Should the Yankees trade Gardner?

[FanSinceBoggs]

Jon Abbey: sorry if you do not want a separate thread for this. . . .
 
Gardner is such a good player, however (offensively and defensively), and thus maybe deserves his own thread. 
 
According to reports:

After inking outfielder Carlos Beltran last night, the Yankees have received "significant interest" in Brett Gardner, reports Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (via Twitter). The club is willing to deal Gardner, says McCullough, though it is not actively shopping him.
 
Gardner, 30, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4MM in his final go through arbitration before reaching the open market next year. The capable center fielder posted a .273/.344/.416 line in 609 plate appearances last year, good for 4.2 rWAR. Though his value is limited by the lack of significant team control, his low salary and ability to play any outfield position make him an intriguing trade target.
 
Meanwhile, for the Yanks, dealing Gardner is one possible way for the club to address other needs while using internal options in hs place. Though he played center last year in the Bronx, Jacoby Ellslbury figures to occupy that role going forward. The team could keep Alfonso Soriano in an outfield role, rather than shifting him to DH, if it were to make a deal. New York also still has Ichiro Suzuki under contract for next season, and the recently-signed Kelly Johnson spent a good deal of time in the outfield last year for Tampa.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/yankees-receiving-significant-interest-in-brett-gardner.html
 
 

 
 
Oddly enough, the Red Sox could use Gardner and could put an attractive package together containing a starting pitcher and a prospect.  Of course, I do not expect this to happen.
 
Should the Yankees keep both Gardner and Ellsbury?  They are similar players  Trading Gardner might make sense for the Yankees if they could obtain a really good infielder or starting pitcher.  The fact that Gardner is one year away from free agency will hurt his trade value, I suppose.
 
I also wonder how much money Gardner will demand in free agency next year?  Will he ask for a 100 million contract?  Some teams will probably undervalue him.  If Ellsbury got 153 million in free agency shouldn't Gardner get around 100 million or is that way off?

 

[derekson]

I don't see Gardner as having so much trade value with 1 year of control left that the Yankees would get a huge return. Meanwhile he's their best option to take the lion's share of left field playing time, so any trade would mean a downgrade on the field before accounting for the return. With the spacious LF at Yankee Stadium III and Gardner's history as a superb defender in LF, I don't see Gardner as superfluous even with Ellsbury on board. If Gardner had Ellsbury's history of almost exclusively playing CF in the past half decade then I'd see a trade making sense, but Gardner's best seasons were as a nearly full-time left fielder. Putting him in that position again at least lets the Yankees have a strong defensive OF in spite of guys like Soriano or an aging Beltran manning RF.

 

[jon abbey]

New thread is fine, thanks...
 
They probably should move him if they can get a #4 quality starting pitcher. I can't believe they're going to pay up to keep him next year, and the dropoff from Gardner to Ichiro probably isn't too massive. He is their only backup CF behind Ellsbury, though, and we all know the Turncoat Dreamboat can't exactly be counted out to play 162, so dunno. 

 

[Sprowl]

I don't see Gardner as having so much trade value with 1 year of control left that the Yankees would get a huge return. Meanwhile he's their best option to take the lion's share of left field playing time, so any trade would mean a downgrade on the field before accounting for the return. With the spacious LF at Yankee Stadium III and Gardner's history as a superb defender in LF, I don't see Gardner as superfluous even with Ellsbury on board. If Gardner had Ellsbury's history of almost exclusively playing CF in the past half decade then I'd see a trade making sense, but Gardner's best seasons were as a nearly full-time left fielder. Putting him in that position again at least lets the Yankees have a strong defensive OF in spite of guys like Soriano or an aging Beltran manning RF.

 
A good Yankee leftfielder is as important as a good Fenway rightfielder. As outfielders with exceptional range, Gardner and Victorino can be real difference makers.

 

[InsideTheParker]

 
A good Yankee leftfielder is as important as a good Fenway rightfielder. As outfielders with exceptional range, Gardner and Victorino can be real difference makers.

I agree. Also, if the Ys trade Gardner, my husband will be very sad, as he's one of his fave Yankees. Gardner and the "Turncoat Dreamboat" could be a very effective 9-1 combo on the basepaths.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
A good Yankee leftfielder is as important as a good Fenway rightfielder. As outfielders with exceptional range, Gardner and Victorino can be real difference makers.

