Second Guesser's Club - T For Texas!

[absintheofmalaise]

All game times are EDT
 
Game 1: 8:05 Buchholz RHP vs. Darvish RHP
Game 2: 8:05 Lester LHP vs. Perez LHP
Game 3: 3:05 Lackey RHP vs. Ross Jr. RHP

 

[joyofsox]

Now that the Red Sox have finally raised their record once again up to .500 (17-17) - they are 2 GB the Orioles in the East - perhaps they can accomplish something tonight they have yet to do this season: win a third consecutive game.

Boston's longest winning "streak" has been two games, accomplished six times: April 2/3, April 16/17, April 19/20, April 25/26, May 2/3, and May 6/7.

The Red Sox beat the Rangers twice in three games at Fenway on April 7-8-9.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

[tablegrid= Tonight's pitchers ] W L G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP GB% HR/FB% ERA FIP xFIP WHIP Darvish   2014 2 1 6 6 37.2 10.04 2.63 0.72 0.324 30.50% 6.30% 2.87 2.93 3.53 1.25   Buchholz 2014 2 2 6 6 32 6.75 2.53 1.13 0.345 43.80% 9.80% 5.63 4.15 4.17 1.59  [/tablegrid] 

 

[absintheofmalaise]

[tablegrid= The hitters ]Name G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Shin-Soo Choo 30 129 3 16 10 3 17.80% 18.60% 0.172 0.419 0.343 0.481 0.515 0.436 Alex Rios 35 146 2 13 17 5 6.80% 15.80% 0.141 0.36 0.311 0.356 0.452 0.351 Leonys Martin 33 126 1 13 12 9 5.60% 22.20% 0.071 0.369 0.283 0.331 0.354 0.305 Robinson Chirinos 22 78 2 6 8 0 5.10% 24.40% 0.129 0.286 0.229 0.289 0.357 0.291 Mitch Moreland 27 84 1 9 11 0 6.00% 22.60% 0.135 0.357 0.284 0.329 0.419 0.328 Luis Sardinas 3 4 0 1 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0 0.333 0.333 0.5 0.333 0.405 Rougned Odor 1 4 0 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Elvis Andrus 35 151 1 17 8 11 9.30% 11.90% 0.076 0.252 0.227 0.297 0.303 0.274 Michael Choice 28 84 2 7 13 1 14.30% 16.70% 0.1 0.268 0.243 0.345 0.343 0.314 Adrian Beltre 21 88 2 15 9 0 10.20% 15.90% 0.139 0.286 0.253 0.33 0.392 0.324 Prince Fielder 35 151 3 18 12 0 14.60% 13.20% 0.126 0.25 0.228 0.351 0.354 0.299 J.P. Arencibia 16 52 1 5 5 0 5.80% 19.20% 0.128 0.135 0.128 0.192 0.255 0.203     Name G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Mike Napoli 32 139 5 14 20 0 16.50% 23.70% 0.193 0.368 0.289 0.417 0.482 0.399 Dustin Pedroia 33 155 1 22 10 2 9.00% 11.00% 0.113 0.317 0.284 0.348 0.397 0.334 A.J. Pierzynski 28 104 3 12 16 0 3.80% 17.30% 0.128 0.32 0.287 0.33 0.415 0.326 Xander Bogaerts 32 132 1 13 5 1 12.90% 24.20% 0.089 0.367 0.268 0.379 0.357 0.339 David Ortiz 32 141 6 14 18 0 13.50% 17.00% 0.2 0.275 0.258 0.362 0.458 0.352 Jackie Bradley Jr 32 117 0 14 13 3 13.70% 27.40% 0.11 0.309 0.21 0.325 0.32 0.294 Will Middlebrooks 15 61 2 7 6 0 11.50% 24.60% 0.176 0.265 0.216 0.344 0.392 0.33 Shane Victorino 10 50 0 4 3 1 8.00% 20.00% 0.114 0.343 0.273 0.34 0.386 0.323 Jonny Gomes 25 85 3 9 13 0 12.90% 27.10% 0.197 0.277 0.225 0.329 0.423 0.333 David Ross 11 36 2 3 4 0 8.30% 33.30% 0.242 0.211 0.182 0.25 0.424 0.297 Mike Carp 19 40 0 5 2 0 10.00% 20.00% 0.083 0.321 0.25 0.325 0.333 0.3 Grady Sizemore 26 105 2 9 11 2 9.50% 19.00% 0.138 0.274 0.234 0.305 0.372 0.302 Daniel Nava 17 75 2 7 3 1 8.00% 22.70% 0.119 0.167 0.149 0.24 0.269 0.231 Jonathan Herrera 18 42 0 4 4 0 9.50% 21.40% 0 0.269 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.244  [/tablegrid] 

