Secondary Revis(ted): Bedard Says Pats Can't Coach

[Super Nomario]

I took a look at how the Pats defended #1 receivers A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, and Calvin Johnson for FC: http://soshcentral.com/blog/2014/12/01/secondary-revisited-covering-number-one-receivers/
 
Questions I try to answer:

• Can Revis cover #1s?
• Is having long arms good for a corner?
• How do offenses scheme to get guys open against Browner and Revis?

Here's a taste: 

 
 

 

[IdiotKicker]

Dave, this is really awesome stuff here. Curious to see what your thoughts are once you get a chance to look at yesterday's game tape. Most places are saying that aside from the touchdown (which was partly McCourty's fault), Revis had a great game, but I'm interested to see what you think.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Yep. Good stuff.
 
It seemed that, against the Packers, they lined Revis up on Cobb until they got into the redzone, and then switched him to Nelson. One glaring exception was the Nelson/McCourty TD, but I could see them treating that drive like a redzone drive (trying to limit yards and tighten up on the final drive of the half).
 
I could be wrong, though. I was about 12 beers deep by the third quarter.

 

[mascho]

Great stuff DA.
 
Re: Revis/Cobb/Nelson, Bowen took a look at the Nelson TD. Puts a lot of it on McCourty, both pre-snap alignment and his route to the ballcarrier.
 
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2285009-tale-of-the-tape-for-nfl-week-13

 

[Super Nomario]

Yep. Good stuff.
 
It seemed that, against the Packers, they lined Revis up on Cobb until they got into the redzone, and then switched him to Nelson. One glaring exception was the Nelson/McCourty TD, but I could see them treating that drive like a redzone drive (trying to limit yards and tighten up on the final drive of the half).
 
I could be wrong, though. I was about 12 beers deep by the third quarter.

It seemed to me like they started with Browner on Nelson, Revis on Cobb, but then Ryan was struggling on Adams and they switched to Revis on Nelson, Arrington on Cobb (and presumably Browner on Adams). Later in the game Ryan was back out there and Revis was back on Cobb, so maybe they just switched up the matchups at points, or maybe adjusted based on formations.
 
PFF only publishes targets, but they have:
Cobb (11 targets): 6 Arrington, 2 Revis, 1 Ryan, 1 Chung, 1 Ninkovich
Adams (10): 7 Ryan, 2 Dennard, 1 Collins
Nelson (6): 5 Revis, 1 Browner
Boykin (2): 1 Arrington
 
They chart Browner with playing 74 snaps and only being targeted 3 times: the one on Nelson and 2 on Eddie Lacy.
 
 

Great stuff DA.
 
Re: Revis/Cobb/Nelson, Bowen took a look at the Nelson TD. Puts a lot of it on McCourty, both pre-snap alignment and his route to the ballcarrier.
 
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2285009-tale-of-the-tape-for-nfl-week-13

Yeah, I think that was mostly on McCourty, too. As far as pre-snap alignment, I wonder how much is McCourty and how much is the coaching staff dictating that, playing him really conservative off the ball to compensate for only having one deep safety. They definitely underestimated Nelson's speed - that dude is fast.

 

[kelpapa]

This gif is amazing.

 
Since Revis got here, people have said that he will actually run the receivers routes. I don't think that's ever stood out to me quite like this replay.

 

[Otis Foster]

This gif is amazing.

 
Since Revis got here, people have said that he will actually run the receivers routes. I don't think that's ever stood out to me quite like this replay.

 
Christ, his reaction time is incredible.Look at his footwork on the first stop of the stop-and-go.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

That is a thing a beauty. It's just cannot be done any better than that period.

 

[Super Nomario]

It seemed to me like they started with Browner on Nelson, Revis on Cobb, but then Ryan was struggling on Adams and they switched to Revis on Nelson, Arrington on Cobb (and presumably Browner on Adams). Later in the game Ryan was back out there and Revis was back on Cobb, so maybe they just switched up the matchups at points, or maybe adjusted based on formations.

Reiss' note: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4773367/patriots-third-quarter-review-rotating-fifth-dbs-shuffled-matchup-game
 

 
1. Cornerback Kyle Arrington got up slowly after attempting to block a 40-yard field goal (9:34, wide left) and didn’t play on defense after that point. That once again changed the matchups in the game -- marking the third change at the nickelback spot -- as Arrington had been on Randall Cobb after entering on the fourth series of the game for Logan Ryan. But with Alfonzo Dennard replacing Arrington at that point, it led to the following change: Dennard took Davante Adams, Darrelle Revis moved back to Cobb and Brandon Browner checked Jordy Nelson. 
 
2. Dennard ended up playing 10 snaps, then was replaced by Ryan for parts of the final two drives of the game. That once again changed the matchups, serving as a reminder of how things often evolve over the course of the game. 

