Should the Red Sox sign Dansby Swanson?

Should the Red Sox sign Dansby Swanson?

  • Yes

    Votes: 109 35.5%
  • No

    Votes: 198 64.5%

  • Total voters
    307
  • Poll closed .

johnlos

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Aug 22, 2014
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Want to keep this simple. Assume he goes for the kind of money we were offering Xander (reported $6/160). Fangraphs estimated 6/$140 and ESPN 6/$150 so Swanson's number should be close, but might have to tack on $10-20m or a 7th year based on the crazy contracts being doled out this offseason.
 

The Filthy One

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I would sign him to Correa’s deal from last year (with the opt outs). But no thanks to anything beyond that. It seems like paying long money for second tier players is less desirable than paying obscene money for top tier players.
 

johnlos

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I'm (possibly naively) of the opinion that he's secretly the best value of the big-4 shortstops this offseason. He's a little younger (next year is age-29 season), been healthy for every year but one, and the glove has never been a question so I think his WAR will age well.
 

streeter88

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Seems very convenient that his dWAR swelled this year in his walk year, lots of Ks, and I don't see the long term success that X or Correa have. Seems to be able to hit HRs though which is a plus.

The options for an impact bat / SS are dwindling, but I think it comes down to whether you think Swanson will help the Red Sox beyond 2023, and would Devers more likely stay if they signed Swanson? If the answer isn't a convincing yes, then don't sign him.
 

radsoxfan

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Swanson definitely looks the riskiest of the group to me, his 2022 was a pretty huge outlier. He could easily be just a 2-3 WAR player moving forward.

I wouldn't entirely cross him off the list but would only be interested if he falls through the cracks to 4-5 years and 22-23M or so AAV.
 

ehaz

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2020: 2.3 fWAR* 116 wRC+ .348 wOBA vs .354 xwOBA
2021: 3.4 fWAR 99 wRC+ .322 wOBA vs 332 xwOBA
2022: 6.4 fWAR 115 wRC+ .337 wOBA vs .337 xwOBA

*Covid-19 shortened season so only played 60 games. Over 160 games, that's another 6 fWAR season.

I don't think the offensive improvement is a mirage. Over the last three seasons, his batted ball data suggests he's actually been a tad unlucky. But is the defense platinum glove good or just above average?
 

grimshaw

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I'm (possibly naively) of the opinion that he's secretly the best value of the big-4 shortstops this offseason. He's a little younger (next year is age-29 season), been healthy for every year but one, and the glove has never been a question so I think his WAR will age well.
This has been my take as well. They waited out Story's deal and got a reasonable contract out of it, and I think Swanson compares favorably if they get a similar AAV. If they have to add a few years, so be it. They both have high floors and the market is the market.

Interestingly, Steamer has him and Story as very similar next season, with Swanson as the better player.

Swanson - BB% 7.7, K% 25.2 %, .247/.309/.413 wRC+ 104. fWAR 3.3
Story - BB% 8.7%, K%26.7% .239/.312/.419 wRC+ 103, fWAR2.9

They are both excellent base runners too.
 
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E5 Yaz

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I've thought about this, but ultimately came down on the No side of the vote. It's close, but if the choice is Swanson or a 2B plug-in such as Segura for a couple of seasons, I'd go with the shorter, less costly contract. Swanson doesn't move the needle enough for me to make it worth it; he's just the "second-best available" at this point.

Minor quibble, Correa is about 7 months younger than Swanson.
 

Archer1979

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Two minutes to last call and you still haven't hooked up doesn't mean that you start throwing around marriage proposals (kind of how we ended up with Story). This team isn't making the playoff with this starting rotation, especially since the Sox don't appear to be chasing afer Eovaldi. We're fixated on a shortstop right now since we lost X.

Largest need is a top of the rotation pitcher.
 

johnlos

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Aug 22, 2014
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This has been my take as well. They waited out Story's deal and got a reasonable contract out of it, and I think Swanson compares favorably if they get a similar AAV. If they have to add a few years, so be it. They both have high floors and the market is the market.

Interestingly, Steamer has him and Story as very similar next season, with Swanson as the better player.

Swanson - BB% 7.7, K% 25.2 %, .247/.309/.413 wRC+ 104. fWAR 3.3
Story - BB% 8.7%, K%26.7% .239/.312/.419 wRC+ 103, fWAR2.9

They are both excellent base runners too.
Funny just looked up Story's contract too. Which most people considered a good deal and I still am optimistic about long-term unlike ^. He makes a good point about starting pitching though. Unlike say PHI we don't have 3 top arms coming through the pipeline (it's Bello and that's it) so can't rely on the system there.

