Second Guesser's Club - They still have that hill in center

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
Dope
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Mar 16, 2005
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The gran facenda
Game 1: 8:10 EDT
Game 2: 4:10 EDT
Game 3: 2:10 EDT
 
[tablegrid= Probable Starters ] W L G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP John Lackey RHP 9 6 18 18 117.1 8.13 1.76 1 0.316 72.00% 46.90% 11.90% 3.84 3.34 3.09 Scott Feldman RHP 4 5 15 15 84 5.57 2.25 0.96 0.287 68.30% 47.10% 9.80% 3.86 4.38 4.39                                 Jake Peavy RHP 1 7 18 18 110.2 6.83 3.42 1.38 0.298 74.50% 39.20% 11.90% 4.64 4.82 4.47 Brett Oberholtzer LHP 2 7 11 11 63.2 6.79 2.40 0..71 0.332 68.2% 38.6% 5.7% 4.66 3.53 4.26                                 Clay Buchholz RHP 3 5 13 13 70.2 6.37 3.18 1.53 0.34 65.90% 42.00% 12.90% 6.11 5.1 4.58 Brad Peacock RHP 3 5 17 13 83.2 7.96 4.52 0.97 0.308 73% 40.7% 9.5% 4.30 4.30 4.35 [/tablegrid]
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
Dope
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Mar 16, 2005
23,325
The gran facenda
The kids are alright and Nap is back. Plus, no Drew today.
 
Holt SS
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Gomes LF
Bogaerts 3B
Ross C
Bradley Jr. CF
Betts RF
Peavy RHP
 

BosRedSox5

what's an original thought?
Sep 6, 2006
1,471
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Surprised to see JBJ get pushed back in the lineup after getting two hits last night, especially when this lineup has 4 righties in a row. Also surprised to see Vazquez not in the lineup when he had a bit of a coming out party last night. Let's just hope the Sox win on the back of a great performance by Peavy so we can fire up more trade interest. 
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
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ScubaSteveAvery said:
Farrell said Ross would catch Lester and Peavy going forward. That explains why Vazquez is not in the lineup tonight.
That kind of makes perfect sense.
 
Lester, for obvious reasons
 
Peavy, because of the eyesight thing and the difficulty of communicating with him on the mound. I wouldn't want a rookie to have to add that burden to his plate
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
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geoduck no quahog said:
That kind of makes perfect sense.
 
Lester, for obvious reasons
 
Peavy, because of the eyesight thing and the difficulty of communicating with him on the mound. I wouldn't want a rookie to have to add that burden to his plate
 
It also has the advantage of having the rookie have to learn fewer pitchers. He'll neither sit nor play in more than two consecutive games which seems to me like a good way to break in a new backstop.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
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Oct 19, 2008
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I hate to add that the rookie isn't learning the pitchers who won't be here next year...

Another day, another day Farrell leaves the starter in too long.

Peavy pitching with diminished stuff should not be asked to turn over the lineup again.

I am also completely baffled by the use of Miller as a LOOGY. Since he became a full time reliever he's got an OPS against of 602 vs. righties and 528 vs. lefties. The guy is a beast. There was no reason to take him out to have Tazawa pitch in a tie game.

Moreover, he's 29 years old; sign him. They'd be insane to give up this talent.
 

IdiotKicker

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Nov 21, 2005
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With regard to Miller, and I know we have this boatload of young starters waiting in the wings, and I know he hasn't started in forever, but do you think there should be the teeny tiniest consideration to looking at him as a starter again? It's obviously a stretch and not in comparable situations, but the jump in his numbers does look very similar to another big lefty's age 29 season:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsra05.shtml

I know it won't happen, but I'd love to see him get a chance in that role. And hopefully it would go better than the Bard transition.
 

Rasputin

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Chuck Z said:
With regard to Miller, and I know we have this boatload of young starters waiting in the wings, and I know he hasn't started in forever, but do you think there should be the teeny tiniest consideration to looking at him as a starter again? It's obviously a stretch and not in comparable situations, but the jump in his numbers does look very similar to another big lefty's age 29 season:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsra05.shtml

I know it won't happen, but I'd love to see him get a chance in that role. And hopefully it would go better than the Bard transition.
Hell no. I get uncomfortable when he faces a right-handed batter. Facing a whole lineup multiple times seems like just begging for trouble.
 

IdiotKicker

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Rasputin said:
Hell no. I get uncomfortable when he faces a right-handed batter. Facing a whole lineup multiple times seems like just begging for trouble.
I don't know, it's been two years since he had any type of split like that, and actually had a pretty strong reverse split last year. And he does like to hit RHH, I will give you that. But it's still a very tempting package.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Chuck Z said:
I don't know, it's been two years since he had any type of split like that, and actually had a pretty strong reverse split last year. And he does like to hit RHH, I will give you that. But it's still a very tempting package.
I'd be much more tempted to make him a closer than a starter.  He's finally found a way to use his talent, and I sure as hell wouldn't mess with it.
 

Adrian's Dome

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I think Miller's perfect role is as a guy that occasionally performs as a LOOGY, often performs as a 1-inning guy when he's looking at good matchups, and the "oh shit we need a strikeout right meow" kind of guy, which is mostly what he is at the moment, and he's flourishing. Yes to signing him, a very big "please don't" when it comes to messing with him.
 
After Bard, I never want to see another dominant reliever's comfort zone screwed with.
 

BosRedSox5

what's an original thought?
Sep 6, 2006
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Colorado Springs, Colorado
Chuck Z said:
I don't know, it's been two years since he had any type of split like that, and actually had a pretty strong reverse split last year. And he does like to hit RHH, I will give you that. But it's still a very tempting package.
 
If a guy is used as a LOOGY and they have reverse splits, couldn't you make the argument that the only right handed hitters they face are weak ones? You certainly wouldn't leave in a LOOGY against a RHB unless you were pretty sure he wasn't going to hurt you anyway. 
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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BosRedSox5 said:
 
If a guy is used as a LOOGY and they have reverse splits, couldn't you make the argument that the only right handed hitters they face are weak ones? You certainly wouldn't leave in a LOOGY against a RHB unless you were pretty sure he wasn't going to hurt you anyway. 
That's a good point, perhaps one of the data mavens here knows of a site that shows OPS relative to the OPS of the hitters that you faced, or some such statistic.

In the absence of that, I just note Junichi Tazawa's splits over the same period of time as Miller's splits above are 664 vs. lefties and 686 vs. righties. So, Miller has been superior to Tazawa over the past 3 years against both lefties and righties, yet they continue to use Tazawa as the primary set up man, and go to him over Miller against righthanders like in yesterday's 8th inning.

I hope they are rethinking that strategy as Miller's string of dominance continues to grow. Doing this work is just making me more and more convinced that Miller might be the second most important upcoming free agent negotiation after, obviously, Lester. He's 29 years old. Get it done, 4/$20 for sure, even 5/$30 I'd be good with.