SB53: Pats vs. Rams Buildup

[steveluck7]

So McVay totally exaggerated the “text relationship” with Bill. He was asked on the podium and now again on stage next to Bill and he downplayed it as “a text after we won a game.”
He’s been in a media market that doesn’t give a damn and now he’s on the national stage. I think he’s learning how everything he says is gonna be dissected by the media

 

[E5 Yaz]

Of all the guys to talk trash, it's the guy at the center of the Rams-Saints play?

 

[soxhop411]

Thanks Nickell Robey-Coleman. That's all Brady needs right there is more reason to feel doubted. I mean, are people still this stupid?

Robey-Coleman said he sees ways to get to Brady “all over the place” and that the quarterback “will slowly start to reveal himself” if the Rams defense can stay connected. What will be revealed? Robey-Coleman faced Brady several times over four years with the Bills and thinks the current version is noticeably different.

“Yes. Yes. Age has definitely taken a toll. For him to still be doing it, that’s a great compliment for him. But I think that he’s definitely not the same quarterback he was,” Robey-Coleman said. “Movement. Speed. Velocity. Arm strength. He still can sling it, but he’s not slinging it as much. Whatever he was doing—because of his age and all that—he’s not doing as much of that anymore. He’s still doing the same things; he’s just not doing as much of it. And sometimes, it’s not the sharpest. But it still gets done.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/28/nickell-robey-coleman-age-has-taken-a-toll-on-tom-brady/

Well Jules thinks he's too old.

Seriously. These guys never learn.

Of all the guys to talk trash, it's the guy at the center of the Rams-Saints play?

He says today that his quotes were “taken out of context”

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/28/robey-coleman-says-brady-age-comments-were-taken-out-of-context/

 

[Adrian's Dome]

"Taken out of context" after he got absolutely blasted for them at practice, I'd wager.

 

[Blue Monkey]

Guess Gronk’s back is feeling alright.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

And what context did the reporter miss? We’re all ears, bro.

What he really means is ‘I got fucking yelled at so I’m trying to bury this’

 

[snowmanny]

And what context did the reporter miss? We’re all ears, bro.

What he really means is ‘I got fucking yelled at so I’m trying to bury this’

Yes it's hard to take 15 consecutive sentences out of context

 

[steveluck7]

Gronk wins media night!
Michael Irvin goes up to his podium and grabs him. Gronk goes “now I’m motorboating you.”

 

[Ralphwiggum]

My wife just now: Did he say motorboat? Doesn’t that mean putting your face between someone’s tits?

 

[Marciano490]

My wife just now: Did he say motorboat? Doesn’t that mean putting your face between someone’s tits?

It’s a bit more complex than that.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

It’s a bit more complex than that.

Yes but that was her exact quote after hearing Gronk.

 

[RedOctober3829]

DMac said he may retire if they win Sunday.

 

[brandonchristensen]

DMac said he may retire if they win Sunday.

Doh

 

[Ed Hillel]

Doh

Frees up 11 million, wouldn’t be the worst thing from a roster perspective.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Pretty sure he isn’t coming back at that cap number, yeah. And he might not be interested in playing for the Pats at 5-6M or anyone else at all.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Guerrero right at TB12’s hip pocket walking off the podium.

I bet he has the virgin blood in a flask, at the ready.

 

[Saints Rest]

Frees up 11 million, wouldn’t be the worst thing from a roster perspective.

And that money goes to Earl Thomas.

 

[Marciano490]

Yes but that was her exact quote after hearing Gronk.

Just making sure you took the time to explain the full procedure. I abhor ignorance.

 

[SMU_Sox]

And that money goes to Earl Thomas.

I’m not saying no here but I think Flowers needs his money first and/or Trent Brown. If DMCand Gronk retire that would free up 21million. Not sure I like that outcome but that’s the math. Definitely don’t want DMC to go just yet.

 

[Saints Rest]

They likely could sign both Flowers and Brown even without Gronk or DMC retiring. Per Miguel, they are looking at just under $18M for 2019. Cutting D Allen and A Clayborn yields a bit over $10M more. That would likely be enough to sign TF and TB, and still leave room for rookies.
FTR, Miguel projects Brown at 4/$52.

 

[Super Nomario]

They likely could sign both Flowers and Brown even without Gronk or DMC retiring. Per Miguel, they are looking at just under $18M for 2019. Cutting D Allen and A Clayborn yields a bit over $10M more. That would likely be enough to sign TF and TB, and still leave room for rookies.
FTR, Miguel projects Brown at 4/$52.