On the one hand the prudent move is to wait him out a bit and see if we can land him at a nicer price. OTOH with inflation and the new CBA in place Story's 6/$140 is basically the same as Swanson's 6/$150, so if that's on the table I think you grab it. We have the money.
 

mauidano

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What is wrong with Story at SS? Prior to Boston he had a magnificent run with Colorado as their SS.
 

simplicio

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Elbow trouble and one of the worst arm strength ratings, coupled with some throws shifted to the 3b side this year that looked incredibly weak.
 

OCD SS

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Ehaz’s numbers provide some cause for optimism, but ultimately Swanson looks like he’s riding putting up his career year in his walk year. Good for him, but I wouldn’t pay him at that level, especially with the draft penalties.

Either go big for Correa, or you live with Story.

I think the worries about Story’s arm are a bit overblown (I don’t think he’s worse than Swanson), but it’s just a limitation that will cost the occasional play not to be made, not render him to mantle to play on a hr left side at all… we lived with X’s limited range as another example.

If the team can’t extend Devers they may as well pony up for Correa, I’m not sure who they’ll be planning to spend on otherwise.
 

teddywingman

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That chart is an insane underestimation of Xander's arm.
I'm either misinterpreting the chart, or it's just wrong.

Last season:
Bogaerts was 3rd in assists throughout MLB at his position. He was 5th in double plays at SS.

That's a great arm and top level fielding. Especially when you consider some of the trash he was working with at 2B and 1B (Not counting the 90 games or whatever Story played).
 
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CarolinaBeerGuy

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moondog80

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I guess if his market collapses they will be opportunistic like they were with Story last year, but my fear is that all of the fans' frustrations will be taken on him if he's anything less than an all star.
 

pedro1999mvp

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Bottom line for me is simple: He will require about the same amount of money that we low-balled Xander with. If we won't block Meyer by signing Xander, why would we block Meyer with a much lesser player? Sign a stopgag and wait for Meyer at this point.
 

catomatic

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I understand with the new shifting rules you are required to have someone at the Shortstop position so unless they sign someone else for this role they need to sign Swanson. I will call him Hungry Man.
Love this.
All good hits will have been “Mashed,” yes? And room service hops can be reinterpreted as having come on a “TV-Tray.” If he strikes out swinging, it can be termed a “Hot Foil.”

Will Dansby get a 4-5 year offer somewhere, though? My strong preference would be for it to max out at three. Beyond that and I’m kicking the tires on an Adalberto Mondesi-type stop-gap.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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At this point it’s Correa or bust (deal Devers… I think… as of right now…). Correa at least has the more predictable offensive upside to move to 3rd if Bloom can’t resign Devers and doesn’t trade him* while Swanson just doesn’t.

*not to get off track
 

The_Dali

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I find it odd that the board completely pans on Sale's contract, largely because of the inability to stay on the field lately, yet want to throw $350 million at Correa who has a well documented back issue.

I like Swanson at a lower AAV and shorter years. Our infield will be in flux depending on Casas and Mayer and the contract situation with Devers, so having another solid player who could potentially shift to 3b makes sense to me,
 

A Bad Man

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Wow, the new Statcast Arm Strength stuff is just awesome. Thanks, @CarolinaBeerGuy! They have video for each throw (of the top 5% of throws)! FWIW, Swanson has been an OAA beast the last few years (99, 77, 100th percentiles) with a very weak arm (15, 13, 15). Athletically, perhaps a solid comp for Story, with similar Sprint Speeds. Swanson in '21 had a weaker arm than Story in '21. A small sample size, to be sure, but it suggests that Story's stellar range and noodle arm can still play at short.
 

InsideTheParker

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I find it odd that the board completely pans on Sale's contract, largely because of the inability to stay on the field lately, yet want to throw $350 million at Correa who has a well documented back issue.

I like Swanson at a lower AAV and shorter years. Our infield will be in flux depending on Casas and Mayer and the contract situation with Devers, so having another solid player who could potentially shift to 3b makes sense to me,
I agree with this post. However, last night I dreamed I was at a Red Sox game and the crowd was chanting: Sign Iggy, Sign Iggy!
 

ehaz

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I find it odd that the board completely pans on Sale's contract, largely because of the inability to stay on the field lately, yet want to throw $350 million at Correa who has a well documented back issue.

