Silver Dollar - The Official 2022-23 NBA Betting Thread!

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Silver Dollar going full blown Gridiron today!

I’m hoping some a late barrage of public money, which tends to be “Over” money, moves the late games 46.5 up to a key number of 47. If I can get this even if it’s -115 I’m going to click it. I expect both teams to play slow and conservative especially early with a lot of handoffs to see if they can control the interior.

I am waiting to get the key number there but did play, “No Score in first 6 minutes” at -120 already.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Nice tip, I went with Hurst anytime TD at +280 (sorry!)
Very nice! I’ve done well the last two years playing TE’s for first TD once November hits and weather gets involved (especially D.Knox) but I need to begin exploring the ATT market next year.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Got my 47 on the late game Under as expected. Run the ball, short sage passes and get red zone stops. That’s the recipe.

Edit: Rats. Only at one site everyone else still at 46.5.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
For the 2H Cowboys/Niners:

Keep in mind the playoff OT rules differ from that of the regular season. If a team scores a TD on their first possession the game does not end as the other teams receives a possession. Should this remain a low scoring game bringing the in-game total down further from the current 37.5 I’ll be looking at the Over with the added OT equity likely not factored into the number. These teams will find the end zone a couple times here I would imagine especially Dallas who is now in proverbial 4-down territory once they cross midfield.
 

Red Averages

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SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
Could we move the football discussion out of this thread?
I mean, have you been contributing to the NBA? I went back to December and have see zero posts. Which means you are adding nothing, and receiving a free service. Given others actually do contribute and there is a back and forth how about you stop reading if you find it less helpful.

Maybe say thank you for the free betting alpha if you’re ending your lurker status in this thread. I don’t know why people think they are entitled to controlling the dialogue when they don’t participate or even acknowledge they are benefiting from something for free. Maybe send HRB a venmo if you’re so concerned about NFL talk slowing your access to his free NBA advice.
 

Red Averages

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SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
For the 2H Cowboys/Niners:

Keep in mind the playoff OT rules differ from that of the regular season. If a team scores a TD on their first possession the game does not end as the other teams receives a possession. Should this remain a low scoring game bringing the in-game total down further from the current 37.5 I’ll be looking at the Over with the added OT equity likely not factored into the number. These teams will find the end zone a couple times here I would imagine especially Dallas who is now in proverbial 4-down territory once they cross midfield.
What probability are you putting on OT? And if OT, what are you putting on, not one, but two TD given there has been 1 TD through almost 3 quarters?
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
7,842
What probability are you putting on OT? And if OT, what are you putting on, not one, but two TD given there has been 1 TD through almost 3 quarters?
Also, we should expect SF is in extra point mode and Dallas is in two point I’d think potentially reducing the odds of overtime.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
What probability are you putting on OT? And if OT, what are you putting on, not one, but two TD given there has been 1 TD through almost 3 quarters?
Also, we should expect SF is in extra point mode and Dallas is in two point I’d think potentially reducing the odds of overtime.
I expected things to open up some as the defense fatigues but your second post is a great point. I missed the boat on the Over prior to the Cowboys giving the ball back to SF. Still watching it though.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
7,842
Well…. Now we get to see if A - Dallas can get a TD… B - if they go for 2 (as I’d expect and I would do) should they score….
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
I’m disappointed in the overnights and Grizz/Kings total only being 243.5, without checking lineups I’ve have thought we’d see a 246+. Feels weird to say but Over 243.5 may have value.

Only offshore opener I see on Bos/Orl is 5Dimes who has Celtics -7.5 which seems mighty high being shorthanded on the road against a team who matches up pretty well. Something to watch in the morning.
 

Five Cent Head

64th note
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2007
591
Seattle
I mean, have you been contributing to the NBA? I went back to December and have see zero posts. Which means you are adding nothing, and receiving a free service. Given others actually do contribute and there is a back and forth how about you stop reading if you find it less helpful.

Maybe say thank you for the free betting alpha if you’re ending your lurker status in this thread. I don’t know why people think they are entitled to controlling the dialogue when they don’t participate or even acknowledge they are benefiting from something for free. Maybe send HRB a venmo if you’re so concerned about NFL talk slowing your access to his free NBA advice.
No, I haven't contributed to this thread, I'm only trying to "control the dialogue" because it seems be be getting off topic, and I thought that was an appropriate thing for anyone to bring up. One of the things I appreciate about SoSH is the high quality of on-topic discussion. Why not talk about this stuff in Blinded by the Lombardis or Fiskful of Dollars? Also, I'm not sure why my request brought forth this response, including the need to somehow blame me. Why make it personal?

