Second Guesser's Club - The Twins

[absintheofmalaise]

Game 1: 6/16 7:10
Game 2: 6/17 7:10
Game 3: 6/18 1:35 MLBN
 
[tablegrid= Probable Starters ] W L G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP Kevin Correia RHP 3 7 13 13 72.1 4.73 1.87 1 0.336 63.10% 41.70% 7.70% 5.6 4.13 4.56 Rubby de la Rosa RHP 1 2 3 3 18.1 9.82 1.96 1.47 0.347 80.80% 51.90% 23.10% 3.93 3.68 2.48                                 Phil Hughes RHP 7 2 13 13 82.1 7.87 0.87 0.77 0.31 75.40% 33.30% 6.10% 3.17 2.77 3.46 Jon Lester LHP 7 7 14 14 92 9.68 2.35 0.78 0.339 71.20% 39.60% 8.80% 3.33 2.88 3.03                                 Kyle Gibson RHP 6 5 13 13 76 4.5 2.96 0.47 0.266 73.00% 54.80% 5.50% 3.55 3.76 4.32 John Lackey RHP 8 4 14 14 94.1 7.73 1.72 .76 .313 75.1% 45.8% 8.5% 3.24 3.04 3.23 [/tablegrid]

 

[absintheofmalaise]

[tablegrid= vs. RHP ] G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO HBP SF SH GDP AVG Brock Holt 30 82 89 26 21 3 1 1 1 8 6 0 12 0 1 0 0 0.317 A.J. Pierzynski 52 133 141 41 28 9 1 3 3 19 7 1 24 1 0 0 5 0.308 Xander Bogaerts 61 168 190 45 30 11 1 3 3 11 18 0 48 4 0 0 2 0.268 Mike Napoli 50 136 159 36 24 6 0 6 6 21 22 0 37 1 0 0 5 0.265 Dustin Pedroia 62 193 216 50 37 11 0 2 2 19 20 0 27 0 3 0 4 0.259 David Ortiz 61 159 186 39 23 6 0 10 10 27 27 12 29 0 0 0 1 0.245 Grady Sizemore 47 133 148 32 20 9 2 1 1 11 14 0 26 0 1 0 4 0.241 Daniel Nava 30 76 90 18 13 3 0 2 2 3 10 1 19 4 0 0 2 0.237 Jonathan Herrera 22 47 54 11 10 0 1 0 0 4 5 0 13 0 0 2 2 0.234 Jackie Bradley Jr 55 119 138 25 18 6 1 0 0 14 17 1 44 0 1 1 3 0.21 David Ross 21 42 44 7 4 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 14 0 0 0 0 0.167 Jonny Gomes 41 74 84 12 7 3 0 2 2 10 5 0 28 3 2 0 2 0.162 Stephen Drew 5 17 19 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 7 0 0 0 1 0.118 [/tablegrid]
 
[tablegrid= vs. RHP ] PA BB% K% BB/K OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+ Mike Napoli 159 13.80% 23.30% 0.59 0.371 0.441 0.812 0.176 0.323 23 6.2 0.363 128 A.J. Pierzynski 141 5.00% 17.00% 0.29 0.348 0.459 0.806 0.15 0.358 20 4.3 0.353 121 David Ortiz 186 14.50% 15.60% 0.93 0.355 0.472 0.827 0.226 0.242 25 4.4 0.343 114 Brock Holt 89 6.70% 13.50% 0.5 0.36 0.415 0.774 0.098 0.357 12 2 0.342 114 Xander Bogaerts 190 9.50% 25.30% 0.38 0.353 0.399 0.751 0.131 0.359 24 3.6 0.338 110 Daniel Nava 90 11.10% 21.10% 0.53 0.356 0.355 0.711 0.118 0.291 11 0.7 0.324 100 Dustin Pedroia 216 9.30% 12.50% 0.74 0.324 0.347 0.671 0.088 0.287 22 -1.9 0.302 85 Grady Sizemore 148 9.50% 17.60% 0.54 0.311 0.361 0.672 0.12 0.29 15 -1.5 0.3 84 Jonathan Herrera 54 9.30% 24.10% 0.38 0.308 0.277 0.584 0.043 0.324 4 -1.8 0.269 63 Jackie Bradley Jr 138 12.30% 31.90% 0.39 0.307 0.277 0.584 0.067 0.329 10 -4.8 0.268 62 Jonny Gomes 84 6.00% 33.30% 0.18 0.238 0.284 0.522 0.122 0.217 4 -4.9 0.238 41 David Ross 44 4.50% 31.80% 0.14 0.205 0.238 0.443 0.071 0.25 1 -3.9 0.2 15 Stephen Drew 19 10.50% 36.80% 0.29 0.211 0.118 0.328 0 0.2 0 -2.2 0.167 -8 [/tablegrid]

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The Twins have some of the worst pitching numbers in the league. They don't strike people out, and though they keep the ball in the park, they give up lots of doubles and triples. If this series can't wake up our bats, I'm not sure if anything can.
 
I'm calling a breakout series from JBJ.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Tonight's line up:
 
Holt LF
Bogaerts 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Nava RF
Drew SS
Pierzynski C
Bradley CF
De La Rosa RHP

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Twins:

Santana SS
Dozier 2B
Mauer 1B
Willingham LF
Morales DH
Arcia RF
Suzuki C
Escobar 3B
Fuld CF
Correia RHP

 

[PandaSox]

The Twins have some of the worst pitching numbers in the league. They don't strike people out, and though they keep the ball in the park, they give up lots of doubles and triples. If this series can't wake up our bats, I'm not sure if anything can.
 
