Sale's Return - When and in What Capacity?

Philip Jeff Frye

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Oct 23, 2001
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Sale isn't starting until Saturday against the Orioles, which means a week of rest since his last rehab start. I guess the brain trust is really punting on the season. No sense of urgency at all. Not saying it's the wrong decision after the failure to do much at the trade deadline and the terrible play lately, but disappointing nonetheless.
 

JimD

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If this team is to have any shot of reaching October and making some noise, Chris Sale needs to stay healthy and avoid any setbacks. I get that everyone is down on the FO right now, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt here and trust that they are following a plan designed to give their ace the best chance at a successful comeback.
 

soxhop411

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For those wondering WTF Chris Sale was wearing at his post game press conference…

Here you go
Chris Sale has a good luck charm. His name is Daddy Long Neck.

Following Sale’s latest rehab start in Worcester — a five-inning, one-run effort against the Buffalo Bisons— the seven-time All-Star spoke with reporters outside of Polar Park. While most of the questions focused on baseball, there was at least one inquiry about his unconventional post-game attire.

Sale’s tank top featured a very tall — or long — skinny individual without any sort of muscle mass. Introducing: Daddy Long Neck.

“He might be the only person in the country who can make me feel jacked,” Sale joked.
For those who aren’t aware, Daddy Long Neck is a viral social media star who has Marfan Syndrome — a rare condition that prevents people from gaining weight.

He boasts more than 1.8 million followers on Instagram and an OnlyFans page.
https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/chris-sale-wore-bizarre-yet-amazing-tank-top
 

Sprowl

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For those of us that couldn’t watch…. Please provide analysis on his performance if you can
Sale showed decent velocity on the fastball (91-96, averaging 93.3), with better-than-decent command of the fastball, spotting it consistently just outside the strike zone. Sale threw more changeups than sliders, and didn't seem to spot the slider as well as Sale v2017, but well enough to leave the Orioles talking to themselves.

Sale had a few location errors in the third inning, leading to two home runs, one on a grooved middle-middle changeup, and the other on a grooved middle-middle fastball. For the most part, however, he moved the ball around, while managing to throw strikes when he needed to (plenty of 3-2 counts, but zero walks).
 

mfried

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The 17 foul balls mostly resulted from lower-velocity fastballs, and contributed to the 5-inning ceiling on a basically good though not overwhelming performance. We have to see him vs. a stronger offensive team to judge the strength of his contribution going forward.
 

Apisith

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Lower than peak velocity will mean he’ll have to adjust his pitching mix, maybe increase the slider usage. From reading about previous returns from TJ, it doesn’t look like velocity will return. It’s probably due to him being older as well. But, at least he looks like he’ll be better than Richards which is what’s needed for the final stretch. I’ll be happy with an ERA <4. We just need to be competitive in every game and not have the offense be under massive pressure to score 6 runs every game.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/05/18/chris-sale-has-improved-but-that-may-not-last/

Something to keep in mind is that in 2016 Sale decided to lower his velocity and pitch to contact. He threw more fastballs but threw them slower, and as a result threw a career high innings (226). But, his FIP and xFIP were a career worst. He was still worth 5.3 wins. I’m hoping he can settle into being that kind of pitcher going forward, although there’s uncertainty over how the juiced ball and the launch angle revolution will affect the pitch to contact strategy.
 
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cornwalls@6

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I was at the game yesterday, and though TV is the best way to analyze, unless you’re sitting very close, I’d echo the last few posts. Respectable fastball velocity, though not peak. A few command issues, but he was able work through them with minimal damage. Off speed stuff, both sliders and change ups, really stood out to me as being pretty sharp. I think Cora pulled him at the right time, and all and all, for his first MLB outing in 2 years, hard to not come away very encouraged. And despite the stifling heat, great crowd and atmosphere.
 

YTF

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I was at the game yesterday, and though TV is the best way to analyze, unless you’re sitting very close, I’d echo the last few posts. Respectable fastball velocity, though not peak. A few command issues, but he was able work through them with minimal damage. Off speed stuff, both sliders and change ups, really stood out to me as being pretty sharp. I think Cora pulled him at the right time, and all and all, for his first MLB outing in 2 years, hard to not come away very encouraged. And despite the stifling heat, great crowd and atmosphere.
1000% Was there room for improvement? Sure, but I don't think anyone should have expected more than what we saw yesterday. I can't breakdown performance like many others here can, but through the first four innings (I wasn't able to see the fifth) his delivery looked very fluid and consistent and while he ran into a little trouble, he didn't really seem to labor out there. I also think that the 89 pitches thrown in this first outing was very encouraging.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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It seemed to me like he couldn’t spot the slider the way he wanted to - left a bunch of arm-side sliders in non-competitive outside locations and seemed reluctant to bury it inside to righties the way he’s gotten outs in the past. At times, he looked to he nibbling in uncharacteristic ways.

