Second Guesser's Club - Hey guys. Let's try to stay out of the cellar here.

absintheofmalaise

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Game 1: 7:10pm
Game 2: 4:10pm
Game 3 1:40pm  MLBN
 
[tablegrid= Probable pitchers ] W L G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP John Lackey 5 3 9 9 58.1 8.64 2.01 1.08 0.325 72.10% 41.30% 10.30% 4.01 3.37 3.34 Chris Archer RHP 3 2 9 9 51 7.24 3.53 0.53 0.327 69.20% 51.00% 7.30% 4.59 3.46 3.74                                 Jake Peavy 1 2 9 9 54 7.17 4.5 1.5 0.288 80.40% 39.90% 13.40% 4.33 5.14 4.6 David Price LHP 4 4 10 10 69.1 10 0.78 1.43 0.345 70.40% 43.20% 14.70% 4.28 3.21 2.56   No fuckling idea                               Jake Odoorizzi RHP 2 4 9 9 43.1 10.8 4.78 0.83 0.362 71.00% 35.60% 8.20% 4.98 3.46 3.74 [/tablegrid]
 

WenZink

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topps148 said:
I can't tell you how relieved I am to see we're going with NFI on Sunday. TBA would almost certainly get hammered.
 
Well we know it won't be Capuano or Barnes, and Workman is listed as the starter tonight for the PawSox, so it comes down to one of the 3 post-graduate students in Pawtucket, unless Ben found Theo's old rolodex and talks Paul Byrd out of retirement.
 

absintheofmalaise

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I have to say, I was never expecting this batting order tonight:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Pierzynski C
Victorino RF
Sizemore LF
Bradley Jr. CF
Lackey RHP
 

JakeRae

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absintheofmalaise said:
I have to say, I was never expecting this batting order tonight:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Pierzynski C
Victorino RF
Sizemore LF
Bradley Jr. CF
Lackey RHP
 
It's about time Farrell fixed the batting order. This is a massive improvement over what he's been doing so far this season.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Joe Shlabotnick said:
He'll probably try anything at this point. AJP is still batting too high in the order.
I was about to say the same thing but Victorino has been ABYSMAL vs. Rs and Sizemore has been worse than AJ.  AJ is actually doing solid vs. Rs (.301/.336/.441).  Bradley, of course, should be batting 9th.  So, I have to say, I approve of this lineup.  First time in a long time.  
 

MakMan44

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Aug 22, 2009
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Workman scratched from his start tonight. Looks like he's getting the first shot on Sunday
 
 
https://twitter.com/brianmacp/status/469939346913914880
 

kieckeredinthehead

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absintheofmalaise said:
I have to say, I was never expecting this batting order tonight:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Pierzynski C
Victorino RF
Sizemore LF
Bradley Jr. CF
Lackey RHP
 
Three lefties in a row? Gee, I wonder how Maddon will handle that late in the game.
 

ScubaSteveAvery

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Can we talk about how the 9th inning played out?  First by using Carp to pinch hit for Bradley, we remove Bradley's only real value in his defense.  Instead, we get a classic Carp ground out to first.  This leaves the team with an outfield of Carp-Sizemore-Gomes, forcing them to play at the warning track so a soft liner wouldn't get by the range deficient outfield.  
 
Next up, Badenhop throws an awful pitch on the pitch out, followed by AJ's off target throw.  Horrible execution by both players involved.  And then a soft liner ends the game.  If Bradley is in CF that ball is caught. 
 
There should have been zero reason for Farrell to PH for JBJ, especially when Victorino had to be replaced by Gomes an at bat earlier.  He made it to where routine fly balls could drop in for hits because the outfield had to play so far back. 
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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ScubaSteveAvery said:
Can we talk about how the 9th inning played out?  First by using Carp to pinch hit for Bradley, we remove Bradley's only real value in his defense.  Instead, we get a classic Carp ground out to first.  This leaves the team with an outfield of Carp-Sizemore-Gomes, forcing them to play at the warning track so a soft liner wouldn't get by the range deficient outfield.  
 