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Too bad we miss a Lester/Darvish matchup. It would be nice to see Clay come up big tonight in his home state.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Only 6 players have any sort of history facing Darvish. I wonder if Farrell starts Ross tonight.
[tablegrid= vs. Darvish ]Hitter AVG AB HR RBI Xander Bogaerts - - - - Jackie Bradley Jr. - - - - Mike Carp 0 7 0 0 Jonny Gomes - - - - Jonathan Herrera - - - - Will Middlebrooks 0 3 0 0 Mike Napoli 0 2 0 0 David Ortiz 0.333 3 1 2 Dustin Pedroia 0.571 7 0 1 A Pierzynski.J. - - - - David Ross 0.5 2 1 1 Grady Sizemore - - - - Shane Victorino - - - -  [/tablegrid] 
 
Chart is from the RS site.

 

[Reverend]

Too bad we miss a Lester/Darvish matchup. It would be nice to see Clay come up big tonight in his home state.

 
Eh, maybe. Lester wasn't particularly great in either of his outings against Texas last year:

• May 5:   6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 ER, 7 K, letting up 2 HRs on 115 pitches (away)
• June 6:  6 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 ER, 4 K, letting up 2 HRs on 108 pitches (home)

If you mean seeing if he'd fare better this year since he's been looking pretty good, then maybe. But he's not necessarily specially posed to give us a better chance to win.
 
As for today, they didn't see Buchholz last year which could well be a good thing.

 

[Reverend]

Also, it has been brought to my attention that the Rangers have called up a player named "Rougned Odor" which may be the greatest name in the league.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I don't see anyone named Bran on their roster.....

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

[tablegrid= Team Comparison ]Team Comparison       Stat Red Sox Rangers Wins 17 18 Losses 17 17 Win % 0.500 0.514 RS/G 4.15 4.17 RA/G 4.26 4.97 Pyth O/U 0.0 0.5  [/tablegrid] 
 
Right now the teams are evenly matched, with the difference of the Rangers' pitching staff allowing nearly 5 runs per game. The rangers are playing about a half game above their Pythagorean calculation.  
 
Using Baseball Prospectus' projections for the remainder of the season, the Red Sox project to be much better going forward than the Rangers.  BP has the Rangers a game below .500 for hte rest of season, while the Red Sox are projected to be much better.  This is a good series for the Red Sox to start to make some gains in their record:
 
[tablegrid= Baseball Prospectus Rest-of-Season Projections  ]Team Wins Losses Win % RS RA Avg OBP SLG Red Sox 70 58 0.547 612 555 0.260 0.330 0.422 Rangers 65 64 0.496 587 588 0.261 0.327 0.412  [/tablegrid]
 
Looking at the pitching matchups, I think the Sox can take 2 of 3 this series, and if Buchholz is on then a sweep is possible (although not likely):
 
[tablegrid= Pitching Matchup Comparison ]Game 1                     Pitcher W L GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 ERA FIP FRA Clay Buchholz 2 2 6 32.00 11.81 2.53 6.75 5.62 4.31 4.37 Yu Darvish 2 1 6 37.70 8.60 2.63 10.04 2.87 3.09 2.86                       Game 2                     Jon Lester 3 4 7 48.70 7.95 1.85 10.73 2.59 2.28 2.87 Martin Perez 4 2 7 47.70 7.74 2.83 5.85 3.59 3.43 4.43                       Game 3                     John Lackey 4 2 7 46.00 9.00 2.15 8.41 3.72 3.51 4.10 Robbie Ross Jr 1 3 7 38.00 11.84 2.37 6.87 4.74 4.35 4.89  [/tablegrid]
 
