That would be a great deal for the Sox, but for the fact of the Qualifying Offer.
I predict that Swanson's next deal will produce more value/dollar than Correa or Xander or Turner's deals.
Should the Red Sox sign Dansby Swanson?
- Thread starter johnlos
- Start date
I predict that Swanson's next deal will produce more value/dollar than Correa or Xander or Turner's deals.
I concur. Stopgap signing for '23. Rafaela at SS for '24. Mayer at SS, Rafaela at CF for '25.
Who would be cheapest? Segura? Andrus? Iggy? A trade for Adalberto Mondesi?
They’re all kind of interchangeable at this point.
In the most fatalistic version of the next season, any stopgap SS should be someone who has trade value either in July or this time next year.
Just looking at some stats. SWANSON had 25 Home runs. BOGIE and J.D. had 31 together. Very interesting.
I like all three. Really want Iggy for defense, but the other two are good as well. All 3 good stop gap measures until Mayer arrives.
Iggy would probably be cheapest. If we go stop gap, I'd take any of them except for Mondesi. I think the one requirement I'd have for a rental is that you could rely on them to play ~130 games at SS, given that your internal options (Kike, Arroyo, Story) all have injury histories and or moving them to SS hurts you significantly elsewhere.
Wow! Swanson will light it up at Fenway. Thanks for that chart link. ps. not that it matters with Baseball stats, but my two 20 something year old nieces thinks Swanson is a very handsome man. Lol They love his beard. Lol. Ha ha.
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He’s off the market as of very recently. They got married at one of our favorite places, a hotel off of Lake Reynolds in GA.
1 of the 3 had a career year. The numbers are a bit different on a larger sample…
At this point, I’m fully expecting Swanson to land a 10 year deal or so, which I would imagine would not place him in Boston.
Perhaps the Giants were the last of the cRaZiEs? Swanson doesn't warrant a massive contract like the others. Dansby had a .315 OBP .438 SLG vs. Rs last year.
This deal is certainly quite expensive, but it makes more sense to me than either Bogaerts’ or Turner’s deals, because Correa is two years younger and, I think, a bit better. You’re getting more prime seasons, even if you’re also paying more for them.
Correa has dealt with back issues throughout his career though. And at this point I would just stick with Story who’s contract last year is looking like a bargain.
Use that money elsewhere
View: https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1602894984730087424
Swanson will most definitely get a 9 or 10 year deal now. There is no way Bloom is doling that out. Just try to lock up Devers if you can and sign Andrus to a 2 year deal if you can if he's not also getting some crazy deal. He is a boras client so who knows.
From B-Ref for the same time period. As @OCD SS pointed out, 2022 was a career year for Swanson. I'm tacking on their OWAR for the same years. I think most here know how I feel about DWAR.
Home runs are great, but you need to look at everything on offense.
Swanson
JD Martinez
Bogaerts
Attachments
I have a feeling one of the Twins or Cubs will make Swanson an offer that is more than we are comfortable with. Would I be okay with Swanson? Sure. There is offensive potential there and he's young enough. Otherwise, move Story to SS and sign Segura ASAP.
Jean Segura may not be the smoothest character to add to the clubhouse, we should be aware. He brawled with Dee Gordon in Seattle in 2018 and had an altercation with Joe Girardi (fair) in Philadelphia in 2021.
Arroyo seems like he could handle second base if it comes to that, with a capable backup (Valdez?) around. Rather than Segura, I'd prefer Donovan Solano, who is nothing special but hits a ton of line drives and makes a lot of contact.
Arroyo seems like he could handle second base if it comes to that, with a capable backup (Valdez?) around. Rather than Segura, I'd prefer Donovan Solano, who is nothing special but hits a ton of line drives and makes a lot of contact.
I'd prefer Elvis Andrus over Segura and the others. If we're going stop-gap, give me the guy who can play SS. Segura is a better hitter and younger, but will cost more. I don't think the marginal difference in offense is enough to overcome more years and dollars + inability to play SS.
OPS+ for the last five years for each:
Andrus - 103, 73, 60, 78, 78
Segura - 104, 111, 107, 91, 112
Preferring to keep Story at 2B is one thing, but calling that a marginal difference in offense is certainly an opinion.
Andrus - 103, 73, 60, 78, 78
Segura - 104, 111, 107, 91, 112
Preferring to keep Story at 2B is one thing, but calling that a marginal difference in offense is certainly an opinion.
Segura seemed universally well-liked by the fellow Phillies players even if he had a thing with Girardi. And unlike Solano (who is two years older, surprisingly) he has 3-WAR upside whereas Solano is a 1-WAR kinda guy
I really don't think Swanson moves the needle at all relative to what the other "big market" teams have been doing. I voted no.
I think what you're showing here is very much what I like about Swanson. Considering he was a #1 overall pick, the talent is not in question. I think it just took him longer than usual to adjust to major league pitching but he's trending in the right direction. So it's likely 2022 is not just an aberration.
I know 2022 was a career year offensively, that and Dansby's career OPS+ is only 95, etc. but people are forgetting how quickly Swanson was moved through the minors. Swanson had just one real minor league season split between A and AA the year after he was drafted. That same year (2016) he was promoted straight from AA to MLB with all of 84 games in the upper minors under his belt for the last month and a half of the season.