It's possible, but the problem is it provides very little wiggle room elsewhere in the roster. WR is thin with Dorsett, Hogan, and Patterson all free agents. DL is thin with Malcom Brown and Shelton hitting free agency. They would have a hard time fitting low-to-mid tier depth signings and trades under the cap. I don't see them bringing back both guys.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

They likely could sign both Flowers and Brown even without Gronk or DMC retiring. Per Miguel, they are looking at just under $18M for 2019. Cutting D Allen and A Clayborn yields a bit over $10M more. That would likely be enough to sign TF and TB, and still leave room for rookies.
FTR, Miguel projects Brown at 4/$52.

Sorry, but since when does TB mean Trent Brown?!

 

[Mooch]

This article filled me with all sorts of irrational confidence: https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/01/29/super-bowl-liii-patriots-key-victory

 

[Saints Rest]

Sorry, but since when does TB mean Trent Brown?!

When I'm typing on my phone and writing post abut Trent Brown.
But point very well taken

 

[Saints Rest]

It's possible, but the problem is it provides very little wiggle room elsewhere in the roster. WR is thin with Dorsett, Hogan, and Patterson all free agents. DL is thin with Malcom Brown and Shelton hitting free agency. They would have a hard time fitting low-to-mid tier depth signings and trades under the cap. I don't see them bringing back both guys.

Fair points. And Miguel opined that Brown will get his money elsewhere.

 

[Carmine Hose]

I doubt they pay Brown with Wynn coming back. Flowers will be interesting. I assume they will try to extend for him, but a team like the Colts has so much cap space that they can outbid us and not be a losing outlook for Flowers, especially if the Pats win and Flowers gets another ring.

 

[Blue Monkey]

Getting really tired of hearing McVay talk. Dude can’t shut up

 

[Marbleheader]

If Gronk and DMac retire, that is quite a bit of cap room to go into the offseason with once you figure Dwayne Allen and possibly Clayborn are out as well. Around $50M.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Getting really tired of hearing McVay talk. Dude can’t shut up

Maybe because they keep asking him questions? I heard Jared Goff get asked a doozy, something like "do you think it's an advantage for quarterbacks to be fiery or have a type A personality?" Obviously asked because he's pretty laid back, at least on the outside. Worst question at a SB ever was to Doug Williams and it was "how long have you been a black quarterback?"

 

[Super Nomario]

If Gronk and DMac retire, that is quite a bit of cap room to go into the offseason with once you figure Dwayne Allen and possibly Clayborn are out as well. Around $50M.

Would be a ton of holes to fill, too, though. 6/14 in most offensive snaps (Brown, Gronk, Hogan, Gordon, Dorsett, Allen, with Patterson not far off) and 5/12 most in defensive (both McCourtys, Flowers, JJones, Malcom Brown, with Shelton / Clayborn / Simon not far off). Some of those they have internal options, but $50 MM isn't going to go real far replacing like a dozen guys.

 

[Mooch]

In Jared Goff's last 7 games he has thrown 7 TDs and 7 INTs for a 75 passer rating. He also went 5 TD, 0 INT for a 127 raing against the Cardinals and the 49ers in that stretch, so he was absolutely god awful against the Lions, Bears, Eagles, Cowboys and Saints. I like Goff as a player, but I think he peaked a lot earlier in the season and the stage might be a little too big for him. The Pats also bring a lot of pressure, so I'm expecting some struggles. And if he struggles, the Patriots win this one, possibly by a bigger margin than we're used to in Super Bowls. I'd be stunned if he managed to keep up with Brady like Mahomes did.

I was just looking at his stats since the bye as well. Hoo boy, he's been pretty terrible. Not just the TD/INT ratio but his 59% completions, 232 yards per game, 6.55 YPA -- That's Joe Flacco-level terrible. Goff hasn't been a good QB for almost half a season.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I doubt they pay Brown with Wynn coming back. Flowers will be interesting. I assume they will try to extend for him, but a team like the Colts has so much cap space that they can outbid us and not be a losing outlook for Flowers, especially if the Pats win and Flowers gets another ring.

I’ve been fearing a Jets godfather offer for Flowers. Weaken your competition and nab a top player in his prime.

 

[tims4wins]

Getting really tired of hearing McVay talk. Dude can’t shut up

It is only going to get worse if the Rams win. I like the guy, and he deserves the hype, but if the Rams win this game you are going to see a ton of him this offseason.

 

[Blue Monkey]

It is only going to get worse if the Rams win. I like the guy, and he deserves the hype, but if the Rams win this game you are going to see a ton of him this offseason.

Well it seems like there’s only one thing to do then.

 

[DJnVa]

Well it seems like there’s only one thing to do then.