(And for what it's worth, I was rooting for the Bengals and the 49ers, so I'm not in a bad mood because of the games.)
 

zak1013

Member
Gold Supporter
Jul 14, 2005
23
Only offshore opener I see on Bos/Orl is 5Dimes who has Celtics -7.5 which seems mighty high being shorthanded on the road against a team who matches up pretty well. Something to watch in the morning.
DK has C’s -7.5 up as well.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
No, I haven't contributed to this thread, I'm only trying to "control the dialogue" because it seems be be getting off topic, and I thought that was an appropriate thing for anyone to bring up. One of the things I appreciate about SoSH is the high quality of on-topic discussion. Why not talk about this stuff in Blinded by the Lombardis or Fiskful of Dollars? Also, I'm not sure why my request brought forth this response, including the need to somehow blame me. Why make it personal?

(And for what it's worth, I was rooting for the Bengals and the 49ers, so I'm not in a bad mood because of the games.)
Why do you care about the topic if you don’t contribute?

Why does a topic need to be “controlled” by people who aren’t participating?

Do you frequently go up to people on the street having a conversation and tell them to move along?

Or are you eavesdropping the regulars on the train and getting mad that they’ve moved on from a subject you care about?

If you’re so interested in NBA gambling, why not either contribute with insights or express gratitude if you’re benefiting from it? This conversation is very different if an active participant is chiming in.

To be clear, nothing wrong with lurking, I do it all the time. It’s just very strange to have someone that doesn’t participate suddenly be critical of a topic without any context. And by the way, this was a 5 unit win for me, so perhaps it could have been beneficial?
 

Five Cent Head

64th note
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2007
591
Seattle
Why do you care about the topic if you don’t contribute?

Why does a topic need to be “controlled” by people who aren’t participating?

Do you frequently go up to people on the street having a conversation and tell them to move along?

Or are you eavesdropping the regulars on the train and getting mad that they’ve moved on from a subject you care about?

If you’re so interested in NBA gambling, why not either contribute with insights or express gratitude if you’re benefiting from it? This conversation is very different if an active participant is chiming in.

To be clear, nothing wrong with lurking, I do it all the time. It’s just very strange to have someone that doesn’t participate suddenly be critical of a topic without any context. And by the way, this was a 5 unit win for me, so perhaps it could have been beneficial?
I read this thread for two reasons: first, because there are sometimes interesting tidbits about the NBA that don't appear in other threads. I don't gamble on sports, but sometimes there is (for example) injury news here, and that's interesting to know about. When I post about basketball, I do so in other threads in the Port Cellar, but since I have nothing to add about gambling, I skim this one but don't post here. Second, I look at this thread so that all of the Port Cellar threads are marked as read, so I can easily tell when there are new posts in the forum. (It's one click to read the thread, two clicks to "Mark all threads as read" and then confirm. If I knew a way to mark this particular thread as permanently read, I would do that.) I admit I got a little annoyed when I clicked on it and saw what turned out to be an extremely minor spoiler about the San Francisco-Dallas game which I was watching on tape delay. Same with post #553 about the early game. (Emphasis on "little" in "a little annoyed" and on "extremely minor" in "extremely minor spoiler".) I don't know if you're a better person to be thread-police than me, but is that a valid reason? I usually know which threads are safe if I'm watching something delayed, and that seems like a good reason to keep threads on topic. An alternative is to turn this thread into an all-purpose gambling thread, and everyone should know to avoid it if they are interested in any sporting event and don't want spoilers.

I don't know what a 5 unit win means, and it sounds good, so congratulations, but wouldn't it have been the same if it had been discussed in a different thread?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Here’s my position and as always, mods please correct me if I’m wrong.

* This isn’t the Main Board so the hard rules of keeping threads on topic have historically been more lenient in the Port Cellar. Not abused, only lenient. I would not consider a couple posts of NFL content, which were pretty fucking spot-on and profitable, to fall under the abused category.

* Today was a big NFL playoff day and most interested in NBA betting are also interested in NFL betting. Whereas, they may not care so much about betting in the other threads which is why I posted here.