Next up, Badenhop throws an awful pitch on the pitch out, followed by AJ's off target throw.  Horrible execution by both players involved.  And then a soft liner ends the game.  If Bradley is in CF that ball is caught. 
 
There should have been zero reason for Farrell to PH for JBJ, especially when Victorino had to be replaced by Gomes an at bat earlier.  He made it to where routine fly balls could drop in for hits because the outfield had to play so far back. 
in addition, why have Victorino bunt?
 

soxhop411

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Stan Papi Was Framed said:
in addition, why have Victorino bunt?
Im guessing he was trying to get something going, given how our offense has disappeared the past week +
 
16 runs in their last 73 innings will do that
 
also our BA is .220 over that span….
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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soxhop411 said:
Im guessing he was trying to get something going, given how our offense has disappeared the past week +
yes, I think that's what he'd say.  I still don't like it.  the Red Sox crushed Oviedo less than a month ago.  Coincidentally, the crushing began with an AJP single.  after Middlebrooks doubled, JBJ and Victorino did the same.  why not let Victorino hit and see what happens
 

jimbobim

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I've come up with a phrase for some of Farrell's more head scratching moves this year. "Managerial Malpractice" 
 
The end of this game starting with the our at bat in the top of the 9th. AJP single and it has to be in the discussion to pinch run. I mean Herrerra is a marginal utility player but he can run faster then AJP who rivals Turtle in his slowness and Herrera has been a ghost essentially being the non hitting version of Mike Carp from last year who struggled to get time from JF.
 
On to the Vic bunt. The whole lineup has been struggling so I get wanting to do anything to get the runner in scoring position but at least two -three times during this putrid run he's bunted with no outs to move guys over ahead of the ,8,9 hitters or the 8,9,1 hitters. I don't hate bunting on principle but the way this team has been swinging the bat its really hard to justify giving away an out especially when your worst hitters are coming up.
 
He didn't pinch hit for JBJ against Mcgee so I really didn't get the pinch hitter in the 9th and it came back to bite him in the ass in the bottom of the inning.
 
The pitchout was just atrocious execution but if JF had pinch run for AJ maybe the sac bunt  actually does its job he still can pinch hit for JBJ if he wants and no way Ross fucks up that throw as badly as the defensive replacement in the bottom of the inning. 
 
I also think Miller has been great but in the midst of a 7 game brutal losing streak bringing in Badenhop even it was for the double play is questionable. Koji Uehara is a weapon that JF hasn't been able to use with a lead in a week and he had been up in the top of the inning.
 
Obviously the Badenhop choice is the most defensible but an especially painful game tonight considering Lackey's excellence. Will be interesting to see the lineup JF goes with tomorrow against Price. Don't like to say must win in May but losing and asking Workman to pitch well enough to keep this offense in the game for the series finale and stop what would be a 10 game losing streak is a tall order.  
 
The offense needs help ASAP. Especially with Vic being newly hurt and the upcoming Braves series forcing either Nap or Ortiz out of the order.
 

ToeKneeArmAss

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How long can they continue to undermine the Red Sox' slim hopes of winning ballgames by trotting AJP out there?  His offense is the very definition of replacement level, but he makes up for it by being a shitty game-caller, a fidgetty, stabby catcher who costs his pitchers countless strikes and drops balls when it matters most (not that he's capable of throwing anyone out, mind you), and is absolutely lead-footed on the basepaths.  How many other ML players get thrown out by 15 ft. on the Victorino bunt?  Who in the entire cosmic viewing audience didn't know that Jennings was going to waltz into second, pitchout or not?  What possible positive contribution does he make beyond bumping John Lackey into second place on the list of most dislikeable current Red Sox players?  Must be his leadership and impact on clubhouse camaraderie and esprit de corps.  :barf:
 
Absolutely anyone would be an improvement.  Cut your losses and move on. Surely you could pry someone like Gerald Laird or Ryan Doumit off someone's bench with some trinket in the farm system somewhere.
 
Make it stop. #DFA_AJP
 

teddywingman

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I've heard old baseball fans say that a manager can't win or lose a team more than two games a year, and I've always felt that was true. But Farrell is at 2 or 3 already. 
 