 

[Saints Rest]

I doubt they pay Brown with Wynn coming back. Flowers will be interesting. I assume they will try to extend for him, but a team like the Colts has so much cap space that they can outbid us and not be a losing outlook for Flowers, especially if the Pats win and Flowers gets another ring.

Another possibility is to cut Cannon (about $7.5M savings) and put Wynn at RT while re-signing Brown.

 

[Saints Rest]

I’ve been fearing a Jets godfather offer for Flowers. Weaken your competition and nab a top player in his prime.

Will there be cupcakes?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Will there be cupcakes?

Yes.

WITH sprinkles...

 

[tims4wins]

Another possibility is to cut Cannon (about $7.5M savings) and put Wynn at RT while re-signing Brown.

I'm on board with this

 

[8slim]

I’ve been fearing a Jets godfather offer for Flowers. Weaken your competition and nab a top player in his prime.

If the Jets do that it basically ensures that he'll either get a catastrophic injury or add 60 pounds.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Yeah, Flowers is going to the Jets. I’ve had that pegged for a while.

Another possibility is to cut Cannon (about $7.5M savings) and put Wynn at RT while re-signing Brown.

Cannon has 3 mil in dead money, and he’s been really good, so I doubt they let him go to save 4.5 million, unless they pay Brown a ton and absolutely have to use the money. A trade could be possible, though.

Would be a ton of holes to fill, too, though. 6/14 in most offensive snaps (Brown, Gronk, Hogan, Gordon, Dorsett, Allen, with Patterson not far off) and 5/12 most in defensive (both McCourtys, Flowers, JJones, Malcom Brown, with Shelton / Clayborn / Simon not far off). Some of those they have internal options, but $50 MM isn't going to go real far replacing like a dozen guys.

Eh, there isn’t a ton of talent on the offensive side there, assuming 2019 production. Like would anyone be surprised if Braxton Berrios came in and gave 500 yards with Brady? They’ll probably re-sign at least one on the cheap, too.

The big issues are Flowers, Gronk, DMac, and Gostkowsi, but you’re freeing up a lot of money and Gost can be franchised. Given they have 12 picks, and a bunch before round 4, I think odds are pretty good they can field a comparable or better team next year. The big issue is Flowers. I don’t see how he’s re-signed or replaced. They’ll need to make up for it elsewhere, maybe on the edge with someone replacing Clayborn and his terrible production.

 

[Super Nomario]

Eh, there isn’t a ton of talent on the offensive side there, assuming 2019 production. Like would anyone be surprised if Braxton Berrios came in and gave 500 yards with Brady? They’ll probably re-sign at least one on the cheap, too.

I would be pretty surprised if Berrios did that. He's a sixth-round pick who redshirted this year; they can't count on him for anything.

Individually, other than Brown and Gronk, that list of offensive guys isn't super-difficult to replace; it's more the collective effect. Gronk, Gordon, Hogan, Dorsett, and Patterson were 3-7 on the team in targets / receptions / receiving yards (in some order); they comprise about 56% of team's receiving yards this year. That's a lot to replace. And they don't have much waiting in the wings: Berrios, Riley McCarron, Darren Andrews, Cody Hollister. If Gronk retires and they cut Dwayne Allen, it's basically the whole WR and TE group turning over apart from Edelman, who turns 33 in a few months. Yikes.

The big issues are Flowers, Gronk, DMac, and Gostkowsi, but you’re freeing up a lot of money and Gost can be franchised. Given they have 12 picks, and a bunch before round 4, I think odds are pretty good they can field a comparable or better team next year. The big issue is Flowers. I don’t see how he’s re-signed or replaced. They’ll need to make up for it elsewhere, maybe on the edge with someone replacing Clayborn and his terrible production.

They were also really healthy this year. WRs (once the season started) were basically healthy all year when not suspended. They got 13 games from Gronk. The OL missed five games total. The most prominent names on IR on D were Eric Rowe and Ja'Whaun Bentley; no one else missed more than a game or two. So they could have a better team on paper entering next year and easily fare worse in terms of who winds up playing on Sundays. I think it's easy coming off a year of good health to underestimate the importance of depth.

 

[j44thor]

Was just reading that McVay is 8-0 in his career vs. AFC.
Doesn't mean a lot but surprised this hasn't become a bigger talking point.

 

[Ed Hillel]

They were also really healthy this year. WRs (once the season started) were basically healthy all year when not suspended. They got 13 games from Gronk. The OL missed five games total. The most prominent names on IR on D were Eric Rowe and Ja'Whaun Bentley; no one else missed more than a game or two. So they could have a better team on paper entering next year and easily fare worse in terms of who winds up playing on Sundays. I think it's easy coming off a year of good health to underestimate the importance of depth.