 
Agreed as well.  Between the insurance in CF for Ells, and covering LF in Yankee stadium, I wouldn't move Gardner if I were the Yankees.  He still has a ton of value to them, and think the upgrade between what he offers and what they have behind him is pretty large.
 
If some team is just desperate for him, and will pay a huge price for 1 year of Gardner, the yankees should be listening of course.  But I think he's pretty important to them in 2014.  I'd be thrilled if the Yanks traded him, even if they got a solid back end starter in return.

 

[snowmanny]

Yeah I'd put him in left, move Soriano to DH
(along with Jeter part-time), find someone to take Ichiro and shoot Vernon Wells.

I hope they trade him though.

 

[mauidano]

I highly doubt Gardner is going anywhere.  As mentioned above, insurance.  Like where you can't have enough good arms in the bullpen, you can't have enough speedy outfielders.  Could the MFY's try and take a page out of the Red Sox playbook and start thinking about more stolen bases instead of power alone?

 

[dylanmarsh]

If the M's are really trying to draw more fans and start a renaissance, get Ichiro back. That solves two problems for two clubs. Blake Beavan in a straight up deal?

 

[Brickowski]

Why does everyone assume Ellsbury will be leading off?  I would consider the following batting order: Gardner, Jeter, Ellsbury, Teixiera, Beltran, Soriano, McCann, Nunez, Johnson.  Obviously you could rejigger spots 4-7 in the order depending on pitching matchups, who is hot etc.
 
Gardner wears out pitchers.  He fouls off a lot of pitches and isn't afraid to hit with 2 strikes.  He also hits lefties just about as well as righties.  So I like him better at the top of the order, not the bottom.

 

[terrynever]

Gardner will be gone by this time next week. Sweeney Murdy of FAN, who is a bit of a homer, already has started a rumor linking Gardner and Reds pitcher Homer Bailey. Both on final year of contract. Yanks might need to throw in something else. Anyway, that's just the first of rumors heading into Winter Meetings.

 

[terrynever]

I agree. Also, if the Ys trade Gardner, my husband will be very sad, as he's one of his fave Yankees. Gardner and the "Turncoat Dreamboat" could be a very effective 9-1 combo on the basepaths.

Tell your husband the Yankees' strategy this winter is to trade every homegrown player on the roster, fire the player development staff, do no scouting prior to the draft, and then flip a coin whenever they have a selection to make in the 2014 draft. This might be an improvement on recent efforts.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Gardner will be gone by this time next week. Sweeney Murdy of FAN, who is a bit of a homer, already has started a rumor linking Gardner and Reds pitcher Homer Bailey. Both on final year of contract. Yanks might need to throw in something else. Anyway, that's just the first of rumors heading into Winter Meetings.

 
Home Bailey, Oh My, meaningful Red Sox -Yankee games ahead if that happens.
 
Actually, the Red Sox are a good fit here if that falls through. They might deal Peavy for Gardner, and if the Yankees throw in a C prospect might throw in a bullpen arm as well.  Not that it will happen. 

 

[NYCSox]

Gardner will be gone by this time next week. Sweeney Murdy of FAN, who is a bit of a homer, already has started a rumor linking Gardner and Reds pitcher Homer Bailey. Both on final year of contract. Yanks might need to throw in something else. Anyway, that's just the first of rumors heading into Winter Meetings.

 
Two monster understatements in the same post. Well done.

 

[terrynever]

Two monster understatements in the same post. Well done.

Thanks. Recent developments forcing me to rely on droll humor, a relative of troll humor.

 

[Brickowski]

Why would the Reds do that?  I suppose Gardner makes sense as a Choo replacement, byt if Arroyo signs elsewhere, that's 400 innings they would have to replace.  It would probably take Gary Sanchez to make that deal work, if at all.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Why would the Reds do that?  I suppose Gardner makes sense as a Choo replacement, byt if Arroyo signs elsewhere, that's 400 innings they would have to replace.  It would probably take Gary Sanchez to make that deal work, if at all.

 
I think Gardner for Bailey is getting close to a fair trade, but, yeah, the Yankees would need to include more (the SP is always the most valuable commodity).  If the Reds did something like that, they would need to sign an SP through free agency.
 
I know it won't happen, but I was thinking Peavy and Brentz for Gardner, which probably isn't good enough.  Thus maybe Peavy and Betts would get it done if the deal wasn't between the Yankees and Red Sox.  I could also see the Yankees coveting Britton.

 

[jon abbey]

The kicker to all of this is going to be when he goes somewhere else this year or next for more money than NY will give him and then holds his own against Ellsbury for a season or two. Current Yankee management! WHOO!

