So the best hope of keeping the Cardinals out rests with the second-place NL East team. Got it.
September MLB Thread
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
Reds have six left against the Pirates and three against the Nats, plus three against a White Sox team that might be in cruise control at that point. So they still have at least a puncher's chance.
This Padres collapse reminds me of the 2006 Sox. Their core is still great and they get Clevinger back next year, could see a quality team like the 2007 Sox next year for them.
Oh, absolutely. Get a new manager in there, get Clevinger back, hope the adjustments Snell made stick, and they'll be terrifying once again.
A Darvish/Clevinger/Snell/Musgrove rotation supplemented by Paddack/Gore/etc. will remain top 2/3 in MLB. And if Tatis comes back healthy from his surgery that's another 30 games of probably the best position player in the game.
Oakland has put together a 5 game win streak. Tied in the loss column with NY. 7 games left vs a tough Seattle team though.
Rays lost 2 close ones to DET. They need to get their act together. It would be tough to blow a 6.5 game lead with 12 to play, but not impossible. Especially given how easy the Sox schedule is compared to theirs. Also the Sox stealing their color scheme, and apparently their mojo along with it, is a diabolical maneuver by Chaim.
Sox would need to cut it to 4 this week to have a legit chance. That would require Bos going 4-1 against the Mets and Yankees whilst the Rays either get swept by Jays and 2-1 vs Miami or 1-2 against both. Not impossible but I'd score it 9:1 against (10%).
If that did happen, however, we'd have the Rays travelling to Houston and the Toilet for their final 6 games whilst the Sox go to Baltimore and DC. Boston would still probably need to sweep the final 2 series for there to be a chance at catching them, but it'd be a chance!
Overall odds: 50:1
edit: 538 has the Rays at 99% to win the division and Boston <1%; fangraphs have then at 98.4% and 0.9% respectively with the Jays coming in at 0.7% and Yankees 0.1%
Just because the comparison is inevitable, with the same number of games left in 2011 (11), Tampa was only 3 back of the Sox for the wildcard spot they took after game 162. The Rays went 7-4 to the Sox 3-8 to make up the difference.
The absolute worst the Sox can do now and still potentially have a mathematical shot is 6-5. That would give them a tie for the division if the Rays lost their remaining 12 games, and the tiebreaker is a game 163 at the Trop. I have my doubts that the Rays aren't going to win at least one more game this season, especially with a series against the Marlins and the possibility that Houston will have things wrapped up by next week and not put up their best fight.
Still rooting for the Rays this series so the WC game can be at Fenway / there's a chance the Yanks make it - I think I want the Yanks over the Jays in a WC game, knock on wood.
If the Sox can’t beat the Jays in a one game play in, then they don’t deserve to go any farther. But damn, I’ll root for that 100 out of 100 times vs rooting for the MFYs to be our opponent. The sooner YED comes, the better. End of story.
Any idea about the TV scheduling for MLB playoffs? Right now, certain games are listed as "FS1 or MLBN." Does that mean the game will be shown on both networks or that some decision will be made at some point to use one or the other?
https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule
https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule
There would be no shame in getting ousted by this version of Robbie Ray and that lineup. This quote makes no sense.
Cole, who they have knocked around a bit this year, and this famished Yankee lineup?
But yes, YED and all.
And you REALLY don't suggest that you'd rather play the Yankees in a one-game playoff, even if they're stumbling to the finish line
Good analysis piece in FanGraphs showing the Yanks relative failure against the Os (11-8) to be a determining factor in the standings at this point. Later in the article, the author notes that the Yankees currently have losing records against the rest of the AL East (6-10 vs Sox and Jays, 7-9 vs Rays). Overall 30-37 against the AL East; that's the difference in the division right there.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-playoff-race-thats-for-the-birds-the-ones-in-baltimore/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-playoff-race-thats-for-the-birds-the-ones-in-baltimore/
Not content with playing spoiler in the AL wild card, the Orioles are currently beating the Phillies.
Shane Baz certainly looks like he belongs. 5 IP, 2 hits (both solo HR), 0 BB, 5 K on 65 pitches.
Rays up 3-2 on Jays heading into the 6th.
Rays up 3-2 on Jays heading into the 6th.
Jon Lester held the Brewers to 2 runs on 3 hits (2 solo homers) over 6 innings. Cards up 4-2, bottom 7.
John Means is a good pitcher, but you can’t lose to the Orioles at home if you’re the Phillies. Bad loss.
Anthony Gose outfielder for Toronto and Detroit for 372 games and 657 career OPS last played MLB in 2016.
Pitching debut in relief for 1.2 innings today for Cleveland at 32 years old. (1 ER, 1K).
