Silver Dollar - The Official 2022-23 NBA Betting Thread!

Red Averages

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I took the under at 226 via my buddy (who asked me if anything stuck out since it’s on TV).

edit - at 224.5 now.
edit 2 - hopefully some good “steak” on the menu tonight :)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Something weird going on in Celtics/Nets with group coming in on Brooklyn. It may be a C’s injury not yet public unsure at this time but likely as the Under was also hit. Pure guess on the movement but this is about what Jaylen’s value would be to the line and total.
There’s some information for someone special in the Patriots thread to bitch about. A group buying on info 3 hours before Jaylen being announced out. They got Nets at +3 and +2 was still out there for hours if you were interested. It is now PK most places.

I mentioned this in the past here. Limits increase 8-9am est and the sharp moves hit the market from 8-11am the latest. Any big moves or group buys after that time are always on injury/availability information ahead of it being public. Much like the Dolphins number indicating who is expected to be QB in this case the move and amount of move pointed toward Jaylen. Anyone else aside from Tatum would be inconsequential to the number creating information buy (.5 pt?) and if it was JT the buy at +3 would surely continue at +2, +1 and likely Pk. The total move from 228 to 226 also was an indicator.
 

BigSoxFan

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DK running a Tatum/Embiid/Luka all to score 25 for +100. I’m taking it. Tatum seems like a lock with Brown out. Embiid and Luka seem pretty likely barring something weird happening. We’ll see.
 

BigSoxFan

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DK running a Tatum/Embiid/Luka all to score 25 for +100. I’m taking it. Tatum seems like a lock with Brown out. Embiid and Luka seem pretty likely barring something weird happening. We’ll see.
Nailed it…dammit, Tatum
 

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One of my favorite threads on SOSH and it has gone quiet. Friendly reminder that both NBA early games went under this weekend. Hope you guys were on those too. Looking forward to the returns of @HomeRunBaker and @Red Averages.
Yup, I was on the first two but I skipped the GS/Phi game which looks to have been a good choice. That 40 point 4th quarter was a pleasant surprise as I’d given up hope and just checked it a couple minutes ago.

EDIT - there are a couple early ones tomorrow for MLK day too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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One of my favorite threads on SOSH and it has gone quiet. Friendly reminder that both NBA early games went under this weekend. Hope you guys were on those too. Looking forward to the returns of @HomeRunBaker and @Red Averages.
I posted earlier why I slow down NBA this type of year and today is yet another example. No Ben Simmons on any injury report but I received an alert a few hours ago that he’d be out…..again, never hit wire. Without Durant and Simmons length I played Thunder Over 113 points on their team total (and 20% on Ovee 55 1H). Without that alert, which I don’t always receive, I’d have been flying blind. Hang around for the playoffs those are always real fun and very profitable.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Both Harden and Lillard played tonight, neither was confirmed until minites before tip. Lillard wasn’t expected to play. So tough right now it’s like flipping a coin on availability in so many of these games.
 

zak1013

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DK offering three 30% live bet profit boosts for the NBA games today. Seems like a good opportunity to follow some of these afternoon games and grab a 2H under if the 1H scoring comes out particularly hot.
 

benhogan

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Celtics with 1pm early start today

then multiple days off for Golden State (Celtics have lost their last 7 games after multiple days off)

Is today a "trap" game, with Boston looking forward to avenging GSW loss last month?

or is the under in play with the early start?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Celtics with 1pm early start today

then multiple days off for Golden State (Celtics have lost their last 7 games after multiple days off)

Is today a "trap" game, with Boston looking forward to avenging GSW loss last month?

or is the under in play with the early start?
If you like both angles and unsure which to take you have Celtics TT Under 120 sitting there. This is a pretty terrible matchup for Charlotte but as you say how motivated will the Celtics be after just coasting past them on the same floor 48 hours ago? Celtics probably win something like 121-109 in a low intensity game. No bet here for me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Don’t know if it’s announced yet but Giannis out for Bucks the number was Pacers +9.5

Edit: Nm game is off everywhere now. Window was 90 sec.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Don’t know if it’s announced yet but Giannis out for Bucks the number was Pacers +9.5

Edit: Nm game is off everywhere now. Window was 90 sec.
Back up at 6.5 wouldn’t touch if you didn’t get the 9.5

Degen and looking for action? Trend with Hoyas this year has been to cover 1H and get hammered in 2H. Down 4 at Villanova (covered) and Nova -7 in 2H is good here.

