Sellers?

tbrep · Jun 15, 2013

Trading Rivera (perhaps the classiest Yankee of all time) during his farewell year is something Cashman would not have even dreamt of, however logical it may be baseball-wise.

Regardless, the selling talk is way too premature. NY are 7 games above .500 with reinforcements coming in the form of Granderson and maybe Jeter/Arod (though the latter seem dubious). And they're exactly 1 GB Texas in the race for the second wilcard spot.

To be honest, as a Rays fan, I like their chances of a playoff spot more than TB's. They have a much better bullpen and serviceable starting pitching to compensate for a poor (but likely to improve) offense.

tbrep · Jun 15, 2013

Yeah, fair enough. If your idea of going somewhere is a deep playoff run (and not merely reaching the playoffs), then that does seem very unlikely.

Pearl Wilson · Jun 15, 2013

It seems to me that the Tigers would typically prefer a solution to their closer problem that involves money rather than prospects. How realistic that is I do not know. If prospects is the only price anyone will accept, they could find a cheaper deal than Rondon I would think?

That is an amazing idea however. As a Tiger fan who like everyone is frustrated with the closer situation, the thought never entered my mind.

Bigpupp · Jun 15, 2013

How likely is it that Rivera would agree to this trade anyway? I would think the benefits or completing his farewell tour and finishing out his career with one team would outweigh whatever small chance he would gain ay winning (another) ring.

MakMan44 · Jun 15, 2013

How damaging would it be to the fan base though?

Brohamer of the Gods · Jun 15, 2013

Why would Rivera care about helping the Yankees long term? This isn't like a QB restructuring a contract to get better talent around him. I think we would all be surprised at just how little players care about the team once the checks stop coming in. Also, I think the whole mystique crap makes him and Jeeter untradeable. Finally, unlike Ray Bourque, Mo has his rings and Detriot is far from a lock to make the World Series, never mind win it. Perhaps they could trade him to the Miami Heat.

Brohamer of the Gods · Jun 15, 2013

On the other hand, there is at least this rumor floating around

http://fansided.com/2013/06/14/mlb-trade-rumors-detroit-tigers-want-philadelphia-phillies-jonathan-papelbon/

terrynever · Jun 15, 2013

Yeah, and Cashman isn't trading Rivera unless he has a death wish. But it is an interesting concept, the type of idea those lazy sports writers used to dream up to fill pages and sell newspapers!

E5 Yaz · Jun 15, 2013

jon abbey said:
Even if they squeeze into the playoffs, they're not going anywhere, especially with the new wild card format (roughly a 50 percent chance you are done after one game).

Actually, I think it's exactly, not roughly, a 50 percent chance of being done after one game

E5 Yaz · Jun 15, 2013

jon abbey said:
Well, there's home field advantage, SP strength, every MLB game isn't a precise tossup.

I tend to think of things in absolutes. While those factors might give one team an edge, or cancel each other out, at the end of the day you're either going to win or lose a one-game playoff

derekson · Jun 15, 2013

The only real piece the Yankees could realistically sell on is probably Kuroda. Not sure how much you'd get back for a SP rental though. Maybe Hughes too, but probably even less return there unless its a team that plans to sign him to an extension.

Sox and Rocks · Jun 15, 2013

Well, I can think of one other potential contender that could possibly use a closer; after all, this team is in first place in a tough division, but has lost one closer already this year to Tommy John surgery, and the other closer isn't exactly dominating...

Sampo Gida · Jun 15, 2013

If you are going to be sellers think big, Cano.

This team will need a 3-5 year rebuilding period unless they go wild signing top quality free agents which seems unlikely given all the money tied up on stars past their prime. No sense tying up that money for a guy who will be in decline after the 3-5 year rebuilding period.

My justification for the 3-5 yr rebuilding period is Jeter is likely finished as a SS. Arod may be facing a 100 game suspension and it's questionable he will ever be an offensive force again, Tex is in rapid decline, Granderson is likely gone as a FA and you are left with Ichiro and Wells, Gardner and some position prospects that are not all that exciting.

For starting pitching cc is in decline, Pettitte, Kuroda and Hughes are probably gone, and while there is hope with Pineda and some of the prospects if they are healthy , prospects are always uncertain.

Rivera will be gone , and thankfully so will Joba, but you don't really need a great bullpen when you don't have much offense or starting pitching.
The bullpen is the least of their problems since that's the last piece you need to build.

