This debate started in the Trade Rumors thread. It's derailing the thread (I apologize for my role in that) so I'm taking a suggestion from another poster to start a new thread for it. For the sake of the poll, let's assume that his salary would be market value for his projected WAR over those seasons (using Oliver from Fangraphs). So between 6 and 8.4 million (5-7 million per WAR) next year, between 6.5 and 9.1 million in 2016 and between 5 and 7 million in 2017.
Let's examine the potential length of such a deal. My position is that teams do not go multiple years for relievers in their 40's. Mariano Rivera is the obvious and as far as I can tell, only example of a team spending any kind of substantial money for a reliever on the wrong side of 40. He's the exception. San Diego's last contract with Trevor Hoffman took him through his age 40 season and Milwaukee signed him to a 1 year deal the year after that. They then re-signed him for another 1 year deal with a club option that they declined when he fell off the table. Teams stay away from multi-year commitments to relievers in their 40's because athletes in their 40's tend to age poorly, and relievers are volatile enough in the first place.
In the case of Koji we have not seen any reports of him asking to be extended so there is no pressure to address this now, and we have a history of teams not going multiple years for relievers at this age, so there is little reason to believe that allowing Koji to reach the free agent market will force the Red Sox to start out bidding teams on 2 and 3 year deals to keep him. They will have an exclusive negotiating window after the World Series ends to reach a deal or even make a QO if they fear a multi-year market developing and are willing to overpay him for one season to keep him here. I'm not seeing the incentive to address this now or to open the winter with a multi-year offer. If a multi-year market develops for him, you make a decision on that then. Doing so now is jumping the gun. Let the season play out to make sure Koji stays healthy and effective, then make a fair offer if he does and aim to keep it to one year, but be prepared to offer a vesting option. Don't leave yourself on the hook for multiple years with a guy this old.
Additionally, Koji is a feel and deception pitcher. His success depends on maintaining a feel for his splitter and his mechanics staying consistent to keep up the deception he has with the ball being kept behind his head for as long as possible before delivering each pitch. If his shoulder or elbow deteriorate even a little, it might force him to alter his arm angle and his deception might evaporate. And how many pitchers have we seen with devastating splitters that suddenly lose it from one season to the next? Curt Schilling has talked about how difficult it is to maintain your feel for that pitch. So beyond the age concerns, there are reasons to worry that Koji might go from incredibly dominant to average or worse.
If he's not forcing the issue, I see no reason the Sox should.
Let's examine the potential length of such a deal. My position is that teams do not go multiple years for relievers in their 40's. Mariano Rivera is the obvious and as far as I can tell, only example of a team spending any kind of substantial money for a reliever on the wrong side of 40. He's the exception. San Diego's last contract with Trevor Hoffman took him through his age 40 season and Milwaukee signed him to a 1 year deal the year after that. They then re-signed him for another 1 year deal with a club option that they declined when he fell off the table. Teams stay away from multi-year commitments to relievers in their 40's because athletes in their 40's tend to age poorly, and relievers are volatile enough in the first place.
In the case of Koji we have not seen any reports of him asking to be extended so there is no pressure to address this now, and we have a history of teams not going multiple years for relievers at this age, so there is little reason to believe that allowing Koji to reach the free agent market will force the Red Sox to start out bidding teams on 2 and 3 year deals to keep him. They will have an exclusive negotiating window after the World Series ends to reach a deal or even make a QO if they fear a multi-year market developing and are willing to overpay him for one season to keep him here. I'm not seeing the incentive to address this now or to open the winter with a multi-year offer. If a multi-year market develops for him, you make a decision on that then. Doing so now is jumping the gun. Let the season play out to make sure Koji stays healthy and effective, then make a fair offer if he does and aim to keep it to one year, but be prepared to offer a vesting option. Don't leave yourself on the hook for multiple years with a guy this old.
Additionally, Koji is a feel and deception pitcher. His success depends on maintaining a feel for his splitter and his mechanics staying consistent to keep up the deception he has with the ball being kept behind his head for as long as possible before delivering each pitch. If his shoulder or elbow deteriorate even a little, it might force him to alter his arm angle and his deception might evaporate. And how many pitchers have we seen with devastating splitters that suddenly lose it from one season to the next? Curt Schilling has talked about how difficult it is to maintain your feel for that pitch. So beyond the age concerns, there are reasons to worry that Koji might go from incredibly dominant to average or worse.
If he's not forcing the issue, I see no reason the Sox should.
