Second Guesser's Club - The Reds

absintheofmalaise

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Dope
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Mar 16, 2005
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Game 1: 5/6 7:10 Bailey RHP vs. Doubront LHP MLBN
Game 2: 5/7 7:10 Leake RHP vs. Peavy RHP
 
Bailey - 2-2 record with 6 starts. 34.1 IP. 5.50 ERA. 4.72 FIP. 3.27 xFIP. 8.65 K/9. 2.36 BB/9. 50.5 GB%. .385 BABIP
Leake - 2-3 record with 6 starts. 43.1 IP. 3.53 ERA. 4.45 FIP. 3.76 xFIP. 5.19 K/9. 1.66 BB/9. 57 GB%. .240 BABIP
 

Rudy's Curve

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Jul 4, 2006
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Why isn't Doubront being skipped? The Reds have struggled vs. LHP (.233/.293/.381), but he's been terrible and everyone else would still be on normal rest with the off days yesterday and Thursday.
 

joe dokes

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Rudy's Curve said:
Why isn't Doubront being skipped? The Reds have struggled vs. LHP (.233/.293/.381), but he's been terrible and everyone else would still be on normal rest with the off days yesterday and Thursday.
 
My guess would be that Farrell weighed Reds struggles v. Doubront's struggles vs. giving all the other starters an extra day. Lester's thrown 118, 122 and 112 in his last 3; Lackey 112, 111, 100; Peavy 113, 102, 113.
 
Pen is rested; another day off Thursday. Probably just givng Doubront a shot under optimal circumstances.
 
Might as well give them the extra days now. They play from May 20 to June 25 with only 1 day off and 3 road trips.
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
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The gran facenda
Line ups:
Sox
 
Pedroia 4
Victorino 9
Ortiz DH
Napoli 3
Sizemore 7
Bogaerts 6
Pierzynski 2
Middlebrooks 5
Bradley 8
Doubront LHP
 
Reds
 
Heisey 9
Votto 3
Phillips 4
Frazier 5
Ludwick 7
Schumaker 8
Cozart 6
Soto DH
Barnhart 2
Bailey RHP
 

pokey_reese

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I would mock them for having to run Soto out at DH and batting him in the 8-slot, but I know that I will get my comeuppance when our pitchers have to hit.  Still, our advantage at DH is big for this series, at least.
 
edit: for clarity
 

Reverend

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I really, really want Sizemore to return to some version of his own form. That doesn't mean I want them to keep pretending he belongs in the 5 slot.
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
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The gran facenda
[tablegrid= Offense ] PA Avg OBP Slg wOBA BABIP Pedroia 144 0.275 0.34 0.382 0.324 0.297 Victorino   40 0.257 0.325 0.4 0.32 0.346 Ortiz 131 0.241 0.344 0.446 0.34 0.247 Napoli   129 0.29 0.411 0.486 0.397 0.377 Sizemore   96 0.224 0.302 0.376 0.303 0.266 Bogaerts   127 0.28 0.394 0.374 0.352 0.377 Pierzynski 95 291 0.33 0.419 0.33 0.319 Middlebrooks   52 0.233 0.365 0.442 0.357 0.286 JBJ 108 0.215 0.324 0.333 0.301 0.323   Heisey   65 0.254 0.313 0.339 0.296 0.311 Votto   140 0.275 0.429 0.459 0.396 0.317 Phillips   129 0.279 0.299 0.377 0.299 0.337 Frazier   123 0.269 0.35 0.491 0.366 0.286 Ludwick   98 0.273 0.33 0.386 0.316 0.333 Schumaker   5 0 0 0 0 0 Cozart   110 0.194 0.239 0.291 0.239 0.226 Soto   13 0.167 0.154 0.25 0.167 0.182 Barnhart 16 0.214 0.214 0.429 0.279 0.182  [/tablegrid] 
 

Al Zarilla

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Rudy's Curve said:
Why isn't Doubront being skipped? The Reds have struggled vs. LHP (.233/.293/.381), but he's been terrible and everyone else would still be on normal rest with the off days yesterday and Thursday.
I would imagine Farrell wants to keep throwing his five starters out there and not risk one of them getting worse from rust. You may say how could Doubront get worse, but maybe he's ready to turn a corner.  Also, managers need to have patience...long season.
 