HriniakPosterChild · Jun 16, 2013

E5 Yaz said:
I tend to think of things in absolutes. While those factors might give one team an edge, or cancel each other out, at the end of the day you're either going to win or lose a one-game playoff

"There's a 50/50 chance the sun will come up tomorrow--either it will or it won't." --HPC's high school stats teacher

Sox and Rocks · Jun 16, 2013

Cano is certainly the one chip they have to generate a significant return. Of course, his market is somewhat diminished as a free agent after the season.

If the Yanks really do want to go the rebuilding route, they are probably better off pairing an attractive piece like Cano, along with a semi-attractive piece like Rivera (assuming he would go for it) or Kuroda along with significant salary relief (ARod, Tex, etc.). This could result in solid prospects and, more importantly, significant salary relief that would allow for other additions (essentially, they need to explore a similar deal to what Boston did with LA last year, although a deal would probably be less likely this year; it is hard finding a team that would be willing to make a similar deal)

Sampo Gida · Jun 16, 2013

jon abbey said:
I could live with trading Cano if they could really get a big package, but that would be a much tougher sell to NY fans than moving Rivera for the last couple of months of his career, as it would signal a multi-year rebuilding process and not just this year. I will certainly agree that young building blocks are few and far between in the NY organization.

Maybe they think fans are dumb but it must be obvious to pretty much everyone in Ny that they either have to spend their way out of their jam or develop the farm system to grow their own talent, and given the state of the farm system at the high levels at this point , this will take time.

I think they should go the spending route myself and sign Cano and whomever else they can get but if they still want to keep payroll under 190 they better just blow it up and take the revenue hit for a few years until they can field a team with a new generation of home grown talent.

Idabomb333 · Jun 17, 2013

Supposing they could really 100% commit to selling at the deadline this year, is it conceivable they could get under the luxury tax threshold this year instead of next year? Is there enough payroll applied to guys that other teams would take, so that moving them off the books and paying someone else around the ML minimum for the final 1/3 of the season gets them under?

Idabomb333 · Jun 17, 2013

Papelbon's Poutine said:
It depends on who you think other teams would take. They'd need to move $60+M of AAV, so yeah if you think they can convince other teams to take ARod, Tex, Granderson and Youkilis, sure. Good luck with that.

I was thinking something more like Cano, Rivera, Kuroda, Granderson and wondering out loud how close that would get them. I also partly intended it as a rhetorical question to point out the fact that there's so much dead weight on their payroll.

derekson · Jun 17, 2013

The problem is that by the time they'd be trading anyone the season would already be half over. So prorating contracts at 50%, you'd need to get as far under the luxury tax line for the second half of the season as you were over it for the first half. And if the trades wait till the end of July, its 2/3 vs 1/3. There is absolutely no way the Yankees can possibly gut their payroll enough to get that far under the tax line for the second half of the season.

Sampo Gida · Jun 17, 2013

Idabomb333 said:
Supposing they could really 100% commit to selling at the deadline this year, is it conceivable they could get under the luxury tax threshold this year instead of next year? Is there enough payroll applied to guys that other teams would take, so that moving them off the books and paying someone else around the ML minimum for the final 1/3 of the season gets them under?

I doubt the Yankees care about getting under the luxury tax threshold this year since there are no significant revenue sharing rebates involved . The amount of rebates double in 2014. They never had a problem with the tax itself and even at 50% they are not over the 25 million they paid a couple of years ago.

The insurance they presumably have on Arod and Tex (WBC) and the money from the Yes deal , not to mention their humongous revenues should mean they have no pressing financial needs in 2013 and IMO their 2014 goal to be under the cap is simply greed on steroids.

Also, this may be their best chance at a playoff spot for a few years until they rebuild, and making the playoffs could reduce the pressure from the fan base over the gloomy outlook for 2014 and beyond

That said, with a payroll of 228 million per Cotts I don't think it is even possible to get under since the threshold is still at 178 and Much of the payroll is tied up with guys on the DL or not performing well, and in Arods case he may be looking at a 100 game suspension down the road as well. To get a trade done they would need to eat a lot of salary which won't help

Saints Rest · Jun 18, 2013

This is a Yankees team like many teams across sports that maintains a run of excellence thru the core's declining years without any restocking of the larders. Much of that has been fueled by years of gutting the farm to remain in GFIN status. As with many of those teams, the front office (and its fans) have two options:

Band-Aid approach (aka More of the Same) -- re-sign Cano, add a few more FA's, make a trade or two as buyers. Suffer through a few more years like this one of being a fringe playoff team, with little hope of getting to the ALCS, let alone the WS.
Blow It Up approach -- Become sellers this year. Avoid signing anyone who will cost a draft pick. Suffer through a couple of really down seasons with the hope of better things on the horizon.