* The instances of going “off topic” are rare and only involve special circumstances which the NFL playoffs can be considered.

* The large majority of people here are looking for insight to make money…….and all I’m trying to do is help make people here some fucking money!

So unless a mod disagrees with the above I’ll make like 3 posts over the 365 days that have to do with the NFL, next weeks Championship Games and the Super Bowl. The other 363 days as well as the two mentioned will be NBA.
 

lovegtm

Member
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Apr 30, 2013
9,655
Toscana via Kyiv
As someone who does, on occasion, post in the Port Cellar, and also as someone who likes to keep things on topic.....

....I found the NFL discussion a light-hearted, fun interlude. 10/10 would read again.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
43,877
As someone who does, on occasion, post in the Port Cellar, and also as someone who likes to keep things on topic.....

....I found the NFL discussion a light-hearted, fun interlude. 10/10 would read again.
Yeah, this was a weird hill to die on. All HRB and Reds are trying to do here is make some internet friends some money. They’ve certainly done so for me. My record without them is like Belichick without Brady!
 
Jun 2, 2016
844
Hanover, PA
Another sincere thank you to the posters in this thread, and again, this is my favorite one on SOSH. I have learned quite a bit and welcomed the NFL discussion yesterday as well. I had CIN +5.5 and the under in the SF/DAL game, so seeing the others on it as well was reassuring. I wouldn't mind treating this as a general gambling thread and would also welcome NHL angles, since even though I am a fan, I can't figure it out (that damn puckline)!
 

zak1013

Member
Gold Supporter
Jul 14, 2005
23
Another sincere thank you to the posters in this thread, and again, this is my favorite one on SOSH. I have learned quite a bit and welcomed the NFL discussion yesterday as well. I had CIN +5.5 and the under in the SF/DAL game, so seeing the others on it as well was reassuring. I wouldn't mind treating this as a general gambling thread and would also welcome NHL angles, since even though I am a fan, I can't figure it out (that damn puckline)!
Agree with this and everyone else!
 

Five Cent Head

64th note
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2007
591
Seattle
If this is going to stay in the Port Cellar, how about spoiler tags if there is going to be discussion of game action in non-NBA games? It makes sense to avoid anything in the Port Cellar if I don't want to know about a current basketball game, but other sports? I often watch football on DVR, and I wasn't expecting to learn about a Bengals touchdown in this thread before seeing it.
 

Five Cent Head

64th note
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2007
591
Seattle
Yeah, this was a weird hill to die on. All HRB and Reds are trying to do here is make some internet friends some money. They’ve certainly done so for me. My record without them is like Belichick without Brady!
This is an odd characterization. Which part counts as dying on a hill? My post "Could we move the football discussion out of this thread?" Or my defense when the response was essentially, "You don't post here so you don't have a right to make that request"?
 

Five Cent Head

64th note
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2007
591
Seattle
I've seen the mantra on SoSh many times, "New threads are good." I still have not seen any explanation for why NFL discussion should be here rather than in a separate NFL gambling thread.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
43,877
This is an odd characterization. Which part counts as dying on a hill? My post "Could we move the football discussion out of this thread?" Or my defense when the response was essentially, "You don't post here so you don't have a right to make that request"?
You’re not letting this go when you easily could move on without much issue. I don’t think my characterization is odd and many here have echoed my statements, to different degrees.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
7,842
If this is going to stay in the Port Cellar, how about spoiler tags if there is going to be discussion of game action in non-NBA games? It makes sense to avoid anything in the Port Cellar if I don't want to know about a current basketball game, but other sports? I often watch football on DVR, and I wasn't expecting to learn about a Bengals touchdown in this thread before seeing it.
Why don't you just avoid this thread? Seems easiest for all.

By the way the "spoiler" in HRB's post that you responded to was after he wrote at the top of his post: "For the 2H Cowboys/Niners: " Somehow you blew through that and spoilered the "low scoring game" yourself.

There are 3 NFL games left this year, what a weird place to put a stake in the ground, particularly given you're mostly "viewing" this thread to mark it unread.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
I’m disappointed in the overnights and Grizz/Kings total only being 243.5, without checking lineups I’ve have thought we’d see a 246+. Feels weird to say but Over 243.5 may have value.