I like Swanson at a lower AAV and shorter years. Our infield will be in flux depending on Casas and Mayer and the contract situation with Devers, so having another solid player who could potentially shift to 3b makes sense to me,
Pitchers are different. And Correa hasn't missed time due to his back since 2019 so maybe that's been resolved. He's been healthy last three seasons. 58 of 60 games in 2020 COVID season (only missed 2 games after fouling ball off his ankle), 148 games in 2021 (missed a little time for health and safety protocols), and 136 games in 2022 (IL stint for fouling a ball of his finger).
 

Manramsclan

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I'm in the "Free Agent money to non-superstars" is bad business.

I think it's less risky to sign Correa for a 10/$300M deal than Swanson at 8/$200 and the former has a great deal of risk.
 

Seels

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why does arm strength really matter? You're looking at what a 1/4 of a second difference in the throw from short to first? This can't be worth more than a run or two a year.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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why does arm strength really matter? You're looking at what a 1/4 of a second difference in the throw from short to first? This can't be worth more than a run or two a year.
Not advocating Story at SS, but I seem to recall David Eckstein doing fine with that small arm of his. His throws were weakish but they got there in time.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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If I am reading the percentile chart above correctly, it looks like Swanson has a worse arm than Story and I don't recall seeing anyone question Dansby staying a SS.

If that's the case, move Story to SS and sign Segura for 2B.
 

snowmanny

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If I am reading the percentile chart above correctly, it looks like Swanson has a worse arm than Story and I don't recall seeing anyone question Dansby staying a SS.

If that's the case, move Story to SS and sign Segura for 2B.
Then move Story back to second when Mayer is ready.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Is there a "glove to 1b" timing metric? Arm strength alone doesn't tell the story. I'm sure players like Xander can compensate for below avg (82mph is still hella fast) velo if they pick the ball from their glove fast, and bring the ball to their hand faster than others. What's worse? A defender who pumps the ball once with top velo or one who has super fast transitions and slow velo?
 

Yo La Tengo

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If I am reading the percentile chart above correctly, it looks like Swanson has a worse arm than Story and I don't recall seeing anyone question Dansby staying a SS.

If that's the case, move Story to SS and sign Segura for 2B.
There are a couple of issues. Story's drop in velocity is due to repeated/ongoing injuries while Swanson has played all but 4 games over the last three years. So, putting Story at shortstop is a problem if: he re-injures himself, his velocity continues to drop as it has over the last few years, or he cannot adapt/compensate for the drop in velocity. And, regardless the Sox would be losing a fantastic defensive second baseman, who would likely be replaced by a less effective defender at a time when that position matters more due to eliminating the shift.

EDIT: Here's some additional context- Story regularly threw 85 to low 90s mph through 2019 but over the next 2 years has only one throw that exceeded 85 mph. In a story from July 2021, when Story again missed time due to a sore elbow, Rosenthal states: "The average velocity on the top 10 percent of Story’s throws is 78.1 mph, down from 80.4 last season and an average of 85.4 the four previous years."

Here is additional info from the last time we talked about Story and shortstop:


I agree. Worth noting that Story missed time in 2018 with an elbow problem that was bothersome enough that by 2021, it was reported that he had altered his throwing motion to protect his elbow (and likely leading to additional loss of velocity):

"Story adjusted his throwing motion, utilizing less of his snappy, sidearm release, and instead making an effort to transfer the ball from glove to hand more quickly, and to step toward first and engage his shoulder more to get enough on his throws."

EDIT: There was reporting in 2018 that Story was working on changing his throwing mechanics due to his concerns about his elbow. All of which is to say that this is not a new issue or a single, discreet injury.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/09/25/trevor-story-returns-rockies-lineup-elbow-injury

After a hectic introduction to Boston this year, I think a normal offseason could help him thrive next year.
 
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radsoxfan

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That's kind of what I've been wondering too. Wouldn't range be significantly more important?
My uneducated hunch is the same, with the caveat there is probably some arm strength threshold a SS has to meet.

If a SS arm is weak enough it consistently threatens outs on routine grounders against above average runners, things will go south quickly.

But in general, I have to imagine getting to a lot more ground balls is much more important than being able to get a few extra outs per year with a 90+ mph arm.
 

absintheofmalaise

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From watching Swanson the past few years, and yes I realize that this is anecdotal, I don't ever recall thinking that he had a weak arm. He does have a pretty quick release, which could make up for not having the strongest arm. Pretty good footwork and mechanics fielding and on throws. Good range too. He does make questionable decisions t times, but almost every player does.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If Swanson and Correa were both 3B there’d be no question who everyone would prefer….. which is probably the case in 2 years