Pitching debut in relief for 1.2 innings today for Cleveland at 32 years old. (1 ER, 1K).
Yanks win, Cards win, Phillies lose. Reds leading Pirates. Jays bases loaded, two outs, down 2.
Jays' Breyvic Valera takes strike 3 down the middle after what should have been called ball four was instead called a strike on 3-1. Rays win 6-4.
Robo-umps can't come soon enough.
Robo-umps can't come soon enough.
Baz will prob be Game 3 starter for the playoffs. Could be Game 2 depending on how next couple of starts go.
Has a team ever started all rookies in their playoff rotation?
Has a team ever started all rookies in their playoff rotation?
The ump totally jobbed the Jays. Tonight couldn't have worked out better for the Yankees, sadly.
Cardinals with a firm grip on the #2 NL Wild Card. By 3 games if the Reds win (up 2 batting in the bottom 7). Cards have won nine straight; they're +11 on the year. So played .500 for five months, and now making up all that ground on the backstretch. Helps that the Padres have fallen into a blackhole and nobody else (Reds, Phillies, Mets) stepped up.
Yeah the A's/Mariners aren't going to be a threat for WC2 so Jays have to keep winning.
Jayce Tingler is gone the second the last out is recorded. All those massive spends for a .500 team.
I'm kind of shocked Cleveland promoted him, let alone that they've bothered to keep him around as a 3-year project. He's… not good. 88 walks in 98.1 pro innings.
Cardinals are 11-1 in their last 12 games, dating back to Sept 8. Before that they had lost four straight to the Brewers and Dodgers. On the 8th, Wainwright held the Dodgers to two runs over eight innings and the Cards took a 5-2 lead into the top of the ninth. They sent Wainwright out to try to get the complete game but he only got one out and the Dodgers got to him for three singles and a run. The Cards' reliever got a fly ball (sac fly) and a K to end it.
They beat the Dodgers 2-1 the next day, then took two of three from the Reds, swept three from the Mets, and swept three from the Padres (all but burying them). Now they've won the first of four at Milwaukee. After that they've got three at the Cubs, three at home vs the Brewers, and three at home vs the Cubs.
The Reds, who now lead the Pirates 9-5 in the bottom of the 8th (let's call this a win) are 3 back. Their remaining schedule is two at home vs Pirates, 4 at home vs Nats, 2 at the White Sox, and three at Pittsburgh. Not terribly tough. If they can take care of business and get some help from the Brewers against the Cardinals, they've got a shot. But they're limping down the stretch, having lost every series so far in September (1-2 vs Det, 1-2 @ Cubs, 1-2 @ StL, 1-2 @ Pit, 1-2 vs LAD). So taking care of business will require a big turnaround.
They beat the Dodgers 2-1 the next day, then took two of three from the Reds, swept three from the Mets, and swept three from the Padres (all but burying them). Now they've won the first of four at Milwaukee. After that they've got three at the Cubs, three at home vs the Brewers, and three at home vs the Cubs.
The Reds, who now lead the Pirates 9-5 in the bottom of the 8th (let's call this a win) are 3 back. Their remaining schedule is two at home vs Pirates, 4 at home vs Nats, 2 at the White Sox, and three at Pittsburgh. Not terribly tough. If they can take care of business and get some help from the Brewers against the Cardinals, they've got a shot. But they're limping down the stretch, having lost every series so far in September (1-2 vs Det, 1-2 @ Cubs, 1-2 @ StL, 1-2 @ Pit, 1-2 vs LAD). So taking care of business will require a big turnaround.
The Brewers magic number to clinch the division is 3. The magic number to clinch a better record than the NL East winner is 2. So Milwaukee will have nothing to play for in that series vs St. Louis next week. They can rest guys, etc. Makes the series a little easier for the Cardinals.
I’m not so sure — he throws 100 and struck out 49 in 33 IP at AAA with a 3.55 ERA, and he’s “only” 31.
As teams scramble to find “the next Robbie Ray” after he wins the Cy Young this season (i.e. a guy with talent but no control who can be fixed) I feel like Gose (while obviously not a starter) will get some attention.
I've seen him pitch several times in AA and spring training and it almost always ended in another reliever entering mid-inning to try to save the team from the jam Gose created. With all the players Cleveland needs to add to the 40-man roster this winter, I don't see how he sticks around. I think this was more of just a nice reward to the guy to give him a few MLB innings over the last couple weeks of the season, and good luck to whatever team wants to give him a minor league deal over the off-season.
Blue Jays not happy with the Rays.
View: https://twitter.com/arashmadani/status/1440435706371788806?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/arashmadani/status/1440435706371788806?s=21