Only offshore opener I see on Bos/Orl is 5Dimes who has Celtics -7.5 which seems mighty high being shorthanded on the road against a team who matches up pretty well. Something to watch in the morning.
Pro: Caught a little of a bad number on the overnight with Over 243.5
Cons: Overnight limits are peanuts and number is now where I had it at 247

Also took Magic overnight +7.5 which I felt could only go one direction based on Tatum/TL as it’s priced with them both in. It’s now +8 and I nibbled a little more but again unless I tell you I’ve got a good one or am stepping in everything I’m doing NBA is relatively small.

Also played small on Spurs +8 and while writing this still amazed at how that 243.5 opener was ever signed off on.
 

Five Cent Head

64th note
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2007
591
Seattle
You’re not letting this go when you easily could move on without much issue. I don’t think my characterization is odd and many here have echoed my statements, to different degrees.
I think my initial question was reasonable. When the response comes, "You don't belong here, don't ask this," I'm apparently supposed to slink away? Got it, thank you for being so welcoming.
 

Five Cent Head

64th note
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2007
591
Seattle
Why don't you just avoid this thread? Seems easiest for all.

By the way the "spoiler" in HRB's post that you responded to was after he wrote at the top of his post: "For the 2H Cowboys/Niners: " Somehow you blew through that and spoilered the "low scoring game" yourself.

There are 3 NFL games left this year, what a weird place to put a stake in the ground, particularly given you're mostly "viewing" this thread to mark it unread.
If you care about doing the most good for the most people, are there possibly people who read the NFL forum but not the Port Cellar and who may have missed this thread? Why not post about NFL gambling in the place where it will reach more people? No need to answer, the lack of response to my repeated questioning lets me know that no one here has a good answer.
 

Red Averages

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SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
7,842
If you care about doing the most good for the most people, are there possibly people who read the NFL forum but not the Port Cellar and who may have missed this thread? Why not post about NFL gambling in the place where it will reach more people? No need to answer, the lack of response to my repeated questioning lets me know that no one here has a good answer.
There is no NFL gambling thread because there are 3 games left. Perhaps we'll do one for the Super Bowl again. Historically there is not enough consistent betting dialogue to venture into Fiskfull of Dollars so any thread there dies out. HRB has for the 2nd or 3rd year in a row generously donated his time and expertise to putting forth content in the NBA forum dedicated to gambling. His generosity has led to more views and more dialogue. This is now the primary place that people go to discuss gambling on SoSh. If you follow, and participate in this thread, you'd know occasionally the topic moves away from basketball. No one has complained until now. The complaint has been clearly swatted down by a majority of posters. In fact the only one complaining is a person that doesn't participate. Most people find this annoying. Some find it offensive.

Maybe it's time to re-evaluate your position or go back to lurking before you do more damage to people's perception of your contributions. Particularly when your contribution to this forum is "teach me about basketball". You'd think someone looking for assistance would be more appreciative about knowledge share, vs destroying their board reputation playing hall monitor for people actively enjoying their time in a discussion.

By the way the whole "No need to answer to my repeated questioning" schtick is not a good move. You don't "win" writing that. You're in the wrong here. Take a knee (sorry, for the NFL spoiler) and move on.
 
Jun 2, 2016
844
Hanover, PA
Pro: Caught a little of a bad number on the overnight with Over 243.5
Cons: Overnight limits are peanuts and number is now where I had it at 247

Also took Magic overnight +7.5 which I felt could only go one direction based on Tatum/TL as it’s priced with them both in. It’s now +8 and I nibbled a little more but again unless I tell you I’ve got a good one or am stepping in everything I’m doing NBA is relatively small.

Also played small on Spurs +8 and while writing this still amazed at how that 243.5 opener was ever signed off on.
Back to topic a bit - is the Spurs bet based on the 1st game of a road trip angle? They are a bad team, and a worse road team (5-15). The over trends seem strong on this one, however.

Also, as another angle on the Celtics game, since they will more than likely be missing Smart and Time Lord, how do you feel about the over here as well?
 

Five Cent Head

64th note
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2007
591
Seattle
There is no NFL gambling thread because there are 3 games left. Perhaps we'll do one for the Super Bowl again. Historically there is not enough consistent betting dialogue to venture into Fiskfull of Dollars so any thread there dies out. HRB has for the 2nd or 3rd year in a row generously donated his time and expertise to putting forth content in the NBA forum dedicated to gambling. His generosity has led to more views and more dialogue. This is now the primary place that people go to discuss gambling on SoSh. If you follow, and participate in this thread, you'd know occasionally the topic moves away from basketball. No one has complained until now. The complaint has been clearly swatted down by a majority of posters. In fact the only one complaining is a person that doesn't participate. Most people find this annoying. Some find it offensive.