The OL missed 21 games total, if you count Wynn, who was also the most prominent name on IR. Not sure if he’d have been a big upgrade, though it’s quite possible he’d have taken Cannon’s spot the way he was being used in preseason and training camp, and with Cannon’s early injuries.

Honestly, I’m never really concerned about Belichick finding some decent WR for cheap and Brady making that player better. Gronk is a loss, but would you trade his 2018 production for 10+ million? Tough call, but it’s not like prior year where it’s some massive dropoff. Edelman’s going to drop off or retire soon, but I think he has 1-2 years left.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Was just reading that McVay is 8-0 in his career vs. AFC.
Doesn't mean a lot but surprised this hasn't become a bigger talking point.

Rams swept the 4 AFC South teams last year and the 4 AFC West teams this year.

 

[BaseballJones]

I was just looking at his stats since the bye as well. Hoo boy, he's been pretty terrible. Not just the TD/INT ratio but his 59% completions, 232 yards per game, 6.55 YPA -- That's Joe Flacco-level terrible. Goff hasn't been a good QB for almost half a season.

Let's do the statistically prudent thing and eliminate his best and worst of those seven data points.

Best (vs SF): 15-26, 199 yds, 4 td, 0 int, 121.6 rating
Worst (at Chi): 20-44, 180 yds, 0 td, 4 int, 19.1 rating

That leaves five games:

at Det: 17-33, 207 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 68.6 rating
vs Phi: 35-53, 339 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 75.9 rating
at Ari: 19-24, 216 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 118.1 rating
vs Dal: 15-28, 186 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 74.4 rating
at NO: 25-40, 297 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 83.0 rating
TOT: 111-178 (62.4%), 1,245 yds (7.0 y/a), 3 td, 3 int, 81.8 rating

So just one of the five games with a rating better than 83.0. But the team, over those five games, still averaged 28 points a game. So they're still getting it done.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@Super Nomario brings up a greater point which I am sure once SB is over we will start getting into but that is free agency season is a month and a half away and then after that is the draft. But the team could look drastically different as early as next year but definitely after 2019 when multiple key contracts expire for guys who would be getting long in the tooth. I imagine they might retain some of their WRs as transitional depth pieces like Hogan. CP84 was a fun addition but he's more a swiss army knife gadget type player. He adds utility but route running was never his strongest trait. I would be shocked if they didn't grab a WR and/or TE with 1-3 of their top picks. It's not too early yet anymore to say that there are a lot of good day 2 receivers. Same for TEs. This is the year to pull that trigger because the valuation should match where they would be picking AND they have a short and long term need there. The drama and excitement never ends.

 

[Saints Rest]

That Chicago game really jumps out at how bad Goff was. Couple that with the Detroit game (I wonder how much, if any, BB would call on Patricia for first-hand intel) and you have a couple of games worth studying intently.

Of course, the Rams have to be studying the Pats/Lions game pretty intensely as well.

Speaking of the Chicago game, I saw a TV pundit talking about how the Pats attacked the Chicago D-line could be indicative of how they go after Donald (and Such, presumably, but the pundit only mentioned Donald) through the use of lots of wham-blocks from Gronk and Allen on running plays. It's the way to create running lanes up the middle.

Which Pats game was it where they gained a TON of rushing yards via jet sweeps, not just with Patterson, but also with Edelman and Dorsett? I expect we will see a lot of those.

 

[Mooch]

Let's do the statistically prudent thing and eliminate his best and worst of those seven data points.

Best (vs SF): 15-26, 199 yds, 4 td, 0 int, 121.6 rating
Worst (at Chi): 20-44, 180 yds, 0 td, 4 int, 19.1 rating

That leaves five games:

at Det: 17-33, 207 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 68.6 rating
vs Phi: 35-53, 339 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 75.9 rating
at Ari: 19-24, 216 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 118.1 rating
vs Dal: 15-28, 186 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 74.4 rating
at NO: 25-40, 297 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 83.0 rating
TOT: 111-178 (62.4%), 1,245 yds (7.0 y/a), 3 td, 3 int, 81.8 rating

So just one of the five games with a rating better than 83.0. But the team, over those five games, still averaged 28 points a game. So they're still getting it done.

Good post. You're correct that they're still putting up points but an 81.8 QB rating puts him squarely between Joe Flacco and Case Keenum. I still think the key to the Super Bowl is shutting down the running game and making Goff beat you by going through his progressions. He's not that great after the initial read.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Gronk is 35:1 odds to win MVP. People like Greg Bedard are picking him to have a big game but I actually think he’s going to be heavily involved in blocking and the running game, like the Chargers game. Maybe 6-7 targets, 3-4 catches in the passing game.