Yeah Smart and Schroeder could be oil and water. We'll see.
I'm behind a reasonable Smart extension, but TL isn't in a position to cause trouble (nor does it seem to be his personality). I want a big discount on the latter to hedge for injury.
Schroder to Celtics
- Thread starter Cellar-Door
- Start date
I'm behind a reasonable Smart extension, but TL isn't in a position to cause trouble (nor does it seem to be his personality). I want a big discount on the latter to hedge for injury.
Wanting Schroder to start is perfectly fine, although I'd argue he's more valuable when 1 of Tatum or Brown is off the court because the added creation he brings would become more important.
But I really don't understand your comments on Smart. He started last season & was not a black hole. Why would he be a black hole if he started this season?
I would think Smart would me more likely to feel the urge to chuck bad shots if he was playing with other non-creators than if he is playing with the starters?
But yeah, they have completely different shot profiles, with Smart shooting 55% of his shots from 3 last year & Schroder only shooting 28% from 3. Schroder shoots twice as many of his shots inside 3 feet as Smart (25% to 13%).
I have soured on Smart ever since the bubble last year. I just don't like the way he plays on offense and yes there are games where he decides to take it upon himself to shoot the basketball and it tends to be completely boom or bust. I hope they don't extend him. He chucked bad shots with and without starters over the years.
The facts bear this out. When Smart plays with both Jays on the court:
Usage: 15.6% | TS%: 59.8% | FGA per 36: 9.9
When Smart plays with no Jays on the court:
Usage: 26.7% | TS%: 42.8% | FGA per 36: 18.5
I think Smart shoots as a response to his perception of the team's passivity. His highest usage last year and the bubble year came from situations where the Celtics were down 16-20 points, 11-15 points, 6-10 points, etc. In close situations or when it's tied is when Smart has the lowest usage. My take on that is pretty neutral. Does he shut the door on coming back in games where they're down big sometimes? Probably. But when no one else is doing anything else...
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203935/advanced/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&Split=ingame&sort=USG_PCT&dir=1
It's weird. Smart & Schroder both are 36% on corner 3s for their career, but last year Smart shot 49% on corner 3s & Schroder shot 17%.
So many of our players are basically a tick under league average 3 point shooters. Having 2 or 3 of them make some jumps would be super helpful.
3p%, Last year/Career/Best year
Schroder 34/34/39
Smart 33/32/36
JRich 33/36/46
Nesmith 37/37/37
Grant 37/32/37
Tatum 39/40/43
Jaylen 40/38/40
Horford 37/36/43
Pritchard 41/41/41
Romeo 28/22/28
So many of our players are basically a tick under league average 3 point shooters. Having 2 or 3 of them make some jumps would be super helpful.
3p%, Last year/Career/Best year
Schroder 34/34/39
Smart 33/32/36
JRich 33/36/46
Nesmith 37/37/37
Grant 37/32/37
Tatum 39/40/43
Jaylen 40/38/40
Horford 37/36/43
Pritchard 41/41/41
Romeo 28/22/28
Arguing that Smart isn't a good offensive player & should have his minutes limited as a result is fine, but I think there is every reason to believe that the minutes he does play, the team is probably better served to have him play with both Js (thx for the statistical backup Rustjive).
I'd guess DS's numbers would look a lot better playing with the Jay's too, though. I'm guessing most of the players on the C's have better numbers playing with both the Jays. Playing with better players gives you better shots.
edit: Plus I think you can stagger DS and MS so that one of them is always on the court. JRich should be the guy coming off the bench, imo.
I would guess that Schroder's #s would be relatively much more independent of the players with him than Smart based on his ability to create his own offense.
But he literally played with LeBron last year, so we can find out...
Without LeBron, he actually shot surprisingly better for some reason. Probably just noise, tbh. 46.1/40.5/86.4. Goes up to 8.0 apg too.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/dennis-schroder-stats-without-lebron-2021
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/dennis-schroder-stats-without-lebron-2021
In the same format as Smart's stats...