Edit: This is why I don’t make small degen bets when I’m bored in front of the tv (except today). Watching Nova repeatedly take long fallaway 2’s off iso as the other 4 are parked behind the arc made me remember that Jay Wright no longer coaches this team. Pain.
 
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benhogan

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If you like both angles and unsure which to take you have Celtics TT Under 120 sitting there. This is a pretty terrible matchup for Charlotte but as you say how motivated will the Celtics be after just coasting past them on the same floor 48 hours ago? Celtics probably win something like 121-109 in a low intensity game. No bet here for me.
Thank you for that. Didn't do anything
 

benhogan

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If you like both angles and unsure which to take you have Celtics TT Under 120 sitting there. This is a pretty terrible matchup for Charlotte but as you say how motivated will the Celtics be after just coasting past them on the same floor 48 hours ago? Celtics probably win something like 121-109 in a low intensity game. No bet here for me.
you nailed the 12pt spread
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played a little on Houston +5.5 for couple reasons. Everything is relatively little NBA until playoffs unless I get specific injury info not yet released.

- Off emotional game last night the Lakers, and by Lakers I mean LeBron & Russ, are primed to play down to a lesser opponent who they know are without a couple key pieces. I expect this to be a single possession game late.

- Greater than zero chance LeBron sits and we get a great number
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got one good one that isn’t lineup dependent.

* Under 231.5 Nets/Spurs

I’ve spoken to how the Nets totals have been outrageously high all season and even though they hit for 102 and 98 in their two games without Duran the number is still in the 230’s. I’m guessing it’s recency bias as the Spurs have given up 120+ in their last 5 games……but they were all against Top-5 scoring teams in Boston, Memphis (2), Golden St and Sacramento. If there is good scoring in the 1H I’d be looking for some 2H Under as I downgrade the Nets halfcoirt offense significantly without Durant and the 2H is where these halfcourt sets will take place. Like this one a lot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Anyone jump on this? It’s been hammered down to 227.5

Edit: Opened overnight at 235 quickly bet down to 232 before full markets opened. Moved to 229 then sat until Kyrie ruled OUT when the most recent 1.5 move came.
 
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JM3

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Anyone jump on this? It’s been hammered down to 227.5

Edit: Opened overnight at 235 quickly bet down to 232 before full markets opened. Moved to 229 then sat until Kyrie ruled OUT when the most recent 1.5 move came.
Was in at u231.5 -105
 

HomeRunBaker

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Don’t get much easier than that. Actually found a 1H of 120.5 at one site lol. Funny that after giving speech about not much happening right now a spot like this arises.
 

Red Averages

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The (awesome) Celtics/Warriors game helps illustrate how overpriced the O/Us are as we get deeper into the season and teams put in some actual effort on defense. The under hit despite OT.

I suspect the first move is playing 2nd half and 4th quarter unders on these “playoff like” games. As we get into late Feb/early March look to find these playoff teams that can pick up the intensity in game when it counts.

for now these 240 point O/U are hard to play consistently because we’re still in mid season mode.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The (awesome) Celtics/Warriors game helps illustrate how overpriced the O/Us are as we get deeper into the season and teams put in some actual effort on defense. The under hit despite OT.

I suspect the first move is playing 2nd half and 4th quarter unders on these “playoff like” games. As we get into late Feb/early March look to find these playoff teams that can pick up the intensity in game when it counts.

for now these 240 point O/U are hard to play consistently because we’re still in mid season mode.
I thought I finished posting this last night before the Lakers game when I was at a poker table but just now realize that I didn’t.

I don’t know if I’m playing it but with LeBron apparently playing tonight that Total being 245 is outrageously ridiculously stupefying! The pace with which he’l

That was what I began to post and was going to note that the total only went from 247 to 245 despite the pace of the name dropping (relatively) significantly with LeBron in the lineup. With these huge totals you are getting even better in-game numbers to play some regression when games get off to roaring starts. This is why watching live is so crucial as you can see when both teams are downshifting and really take advantage of it.
 

benhogan

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I thought I finished posting this last night before the Lakers game when I was at a poker table but just now realize that I didn’t.