Yeah yeah if the player doesn't execute the job it's not the manager's fault--but Farrell is on an amazing streak of horrible decisions.
 
I'd argue that he was on a similar streak last year, but last year's team bailed him out like nothing I've ever seen before.
 
This year's team is really interesting too, but they're not good. 
 
Downgrade at catcher is probably problem A.
 

Al Zarilla

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teddywingman said:
That post was made by a WEEI caller, not me. Not me.
 
Edit: I'll say it. John Farrell is the worst in-game manager that I currently know of.
Don Mattingly probably makes more bad moves because he's not the sharpest pencil in the box. But he'll probably pinch hit and pinch run more often to get obviously overmatched hitters out of the box in close and late situations, and get a brontosaurus like AJ off the basepaths. I don't know. Who watches enough games across all teams to be able to make a meaningful decision on good and bad in-game managers?
 

geoduck no quahog

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This team has some real structural problems, none of which are down to Farrell.
 
I understand team and player slumps, and that no team is as good as it looks during winning streaks or as bad as they look when losing, BUT...
 
1. They have a no-power outfield filled with players that can't steal bases.
2. They have the worst defensive catcher imaginable
3. They have no outfield depth. For those who advocate dumping Sizemore, realize that the Oft-Injured (tm) right fielder can really no longer be counted on for CF backup.
 
There's no way to call up Vasquez without dumping/DL AJP...for what?
Dropping/DL Sizemore leaves the team with no CF depth, depending on Victorino's iffy health.
Calling up Nava means dumping Carp.
All 3 dumps are LH.
No replacements have speed or HR power.
 
The team is flawed. The only move I'd back right now is the AJP dump, only because I can't stand him.
 

twibnotes

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Al Zarilla said:
Don Mattingly probably makes more bad moves because he's not the sharpest pencil in the box. But he'll probably pinch hit and pinch run more often to get obviously overmatched hitters out of the box in close and late situations, and get a brontosaurus like AJ off the basepaths. I don't know. Who watches enough games across all teams to be able to make a meaningful decision on good and bad in-game managers?
It's also tough to compare an AL manager to an NL manager given the extra decisions an NL guy has to make. The way Farrell is managing now, imagine the mess he'd be making in NL.
 

Clears Cleaver

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When the Blue Jays started losing and suffering injuries, Farrell started making moves that baffled fans and some players and members of management. I think perhaps he's one of these types who needs orderly progression and struggles with adversity. Because some of the moves made over the past few days are mind-bogglingly bad
 

twibnotes

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Clears Cleaver said:
When the Blue Jays started losing and suffering injuries, Farrell started making moves that baffled fans and some players and members of management. I think perhaps he's one of these types who needs orderly progression and struggles with adversity. Because some of the moves made over the past few days are mind-bogglingly bad
I just read his quote about not using Herrerra to pinch run bc he may have needed him for something else. So, by Farrell's thinking, he was desperate enough to bunt with AJ running...but not desperate enough to use Herrerra whose defense may be needed if...what? He pinch hits for holt or something? There's a total inconsistency and disconnect bw some of the moves he makes. Either go all in on the bunt or don't...it's not playing it safe to save Herrerra for some other scenario that's unlikely to occur.
 

Plympton91

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I always have a hard time blaming the manager for making head scratching moves when he has no good options.

Victoino bunted because he can't hit right handlers this year. The Rays radio announcers actually said he's resumed taking BP left handed and may resume switch hitting soon.

I don't understand the entire Board's conclusion that Carp can't hit based on 60 sparse plate appearances. He's a 770 career OPS guy and absolutely should have hit for Bradley, a 600 career OPS guy, with the go ahead run on second.

I agree not pinch running Herrera is questionable, but doing so drains the whole bench. So any injury means a pitcher playing a position. And as we've learned, Nap isn't healthy , while SiZemore is always one step away from retirement.

As GnQ said, this is a poorly constructed team with a lot of bad baseball players on it right now. They wanted a bridge year and they got one.