 

[Brickowski]

The Reds would be trading a pitcher they might not be able to resign for an outfielder they may not be able to resign. If they wanted a one year outfield replacement, Ichiro would make a lot more sense for them, and they could probably get him for a prospect.

I really like Gardner, but trading him for a 27 year old starter who gives you 200 innings and nearly a strikeout an inning would be too good to pass up giving the present state of the Yankee pitching staff.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Should they trade him?  No
 
Will they trade him?  Probably if you can get something to fill one of the many voids they now have with their surplus of OFers.  Trading him raises the NYY OF median age to what - 36?  With only one year left before he'll be in line for a payday, I don't know how many people will be offering a whole lot - especially as they know they've got the Yankees in a position of need.
 
Needless to say, all of this makes me happy.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Should they trade him?  No
 
Will they trade him?  Probably if you can get something to fill one of the many voids they now have with their surplus of OFers.  Trading him raises the NYY OF median age to what - 36?  With only one year left before he'll be in line for a payday, I don't know how many people will be offering a whole lot - especially as they know they've got the Yankees in a position of need.
 
Needless to say, all of this makes me happy.

All the youth is in the infield. 

 

[Hoplite]

I agree with the importance of having a strong defensive outfielder in left field of Yankee Stadium. I think the Yankees will DFA Wells, since the Angels are paying most of his salary and his salary doesn't count against the luxury tax. That would open the DH spot for Soriano and left field for Gardner. Beltran will probably be in right field (which will be a disaster as usual) and Ichiro will be on the bench. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

If they're only worried about being under for 2014, paying Gardner won't be a problem. They should keep him unless they get a good offer.

 

[Sampo Gida]

If they're only worried about being under for 2014, paying Gardner won't be a problem. They should keep him unless they get a good offer.

 
They can always sign Gardner as a FA after 2014.  Their immediate need is a SP'er.  There are not many attractive options left as FA, and Tanaka may not be posted.  Gardner probably gives them the best chance of landing a SP'er via trade.   Ichiro is a poor mans Gardner at this stage of his career, but has little trade value.  I think the Yankees would prefer to keep Gardner, but he is a bit of a luxury at this point.

 

[Wingack]

If they're only worried about being under for 2014, paying Gardner won't be a problem. They should keep him unless they get a good offer.

Bailey would be a good offer and then i would try to extend him.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Bailey would be a good offer and then i would try to extend him.

I agree.

 

[Hoplite]

I don't think trading Homer Bailey would make sense for a team like the Reds who are looking to add rotation depth. Jocketty has said that Chapman will remain in the bullpen.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I'm not sure who this is but they make a trade suggestion: Gardner to the Reds for Brandon Philips:
http://www.faketeams.com/2013/12/7/5185926/mlb-trade-rumors-brett-gardner-for-brandon-phillips
 
And Olney states that the Yankees are looking to trade for infield help.
 
Lineup with Phillips (I think the Yankees should make Jeter their full time DH):
Ellsbury CF
Jeter DH
Beltran RF
Teix 1b
Phillips 2b
McCann C
Soriano LF
Johnson 3b
Ryan SS

 

[MakMan44]

I don't think trading Homer Bailey would make sense for a team like the Reds who are looking to add rotation depth. Jocketty has said that Chapman will remain in the bullpen.

Well if they want make an upgrade, like Ervin Santana, flipping Bailey for Gardner lets them keep Hamilton in AAA next season for more seasoning.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I also wonder how much money Gardner will demand in free agency next year?  Will he ask for a 100 million contract?  Some teams will probably undervalue him.  If Ellsbury got 153 million in free agency shouldn't Gardner get around 100 million or is that way off?

There are two problems with this line of thinking.  The first is assuming a linear relationship between production and pay.  As you get into elite levels of production, the pay scale goes up more quickly.  The second problem is assuming that what the Yankees paid Ellsbury is market value.  It's not.  It's an overpay because they are the Yankees and they can afford to do it.
 
I think that with another solid season he could be in line for something like 4 or 5 years at 12-15 million AAV depending on how the market plays out.  But I'd be shocked if he commanded 100 million.  Then again, my predictions for the Sox free agents this year have been laughably bad, so what do I know?

 

[Rough Carrigan]

I'm not sure who this is but they make a trade suggestion: Gardner to the Reds for Brandon Philips:
http://www.faketeams.com/2013/12/7/5185926/mlb-trade-rumors-brett-gardner-for-brandon-phillips
 
And Olney states that the Yankees are looking to trade for infield help.
 