Perez is an extreme ground ball pitcher who is aided by his defense (which is why his FRA is a full run higher than his FIP). He is a better road pitcher than home pitcher, which should help the Sox.  He had a 26-inning scoreless streak in April, but has been roughed up his last two starts.  He gave up 8 earned runs to Oakland on April 29th and 5 earned runs to Colorado his last start, walking three in both contests.  Perez pitched against Boston this season already, going 6.1 innings, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits, while striking out 3 and walking 3 batters. 
 
Robbie Ross is very hittable pitcher and his matchup against Lackey leans in Boston's favor.  Ross has been roughed up in his last two starts as well, giving up 10 runs (6 earned) against Oakland and 6 earned runs to Colorado.  He doesn't walk a lot of batters, but gives up a lot of contact. I'll be interested to see if the Sox are bit more aggressive in game 3. 

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

The lineups for tonight:
 
Red Sox
Pedroia, 2B
Victorino, RF
Ortiz, DH
Napoli, 1B
Sizemore, LF
Bogaerts, SS
Pierzynski, C
Middlebrooks, 3B
Bradley, CF
 
Rangers
Choo, LF
Andrus, SS
Beltre, 3B
Fielder, 1B
Rios, RF
Moreland, DH
Arencibia, C
Martin, CF
Odor, 2B

 

[foulkehampshire]

Rangers pitching staff took a beating from the Rockies.

 

[mauidano]

Also, it has been brought to my attention that the Rangers have called up a player named "Rougned Odor" which may be the greatest name in the league.

20 year old kid to play second, youngest in Majors at the moment, supposedly got some pop in his bat too.

 

[nattysez]

Also, it has been brought to my attention that the Rangers have called up a player named "Rougned Odor" which may be the greatest name in the league.

 
HaHa Clinton-Dix and Rougned Odor provide excellent barometers regarding how much someone follows sports.  If I had a nickel for every Twitter jockey who thought he was making an original joke after Clinton-Dox was drafted last night, I'd be a rich man.
 
The Sox have the highest team OPS against Darvish for his career (in 2 starts).  The A's are fourth and hit him pretty well twice this year, so hopefully the Sox can use the A's success to determine how to handle him.  

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

 
 
 
The Sox have the highest team OPS against Darvish for his career (in 2 starts).  The A's are fourth and hit him pretty well twice this year, so hopefully the Sox can use the A's success to determine how to handle him.  

 
I doubt that very much.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Line ups:
 
Pedroia 4
Victorino 9
Ortiz DH
Napoli 3
Gomes 7
Bogaerts 6
Ross 2
Middlebrooks 5
Bradley Jr. 5
Lester LHP
 
Choo 7
Andrus 6
Beltre 5
Fielder 3
Rios DH
Choice 9
Martin 8
Chirinos 2
Sardinas 4
Perez LHP

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Two more failed hit-and-runs. I don't know of anywhere that tracks them, but all I can remember are the failures. Have the 2014 Red Sox had any success with this? I can think of at least three missed signs and two swings and misses, all leading to easy outs. At least with a sacrifice bunt you usually end up with a runner on second.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

I haven't tracked the successes, but Remy has observed that they do like to put hit-and-runs on with AJP at the plate, given that he's usually going to swing at the first pitch anyway. And some of those have had happy outcomes.

 

[teddywingman]

Seems like the hit-and-run play is ridiculous these days. Does it yield a positive result 50% of the time?

No.

 

[reggiecleveland]

I don't see anyone named Bran on their roster.....

or Rickon

 

[Stanley Steamer]

Didn't get to see any of the games, but winning 2 out of 3 on the road, especially after getting nearly no-hit on Friday, is an auspicious sign for our club. We are now above .500, and hopefully can build from here. This season figures to be a slog, with all the divisional rivals in for a fight. As much as the Sox have struggled the first month, they are right there. Having Victorino back makes a big difference, and the pitching has been solid. It is now time to show the rest of the division that we are serious about retaining our title.