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

Bedard is tweeting that the presence of Browner and Revis is proof of what he has long observed: The Pats do a lousy job of teaching their CBs. My first thought was: Is it lousy teaching or a lack of talent? I'm interested in what our Xs and Os folks think about this. We've had a lot of complaints around here in the last 5 years or so about the inability of Pats DBs to get their heads around and play the ball. Is Bedard onto something? I'm hoping he's going to show his work at some point, although I'm skeptical he will.

https://twitter.com/gregabedard/status/539602938944311296

 

[snowmanny]

One could play this game all day.  
 
Watching outsider Pedro, it's pretty obvious the Red Sox don't know how to teach pitching.
 
Watching outsider Garnett, it's pretty clear Doc Rivers had no clue how to teach defense to Davis and Perkins.

 

[Gambler7]

I tend to agree with him. I think what backs up his point is the regression of guys after their first year. McCourty, Dennard, Ryan, etc. They all regressed after playing pretty well their first year. It is odd.

 

[Stitch01]

I have no idea whether he's right but that's pretty terrible evidence to suppormt it

 

[JerBear]

This just seems like more Bedard throwing stuff against the wall and hoping it sticks.
 
See: The OLine hate Degugs earlier this year.
 
I'm not surprised that Browner and Revis are better than Ryan and Dennard...they are better.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I tend to agree with him. I think what backs up his point is the regression of guys after their first year. McCourty, Dennard, Ryan, etc. They all regressed after playing pretty well their first year. It is odd.

 
What's the magic about year one to year two?  Wouldn't these players suck right away, or regress throughout the first season, if BB and his staff can't teach proper technique?
 
I mean, he says it's 'obvious' but doesn't offers the best CB on the planet and a proven, good corner as his data points.  And what about Asante Samuel?

 

[triniSox]

Bedard has been long vocal against Josh Boyer. He's had valid points but I think this particular argument is weak.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Bedard is tweeting that the presence of Browner and Revis is proof of what he has long observed: The Pats do a lousy job of teaching their CBs. My first thought was: Is it lousy teaching or a lack of talent? I'm interested in what our Xs and Os folks think about this. We've had a lot of complaints around here in the last 5 years or so about the inability of Pats DBs to get their heads around and play the ball. Is Bedard onto something? I'm hoping he's going to show his work at some point, although I'm skeptical he will.

https://twitter.com/gregabedard/status/539602938944311296

 
Pats have drafted poor at the CB other than Law/Samuel (McCourty flamed out after stellar rookie year).
 
How well is Butler performing? Terrence Wheatley? Guss Scott? Brock Williams? Ras-I Dowling? All 2nd or 3rd round picks. Have they been "coached up" elsewhere? Not sure if it's just coaching that's failing them. 
 
P.S. Then again, look at how many corners flame out in general -- it's not easy (slightly older article here: http://sethbeccard.wordpress.com/2011/01/17/cornerbacks-and-the-nfl-draft/). Recent examples: Dee Milliner (#9 pick), Morris Claiborne (#6 pick). 

 

[crystalline]

If Bedard's argument is that Revis and Browner have better technique than homegrown CBs, then that argument is moronic.

Has he noticed that Revis uses exactly the same technique as every other Pats CB? When he is chasing a receiver he doesn't turn his head, he plays the ball and tries to pull it out.

The pats have decided that's the CB technique that's best. Given Belichick's clear mastery of things we can see like clock management and choosing to kick to start games, I am going to say that's probably the CB technique that best limits the opposing offense.

 

[Silverdude2167]

So do the Jets know how to teach CB technique because they drafted Revis and had Cromartie or do they suck at it because of Kyle Wilson and Dee Milliner?

 

[Myt1]

To be fair, watching the technique of Randy Moss and then the homegrown WRs made it pretty clear that the Patriots sucked at teaching WR technique, too.
 
Browner and Revis couldn't be more different to my eyes, too.  Revis can basically straddle the receiver's leg and keep an arm on either side of his body without making much contact at all.  It's like he's doing the hoary old negotiation chestnut mirroring technique.  Browner is completely different; a harder style.

 

[soxfan121]

I tend to agree with him. I think what backs up his point is the regression of guys after their first year. McCourty, Dennard, Ryan, etc. They all regressed after playing pretty well their first year. It is odd.

 
It is odd. Do you have a citation or ... something?

 

[kolbitr]

While I agree that twitter is not a medium for complex argument, I tend to give Bedard some benefit of the doubt. He's not infallible, and he can have bêtes noires, but he watches a lot of film, and is very educated on football. I'd be curious to hear from our experts on football central, as to whether there are fundamental differences in technique between Revis, Browner, and "homegrown" DBs. Certainly, one could point to Revis as an outlier in terms of talent...but is Boyer to blame for poor technique? Or is it more complex than that.

