Second Guesser's Club - Didn't They Just Play These Guys?

[absintheofmalaise]

Could this be Lester's last game at Fenway in the home whites? Will CB remember where his release point is and to lead with his shoulder? Will they win at least two out of the three?
 
[tablegrid= Probable Starters ]   W L G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP Gamke 1: 7:10 R.A. Dickey RHP 8 10 22 22 138 7.57 3.33 1.24 0.275 72.00% 41.80% 12.20% 4.04 4.53 4.17 ESPN Clay Buchholz RHP 5 6 16 16 91.2 6.48 2.85 1.18 0.331 65.50% 44.50% 11.00% 5.5 4.51 4.31                                   Game 2: 7:10 Marcus Stroman RHP 6 2 15 10 67.1 7.89 2 0.67 0.283 72.50% 50.80% 7.70% 3.21 3.11 3.36   Rubby de la Rosa RHP 3 3 8 8 48.1 6.7 2.61 1.12 0.277 77.50% 46.90% 14.00% 3.54 4.19 3.7                                   Game 3: 7:10 Mark Buehrle LHP 10 7 21 21 135.1 5.32 2.39 0.73 0.304 78.30% 40.80% 6.90% 3.19 3.85 4.29   Brandon Workman RHP 1 3 11 8 52.1 7.05 3.27 1.20 0.243 69.60% 38.8% 11.5% 4.13 4.45 4.19 [/tablegrid]

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Holt CF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Nava LF
Victorino RF
Drew SS
Bogaerts 3B
Ross C
Buchholz P

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Is it time for this?
 
6. Philadelphia
7. San Diego
8. Minnesota
9. Boston
10. Mets
10t Chisox

 

[nattysez]

Top 4, 2-0 Jays, men on second and third after a walk, single and bunt. Farrell plays the infield in for reasons that are beyond me. The hitter smashes a grounder past Pedroia that would have been an easy out if he'd been playing at normal depth. So Farrell turned a 2-run single instead of an RBI groundout. Why? What was he thinking?

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Maybe his crystal ball is broken. They say predictions are hard, especially about the future.
 
Would you be second-guessing the positioning if the ball had stayed in the infield?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Top 4, 2-0 Jays, men on second and third after a walk, single and bunt. Farrell plays the infield in for reasons that are beyond me. The hitter smashes a grounder past Pedroia that would have been an easy out if he'd been playing at normal depth. So Farrell turned a 2-run single instead of an RBI groundout. Why? What was he thinking?

 
The Redsox offense is so putrid that a 3 run lead is nearly insurmountable. Perfectly understandable move.

 

[joe dokes]

Top 4, 2-0 Jays, men on second and third after a walk, single and bunt. Farrell plays the infield in for reasons that are beyond me. The hitter smashes a grounder past Pedroia that would have been an easy out if he'd been playing at normal depth. So Farrell turned a 2-run single instead of an RBI groundout. Why? What was he thinking?

 
I don't understand why this is so, but, according to just about every announcer I've heard for the last 40 years, it's infield back with none out and in with 1 out. I agree that the 4th seems early for that, but with the Sox constipated offense, maybe the risk of giving up one (conceded on a normal grounder) or two (on a ball that gets through) is worth the chance of giving up none.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

The Kids Are Alright:
 
Holt RF
Nava LF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Carp 1B
Drew SS
Bogaerts 3B
Bradley Jr. CF
Vazquez C
De La Rosa P

 

[Plympton91]

Showcasing Carp? Or is Napoli hurt?

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

I don't understand why this is so, but, according to just about every announcer I've heard for the last 40 years, it's infield back with none out and in with 1 out. 

 

Managers don't want to risk a big inning if the ball gets through and there's no one out. Better to concede the run at 3rd and put 1/3d of the inning behind you. 
 
With none out, if the ball gets through the infield, you have, at best, one run in and runner on 1st with no out, which is a .941 run expectancy by this table of data from a few years ago.
 
With one out, if the ball gets through the infield, you have, at best, a run in and runner on 1st with no out, which is a .562 run expectancy. But if you get the out at 1st and keep the guy at 3rd from scoring, the run expectancy with 2 out is down to .385.

 

[nattysez]

 
 

Managers don't want to risk a big inning if the ball gets through and there's no one out. Better to concede the run at 3rd and put 1/3d of the inning behind you. 
 
With none out, if the ball gets through the infield, you have, at best, one run in and runner on 1st with no out, which is a .941 run expectancy by this table of data from a few years ago.
 
With one out, if the ball gets through the infield, you have, at best, a run in and runner on 1st with no out, which is a .562 run expectancy. But if you get the out at 1st and keep the guy at 3rd from scoring, the run expectancy with 2 out is down to .385.

 

 
But doesn't all of this change when there are men at second and third?  The ball that gets past the drawn-in infield with men at second and third and one out plates two runners and you're left with a man on first and only one out (.284 chance that he scores, and you've already given up two runs), whereas playing back results in an out with only one of the runs scoring and the other guy at third with two outs (.270 chance of that guy scoring, so a pretty good chance you'll allow only one run). 

 

[LuckyBen]

Can we call up Mookie and bat him leadoff? Holt is toast.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
But doesn't all of this change when there are men at second and third?  The ball that gets past the drawn-in infield with men at second and third and one out plates two runners and you're left with a man on first and only one out (.284 chance that he scores, and you've already given up two runs), whereas playing back results in an out with only one of the runs scoring and the other guy at third with two outs (.270 chance of that guy scoring, so a pretty good chance you'll allow only one run). 

 
Look at your offense and the current deficit. How easy is it for them to get back that run if the runner from 3rd scores?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Can we call up Mookie and bat him leadoff? Holt is toast.

This is why you are in here.

 

[nattysez]

Pretty interesting tweet tonight from Gabe Kapler about playing the infield in:
 
https://twitter.com/gabekapler/status/494283903910150147

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Thanks for that natty. I was not aware of that. Good information to have.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Today's Hit Parade!
 
Holt 1B
Victorino RF
Pedroia 2B
Napoli DH
Gomes LF
Drew SS
Bogaerts 3B
Bradley Jr. CF
Vazquez C
Workman RHP

 

[pokey_reese]

Ortiz career vs. Buehrle: 313 / 352 / 578. Off day tomorrow. Assume he's banged up, otherwise a strange time for a day off.

They want to give him a chance to spend the whole game hanging out with Lester.  Just in case he doesn't see him on Thursday...

 

[Reverend]

Thanks for that natty. I was not aware of that. Good information to have.

 
Ban the "infield in"!!