I didn’t love the gameplan Vaz put together, though. Eck questioned it a couple times as well. Seemed overreliant on the change. But maybe he was seeing that the slider wasn’t there. Hard to say.
 

Shaky Walton

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Sale's demeanor and answers in his post game press conference were pretty remarkable. I don't recall all that many pro athletes who expressed more gratitude to those around him for helping him come back or true appreciation for the chance to compete in the majors after a long lay off.

He's good to have back in every way.

And I loved that he seemed to be holding back on the gas and relying more on location. That should help keep him on the mound longer.
 

Rovin Romine

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Lower than peak velocity will mean he’ll have to adjust his pitching mix, maybe increase the slider usage. From reading about previous returns from TJ, it doesn’t look like velocity will return. It’s probably due to him being older as well.
The authors found 80 pitchers. Compared to before surgery, the pitchers decreased fastball velocity (91.3 mph vs. 90.6 mph) and threw fastballs less frequently (65% vs. 60% of pitches) after surgery. However, pitchers experienced no changes in velocity with other pitch types. Furthermore, the fastballs seemed to be typically replaced by sliders (18% pre-surgery vs. 20% post-surgery). Pitchers older than 35 years had the most significant decrease in fastball velocity after surgery, as these pitchers lost almost 3 mph from their fastball (92 vs. 89 mph). Pitchers had a decrease in pitching workload after UCL reconstruction. However, pitchers had similar performance before and after surgery based on rate statistics, which account for workload (e.g., earned run average, walks plus hits per inning pitched, walks per 9 innings).
From https://www.sportsmedres.org/slower-fastballs-after-tommy-john-surgery-no-matter-velocity-isnt-everything/
 

YTF

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Lower than peak velocity will mean he’ll have to adjust his pitching mix, maybe increase the slider usage. From reading about previous returns from TJ, it doesn’t look like velocity will return. It’s probably due to him being older as well. But, at least he looks like he’ll be better than Richards which is what’s needed for the final stretch. I’ll be happy with an ERA <4. We just need to be competitive in every game and not have the offense be under massive pressure to score 6 runs every game.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/05/18/chris-sale-has-improved-but-that-may-not-last/

Something to keep in mind is that in 2016 Sale decided to lower his velocity and pitch to contact. He threw more fastballs but threw them slower, and as a result threw a career high innings (226). But, his FIP and xFIP were a career worst. He was still worth 5.3 wins. I’m hoping he can settle into being that kind of pitcher going forward, although there’s uncertainty over how the juiced ball and the launch angle revolution will affect the pitch to contact strategy.
Just a quick thought on this. This reminds me of when we hear announcers speak of certain pitchers becoming better and more complete pitchers as they get older. Learning a new pitch or making other adjustments when they lose a few miles of their fastball. Of course most of the guys in that category are likely pretty damn good before needing to make that adjustment. I'm guessing the same might be similar those for who see a good deal of success after coming out of TJ surgery. Anyone with his mind set and skill level should be able to figure things out and thrive once again as long as the arm holds up.
 

soxhop411

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“I live down in Florida so we’re outside all the freakin time,” Sale said. “Basketball court, whiffle ball, I mean we definitely killed the time. And I’ve taught myself how to throw right-handed because my oldest son was right in the middle of baseball season. I can’t not throw. And so I can actually get to about 90 feet with it. Just playing catch in the backyard, too. With a whiffle ball — we play with the old school whiffle balls with the holes on half of it. I got a nasty right hand.”

Unfortunately for Sale’s son, the starter didn’t hold back while pitching to him. That’s no surprise though. Sale is a competitive guy, to say the least.

“I know he’s 10 but he’s gotta to learn,” Sale said, only half-joking. “He was equally as relentless on me, put it that way.”
Im dying at this
 

soxhop411

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View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1431092045775507456
Sale hit 98 mph after the home run. Why? “That’s the most pissed I’ve been on a baseball field in a while… I call those FU fastballs.l
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1431089895523725312

View: https://twitter.com/MacCerullo/status/1431090661449678853

Chris Sale on his outing tonight: "It was good enough."