 

[Tony C]

To be fair, watching the technique of Randy Moss and then the homegrown WRs made it pretty clear that the Patriots sucked at teaching WR technique, too.

 
Look at the positive side, watching the technique of Brady vs Geno Smith makes it clear we owe several Lombardis to the Pats QB coach....

 

[lexrageorge]

I tend to agree with him. I think what backs up his point is the regression of guys after their first year. McCourty, Dennard, Ryan, etc. They all regressed after playing pretty well their first year. It is odd.

Meanwhile, Arrington went from undrafted free agent to decent slot corner in the nickel/dime defense.  
 
McCourty's ceiling on draft day was "special teams contributor".  He had a number of INT's as a rookie, but his skills were always more suited to being a safety.  I guess the fact that the coaching staff helped him learn a position he never played before doesn't count.  
 
Dennard and Ryan are JAG's.  Some guys end up being JAG's no matter what you do.  Nothing wrong with that.  That's part of what happens when you're always drafting in the bottom half of the draft rounds year after year.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Has BbtL reached a consensus that Revis is a must sign? If so how far are you willing to go?

 

[soxfan121]

Has BbtL reached a consensus that Revis is a must sign? If so how far are you willing to go?

 
Both legs, one testicle and my left arm. Maybe even the ring and pinkie fingers on the right hand. And if he really needs it, an ear. 

 

[Ed Hillel]

Has BbtL reached a consensus that Revis is a must sign? If so how far are you willing to go?

 
It's too bad that Revis is getting older, because I'd be happy with a deal around 3/50 fully guaranteed, but I'm not sure he'd take it at this age. He probably just wants the most guaranteed now, regardless of years.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Has BbtL reached a consensus that Revis is a must sign? If so how far are you willing to go?

Pretty damn far. I think Pats fans should be prepared for any outcome though, as Revis has absolutely shown a willingness to play hardball for top dollar in the past and he has a ton of leverage given that, without a restructure, the Pats will either have to cut him or take a $25M cap hit to keep him.

 

[tims4wins]

 
It's too bad that Revis is getting older, because I'd be happy with a deal around 3/50 fully guaranteed, but I'm not sure he'd take it at this age. He probably just wants the most guaranteed now, regardless of years.

 
Given his age I don't think 3/$50M fully guaranteed is out of the realm of possibilities. That's a pretty good payday for a corner in his 30s.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Pretty damn far. I think Pats fans should be prepared for any outcome though, as Revis has absolutely shown a willingness to play hardball for top dollar in the past and he has a ton of leverage given that, without a restructure, the Pats will either have to cut him or take a $25M cap hit to keep him.

 
Well, 5 is going to be on the cap regardless, as it's just part of this year's salary deferred. I'm not going to lie that there have been points this season where I've seriously considered if taking the option would be a bad idea. If you're willing to go 16-17 for long term, is 20 for one season a possibility? I'm guessing there's little to no chance of it happening, but the guy really is incredible on the field.

 

[pappymojo]

 
Both legs, one testicle and my left arm. Maybe even the ring and pinkie fingers on the right hand. And if he really needs it, an ear. 

 

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Is that from the movie Cloak and Dagger?

 

[pappymojo]

The Man from the South. 
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man_from_the_South

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Pretty damn far. I think Pats fans should be prepared for any outcome though, as Revis has absolutely shown a willingness to play hardball for top dollar in the past and he has a ton of leverage given that, without a restructure, the Pats will either have to cut him or take a $25M cap hit to keep him.

 
Indeed. I do not subscribe to some fans' view that Revis will take less than top market $ now he has seen the "Patriots Way". He obviously took a discount this year, but won't in 2015 and beyond. 
 
Pats can create room for a $20m cap player, and I want that to be Revis. And I believe Revis will take a $20/year 1- or 2-year contract in return. 
 
P.S. That means Mayo is gone unless he restructures: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/jerod-mayo/

 

[IdiotKicker]

Revis, Brady, and Gronk are the three most important players to this team for the next 2-3 years. Any move going forward must be done in order to make sure they are on the team. There really isn't anyone else who is close at this point, though Brady may slip off that list towards the end of that time period.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Revis, Brady, and Gronk are the three most important players to this team for the next 2-3 years. Any move going forward must be done in order to make sure they are on the team. There really isn't anyone else who is close at this point, though Brady may slip off that list towards the end of that time period.

 
Ironically, out of the three wouldn't Brady be the one who can afford to regress a bit and still have Pats be a SB contender as long as Revis and Gronk are healthy?
 
Edit: sorry for the tortured sentence there.

