September MLB Thread
- Thread starter E5 Yaz
- Start date
Or 5 — yep. They have tie breaker over Texas.
I don’t know what happens if Texas, Houston and Toronto finish with 90. I think Houston gets division then it goes to H2H between Toronto and Texas for 5 and 6.
Rangers 90-71 - clinch division with win or Astros loss
Blue Jays 89-72 - clinched WC spot
Astros 89-72 - clinch division with win and Rangers loss
Mariners 87-74 - ELIMINATED
The Blue Jays won 4 out of 7 against the Astros, but only 1 of 7 against the Rangers. So their seed is still very much undecided even if they win tomorrow. That does mean the Rangers are locked in #5 if they fall out of the division title. Astros could still be #5 with Rangers + Astros win, Blue Jays loss.
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Marlins 84-76
D-backs 84-77
Cubs 83-78 - ELIMINATED
Reds 82-79 - ELIMINATED
The Marlins won 4 out of 6 against Arizona, so if they maintain their 1/2 game lead after tomorrow, they shouldn't have to go back to New York. I assume neither team cares that much if they face Philly or Milwaukee.
Blue Jays 89-72 - clinched WC spot
Astros 89-72 - clinch division with win and Rangers loss
Mariners 87-74 - ELIMINATED
The Blue Jays won 4 out of 7 against the Astros, but only 1 of 7 against the Rangers. So their seed is still very much undecided even if they win tomorrow. That does mean the Rangers are locked in #5 if they fall out of the division title. Astros could still be #5 with Rangers + Astros win, Blue Jays loss.
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Marlins 84-76
D-backs 84-77
Cubs 83-78 - ELIMINATED
Reds 82-79 - ELIMINATED
The Marlins won 4 out of 6 against Arizona, so if they maintain their 1/2 game lead after tomorrow, they shouldn't have to go back to New York. I assume neither team cares that much if they face Philly or Milwaukee.
Houston and Toronto have been very good road teams this year. I think at least one of Minny and Tampa will lose the opening round.
The Mariners have bad blood with the Astros. Think they will rollover for Texas tomorrow.
Random factoid: Cubs lost season series against Cleveland, LAD, Toronto, Washington, and Miami despite outscoring all five of them.
It’s insane how much better the Astros have been on the road than at home
Arizona and Miami in with -8 and -53 run differential. Cubs and Padres out with +100 and +103. Seattle out with +98.
The owner let down the Mariners this season, they needed two more legitimate bats, not a Teoscar Hernandez to add another 200 Ks to the lineup along with Eugenio Suarez. Was reported that the owner refused to increase payroll.
90 wins to get in is pretty high for six get in. We knew the AL would be tough, but 90 is a big number. Great year for the Mariners, just too much competition to overcome a shitty start.
Meanwhile the Padres have been in garbage time for a long while but the final standings might only have them two games out of the 6 seed. Hmmph.
I don't think so. Kelenic was putting up great numbers for about the first 6 weeks, but the rest of his season hasn't looked all that much better than prior years. And even during the hot streak he was still striking out a lot.
Why is a strike out worse than a ground ball out?
I'd say 8-10 on this list are pretty good hitters.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/history/leaders/_/breakdown/season/year/2023/sort/strikeouts
Olson, Riley, and Tork aren't bad either.
Some fascinating game theory for Houston’s last game:
If they win, they can still be the #2, #5 or #6 seed, depending on the TEX and TOR results.
If they lose, they are locked into #6, where they would play #3 MIN and then #2 TEX, who they recently swept in TEX by a combined 39-10 score. BAL/TB/TOR would all be on the other side, plus HOU has been much better on the road this year (50-30, 39-42 at home).
So if they win they have a shot at a better draw (#2) but also a much harder one (#5), I’d do my best to lose if I was them.
Also there’s precedent for defending champ HOU to be the #6 seeds and still somehow repeat, Verlander in the role of Hakeem.
If they win, they can still be the #2, #5 or #6 seed, depending on the TEX and TOR results.
If they lose, they are locked into #6, where they would play #3 MIN and then #2 TEX, who they recently swept in TEX by a combined 39-10 score. BAL/TB/TOR would all be on the other side, plus HOU has been much better on the road this year (50-30, 39-42 at home).
So if they win they have a shot at a better draw (#2) but also a much harder one (#5), I’d do my best to lose if I was them.
Also there’s precedent for defending champ HOU to be the #6 seeds and still somehow repeat, Verlander in the role of Hakeem.