Schroeder with Lebron: Usage: 19.6% | TS% 54.7% | FGA per 36: 11.96
Schroeder without Lebron: Usage: 25.5% | TS%: 53.8% | FGA per 36: 15.48
https://www.addmorefunds.com/nba/wowy/
Lol same. I am hoping he took the hint & is doing god's work as we speak.
I think staggering the lineups so at almost all times at least 2 of Jay/Jay/DS are on the Court makes sense to me, with 1 of Al/TL & some combo of everyone else filing the other 2 spots.
In the rare minutes where only 1 of Jay/Jay/DS is on the floor, PP & at least 1 of JRich/Smart should be there.
I know I keep harping on this, but it also helps to keep in mind that three point percentage is volatile. J-Rich in particular I think will have a better year: this year was his absolute nadir as a shooter. Smart might get a bump too, and Schroder's had better and he's had worse.
Point is, between Brown, Tatum, Horford, Pritchard, and potentially Nesmith we have several excellent shooters. The other guys just need to be league average, and we'll be good.
Point is, between Brown, Tatum, Horford, Pritchard, and potentially Nesmith we have several excellent shooters. The other guys just need to be league average, and we'll be good.
It's always nice when stats line up with one's perception. Thx!
It is, but if the team has an obvious weakness or hole, it's 3 point shooting. It's not even that huge of a weakness though, especially if Nesmith is ready to contribute this season. I also think there's a good chance DS actually improves.
This is the type of applicable data that tells such a greater story than single metrics. Great stuff!!
Totally agree. I stare with furious jealousy at the Jazz and their bevy of elite-to-very-good shooters.
One thing to watch (and another thing I keep harping on) is if Pritchard can replicate some of these summer league fire-works with Al or TL against second units. At his best last year he was pick and rolling with Rob to tremendous effect. Him taking 6-8 threes a game at these rates would solve a lot of our problems even if Nesmith can't continue his hot shooting.
Starting him and Schroder is a no brainer in my mind. I don't think they'll get on each other's nerves -- I think they'll feed on each other's fury!
Regardless of the exact details, I think the stats show that Schröder is much more capable of running an offense & accepting higher usage without sacrificing efficiency than Smart is, & I think that's very helpful in crafting lineups & rotations.
There's 48 minutes of lineups to craft & optimize, even if the focus is usually on who starts & who finishes.
To take 6-8 3s a game he'd need to be playing a lot more than 20 minutes a game. He was already at 7.0 3PA/36 last year. He had 3.8 3PA in 19.2 mpg. He'd have to pretty much double his current rate or play 30+ a night.
With this lineup, I see him getting plenty of chances but unless he's playing 25+ minutes a night, he's not getting 6-8 attempts.
Half the three point attempts attempted by the Celtics last year were from Tatum Brown and Pritchard, and they made them at 39%. The Celtics were tenth in the league in three-point percentage and in the league three point percentage. Kemba shot below team average, on high volume. Fournier played 1-4th of the season.
The Celtics need to improve from two, where they were 17th in percentage, and in getting to the line, where they were 25th
The Celtics need to improve from two, where they were 17th in percentage, and in getting to the line, where they were 25th
Yeah I don't disagree. I just think Schroder would still be better playing alongside the Jays. Schroder was still "better" playing alongside LeBron. Him and LeBron on the court together were a +9.2 from what I can tell, which was his easily his 2nd best 2 player lineup. Alex Caruso was weirdly first and in a 400 minute sample size no less.
I also see no reason why you can't play both of them with the Jays. I don't see the benefit in starting JRich and I don't think anyone has bothered to go to the plate for him.
It's not impossible but you are talking about a pretty large increase. I think to average 6 3's a game, he'd have to play at least 25 minutes a game. Kemba let it fly and he only averaged 9.3 3s per 36. At 20 minutes a game, that's reduced to 5.2.
Yeah, I don't think we're disagreeing. But NBA players only play around 35 minutes per game now, so if I want at least 2 of Jay/Jay/DS on the court at once, which I think is the best way to optimize the full 48, there's not a lot of time available to run out all 3, so if DS does start, I'd want him subbed out at like the 4 minute mark so he can sub back in when Brown or Tatum takes their 1st rest.