Lineup with Phillips (I think the Yankees should make Jeter their full time DH):
Ellsbury CF
Jeter DH
Beltran RF
Teix 1b
Phillips 2b
McCann C
Soriano LF
Johnson 3b
Ryan SS

Reds GM Walt Jockety is *seriously* pissed off that the yankees leaked mention of discussions about their trading for Phillips to help out their negotiations with Cano.  Obviously it didn't work anyway.  But there will be some bad feelings to get past.  As to Phillips batting in the middle of the yankee lineup, I think that'd be crazy.  Phillips is not a middle of the order hitter.  Never has been.  He got 103 rbi because he was in the greatest position in all of MLB batting behind Choo and Votto who were both getting on base at better than .400 clips.  It was a bit like Jim Rice's superficially impressive early 80's seasons batting behind Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans.

 

[Sampo Gida]

There are two problems with this line of thinking.  The first is assuming a linear relationship between production and pay.  As you get into elite levels of production, the pay scale goes up more quickly.  The second problem is assuming that what the Yankees paid Ellsbury is market value.  It's not.  It's an overpay because they are the Yankees and they can afford to do it.
 
I think that with another solid season he could be in line for something like 4 or 5 years at 12-15 million AAV depending on how the market plays out.  But I'd be shocked if he commanded 100 million.  Then again, my predictions for the Sox free agents this year have been laughably bad, so what do I know?

 
With the Yankees for the first time in recent memory seeking to be under the LT Threshold and allowing a better player to leave in an attempt to be fiscally responsible,  I am not sure this "Yankees always overpay" hypothesis holds true anymore.  They got Beltran for less than KC offered and signed McCann to what many consider to be market value. 
 
As for Gardner, his value is limited a bit relative to Ellsbury because he is nowhere near the base stealer Ellsbury is now, but his 2013 offensive numbers aside from SB were remarkably similar to Ellsbury's.  However, the defensive metrics did not think as much of Gardner in CF last year, for whatever that's worth.
So I agree with your estimate on his value.
 
If they can't land a solid SP'er for him and could trade Soriano they should probably keep him and try and extend him.  But I think they can get something valuable in return and Soriano is unlikely to waive his NTC.   It's not like they can't try and sign him as a FA next year.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

Either they really are planning on keeping him, or they want more than Brandon Phillips. I'm a bit surprised they wouldn't take this trade.
 
 
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 7m
#yankees turned down a brandon phillips for brett gardner offer. #reds

 

[rembrat]

I would have done that with the Reds picking up some money, sure.

 

[nattysez]

$7.2mm difference between their salaries helps explain it.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I would have done that with the Reds picking up some money, sure.

 
Why even require that? He makes 9.8 million a year and is only going through his age 36 season. And they're the Yankees. Cincy shouldn't have to pick up a cent, and I'm shocked the Yankees didn't take that deal. Maybe they'll get a better offer, but Gardiner is clearly excess at this point and his value has to be limited due to his impending free agency.
 
Fairly shocked the Yankees rejected this offer, if true.
 

 

$7.2mm difference between their salaries helps explain it.

 
Well, not really. As stated above, Gardiner is a free agent, so that difference is only for the first year, and there's no guarantee Cincy gets to keep him. If Phillips was a FA right now, you'd have to think the Yankees would chomp at the bit to take a 4/39 contract for Phillips. I'd think Gardiner would be worth that for the Yankees, given their current roster construction.

 

[jon abbey]

That's the clearest sign yet to me that they are determined to stay under $189M. 

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

Actually, this makes sense now. Phillips wanted more money. Does he have a no-trade clause?
 
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 26m
NL source: before yanks turned down phillips-for-gardner bid, phillips asked to re-open his contract (add $) to agree to deal

 

[rembrat]

I'm not seeing a NTC.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

Apparently it's partial. Rosenthal and Sherman are also reporting that Phillips had a no-trade clause to the Yankees.
 
Sherman reporting Gardner will only be traded for pitching, but Yankees told Reds they would do due diligence on Phillips anyway.

 

[Sampo Gida]

There are many reasons not to want Philips and his remaining 4 yrs and 50 million.  However, the main one is that pitching is their immediate need, and there is nothing on the free agent market with Colon gone. Tanaka's price will be sky high under the new posting system.   Gardner is their only tradeable commodity that has a hope of yielding a decent pitcher, especially if bundled with one of their catching prospects and perhaps a damaged prospect like Campos.
 