Maybe it's time to re-evaluate your position or go back to lurking before you do more damage to people's perception of your contributions. Particularly when your contribution to this forum is "teach me about basketball". You'd think someone looking for assistance would be more appreciative about knowledge share, vs destroying their board reputation playing hall monitor for people actively enjoying their time in a discussion.

By the way the whole "No need to answer to my repeated questioning" schtick is not a good move. You don't "win" writing that. You're in the wrong here. Take a knee (sorry, for the NFL spoiler) and move on.
The first part of this is a good response, and the whole discussion would have been much more pleasant and productive if you had led with that, rather than basing everything on my lack of posting here. I believe that if someone asks that potentially off-topic material be moved elsewhere, that deserves a serious response, and that’s what you’ve provided. Thank you.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
16,387
Santa Monica
The first part of this is a good response, and the whole discussion would have been much more pleasant and productive if you had led with that, rather than basing everything on my lack of posting here. I believe that if someone asks that potentially off-topic material be moved elsewhere, that deserves a serious response, and that’s what you’ve provided. Thank you.
I'd also suggest listening to HRB's March Madness picks he throws on here yearly. You'll clean up in your office pool
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
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Dope
Lifetime Member
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Oct 6, 2010
3,780
Behind Studio 42
Been working on a college basketball model, going to start sharing it here tomorrow. It's worked really really well in a small personal sample thus far, spread crusher, and honestly a few exact scores right (don't bet that shit but I did laugh). Thanks to HRB for genuinely being inspiring to me to do great things with this great sport.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
43,877
Been working on a college basketball model, going to start sharing it here tomorrow. It's worked really really well in a small personal sample thus far, spread crusher, and honestly a few exact scores right (don't bet that shit but I did laugh). Thanks to HRB for genuinely being inspiring to me to do great things with this great sport.
HRB and Brand Name in the same thread? That’s like giving Randy Moss to prime Tom Brady. I’m pumped and jacked!
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Back to topic a bit - is the Spurs bet based on the 1st game of a road trip angle? They are a bad team, and a worse road team (5-15). The over trends seem strong on this one, however.

Also, as another angle on the Celtics game, since they will more than likely be missing Smart and Time Lord, how do you feel about the over here as well?
I often play bad teams as that is often where the value lies in the number. The Spurs have been a train against the spread over the past several weeks, 3-0 in last three road games as well, and remain undervalued imo. The Blazers are going through some internal stuff with Simons and others. I don’t expect them to come to the arena with 100% focus with the lowly Spurs coming to town.

As far as first game of road trip I place greater value on that for a long trip of 5-6 games or more. This is first of 3 so I don’t add much if any value to that…..but it doesn’t hurt.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Been working on a college basketball model, going to start sharing it here tomorrow. It's worked really really well in a small personal sample thus far, spread crusher, and honestly a few exact scores right (don't bet that shit but I did laugh). Thanks to HRB for genuinely being inspiring to me to do great things with this great sport.
*blushes*

Looking forward to this quite a bit!
 