Incidentally, if the dentist is reading, today I've got a 4:00 tee time with my 2 older kids. NESN ratings will be down 3 today.
 

Toe Nash

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I don't like Pierzynski either but he has thrown out 35% of runners this year (8/23). I won't defend the rest of his defense, but he's above average in that respect defensively. I believe the pitch-framing metrics had him somewhere in the middle as well.
 

richgedman'sghost

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ToeKneeArmAss said:
How long can they continue to undermine the Red Sox' slim hopes of winning ballgames by trotting AJP out there?  His offense is the very definition of replacement level, but he makes up for it by being a shitty game-caller, a fidgetty, stabby catcher who costs his pitchers countless strikes and drops balls when it matters most (not that he's capable of throwing anyone out, mind you), and is absolutely lead-footed on the basepaths.  How many other ML players get thrown out by 15 ft. on the Victorino bunt?  Who in the entire cosmic viewing audience didn't know that Jennings was going to waltz into second, pitchout or not?  What possible positive contribution does he make beyond bumping John Lackey into second place on the list of most dislikeable current Red Sox players?  Must be his leadership and impact on clubhouse camaraderie and esprit de corps.  :barf:
 
Absolutely anyone would be an improvement.  Cut your losses and move on. Surely you could pry someone like Gerald Laird or Ryan Doumit off someone's bench with some trinket in the farm system somewhere.
 
Make it stop. #DFA_AJP
Not to totally defend AJP but he has thrown out 35% of baserunners attempting to steal which is not horrendous. His pitch framing ability as noted on the board a few weeks ago is somewhere in the middle of the pack. So could we please cut out the hyperbole! Since you state that "absolutely anyone would be an improvement" why don't you get on a plane and offer your services to the Red Sox. I'll even pay for your plane ticket to Tampa.
Anyway I realize it's a tough loss but the board has to be better than this.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Plympton91 said:
I don't understand the entire Board's conclusion that Carp can't hit based on 60 sparse plate appearances. He's a 770 career OPS guy and absolutely should have hit for Bradley, a 600 career OPS guy, with the go ahead run on second.
 
The go-ahead run wasn't on second - plus it was Gomes, who isn't guaranteed to score on a double even with two out. It should have been on second, but he refused to pinch-run for Pierzynski just to save Herrera for what exactly? If the runner was on second, then I can see pinch-hitting being worth it, but you can't take JBJ out in a low-percentage scoring scenario especially with Victorino already out.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Rudy Pemberton said:
All of which proves how useless a player Carp is. Atrocious defensively and not worthy of pinch hitting for Bradley, one of the worst hitters in the league right now. The roster is a mess right now. I don't know what they can really do about it; but replacing Carp with a player who can hit, defend, or run (or ideally a combination of that) would be a start.
 
Like Daniel Nava?
 
He can at least hit RHP.
 

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
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Rudy Pemberton said:
The hatred for AJP has reached Lackey 2012 levels. He's mediocre yes, but it's not as if the other options are good. Ross is cooked and Vazquez isn't ready. AJP isn't an asset and he's not helping, but he's just one of many issues.
 
Issue #1:  Clay Buchholz.  He's been atrocious this year, and they were really counting on him.  6.32 era, 1.85 whip.  Getting absolutely hammered.  And this isn't like a rookie #5 they were hoping to get replacement level from.  This is a guy they envision as ace-caliber.  
 
Issue #2:  The offense.  I mean there's just so much suck there it's really difficult to pin it on anyone.  The only one really doing his job well is Ortiz.  Other than him, it's a bunch of mediocrity (Pedroia, Napoli, Bogaerts - ok, XB has been a little better than mediocre), and a bunch of hideousness (AJP, Gomes, Ross, Middlebrooks, Bradley, Carp, Nava, Victorino, Sizemore).  When you only have one guy performing well, then your offense is in big trouble.  They can't manufacture runs, they can't sustain rallies, they can't get key hits in big spots, they run the bases poorly.  It's a gigantic cesspool of suck.  No one move is going to fix it.  It's a problem with the kids (WMB, Bradley).  It's a problem with the veterans (Pedroia, Victorino, Nava, Carp, AJP, Ross).  It's a problem with the stars (Pedroia not doing what he's capable of), it's a problem with the role players.  
 