Alternatively, if they did start JRich instead of DS, they could just sub him in for whichever of Smart/JRich was less effective at the 4 minute mark & go from there.
Overall the roster still has questions about rotations, playing time and offensive production but the '21-22 C's have a shot to be a very good defensive team. Having both Schroder and Smart on the court along with Tatum, Brown and Horford (and the other wings...and there are now some other wings!!!!) should make the Cs very tough to face. I know people love the actual basket part of basketball however the prospect of the C's pitching shutouts for several sequences in a row as Smart and Schroder terrorize the opposition while Tatum, Horford and Brown use their limbs to form a sixth defender is something I cannot wait to see.
Thanks. I think everyone would take that, but obviously still an open question how much Pritchard plays next year.
I think the bolded is the opposite of what will happen. If Smart starts at PG, he will understand that his job is to be the PG. He'll be in the position of receiving the inital pass and having up a shot less often, because he'll be the guy making the initial pass more often. The year he shot the least (and had the highest three point percentage of his career) was 2018-19, the season he was surrounded by the most offensive talent. Last year, he shot more, not less, when the Celtics were shorthanded.
The real question is not "which one plays better with the Jays" but rather which one plays better without them. That might be Schroder because he can drive. It might not, because maybe without the Jays around the perimeter maybe teams can just clog up the paint. But that is the question. Certainly, if the question is "Which guy (Schroder or Smart) is better in a high usage role?" the answer has got to be Schroder.
I have PP pegged in for around 20 mpg after factoring for injuries/rest and everything else. If Nesmith is lights out from 3 and can defend a little, it may impact PP's time some. PP looked a bit better as a distributor last night but with Schroder now on board, that's less of a need. So even if he has improved in that area, PP will probably be mostly used as a shooter. RL could factor in some too. I don't see PP and DS being a thing too often either, which would limit PP's minutes some.
I don't think PBS is done yet either. Nothing big will happen but I can't see Jabari or Dunn here. I could see Carsen or Grant being moved out as well.
I think PP certainly has enough offensive abilities to play 20 mpg, or more. The shooting alone gets him time. I think he'll play less because of defense though.
I'm with you on this. Smart's best role is high energy Sixth Man and he should be forced to go back to that role.
Less 5-15 FG games from him would be a big help; his last month of shooting was particularly bad.
The idea that Smart will make better offensive decisions when paired with weaker offensive players is not borne out by the data, our observations and logic. Asking Smart to create not just more offense for others but himself too, by virtue of putting him with bench players, seems counterintuitive but I may be missing something. Is the idea that Smart's bad shooting won't hurt as much with the second unit or simply that it doesn't take away from better players? Because if the argument is the latter, the numbers do not support it.
That's my take as well, and why I think Schroder off the bench and Smart starting makes sense.
This. Smart’s history suggests he’ll be less inclined to bad decisions if he is playing with better talent.
Who is the other guard if these guys are not playing at the same time? Richardson?
Let me rephrase this question so as to not conflate it with starting and minutes and other such discussions. Who are the five players that we should expect to be closing close games?
What we are missing is that we are going to only go as far as The Jays take us. Who will put Tatum and Jaylen in the best positions to score the ball? Who is most capable of getting to their spot with the dribble to deliver the ball to them in their sweet spot? This is why acquiring Schroeder fills a crucial need on this team.
It's the idea that playing less and taking shots away from the Jays solves multiple problems.
read this article, does Schroder have a 6' 8" wingspan?
warming up to a defender that is quick enough to guard small PGs and pick up on-ball defense over the halfcourt line
https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2021/08/11/boston-celtics-dennis-schroder-provides/3/
Schroder is great at pickpocketing careless bigs or stripping loose ball-handlers, leveraging his 6-8 wingspan to overwhelm opposing creators.