So, no surprise really that he struggled to adjust to MLB pitching in his first two seasons. Swanson hadn't fully adjusted to AA pitching by the time he made his debut. He was demoted to AAA after a horrendous start to his first full MLB season in 2017 and played the only 11 games of his career in AAA before getting called back up due to the Braves' injuries. In 2018 (2nd MLB season), Swanson started off on fire in April, hurt his wrist in May, and struggled through the rest of the season while playing with a torn ligament that required the Braves to shut him down just before the playoffs and eventually surgery.
I'm much more comfortable throwing his 2017 and 2018 seasons out the window. 2019-2022 and the trend within that span is what's really relevant to me. He probably still ends up getting more than I'm comfortable with though in this crazy offseason.
I'd forgotten about the wrist injury. I have no idea what kind of contract he signs after what's been happening so far. I like him as a player. I think he'll fall somewhere under what Bogaerts received, but who knows anymore. And the Sox have Mayer in the wings, but at this point he's still a prospect.
Cross posted from another thread so as not to add to the "rumors" when I have no rumor to share.
The good news (for anyone whom doesn't want Swanson) is that this tweet is as close to an iron clad assurance as there is in sports that we're not at all in on Swanson.
He's also on his honeymoon, so I seriously doubt we'll hear anything about him and another any team until next week at the earliest.
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FWIW, yes, I'd take Swanson at around the 6/$160m we eventually got around to offering Bogaerts.
As it stands we have one player with any manner of major league track record that looks like any part of the core of the team (because I assume Devers is gone). I like the Yoshida signing and you have to give Casas at bats (though I remain quite concerned that he had a .591OPS against LHP in AA, a .617OPS against LHP in AAA). But if you can add a 3.5 fWAR player (his average over the past 4 seasons) I think it has to be done at this point.
Granted, I wanted to just keep the guy who had a 4.5 fWAR average over that time frame, then the guy whom had a 3.95 fWAR over that time frame. But if you can get Swanson for less than $200m, I think that's far better than counting on some combination of Christian Arroyo and Rob Refsnyder for the next two years.
That said, since Heyman is reporting it, there is a 0.0% chance we're in on / going to land Swanson.
As it stands we have one player with any manner of major league track record that looks like any part of the core of the team (because I assume Devers is gone). I like the Yoshida signing and you have to give Casas at bats (though I remain quite concerned that he had a .591OPS against LHP in AA, a .617OPS against LHP in AAA). But if you can add a 3.5 fWAR player (his average over the past 4 seasons) I think it has to be done at this point.
Granted, I wanted to just keep the guy who had a 4.5 fWAR average over that time frame, then the guy whom had a 3.95 fWAR over that time frame. But if you can get Swanson for less than $200m, I think that's far better than counting on some combination of Christian Arroyo and Rob Refsnyder for the next two years.
That said, since Heyman is reporting it, there is a 0.0% chance we're in on / going to land Swanson.
Ah yes, seriously considering Swanson, just like they were seriously considering everyone else. Just wait until Bloom hears he wants more than a year at the vet minimum...
He was never my 1st choice and he’s probably going to cost more than we could have
signed Xander for 3 months ago, but I think he’s the real deal and would bea major
first step in making us relevant. We are where we are and have to deal with what is
and not what could have been. sign him!
signed Xander for 3 months ago, but I think he’s the real deal and would bea major
first step in making us relevant. We are where we are and have to deal with what is
and not what could have been. sign him!
My answer is still no given the expected $ amount needed to get him. 108 OPS+ last 3 years. Doesn't walk enough. K's a ton. Almost 29. A good player who can certainly help but not good enough to warrant giving a monster contract to. Let someone else take the plunge.
Speier deciphering Borasfu, and if true, I wonder if Chaim is still around when Mayer is mashing at Fenway.
Alex Speier
@alexspeier
·Boras implied that he feels Sox offer for Bogaerts was capped by team’s excitement about Mayer
Alex Speier
@alexspeier
·Boras implied that he feels Sox offer for Bogaerts was capped by team’s excitement about Mayer
At what point is he out of teams with the need and willingness to spend big on a SS? It seems like the other teams mentioned are the Twins & Cubs.
I normally wouldn’t worry about the Sox being outbid by the Twins, but the way the off-season is going, it’s best not to rule anything out.
The Cubs are more problematic: Rickets has been saying he wants to spend to get in contention, but hasn’t done much other than sign Bellinger, and their window seems farther out than the Sox’s. There are also the possible issues of where his wife may be playing, but I assume (hope?) that would be a tiebreaker and not a dealbreaker.
Anyone else? Who’s the mystery team?
The Dodgers lost their shortstop and have lots of money. They've been mentioned, but they seem to be resetting their cap status to take a run at Ohtani.
Swanson could also head back to the Braves.
I voted no. Just because he's the last loaf of bread on the shelf, you don't need to buy him. X made sense as a known quantity and face-of-the-franchise guy, Correa made sense as a big swing high ceiling guy, but Swanson? A good player who wouldn't likely ever be a part of the Next Big Run.
Gavin Lux and Christian Arroyo would make a pretty sweet middle infield platoon, if Lux became available after a Swanson signing.
Lux vs. RHP, career: .265/.340/.408
Arroyo vs. LHP, career: .274/.309/.416
Lux vs. RHP, career: .265/.340/.408
Arroyo vs. LHP, career: .274/.309/.416