Reverend

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Al Zarilla said:
I would imagine Farrell wants to keep throwing his five starters out there and not risk one of them getting worse from rust. You may say how could Doubront get worse, but maybe he's ready to turn a corner.  Also, managers need to have patience...long season.
 
Right--in Farrell's coaching philosophy, the default setting is firmly on creating regularized expectations for the players. Routine struggles in April doesn't seem like something that would move the needle for him.
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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Reverend said:
 
Right--in Farrell's coaching philosophy, the default setting is firmly on creating regularized expectations for the players. Routine struggles in April doesn't seem like something that would move the needle for him.
Unless you have an option left.
 

trekfan55

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So Farrell is sometimes willing to PH for the catcher sometimes. Does he use a magic 8 ball to make a decision?
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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HriniakPosterChild said:
Should Andrew Miller be pitching some higher-leverage innings before they have played nine?
starting to look that way, especially if Taz needs some rest/help.  I hope the latter is not true and Tazawa gets back on track quickly, but even if Taz's recent struggles are just a blip, Miller looks very impressive so far
 

MakMan44

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I said in the GT, I don't understand giving Xander a day off when they had Monday off and don't play tomorrow.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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MakMan44 said:
I said in the GT, I don't understand giving Xander a day off when they had Monday off and don't play tomorrow.
 
Other than one pinch running spot, Jonathan Herrara hasn't seen the field in 10 days.  Sometimes it's about getting a bench player a game rather than specifically giving a starter a day off.
 

The Gray Eagle

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X looked lousy at the plate last night, wouldn't be surprised if he had a nagging injury or illness or something going on behind the scenes. Or maybe Farrell just thought he needed a couple days off for a little mental break.
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
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The gran facenda
Rob Bradford of WEEI had a very good article about the decisions that Farrell made last night. Anatomy of a Comeback. It also has good information on how WMB prepares for the pitchers he will see in a series. Thanks to ScubaSteveAvery for sending me the article.
 
 
That's when the wheels started turning.
The first move was for Red Sox manager John Farrell to bring on Chris Capuano to face lefty-hitting Roger Bernadina. The goal was to have the lefty reliever get through the inning, with Capuano representing the only member of the bullpen equipped to go multiple innings. 
But after a Bernadina run-scoring ground out put runners on second and third with one out, Farrell decided to prioritize keeping things within striking distance instead of worrying about extra innings. (Andrew Miller was not available for duty, with Craig Breslow, Edward Mujica, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa all unable to go more than a single frame.)
The strategy worked, with the sinkerballing Burke Badenhop coming on to get a pair of ground outs to keep the score at 3-2 heading into the eighth.
After an uneventful home half of the seventh, and a 1-2-3 eighth from Breslow, Farrell's decision-making once again was put on center stage.
With lefty Manny Parra on the hill for a second straight night, David Ortiz kicked things off in the home half of the eighth with a strikeout. He was followed by Mike Napoli's walk. Then Farrell decided to make a pivotal move, calling on Jonny Gomes to pinch-hit for Grady Sizemore. The thinking was to get Parra out of the game, bringing in righty J.J. Hoover, who would have to face back-to-back left-handed hitters A.J. Pierzynksi and Jackie Bradley after Gomes.
 
 
After the biggest surprise of the inning -- an intentional walk to Bradley (the first of his career) -- loaded the bases, it was Middlebrooks' turn to start strategizing.
"I watch video of all the relievers daily," Middlebrooks said. "I'll watch the starter and then I'll go through three or four passes of the relievers every day just to see movement. They throw a lot of curveballs, and with curveballs you don't chase, you see them out of their hand. So I knew I could go up there and be predominantly worried about his fastball."