zak1013

Member
Gold Supporter
Jul 14, 2005
23
HRB (or anyone else for that matter!), would be really interested to hear you discuss a bit more how you balance or weight more quantitative modeling/handicapping with some of the more intangible factors you stress (start/end of a road trip, effect of early start times, etc.). Do you look at the schedule to see what jumps out at you as a potential play even before lines come out, and then do some analysis to see if your hunch bears it out? Or some other process? Is the approach different for totals vs. sides?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
HRB (or anyone else for that matter!), would be really interested to hear you discuss a bit more how you balance or weight more quantitative modeling/handicapping with some of the more intangible factors you stress (start/end of a road trip, effect of early start times, etc.). Do you look at the schedule to see what jumps out at you as a potential play even before lines come out, and then do some analysis to see if your hunch bears it out? Or some other process? Is the approach different for totals vs. sides?
Busy tonight but I will get to this in a day or two along with some other stuff.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
14,424
If you care about doing the most good for the most people, are there possibly people who read the NFL forum but not the Port Cellar and who may have missed this thread? Why not post about NFL gambling in the place where it will reach more people? No need to answer, the lack of response to my repeated questioning lets me know that no one here has a good answer.
I have a good answer. But first, I will say that I read this thread fairly regularly and I never bet. It is nevertheless fascinating.Whatever it is in name, in actuality it is the HRB & friends gambling thread and wherever it goes it is glorious.It is interesting to see the basketball modeling and thought process applied to football. If they talk at some point about about betting on rodeo or on skee-ball I don't care.
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
2,480
I have a good answer. But first, I will say that I read this thread fairly regularly and I never bet. It is nevertheless fascinating.Whatever it is in name, in actuality it is the HRB & friends gambling thread and wherever it goes it is glorious.It is interesting to see the basketball modeling and thought process applied to football. If they talk at some point about about betting on rodeo or on skee-ball I don't care.
What if your DVR'd the skee-ball & accidentally found out it was a low-scoring affair prior to having the opportunity to watch said skee-ball match?
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
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Dope
Lifetime Member
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Oct 6, 2010
3,780
Behind Studio 42
Penn State/Rutgers: Average projected final 3.7 points of difference in a Rutgers win. Pointsbet is offering a +6.5 PSU line at -110, which is a hell of a laggard line, having dropped to +6 in most places. Get that if and while you can. Probably going to be hard to get solid CLV on these this late, but I'll offer some more on spoiler-free football eventually.

Let's try out the late-night Big XII matchup, between K-State and Iowa State: I think Kansas State has been unsustainably fortunate to this point but not nearly to the point where I/my model see them as an average of 5-point dogs. Line shopping again makes sense, with -110 for +5.5 at MGM, when most have dropped this to +5.

If there's a game/game you're curious about, happy to run it. Just figured I'd run a few sample games to show you what I can offer. I've not been as happy with what it's been running on over/unders lately but given I've been testing it on model-favorite (and personal favorite, but no bias) Alabama a lot, well, the Darius Miles story might be playing a role there.

My dude ValueAddBasketball is sadly unable to get data this season, might not be able to for the future. Which sucks because he was perfect for working in injury adjustments for a top-down approach. Doesn't change too much for you reading this but it really helps quantify individuals, which is otherwise hard to do given the massive nature of the sports, and arguably why it's the holy grail.

So many teams, so many obscure conferences, someone is going to be overlooked. I usually don't like playing the big marquee stuff like the above, all else equal, but it's a good way to sell attention to someone immediately. Which it isn't equal though, hence why limits are typically lower on those games.

Of course, full disclosure, I'll be thrilled if we win a little over half the time, in that 55-60ish percent range, that's the hit rate of winning, successful bettors. Use Kelly Criterion to not overspend. I wish I had the tips and syndicate connects HRB does. I've got those for trivia but that's a different time, a different place.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
HRB (or anyone else for that matter!), would be really interested to hear you discuss a bit more how you balance or weight more quantitative modeling/handicapping with some of the more intangible factors you stress (start/end of a road trip, effect of early start times, etc.). Do you look at the schedule to see what jumps out at you as a potential play even before lines come out, and then do some analysis to see if your hunch bears it out? Or some other process? Is the approach different for totals vs. sides?
Ok it’s 3:30am so I’ll probably ramble and if something doesn’t make sense feel free to ask questions and I’ll explain in a more clean manner. There will be terms many of you won’t know which I’ll try to explain (if I remember….bc it’s 3:30am)

My process betting sports was derived similarly to how I learned how to become a winning poker player. First I was fascinated by it, then I became obsessed with learning more which I did when I observed the best players, when I got to know them I picked their brain, and I took pieces from each that I could apply and make my own. I don’t run simulations, I don’t use algorithms, nor do I code. Call me “old school” or whatever but I know what works for me and my technological limitations.

Each individual game is its own logic problem designed for you to solve. Some bettors are one-trick ponies in either using a model they created, an algorithm or simply stare at the screen all morning using the top-down approach in taking advantage of books who are slow to adjust lines once the market moves. Others place values on individual players and look to get ahead of the number by watching injury reports. Whatever the method, the goal is to beat the market to the punch and gain CLV (closing line value). Now not all CLV is created equal and there are times when I don’t want it at all and sometimes even want the other side…..best example (and probably only actually) is in the NBA when a star player is out for one game or a team is ridiculously short handed due to load management, suspensions, etc on one specific night. I’ve spoke of this for years as “The Ewing Effect” even though I don’t think this was exactly what Simmons had in mind when coining that phrase. So aside from that anomaly…..you want to be beating the closing line.