 

[IdiotKicker]

 
Ironically, out of the three wouldn't Brady be the one who can afford to regress a bit and still have Pats be a SB contender as long as Revis and Gronk are healthy?
 
Edit: sorry for the tortured sentence there.

 
At this point, yes. The rest of the roster, while composed of skilled players, is relatively fungible. With those three players, you are talking about generational-level talents, two of whom are in their prime, and one who is starting to show some small signs of decline. The rest of the roster can be replaced with moderately-priced free agents (see LaFell, Edelman, Ninkovich, etc) and draft picks that grow into roles in a year or two (see Collins, Stork, Hightower).

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Well, 5 is going to be on the cap regardless, as it's just part of this year's salary deferred. I'm not going to lie that there have been points this season where I've seriously considered if taking the option would be a bad idea. If you're willing to go 16-17 for long term, is 20 for one season a possibility? I'm guessing there's little to no chance of it happening, but the guy really is incredible on the field.

Indeed. I do not subscribe to some fans' view that Revis will take less than top market $ now he has seen the "Patriots Way". He obviously took a discount this year, but won't in 2015 and beyond. 
 
Pats can create room for a $20m cap player, and I want that to be Revis. And I believe Revis will take a $20/year 1- or 2-year contract in return. 
 
P.S. That means Mayo is gone unless he restructures: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/jerod-mayo/

Yup, Revis is one of the few players in the league that is a true difference-maker. I can count on one hand the number of defensive players that I'd rather have, and still have a couple fingers left over. I don't think a $20M cap hit for that kind of player is beyond the pale, especially given that the cap is supposed to rise to around $150M next year.

The question is what will it take to get Revis to extend. The baseline assumption is that the Pats will need to pay him about as much as he thinks he'll command in free agency, as I don't see any discounts being applied. Sherman got 4/56 and Peterson got 5/70. While each only had 10-12M fully guaranteed, their contracts are structured to create much larger effective guarantees (around $40M in the case of Peterson). My assumption is that we will need to pay Revis a higher AAV and a commensurate or higher effective guarantee to get him to accept a deal. We can probably go shorter on years, given that those guys were much younger when they signed their deals. So I actually think Ed's initial number of 3/50 is probably right in the ballpark, although something like 4/64 might be more realistic - say a $12M signing bonus and base salaries of $8M in 2015, $14M in 2016, $15M in 2017, and $15M in 2018, with the first year base fully guaranteed and the following bases getting guaranteed on the first day of the respective league year (this is how guarantees in both Sherman's and Peterson's contracts work). That essentially means its highly unlikely that the Patriots cut him before 2017 at the earliest and probably not until 2018, so Revis not only gets the highest AAV but also gets an effective guarantee of $34M and probably $49M. From the Patriots perspective, cap hits look like $16M (including the $5M from the previous contract signing bonus) in 2015, $17M in 2016, $18M in 2017, and $18M in 2018. That's a ton of money and cap damage to dole out but that's probably about what it will take.

 

[crystalline]

I took a look at how the Pats defended #1 receivers A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, and Calvin Johnson for FC: http://soshcentral.com/blog/2014/12/01/secondary-revisited-covering-number-one-receivers/
 
Questions I try to answer:

• Can Revis cover #1s?
• Is having long arms good for a corner?
• How do offenses scheme to get guys open against Browner and Revis?

Here's a taste: 
 
 
 

 
Cool stuff.  The two plays you chose of Browner on Johnson were plays where Johnson was able to beat the jam: one due to a stack and one because Johnson ran a very shallow cross.  I haven't seen the all-22 but I noticed that Browner was having success against Johnson mainly by nailing him at the line and disrupting the timing of the route.  Browner's physicality is a big plus.

 

[JerBear]

On the subject of Revis:
 

 
Revis embraces Patriots' approach. When a San Diego-based reporter shared the opinion that the Patriots have a mystique that makes them different, and how the club often does things uniquely compared to others, Revis was asked if he agrees with that thought. “Every organization has their own way of doing things," answered Revis, who has played with the Jets, Buccaneers and Patriots. "Now, being a part of this organization, things are different, just on how we pride on ourselves on trying to win each week, how we prepare, and how we go about ourselves as an organization. So I’m excited to be here, and just happy to be a part of a team that goes out there and gives their heart out every Sunday." 

 
Please sign him long term.  Please.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Did Mike Reiss take a shot at Bedard in his recap of Saturday's game?
 

Browner left the game in the third quarter with a knee injury and didn't return, but said after the game that he wouldn't miss any time. Ryan stepped in for him and hardly anyone noticed -- except for when he was delivering a big hit to jar a would-be completion free. Cornerbacks coach Josh Boyer must be proud. ... Arrington, playing as the primary slot option, was solid as well, further reflecting well on the players themselves and their development in the system.