What was the tweet?The person who runs the Marines social media accounts forgot to log out of the ol work Account before liking this tweet
Pretty much. They had a pretty clear need and they chose half-measures to address it, then when most of those didn’t work, they tried a different series of half-measures. And yeah, sure seems like the owner cheaped out on them. People have been shipping Ohtani and Seattle for a while, but I’m not buying their ability to win a bidding war with the Dodgers, Mets, or Giants. I did say elsewhere that they’re a logical team to take a shot on a year of Soto (maybe take on the Cronenworth deal?), but the Padres will probably hang on to him, too. So I don’t know where this leaves them, exactly.
So I’ll be fair and note that they did return a team similar to last year’s, and they’ll end up with a pretty similar record to last year, and most years that would get them into the playoffs. But it’s almost like they expected the AL to play out like it did last year, and they didn’t count on a) Texas being good or b) Houston being catchable.
But the two seed gets them a bye. I don’t care about matchups. You should never play a three game series you don’t have to on the road. Even if they win, they use pitchers to do it.
Edit — maybe they can score watch and if Texas is winning they may still have time to lose.
Yeah - every series is a chance to lose. So the fewer series the better.
Heh, this is almost word for word what my Astros fan friend said this AM. I just think it's fascinating, lose and you guarantee being on the better side, win and you're rolling the dice, could end up in a better position, the same position, or a worse position.
Yep:
“The Mariners were 47-48 (.494) before Jarred Kelenic broke his foot Kicking a water cooler
The Mariners went 32-16 (.666) in his absence
The Mariners have gone 8-9 (.470) and have been eliminated from Playoff contention since his return”
Trying to manipulate seeding is a fool's errand. Just do your best to make sure your whole roster is as rested and healthy as possible and your pitching is lined up. Last year 100-win teams had a record of 3-8 in the playoffs. Plus, everyone wanted to play the AL Central champs until the Rays scored one run in 24 innings against them.
MLB deserves a fiasco where 2 teams playing each other both need to lose to take advantage of the ridiculous, stupid seeding scheme. Is there a limit on how many IBB in a row you can order? What would happen in a baseball game if teams refused to get each other out?
You could almost have it today with TB/TOR but I don’t think the difference between TOR/HOU/TX is enough to make a mockery of the game over. They should do it just to prove a point, though.
You could almost have it today with TB/TOR but I don’t think the difference between TOR/HOU/TX is enough to make a mockery of the game over. They should do it just to prove a point, though.
Do you have reasons to believe that their fiasco of a season was his fault? I'm just asking, b/c I don't know.
I know it's been reported that Showalter had mellowed out over the years, but historically, players have rejoiced upon his exit.
Arizona is resting their best bats today, but they still look awful. They're lucky they got hot against the Cubs and Reds pitching staff ran out of gas, or they'd probably be out.
Meanwhile Texas will have to win today.
Meanwhile Texas will have to win today.
Yeah it has seemed very likely since Stearns got hired that Craig Counsell would be moving to Queens.
Acuna with one token at-bat today, finishes the year with 41 HR, 73 SB and 149 runs scored (most in 23 years).
Joey Votto ejected after arguing a strikeout.
With Angel Hernandez umping the Tigers/Guards game, I fear the same thing happening to Tito (at least Hernandez isn't behind the plate today, but that's never limited his incompetence).
With Angel Hernandez umping the Tigers/Guards game, I fear the same thing happening to Tito (at least Hernandez isn't behind the plate today, but that's never limited his incompetence).
According to a Mariners beat guy Kirby has been playing around with a knuckleball since spring training, but I imagine it may have been. A fitting day for anyone to throw one if they can.
George is a good dude. I don't know if he has had any interaction with Wake at any point, but I wouldn't put it past him doing this as a tribute. It was the first pitch of the game, which makes me lean toward the affirmative. Wasn't like he was saving it to break it out in some high leverage situation or something.
Miggy walks in what's likely his last trip to the plate... de los Santos got booed, but had just entered the game and couldn't find the plate. Cabrera was the only guy who couldn't figure out Giolito, so he struck out twice and hit an infield pop-up in his other at-bats. And now a double-play sends him to the dugout.
Lucas Giolito is what I wish on my worst enemy. I hope a team I hate pays him a lot this winter. His stint in Cleveland was worse than Syndergaard's.
Lucas Giolito is what I wish on my worst enemy. I hope a team I hate pays him a lot this winter. His stint in Cleveland was worse than Syndergaard's.