Schroder has a very high motor, often picking up opposing guards in a full-court press, and possesses high caliber screen navigation to keep up with screen-heavy guards. He’s positionally aware and is very good at denying the ball, often leading to steals that ignite transition plays.
The only weakness in Schroder’s defensive game is his size and his underwhelming help instincts.
At 6-3, 172 pounds, he can quickly be taken advantage of by bigger creators in the post or when going downhill.
warming up to a defender that is quick enough to guard small PGs and pick up on-ball defense over the halfcourt line
https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2021/08/11/boston-celtics-dennis-schroder-provides/3/
Schroder is great at pickpocketing careless bigs or stripping loose ball-handlers, leveraging his 6-8 wingspan to overwhelm opposing creators.
Schroder has a very high motor, often picking up opposing guards in a full-court press, and possesses high caliber screen navigation to keep up with screen-heavy guards. He’s positionally aware and is very good at denying the ball, often leading to steals that ignite transition plays.
The only weakness in Schroder’s defensive game is his size and his underwhelming help instincts.
At 6-3, 172 pounds, he can quickly be taken advantage of by bigger creators in the post or when going downhill.
Closing 5 may well be match up dependent, but it wouldn't be surprising to see DS/MS/JB/JT and one of TL/AH. And I'm not suggesting that the starting lineup won't change either, but that I would start with DS coming off the bench. So much remains to be seen.
We keep saying this around here, and I keep pushing back. I must be missing something.
A guy taking 7 3PA per game takes 21 in three games. If he hits 7 of them, we think that he sucks at 33%. If he hits 8 of them, we think that he's fucking great at 38%. It's a one shot difference, or three points over three games.
If it's a guy whose only job or primary job is shooter, then it's a problem. But if Smart is locking down 2-4, and Schroeder is creating off the dribble, the Jays' lives are infinitely easier. Missing one more shot every three games than you make is not a sticking point.
Yeah but if Smart, JRich and DS are shooting 33%, that's now 9 points over 3 games, or an an extra 3 every game.
Players may sag off them more and pay closer attention to JT and JB as well.
If those three are on the court at the same time as the Jays and taking 7 threes each every game, sure. That's not reality though.
DS and JRich will be closer to 5 and Smart will be closer to 6. They will be getting plenty of attempts between the 3 of them. I'd guess at least 15 a game. How many 3 point attempts do you think the 3 will average combined/game?
The only time Schroeder has reached 4 per game was in OKC when he had free reign. Pretty much same thing with JRich having only been over 4.5 the year he led Miami in FGA.
Even then, it's going to be far more than 7 3PA between the 3 of them. Give DS 3.5, JRich 4.5 and Smart 5.5 and you are at 13.5 a game. That's close to 2 points per at 33 instead of 38. C's victory of margin last year was 1.4, so even 1 point per game is a bit.
People who think that Smart is going to come off the bench should re-read Ime's comments posted above. Ime is putting the ball in Smart's hands even more. He's going to be the starting PG and hopefully Ime will keep him focused on PG stuff, not hero ball.
I'm also super excited to see Smart and Schroder play defense together as I think they will feed off of each other. After watching last year's terrible defensive team, it will be great to see them back at the top of the defensive metrics, which by my thinking they should absolutely be.
Josh at 30mpg shoots 4.5. DS at 30mpg shoots between 3.5 and 5. Smart at 30mpg between 4.5 and 6.5. So maintaining those averages would be like 14, but do they need to take that many on a deep team? And are we sure that JRich shoots .330 like last year or .358 like his career average? Hell DS shot .385 the year before on 5 attempts.
I think that were talking about 10-12 3PA per game from that group, somewhere between 32 and 36%. And if they add in the other areas described above, then we're good.
Sure, if they each yack 5 per game and shoot career lows and Nesmith was a mirage, then we're fucked. Which is possible, but feels unlikely.
I think DS is going to be considerably better, but that's based off his career shooting % from 16 to 3, which was over .430 if I remember correctly. He's also an excellent FT shooter. I also doubt the 3 of them will shoot 33% as a whole, but if it does happen, it will impact the team some. I'd guess they are closer to 35-36%.