Issue #3:  Bad in-game managing.  Every game thread now has multiple examples of Farrell blunders.  Of course, this is going to be magnified when the players suck so that every decision looks like the wrong one, but really, he's not done well lately.  But still, he needs to do a better job game-in and game-out.
 
Pretty much the only things going right for this team are Ortiz, Lester, Bogaerts' bat is waking up, and the bullpen has been good.  The rest of the starting pitching has struggled, the offense is horrible, the defense isn't very good.  
 
Unless there's a rash of injuries, it's hard to see how things could be worse.  
 

Al Zarilla

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ivanvamp said:
 
Issue #1:  Clay Buchholz.  He's been atrocious this year, and they were really counting on him.  6.32 era, 1.85 whip.  Getting absolutely hammered.  And this isn't like a rookie #5 they were hoping to get replacement level from.  This is a guy they envision as ace-caliber.  
 
Issue #2:  The offense.  I mean there's just so much suck there it's really difficult to pin it on anyone.  The only one really doing his job well is Ortiz.  Other than him, it's a bunch of mediocrity (Pedroia, Napoli, Bogaerts - ok, XB has been a little better than mediocre), and a bunch of hideousness (AJP, Gomes, Ross, Middlebrooks, Bradley, Carp, Nava, Victorino, Sizemore).  When you only have one guy performing well, then your offense is in big trouble.  They can't manufacture runs, they can't sustain rallies, they can't get key hits in big spots, they run the bases poorly.  It's a gigantic cesspool of suck.  No one move is going to fix it.  It's a problem with the kids (WMB, Bradley).  It's a problem with the veterans (Pedroia, Victorino, Nava, Carp, AJP, Ross).  It's a problem with the stars (Pedroia not doing what he's capable of), it's a problem with the role players.  
 
Issue #3:  Bad in-game managing.  Every game thread now has multiple examples of Farrell blunders.  Of course, this is going to be magnified when the players suck so that every decision looks like the wrong one, but really, he's not done well lately.  But still, he needs to do a better job game-in and game-out.
 
Pretty much the only things going right for this team are Ortiz, Lester, Bogaerts' bat is waking up, and the bullpen has been good.  The rest of the starting pitching has struggled, the offense is horrible, the defense isn't very good.  
 
Unless there's a rash of injuries, it's hard to see how things could be worse.  
Lackey's been pretty good.
 

RedOctober3829

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The major issues with this team are pretty clear.

1. Buchholz is not pitching like his first half. Most of the games he's pitched he's not even given them a chance to win.

2. The lack of overall production from all 3 OF spots. This is the primary difference from last year where we had Ellsbury, Vic, and Nava all having great years.

We can talk about Peavy and Doubront all we want but struggles from 4/5 spots in the rotation are expected. Farrell isn't having a great year, but he's a small part of this.

The 2 reasons I gave are the two biggest reasons why they are off to this start.
 

Plympton91

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Rudy's Curve said:
 
The go-ahead run wasn't on second - plus it was Gomes, who isn't guaranteed to score on a double even with two out. It should have been on second, but he refused to pinch-run for Pierzynski just to save Herrera for what exactly? If the runner was on second, then I can see pinch-hitting being worth it, but you can't take JBJ out in a low-percentage scoring scenario especially with Victorino already out.
 
Because whether the runner was on first or second is entirely the point of the post.
 

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
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RedOctober3829 said:
The major issues with this team are pretty clear.

1. Buchholz is not pitching like his first half. Most of the games he's pitched he's not even given them a chance to win.

2. The lack of overall production from all 3 OF spots. This is the primary difference from last year where we had Ellsbury, Vic, and Nava all having great years.

We can talk about Peavy and Doubront all we want but struggles from 4/5 spots in the rotation are expected. Farrell isn't having a great year, but he's a small part of this.

The 2 reasons I gave are the two biggest reasons why they are off to this start.
 
With respect to the OF, let's say we had kept Ellsbury.
 