Was pretty upset about giving up the home run to Astudillo in the fifth, which is part of why he started bringing the high 90s heat in the sixth. It was a combo of proper mechanics and "a little bit of hate." #RedSox
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I only was able to watch the highlights but from those and his box score.... it looks to me like.... Chris Fucking Sale is BACK!!! And rested! I'm not feeling that creeping worry about his historical "late season collapse" that we experienced (and the White Sox too) in prior seasons.
The offense seems to slowly (JDM being the exception) being unfucking itself. Pairing Sale and Eovaldi at the top of the playoff rotation is starting to get me more optimistic.
It's still not enough..... we need Rodriguez to be the Good EdRo at least, and one of Houck or Pivetta to be good enough.
The bullpen is the most worrisome at this point. I'm going to assume that Pivetta will get the no. 4 spot (assuming a playoff rotation) with Houck going into the bullpen which should help considerably keeping both him and Whitlock as 2 or 3 inning arms. We still need at least Barnes to rebound and for Smith to look like he did from May-July.
Lots of "ifs"... more than the other contenders. But seeing Sale last night boosted my optimism level from 5 to 7 on a 10 scale.
 

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The bullpen is the most worrisome at this point. I'm going to assume that Pivetta will get the no. 4 spot (assuming a playoff rotation) with Houck going into the bullpen which should help considerably keeping both him and Whitlock as 2 or 3 inning arms. We still need at least Barnes to rebound and for Smith to look like he did from May-July.
Lots of "ifs"... more than the other contenders. But seeing Sale last night boosted my optimism level from 5 to 7 on a 10 scale.
Carson Smith?
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Seeing the heat was great, but the best sign last night was him getting back to his regular slider mix. When he’s throwing that 35-40 percent of the time, you know he’s feeling it.
 

Apisith

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Fastball velocity today was really good, no? First pitch was 95 and he held it all the way until he finished. Even though he gave up hits and runs, this was against the best offense in baseball. The slider wasn't sharp, lots of balls, but he battled through and gave the team a shot. It certainly wasn't vintage Sale but IMO we can live with this version of him.
 

BaseballJones

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Sale's game log since returning:

5.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 8 k
5.0 ip, 5 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 5 k
5.1 ip, 2 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 8 k
6.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 3 k

TOT: 21.1 ip, 18 h, 6 r, 6 er, 5 bb, 24 k, 2.53 era, 1.08 whip, 10.1 k/9

Not bad. Not bad at all.
 

CJM

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Please tear this apart as warranted, but does anyone think Sale is a bit less than the sum of his parts?

He’s often transcendent while pitching, but his style—high strikeout, pitch away from contact—means he burns a ton of pitches per inning.

Looking at MLB’s pitches/per inning metric, Sale was outside the top-30 in his terrific 2017, and outside the top-50/60 in 18 and 19. His return this year, limited though it’s been, continues the trend.

There are a lot of so-so pitchers higher up in these rankings, but you also consistently have your stud aces—Giolito, Buehler, Wheeler, Berrios, Cole, Urias and Gausman are all top-50 this year; Strasburg, Scherzer, Cole, De Grom, Ryu, Verlander, Bieber in 2019.

Sale’s a joy to watch, and I know the game has trended away from starters going deep, but how much of a top-tier ace is he when you so consistently need 3+ innings of bullpen help to win his games?
 

BaseballJones

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He does throw a lot of pitches. But when fully healthy, he throws a ton of innings too. From 2012-2017 he averaged 205 innings a year, and nearly 7 innings per start.

This year, not counting last night, he's averaged 3.90 pitches per plate appearance. For comparison's sake, Cole is averaging 4.11 pitches per PA this year, Scherzer 4.10, and Buehler 3.88.

So Sale is doing fine in that category.
 

CJM

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He does throw a lot of pitches. But when fully healthy, he throws a ton of innings too. From 2012-2017 he averaged 205 innings a year, and nearly 7 innings per start.

This year, not counting last night, he's averaged 3.90 pitches per plate appearance. For comparison's sake, Cole is averaging 4.11 pitches per PA this year, Scherzer 4.10, and Buehler 3.88.

So Sale is doing fine in that category.
Gotcha, thanks @BaseballJones. I know his innings pitched have tumbled a bit the past few years pre-Tommy John, but I didn’t catch the pitches/PA. Good stuff.