I think the Yanks will/should wait another 3-4 weeks to see if this down streak is a true indication of the rest of the season or just one of those blips that happen, especially to a fringe playoff team.

That said, if they are really going to blow it up, it seems to me that Jeter, Rivera and Pettite are likely off-limits due to Mystique and Aura, while ARod if off-limits due to steroids and hips. But otherwise, I would have to say that there isn't a single player on their roster that they should be afraid to deal, including CC, who in my mind is the guy who could bring the most return, especially if the Yanks threw in a bit of cash.

(Question: If Team A adds money to a deal, theoretically to offset a players salary going forward, does that money count against the cap for Team A?)

glennhoffmania · Jun 18, 2013

That's assuming that teams will be lining up to pay CC $25 for three more years, and possibly four more years if his option vests.

glennhoffmania · Jun 18, 2013

That was more in response to Saints Rest, because I don't see CC bringing back much value unless NY included a ton of cash in the deal. Giving up some decent value for the right to pay CC $100m over the next four years doesn't make sense.

As for the Rivera idea, I would bet a significant amount of money that they don't even remotely consider trying to move him.

derekson · Jun 18, 2013

Well, if the Yankees want to move CC it'd have to be at the deadline. After this season he'll have 10/5 trade protection.

Saints Rest · Jun 18, 2013

glennhoffmania said:
That was more in response to Saints Rest, because I don't see CC bringing back much value unless NY included a ton of cash in the deal. Giving up some decent value for the right to pay CC $100m over the next four years doesn't make sense.

As for the Rivera idea, I would bet a significant amount of money that they don't even remotely consider trying to move him.

Which is exactly why I said "if the Yanks threw in some cash."

There has already been talk in the Papelbon thread on the main board about going after Cliff Lee. CC strikes me as a better deal than Cliff Lee if you are looking for a #1 quality pitcher.

If the Yanks threw in some cash, especially as a hedge agains the 2017 vesting option, I think you could see a fair bit of action.

Saints Rest · Jun 18, 2013

Better numbers? CC has had ERA+ ranging from 124-156 over the last 6 years, with a low this year of 104 (YTD); Lee is pretty similar with a range from 129 to 167 in that same span, and a much better YTD of 155. Last year, Lee 129, CC 124.

Better probability of staying healthy? Why? Because of his weight? They both are innings eaters with over 200 every year since 2008.

Contract is one year shorter but Lee's contract is for his age 35, 36, & 37 years (option season), while CC's is for his age 33, 34, 35 & 36 years (agn the latter being an option season).

I'm not sure who I would want with all things being equal, but my point is that if you think Lee is worth something, then CC is likely worth something similar, especially is the Yanks want to use their huge revenue advantage to "buy" prospects by subsidizing a good part of CC's contract. (Which is why I asked the question about luxury tax implications on a trade.) So if I'm a team looking to add a frontline starter, I'd be looking at both.

HriniakPosterChild · Jun 18, 2013

derekson said:
Well, if the Yankees want to move CC it'd have to be at the deadline. After this season he'll have 10/5 trade protection.

Cot's says he already has no-trade protection (but no more details than that).

nvalvo · Jun 19, 2013

If the team is really looking at a full rebuild, it probably won't be hard to convince him to waive it to go to, say, San Francisco, who would probably be interested.

Guero · Jun 19, 2013

Good for a thought experiment, but I can't see the Yanks being sellers. Still a bit too early in my opinion. The core vets won't be moved at all. CC would be a hard move due to cash. The likely players would probably be Hughes, Joba, and a healthy Granderson.

TomRicardo · Jun 19, 2013

Selling Rivera doesn't make sense financially (you can sell tickets even if you are collapsing in September with the Mo Farewell Tour).

In fact that would be a reason for the Yankees to be more inclined to sell.

Edit - The Yankees only have one more day off before the All Star break. They need to tread water. The ten games against the Orioles and Tampa Bay will make or break them.