2013
Ellsbury: 113 ops+, 5.7 bWAR
Victorino:  118 ops+, 5.8 bWAR
Gomes:  110 ops+, 1.2 bWAR
Nava:  127 ops+, 2.8 bWAR
Carp:  139 ops+, 1.2 bWAR
 
2014
Ellsbury:  94 ops+, 0.2 bWAR 
Victorino:  72 ops+, 0.3 bWAR
Gomes:  103 ops+, 0.2 bWAR
Nava:  40 ops+, -0.4 bWAR
Carp:  93 ops+, -0.1 bWAR
 
(Bradley):  65 ops+, 0.2 bWAR
(Sizemore):  96 ops+, 0.3 bWAR
 
I mean, good god, the drop off from last year, even if we played the same exact group of guys, has been horrendous.  
 

rembrat

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David Ortiz is 3 for his last 30. There is literally nothing happening right now save for Xander finding his power stroke. 
 

MoGator71

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If Victorino is still in the game I can get behind Carp for JBJ. But with Vic out hitting for JBJ left you with an awful defensive outfield. And because everything is going bad of course it ended up costing them.
 

jimbobim

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This lineup today is a travesty especially when one of Oritz and Napoli will be benched due to lack of DH in the next series. What will it take to go get a legitimate OF bat ? Additionally with Gomes in the lineup no RH bat off the bench outside of Nap whose getting a day of rest. UGGGG. 
 

absintheofmalaise

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Holy shit! line up time:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
Carp 1B
Gomes RF
Pierzynski DH
Sizemore LF
Ross C
Bradley CF
Peavy RHP
 
Devil Rays
 
DeJesus DH
Longoria 3B
Joyce RF
Loney 1B
Guyer LF
Jennings CF
Forsythe 2B
Escobar SS
Molina C
Price LHP
 

Reverend

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richgedman'sghost said:
Not to totally defend AJP but he has thrown out 35% of baserunners attempting to steal which is not horrendous. His pitch framing ability as noted on the board a few weeks ago is somewhere in the middle of the pack. So could we please cut out the hyperbole! Since you state that "absolutely anyone would be an improvement" why don't you get on a plane and offer your services to the Red Sox. I'll even pay for your plane ticket to Tampa.
Anyway I realize it's a tough loss but the board has to be better than this.
 
TKAA is older and probably about twice as fast as AJP. I dunno if he can frame a pitch, I might be up for this.
 
 
ivanvamp said:
 
Issue #2:  The offense.  I mean there's just so much suck there it's really difficult to pin it on anyone.  The only one really doing his job well is Ortiz.  Other than him, it's a bunch of mediocrity (Pedroia, Napoli, Bogaerts - ok, XB has been a little better than mediocre), and a bunch of hideousness (AJP, Gomes, Ross, Middlebrooks, Bradley, Carp, Nava, Victorino, Sizemore).  When you only have one guy performing well, then your offense is in big trouble.  They can't manufacture runs, they can't sustain rallies, they can't get key hits in big spots, they run the bases poorly.  It's a gigantic cesspool of suck.  No one move is going to fix it.  It's a problem with the kids (WMB, Bradley).  It's a problem with the veterans (Pedroia, Victorino, Nava, Carp, AJP, Ross).  It's a problem with the stars (Pedroia not doing what he's capable of), it's a problem with the role players.  
 
Most of this, good and bad, is insupportable by the data and is mostly histrionics about losing. Normally, as I think most here know, I'd go through the data, but there's simply too much here and it doesn't seem like purposeful activity.
 
 
rembrat said:
David Ortiz is 3 for his last 30. There is literally nothing happening right now save for Xander finding his power stroke. 
 
Yep. Unless you count injuries. Gotta be good and lucky to win. I'd love to see what this roster could do if they were all clicking at the same time rather than taking turns, but that's not even on the table right now.
 

Reverend

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Is Farrell pissed off at the team or something?
 

Al Zarilla

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Dec 8, 2005
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San Andreas Fault
ivanvamp said:
 
With respect to the OF, let's say we had kept Ellsbury.
 