They can plug the holes at 3B or 2B with available free agents, and they may want to wait until the verdict is in on Arod for that. Johnson is going to start the season at 2B or 3B in any event.   Worst case you have Johnson at 2B and Nunez at 3B and hope that Jeter is more than a statue at SS.  I mean, that's what 189 gets you.  A significant acquisition like Phillips puts them over 189 even with Arod gone for the year and still needing to fill holes in the pitching

 

[Cowboys Idiots N Beards]

I think, while Gardiner is valuable to their line up, that trade for Phillips should've happened. They need an upgrade at 2B.

 

[terrynever]

I think, while Gardiner is valuable to their line up, that trade for Phillips should've happened. They need an upgrade at 2B.

Seems like they made a smart decision to avoid Phillips and his $50M contract plus potential bad attitude and .320 career OBP. They prefer Infante, who is asking $40M for 4 years right now.

 

[Cowboys Idiots N Beards]

They're trying to avoid bad attitude players? Is this a new thing?

 

[terrynever]

They're trying to avoid bad attitude players? Is this a new thing?

No. They've always tried to put together players who try to do the right thing. Mondesi was a bad example back in 2002. Say what you want about A-Rod but he has always worked hard and played hard between the lines.

 

[mauf]

If the right to pay Ian Kinsler $62mm over 4 years had zero or slightly negative value (the Tigers certainly wouldn't have sent less money to Texas if Kinsler wasn't part of that deal), I can't imagine Brandon Philips has significant positive value. Maybe this deal isn't indicative of Gardner's value, but if it is, the MFY won't be moving him for a pitcher except in a salary dump.

The ideal trading partner would be someone who (i) needs a CF, (ii) has an SP signed to a long-term deal that is unfavorable but not cripplingly awful, and (iii) is willing to kick in cash to cover most of the difference in 2014 salaries between Gardner and said SP. That way, the MFY would get their SP for Gardner without screwing the $189mm project, and the trading team would fill their CF hole for one season while offloading a contract they probably aren't thrilled about (though it couldn't be too bad).

Edwin Jackson's peripherals weren't bad last season, but maybe Theo would like to get out of that contract, or even use the money to make Gardner a building block. I could see that happening if the MFY kicked in a prospect.

Any other possible suitors?

 

[Cowboys Idiots N Beards]

A-Rod is still a huge cancer in any clubhouse and a helluva distraction!

 

[terrynever]

If the right to pay Ian Kinsler $62mm over 4 years had zero or slightly negative value (the Tigers certainly wouldn't have sent less money to Texas if Kinsler wasn't part of that deal), I can't imagine Brandon Philips has significant positive value. Maybe this deal isn't indicative of Gardner's value, but if it is, the MFY won't be moving him for a pitcher except in a salary dump.

The ideal trading partner would be someone who (i) needs a CF, (ii) has an SP signed to a long-term deal that is unfavorable but not cripplingly awful, and (iii) is willing to kick in cash to cover most of the difference in 2014 salaries between Gardner and said SP. That way, the MFY would get their SP for Gardner without screwing the $189mm project, and the trading team would fill their CF hole for one season while offloading a contract they probably aren't thrilled about (though it couldn't be too bad).

Edwin Jackson's peripherals weren't bad last season, but maybe Theo would like to get out of that contract, or even use the money to make Gardner a building block. I could see that happening if the MFY kicked in a prospect.

Any other possible suitors?

Good analysis. I just don't see them trading Gardner. Sign a FA pitcher. Would prefer they release Wells. Ichiro can be a fourth outfielder, and probably an unhappy one. Cashman has to break up the logjam but I hope it's not at the expense of Gardner.

 

[MakMan44]

Well, with Infante off the board the only real way for the Yankees to upgrade 2nd (which is a real need IMO) is via a trade. Gardner is probably their most valuable piece on that front. I'd look to the M's, ironically, see if they can get a deal for Ackley or Franklin. Maybe even expand it to include a pitcher.

 

[Wingack]

Well, with Infante off the board the only real way for the Yankees to upgrade 2nd (which is a real need IMO) is via a trade. Gardner is probably their most valuable piece on that front. I'd look to the M's, ironically, see if they can get a deal for Ackley or Franklin. Maybe even expand it to include a pitcher.

I like this idea a ton. I also support the speculation of a 3 team deal with the Reds and Indians and Masterson coming to the Yankees.