Sampo Gida · Jul 16, 2013

jon abbey said:
Good piece by Joel Sherman today which explains why NY hasn't moved Hughes yet. They seem to be planning to make him a tender offer (around $13.8M), hoping he declines, and taking the draft pick. This seems pretty risky, but I can see the logic at least (he will still be just 27, and might be quite good in a bigger ballpark in the NL).

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/when_it_comes_to_hughes_deadline_0kZNohN4Cweeoudkl109jO

If I am Hughes I take the money and hope for a better year going into free agency. Good chance he would be traded after that, with the Yankees having to eat some of the salary.

MakMan44 · Jul 16, 2013

I can't believe Hughes is making over 7 million this season.

Anyway, I agree with JA. If he's healthy at the end of the year, I think he turns it down in favor of guaranteed years & money. For the Yankees to trade him, someone is going to have to exceed the value of a comp pick.

LeoCarrillo · Jul 16, 2013

Even if he turns it down, Hughes needs a dancing partner -- a team willing to forfeit their first-round pick.

To my understanding, if that doesn't happen, Hughes would have to sign either a minor-league deal or wait until midseason before signing a big-league deal. This was the Lohse Limbo (limbo as in a state of neither-nor, not the Club Med backbend contest) that nearly happened last offseason. And Lohse '12 >>>> Hughes '13.

I don't think Hughes would risk it. So if you don't want Hughes in 2014, I wouldn't make the $14M QO.

derekson · Jul 16, 2013

I really can't see them risking a QO to Hughes with the $189M plan even a possible consideration. Hell, even outside that I don't know that they'd really risk a QO for him. Even if he finds a team that's interested, he's probably only looking at a deal of something like 3 years at $10M per with how he's performed since becoming a full-time starting pitcher. Why would he turn down a guaranteed one year deal for ~50% of that total money for the chance to try the market with the loss of a draft pick weighing him down? I would be shocked to see the Yankees offer Hughes the QO.

I think Granderson almost certainly gets a QO though.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jul 16, 2013

If the Yankees are looking to move on from Hughes, they're better off trading him than offering a QO and hoping he declines. Hughes is young enough that he could still bring back a decent return (a high minors lottery ticket or two). I would think they could get a better return than the White Sox did for Thornton and Jacobs would have been a nice piece to add to the Yankees' farm system. Any such prospect is probably going to be a better bet to eventually make the majors than whatever draft pick they get from the team that signs him after a QO, assuming Hughes turns it down and another team is willing to part with a pick in the first place.

Beyond that, Joba is going to bring back nothing of value, but the talk of CC and Cano is interesting. I don't think the Yankees can afford the PR hit of unloading their top two talents, though. Rebuilding is one thing, but actively dismantling the team might be a step too far for them to consider. Even still, that might be the best approach they can take long term. Sabathia would bring back a very nice return, as would Cano. They could restock their farm system in a hurry with those two moves. Add in a couple of nice lottery ticket high minors prospects for a Hughes trade, and what they could get back if they moved Granderson, and the window for rebuilding could be shortened considerably.

If I was a Yankees fan, I'd probably be hoping for a fire sale. Jeter and Rivera aren't going anywhere, and Mo only has a few months left anyway. Jeter is probably playing a few more years, hopefully at 1st base or DH for the most part. He'll retire a Yankee at some point. After that, the best moveable assets are Teixeira (who will be tough to move before he gets healthy again), Kuroda as a rental, and Gardner as a great fielding decent bat outfielder.

Build around Nunez, Nova, Phelps, Robertson, Logan and Claiborne and hope that Mason Williams, Tyler Austin and Gary Sanchez pan out. Filling in the farm around those guys with trades of some of the guys above seems like the quickest path back to being a perennial contender again.

And with the money they'll save by moving some of those contracts (or more likely, parts of those contracts) and the ability to spend money like the Yankees again after 2014, they can target some of the more attractive names on the 2015 free agent market like Homer Bailey (will be 29), Billy Butler (will be 29 as well), Pablo Sandoval (29), Asdrubal Cabrera (29), Brett Anderson (will be 27), Johnny Cueto (29), Yovanni Gallardo (29), Clayton Kershaw (27), Chris Volstad (28), ect ect.

Of course, looking at the 2015 free agent market, it's appalling how few position players are going to be 30 or older. Butler, Sandoval and Asdrubal Cabrera are the only three. Regardless, if I could see the Yankees having the balls to put their most valuable assets on the trading block this year, I could see a pretty quick turn around for them on the rebuilding front. I'm guessing they don't move any of the major cogs of this year's team, though.

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