Shin-Soo Choo: Manny without the power?

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How much of a priority should signing him be for Ben Cherington et al?


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ponch73

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Andrew said:
I don't think that report is accurate, it's assuming that the *entirety* of the contract would not be taxed, vs the entirety of the contract being subject to New York taxes if he signed with the Yankees. Professional athletes have to file taxes in every single state they play in.
 
It's still a significant amount of money, but it's not $15 million.
I would have expected it to be closer to $9 million, meaning that the Yankees and Rangers offers were roughly equal.
 
According to the following article, the top state and local tax rate in New York City this year is 12.7%.  I believe that the comparable rate in Texas would be 0%.  
 
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-12-18/wealthy-n-dot-y-dot-residents-escape-levy-with-trusts-in-nevada-taxes
 
In 2013, 105 out of 162 Texas Rangers regular season games were in a no state income tax jurisdiction (Texas, Washington or Florida).  In comparison, 20 out of 162 New York Yankees regular season games were in a no state income tax jurisdiction.   So, for argument's sake, assuming that half of Choo's $140 million incurs New York state and local taxes, he'd owe $8.9 million in New York taxes, and assuming that 2.5% more of Choo's $140 million (extra 4 out of 162 games) incurs other state/province and local taxes, he'd owe an incremental $0.2 million or so in other state/province taxes.  
 
Maybe there's more going on underneath the surface with regard to state tax dynamics (reduced deductibles, additional tax surcharges for entertainment related income, etc.)?
 

PrometheusWakefield

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I think expectations for Choo were set so high that people are relatively blase about him getting $130 million, but it still should be said that this is the worst contract given this offseason, in my opinion by quite a bit, and the Rangers will almost certainly regret this in the very near future.  To demonstrate, lets play everyone's favorite game, compare Player A with Player B.  Here are Oliver's projections of two outfielders next year:
 
Player A: .274/.391/.435, -.1 Fld, .3 BsR, 4.7 WAR, 31 yrs old 
Player B: .262/.337/.347, 16.6 Fld, 2.3 BsR, 4.4 WAR, 30 yrs old
 
Obviously these are very different players - Player A provides considerably more offense, but that's pretty much all he provides, as whatever speed he offers is offset by his low SB success rate and even with a predicted rebound in his defensive profile he's still below average.  Player B on the other hand provides so much value with his defense and speed that even with his ok at best offensive ability he projects as approximately Choo's equal.  And not just for 2014 either.  Here's projected value over the next 5 years:
 
Player A: 4.7, 4.5, 4.1, 3.7, 3.4
Player B: 4.4, 4.3, 4.2, 3.9, 3.5
 
Overall player A projects to be worth 20.4 wins over the next 5 years.  Player B projects to be worth 20.3 wins.  
 
Player A is 2014 Rangers RF Shin Soo Choo.
Player B is 2013 Rangers RF Craig Gentry.
 
The Rangers spent almost $20 million more and it's not clear they even upgraded the position.  All of which to say that if you are a corner outfielder who doesn't play good defense and can't get his speed to work for his team and you don't really hit for power, then you really aren't that valuable a player.  Choo may be Manny without the power, but since almost all of Manny's value was located in his power that isn't saying very much.  Choo is also Pedro Martinez without the ability to pitch.  
 

wyatt55

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Nov 26, 2005
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PrometheusWakefield said:
I think expectations for Choo were set so high that people are relatively blase about him getting $130 million, but it still should be said that this is the worst contract given this offseason, in my opinion by quite a bit, and the Rangers will almost certainly regret this in the very near future.  To demonstrate, lets play everyone's favorite game, compare Player A with Player B.  Here are Oliver's projections of two outfielders next year:
 
Player A: .274/.391/.435, -.1 Fld, .3 BsR, 4.7 WAR, 31 yrs old 
Player B: .262/.337/.347, 16.6 Fld, 2.3 BsR, 4.4 WAR, 30 yrs old
 
Obviously these are very different players - Player A provides considerably more offense, but that's pretty much all he provides, as whatever speed he offers is offset by his low SB success rate and even with a predicted rebound in his defensive profile he's still below average.  Player B on the other hand provides so much value with his defense and speed that even with his ok at best offensive ability he projects as approximately Choo's equal.  And not just for 2014 either.  Here's projected value over the next 5 years:
 
Player A: 4.7, 4.5, 4.1, 3.7, 3.4
Player B: 4.4, 4.3, 4.2, 3.9, 3.5
 
Overall player A projects to be worth 20.4 wins over the next 5 years.  Player B projects to be worth 20.3 wins.  
 
Player A is 2014 Rangers RF Shin Soo Choo.
Player B is 2013 Rangers RF Craig Gentry.
 
The Rangers spent almost $20 million more and it's not clear they even upgraded the position.  All of which to say that if you are a corner outfielder who doesn't play good defense and can't get his speed to work for his team and you don't really hit for power, then you really aren't that valuable a player.  Choo may be Manny without the power, but since almost all of Manny's value was located in his power that isn't saying very much.  Choo is also Pedro Martinez without the ability to pitch.  
Great post pm. I spoke with a Ranger's fan friend yesterday and he was raving about the Choo signing  I told him I felt Gentry was undervalued and that I was surprised they let Gentry go for so little as he's cheap and he compared (eyeballed stats only) pretty favorably with Ellsbury at a fraction of the cost.  Nice pickup by the A's. 
 
The only reason I could think of is Jon Daniels feels he has his speedy OF type in Leonys Martin, Gentry was a duplicate and they felt more strongly about replacing Cruz's power - hence choo/fielder for a boatload of cash.  The Rangers did their speed experiment last year and it didn't quite get them to the playoffs. 
 
Daniels, in addition to urgently trying to get that ring, is also mending fences with the fan base to a degree over the Nolan Ryan departure. I think they'll regret this within 2 years. 
 

Devizier

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One thing I've always wondered is if defense is as projectable as offense, especially in the long term.
 
This would be a good test case.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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wyatt55 said:
Great post pm. I spoke with a Ranger's fan friend yesterday and he was raving about the Choo signing  I told him I felt Gentry was undervalued and that I was surprised they let Gentry go for so little as he's cheap and he compared (eyeballed stats only) pretty favorably with Ellsbury at a fraction of the cost.  Nice pickup by the A's. 
 
The only reason I could think of is Jon Daniels feels he has his speedy OF type in Leonys Martin, Gentry was a duplicate and they felt more strongly about replacing Cruz's power - hence choo/fielder for a boatload of cash.  The Rangers did their speed experiment last year and it didn't quite get them to the playoffs. 
 
Daniels, in addition to urgently trying to get that ring, is also mending fences with the fan base to a degree over the Nolan Ryan departure. I think they'll regret this within 2 years. 
 
Agreed that they didn't quite get to the playoffs, but are they sure they didn't do a Ron Washington experiment?