I don’t know if I’m playing it but with LeBron apparently playing tonight that Total being 245 is outrageously ridiculously stupefying! The pace with which he’l

That was what I began to post and was going to note that the total only went from 247 to 245 despite the pace of the name dropping (relatively) significantly with LeBron in the lineup. With these huge totals you are getting even better in-game numbers to play some regression when games get off to roaring starts. This is why watching live is so crucial as you can see when both teams are downshifting and really take advantage of it.
I'm here for the in-game NBA bets, while at the poker table, with ice cubes melting in a single malt at midnight.

Why can't we get reality shows on Bravo with that content?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Tonight’s injury/TM news:

LeBron IN
Kyrie and all non-Durant Nets IN

This is interesting to me. Kyrie is the only reason the Nets put up points in the 2H last night, and had struggled to even hit 100 w/o KD, and he’s historically been worse on back end of B2B his entire career. Tonight is also at altitude in Utah so that can’t help. I like that Brooklyn went from 7.5 to 5.5 on this news along with word of a group on the Nets on this news. To me, this shows simpleton thinking of lineup numbers only and not intangibles…..or maybe I’m the idiot. We’ll see as I took a little Utah -5.5 and I lean to the Under. There is a path to Jazz dropping 130+ imo which is what’s preventing me from dropping hammer on the Under.

LeBron is playing in another 245 total game. I lean Under on principle and lean Lakers. Doubt I do anything pregame but anything will be very small as it was with Utah.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Also, everyone OUT for Warriors and Mitchell also OUT for Cleveland. I’d hate for this to be the one game I bought tickets for if I lived in Ohio.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Non-NBA but Bengals getting 6 to me is as confusing as the Eagles not being 10+ yesterday. Is the only angle being the Bengals OL? Burrows gets the ball out quicker than anyone not named Brady and has receivers who gain quick separation. Oh and Skylar Thompson ripped up their secondary last week with Tyreek playing on one leg. Gimme some Cats here +6 and Over 21.5 their Team Total. Throw in a sprinkle on Hayden Hurst first TD scorer at +1500 as he’ll be a target if they gave the ball inside the 10-15.
 

Toe Nash

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3.33 ANY/A is not ripping up the secondary, but I agree that concerns about the Bengals OL are overblown and I think the Bills win a close one.
 

HomeRunBaker

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3.33 ANY/A is not ripping up the secondary, but I agree that concerns about the Bengals OL are overblown and I think the Bills win a close one.
That stat is extremely misleading on its own. Miami dropped 3 wide open passes downfield, two by Waddle I believe, that aren’t reflected in that 3.3 and the Bills haven’t been the same pressuring the QB since losing Miller.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Where are you seeing 6? I’ve got 5.5 at the offshore books.
It touched up to 6 last night into the morning. 5.5 everywhere now. My exact number this morning was +6 (-115).

Edit: 6’s popping here and there.
 
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Toe Nash

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That stat is extremely misleading on its own. Miami dropped 3 wide open passes downfield, two by Waddle I believe, that aren’t reflected in that 3.3 and the Bills haven’t been the same pressuring the QB since losing Miller.
Well, it was just one stat that I thought painted a picture of his performance. He was 18-45 with 2 INT if you prefer that. They sacked Thompson 4 times and the game was only close because Allen turned the ball over and they got big returns. Miami was able to keep it close but it wasn't the Buffalo defense's fault IMO.

Cincy is of course much better than Miami with their 3rd string QB so I'll drop it but Buffalo is very good in all phases and I am not a slam dunk on CIN covering.
 

Red Averages

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Arguably no OL for Cinci means less running, more passing, which calls for a faster pace and more points. I think I favor (team total or game) overs over the spread in this one.
Buf D is suspect and Buf O can put up a lot of points.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Well, it was just one stat that I thought painted a picture of his performance. He was 18-45 with 2 INT if you prefer that. They sacked Thompson 4 times and the game was only close because Allen turned the ball over and they got big returns. Miami was able to keep it close but it wasn't the Buffalo defense's fault IMO.

Cincy is of course much better than Miami with their 3rd string QB so I'll drop it but Buffalo is very good in all phases and I am not a slam dunk on CIN covering.
Yeah I probably shouldn’t have used that term to describe Skylar’s performance but he had receivers open downfield most of the game and either missed them, didn’t get the ball out or they dropped it. The Bills defense will have to improve dramatically off that performance against Burrow to advance imo as the Bengals were the better team 4 weeks ago before the game was called and the Bills are down another DB since then. We shall see.