I'm calling a breakout series from JBJ.

 
I don't disagree with this generally (oof - Gibson/Correia putting up some ugly defensive-independent numbers), but Hughes has quietly put together a great season - looks like the combination of moving out of the Nouveau Toilette and some changes to his repertoire have done some good - his ERA is actually 0.40 runs better than his FIP, and he's walking a microscopic 0.87 BB/9.

 

[glennhoffmania]

This offense is worse than anemic. If they can't put up more than one run against Correia then no amount of pitching is going to make a difference.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

He shut out the Jays for six last time out.

Smoke and mirrors, for sure, though.

 

[Rasputin]

This offense is worse than anemic. If they can't put up more than one run against Correia then no amount of pitching is going to make a difference.

 
This is perhps better said when we don't win just such a game.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
This is perhps better said when we don't win just such a game.

 
But it's not reasonable to expect to win enough such games to get back in the race.

 

[Puffy]

Honestly, they've been held to 2 runs or less in 7 out of the last 11 games. The offense has been terrible since the ATL and TB series with the exception of the surprise 10-run outburst the other night.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Tonight's line up:
 
Holt CF
Bogaerts 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Nava RF
Gomes LF
Drew SS
Ross C
Lester LHP

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Please second guess me on this: with the offense on semi-permanent vacation, why wouldn't you always have Ortiz (or Napoli, or others) bunt against the shift if there's no one in scoring position - to at least get base runners on (instead of ground balls to the re-aligned infield)?
 
1. Ortiz can't bunt
2. Statistics show the odds of an Ortiz xbh against the shift produce more potential runs than a slow Ortiz on 1b
3. It doesn't matter because the guys behind them can't drive anyone in
 
This team has a pitcher (who also apparently can't bunt) batting ninth. It's got to start playing more like a National League team.
 
Critique away

 

[williams_482]

Please second guess me on this: with the offense on semi-permanent vacation, why wouldn't you always have Ortiz (or Napoli, or others) bunt against the shift if there's no one in scoring position - to at least get base runners on (instead of ground balls to the re-aligned infield)?
 
1. Ortiz can't bunt
2. Statistics show the odds of an Ortiz xbh against the shift produce more potential runs than a slow Ortiz on 1b
3. It doesn't matter because the guys behind them can't drive anyone in
 
This team has a pitcher (who also apparently can't bunt) batting ninth. It's got to start playing more like a National League team.
 
Critique away

 
If Ortiz/Napoli/whoever can bunt effectively enough to beat the shift that way then they should, but it is entirely possible that they just are not good enough to make that worthwhile. 
 
Second, If we expect the team as a whole to continue being so terrible with the bats, Ortiz's and Napoli's power gives them a better chance to score runs without requiring much help from the bottom of the lineup. 

 

[ishmael]

Mujica?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Today's line up:
 
Holt RF
Bogaerts 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Nava LF
Pierzynski C
Drew SS
JBJ CF
Lackey RHP

 

[Al Zarilla]

Kyle Gibson has given up zero runs in three of his last four starts? Forget that, you're going down against the Red Sox offensive powerhouse. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
But it's not reasonable to expect to win enough such games to get back in the race.

 
Well, we just won three of them, so WTF do I know?
 
The Sox are now on a pace to score 626 runs. Only two Sox teams have scored fewer runs in a full season in the 162-game era: 1968 (the most offense-challenged season since the deadball era) and the last-place 1992 squad.
 
The lowest run total for a Sox team that made the postseason in the post-deadball era is 699 (1990). In order to score 699 runs at this point, we would have to average 4.7 runs per game the rest of the way (it's been 3.9 so far).

 

[Rasputin]

 
Well, we just won three of them, so WTF do I know?
 
The Sox are now on a pace to score 626 runs. Only two Sox teams have scored fewer runs in a full season in the 162-game era: 1968 (the most offense-challenged season since the deadball era) and the last-place 1992 squad.
 
The lowest run total for a Sox team that made the postseason in the post-deadball era is 699 (1990). In order to score 699 runs at this point, we would have to average 4.7 runs per game the rest of the way (it's been 3.9 so far).

 
We have actually won five of seven and seven of eleven. And, by the way, the two of the last five we've lost...both by one run.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

105 pitches through 9, I'd have liked to have seen Lackey come out for the 10th inning (and I said that to myself before Uehara gave up the home run).  I know "it's not done", but 105 pitches isn't that many, and Lackey's a horse, and it would have been great baseball to have seen that.
 
Meanwhile, 2:31 for a 10 inning (nearly) game just rocks.

 

[BosRedSox5]

 
Meanwhile, 2:31 for a 10 inning (nearly) game just rocks.

 
On one hand, I certainly agree... but when the Red Sox were an offensive juggernaut, grinding out at bats and scoring runs the games were much longer. I miss those days. 

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
We have actually won five of seven and seven of eleven. And, by the way, the two of the last five we've lost...both by one run.

 
But you agree that scoring 5 runs in a 3 game series will not usually lead to positive results, correct?  I mean this was a great series but there's no way it's sustainable.

 

[Rasputin]

 
But you agree that scoring 5 runs in a 3 game series will not usually lead to positive results, correct?  I mean this was a great series but there's no way it's sustainable.

Of course scoring less than two runs a game isn't a plan for success.