2013
Ellsbury: 113 ops+, 5.7 bWAR
Victorino:  118 ops+, 5.8 bWAR
Gomes:  110 ops+, 1.2 bWAR
Nava:  127 ops+, 2.8 bWAR
Carp:  139 ops+, 1.2 bWAR
 
2014
Ellsbury:  94 ops+, 0.2 bWAR 
Victorino:  72 ops+, 0.3 bWAR
Gomes:  103 ops+, 0.2 bWAR
Nava:  40 ops+, -0.4 bWAR
Carp:  93 ops+, -0.1 bWAR
 
(Bradley):  65 ops+, 0.2 bWAR
(Sizemore):  96 ops+, 0.3 bWAR
 
I mean, good god, the drop off from last year, even if we played the same exact group of guys, has been horrendous.  
Do you expect Ellsbury to do that all year though? Most hitters are streaky, Ells a bit more than most, I think. This year, he was riding high in April, shot down in May (old Sinatra song). You're right though, we had a bunch of guys exceed expectations last year. Ellsbury coming off the shoulder injury and being solid all year; Vic coming off two sporadic play injury years and contributing a big WAR in spite of more injuries; and Nava and Carp just having career years. Gomes was about right on career OPS+ last year. Drew was everything we could ask for on both sides of the ball. Buchholz with that marvelous first half, Lackey being Lackey of old, Koji...On and on. The Devil and Daniel Webster is being reincarnated on the ball field this year, I swear. 
 
Edit, Napoli, after his big scare in the spring, had an excellent year, both sides.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,160
New York, NY
The problem with last night was not entering the inning with a clear plan. If the plan was, go for broke to win now, then he needed to pinch run for AJP, then steal/bunt, then pinch hit and destroy the OF defense. If the plan was to try to win but be prepared for extras, he can't pinch hit for Bradley because he needs his defense. Basically, if Carp was going to pinch hit no matter what, and all evidence points to that, then he needs to pinch run with Herrera. Because, holding back your utility infielder while throwing out an outfield of three left fielders makes no sense at all.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
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Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
I'm going to cherry-pick some AL stats that confuse me.
 
Team OBP:
Boston .327
NYY: .323
BAL; .317
 
Team OPS:
NYY: .724
BAL: .721
Boston: .702
 
Runs/Game:
BAL: 4.32
NYY: 4.25
Boston: 3.94
 
Are HR's that important?
 
Team ERA:
Boston: 3.90
NYY: 4.01
BAL: 4.07
 
Starter ERA:
NYY: 3.99
BAL: 4.32
Boston: 4.39
 
Reliever ERA:
Boston: 2.97
BAL: 3.61
NYY: 4.06
 
Obviously starters are more important than relievers...
 
Are these comparative stats just small sample noise? Are these teams so different that the standings make sense? Is it luck? Or is it homeruns?
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,160
New York, NY
geoduck no quahog said:
I'm going to cherry-pick some AL stats that confuse me.
 
Team OBP:
Boston .327
NYY: .323
BAL; .317
 
Team OPS:
NYY: .724
BAL: .721
Boston: .702
 
Runs/Game:
BAL: 4.32
NYY: 4.25
Boston: 3.94
 
Are HR's that important?
 
Team ERA:
Boston: 3.90
NYY: 4.01
BAL: 4.07
 
Starter ERA:
NYY: 3.99
BAL: 4.32
Boston: 4.39
 
Reliever ERA:
Boston: 2.97
BAL: 3.61
NYY: 4.06
 
Obviously starters are more important than relievers...
 
Are these comparative stats just small sample noise? Are these teams so different that the standings make sense? Is it luck? Or is it homeruns?
Some of it is that only one of these teams has a manager who is doing everything in his power to make it harder to win games. Most of it is luck.
 

Reverend

for king and country
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Jan 20, 2007
64,507
Batting average isn't totally irrelevant either. Do people still watch the games?
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
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Dec 4, 2009
46,513
RedOctober3829 said:
Is Ortiz or Napoli even available to PH today?
Napoli may be out until tuesday, Ortiz still has calf issues.. So I would guess just Ortiz