 236
- Under ORL/Mia 219 + Mia -8.5 and then a 1/2 unit parlay of the two
- Under Cle/OKc 222
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
Jeez Mil puts up 85 in the first half.
Given they shut lights out and are up 30, I’m guessing the pace settles + some men’s reversion…. Took some under 264.5 and 262.5

edit - took one more unit under 272.5. Game ended… 272. So lost a little more than 1 unit factoring in the vig, but narrowly avoided a true shellacking to start the night. Hopefully the others do better.
 
Last edited:

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
Cleaned up on Minn game including 2 live bets on under, plus OKC under. Ended up live betting the heat under a few times and heat -1.5, -2.5. Nervous last minute but ended up with a +5 unit night all of which was effectively in game alpha as the pre-game stuff largely netted out.

We’re onto Saturday.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
3pm game today with the Nuggets on their 3rd and final game of the road trip.
Many years ago some books offered “Action Points” which was similar to Options Trading where unlike a traditional spread, the wins and losses would be determined by how many points you beat or didn’t beat the point spread. I’m not in a legal book state so if anyone has access to those let me know.

These days game Unders, while around 60% last I looked, could present even more value using this strategy. I haven’t back checked but so many Unders never come close to the number while the losses have had several flying over by 20+ points. It isn’t so much about the Under as it is the nature of volatility. This seems to be something that can be profitably arbed.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Sacramento begins a stretch of playing 11 of 14 games on the road tonight although it’s not as much of a travel burden as the ASG breaks up this stretch toward the end. Early in the year if you recall I was on them as a big undervalued team after starting 0-4(?) and cashed a bunch on them. Now that they are leading their division over the Warriors, Suns and Clippers they have become overvalued and we are going to take advantage of this over the next month in preparing to fade them quite a bit.

The first part of their trip is the east portion from a strength perspective but surely we’ll find a spot or two when a team is playing 7 roads games in 12 days (keep in mind only 5 cities with the new scheduling of B2B games). I should be keeping up with these numbers but last I checked the winner of the front end also won the back end over 65% of the time as of 3-4 weeks ago. Small sample but interesting as this is the debut season of this format.

I generally like playing ON a middling team on the first game of their trip as they are likely dogs and can be good value. That isn’t the case tonight however as they are -2 on the road against Minnesota who is playing very well.

* So we’ll be making a nominal play on the Wolves tonight +2
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
3pm game today with the Nuggets on their 3rd and final game of the road trip.
Jokic and Murray hitting injury report a little while ago as Game Time Decision. Philly goes from 3.5 to 4.5 with total 232.5 to 230.5 on news. If I can get info before it hits and after I bet I’ll post it and hopefully I get here before the market moves.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
For tonight I’m on:
-under Den/Philly
- under Knicks/nets
- Spurs +5.5
- Utah -7.5
- Atl -1
- Under Atl/LAC 232
- under LAL/Bos 234

Edit: 7:50 pm… anger rising…
Edit 2: spurs keep it tight, take it to OT, then lose by 10… anger rising…
edit 3: celts-Lakers easily 30 points under the O/U but somehow finds itself in OT, which leads to an over.

2-5 tonight absolutely gross. At least the Celts won a great game.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Sacramento begins a stretch of playing 11 of 14 games on the road tonight although it’s not as much of a travel burden as the ASG breaks up this stretch toward the end. Early in the year if you recall I was on them as a big undervalued team after starting 0-4(?) and cashed a bunch on them. Now that they are leading their division over the Warriors, Suns and Clippers they have become overvalued and we are going to take advantage of this over the next month in preparing to fade them quite a bit.

The first part of their trip is the east portion from a strength perspective but surely we’ll find a spot or two when a team is playing 7 roads games in 12 days (keep in mind only 5 cities with the new scheduling of B2B games). I should be keeping up with these numbers but last I checked the winner of the front end also won the back end over 65% of the time as of 3-4 weeks ago. Small sample but interesting as this is the debut season of this format.

I generally like playing ON a middling team on the first game of their trip as they are likely dogs and can be good value. That isn’t the case tonight however as they are -2 on the road against Minnesota who is playing very well.

* So we’ll be making a nominal play on the Wolves tonight +2
This is what I like……when my initial read on a team to start a trip is spot-on it’s a great sign moving forward.

* Wolves Pk and +1 on the Overnight lines that I could get. I’ll be looking to add in the morning at hopefully the same number (I’m not optimistic).

I see these Kings as a streaky bunch as they rely on their pace and scoring to win. These are two areas which are affected being away from home. They don’t bring defense which typically travels on the road so let’s keep grabbing these wins with a full-fledged fade on these Kings.