I will use top-down primarily for college football on Monday mornings or college basketball from 9-11am. I’ll have my odds screen up, I currently use SpankOdds but there are others, and pay attention to the sharpest books but primarily Circa as they accept sharp high volume action and are quickest to adjust. I’ll give you a real-life example from Monday college hoops. Detroit opened Sunday afternoon on the overnight line as a 6-pt favorite over Oakland. It was quickly bet down to 5.5 and later than night to 5. So right away this caught my eye as a potential mover in the morning once limits increase. Books must be aware of potential “head fakes” made by groups as well as it doesn’t take much money to move the number the night before. It is common for groups to do this if say they want to play Detroit but wish to get a better number than 6. They “could” play Oakland overnight then hammer Detroit in the morning at the better number once limits increase.

Anyway (I told you I’d ramble), I’m watching the screen and around 8:20am to my best recollection, the game begins lighting up across the board. It goes from 5 to 4.5 at a bunch of places and down to 4 at some of the sharp books. It is fairly clear (I say fairly bc you can never be certain shenanigans aren’t going on) that this is a sharp group play hitting with the copycat books moving the lines as well. I have several of my sites up and immediately get to work and hit Oakland +5 on two of them. The game closed Detroit -3.5 so I gained 1.5 pts of CLV and Oakland was up double digits at the half and won my 12 I believe. This approach in todays day and age will either get you limited with legal books or shut off from the local Joe at the corner. As I live in FL where sports betting is not yet legal (DeSantis screwed the pooch bigly on this! I’ll share if there is interest) the majority of my play is with local bookies. Remind me to discuss this later and I’ll share some of my strategies in keeping accounts alive.

I learned discipline and how to use your curiousity in developing and testing angles from Rick Janov, a former trial attorney turned sports bettor. He’s probably mid-70’s now but still sharp as a tack. He had his best season ever Betting football this year at age 70-something! The person who I have learned the most from is someone who has long been considered the greatest college basketball handicapper by many and has become a good friend over the years in Alan Dvorkis who has gone by Alan Boston since forever. He’s an Ivy League grad who is as insane, brash and maniacal as he is caring and compassionate. Arguably the most unique individual I have ever known in my lifetime. I can talk forever about this guy.

Anyway…ramble ramble….getting back to the original question on the NBA. I’ve used Rick’s tool of probing for different angles to find some beauties such as the early afternoon Unders, the first game focus of a long road trip (particularly if it’s a mediocre team), and of course the regular season “Ewing Effect.” Some of these I’m multiple days ahead of but I begin capping the morning before the day of the game to be best prepared when the overnight lines come out….7 days a freakin week. Aside from these angles I have a running power rating that I review after each team has played 2 games along with home court advantage. This is tricky sometimes with so many players out of the lineup here and there…..I have to remain sharp in these ratings and factor in the lineups during those games. I will stress that these ratings are only a guide to begin my cap as I place greater weight on intangible factors than probably anyone. Perfect example of how injuries factor in my rating is Orlando who began 5-20 but I still had them rated middle of the pack when fully healthy as I’ve been discussing since the preseason. If you recall the Magic were just getting everyone back when they beat the Celtics B2B in December.

I’ll close with this. I know many successful cappers who place individual values on a player for injury purposes which adjusts their number. I place much less value on NBA injuries from a pure handicap perspective when it is simply one player and not a star. I do however take star power into greater account when it comes to totals as certain players affect the pace of the game to where it is a significant difference. Guys like LeBron, Chris Paul, Embiid, etc.

- Armenian Italian Mamba Out!
 
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Jim Ed Rice in HOF

Red-headed Skrub child
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
6,736
Seacoast NH
HRB, this was rambling in the best sense of the word, thanks! I'm fascinated by what the life and times of what being a professional sports gambler entail, many of them I wouldn't ask because they delve too deeply into personal information (I'm sure the weekend warriors among us would be horrified at the amounts you're putting on the line to make this a living for example). Any time you describe the behind the scenes details just know that you've got people enjoying the info.