Sabres - a perennial Top 10 (drafting) team

[wilked]

With their fifth loss in a row, the Sabres are pushing for third worst record in the league, currently three points out of the Krakens. That means for the tenth year in a row they will have a top 10 pick. Over that period they’ve had the top overall pick twice and the second overall pick twice as well. Which begs the question, is this run of mediocrity sustainable or at some point will they necessarily have to break it with all that young talent?

2013 pick 8 - Rasmus Ristolainen - solid but flawed defenseman, traded for a 2021 1st (#13) and a 2nd. Basically roll the pick forward

2014 pick 2 - Sam Reinhart - Again, solid but not overwhelming player, traded for a prospect and Florida’s 2022 1st (will be #30 or so). They also got young talent Devon Levi who is showing well.

2015 pick 2 - Jack Eichel - stud potential, but injuries have held him back. Traded a few months ago, nice haul. Krebs (former #17 pick 2019) has a bright future, Tuch is a nice piece to add, and they get Vegas pick this year (likely late teens / early 20s) and a 2nd. So again, reset the clock with future picks and young talent.

2016 pick 8 - Alex Nylander - solid but overall underwhelming player. Has been traded twice since. Buffalo got a former 1st rounder back for him (Jokiharju, a solid defenseman). Overall this worked out pretty well for Buffalo.

2017 pick 8 - Casey Middelstadt - Sabes pushed him up quickly, maybe too quickly. He struggled with the pro team and has been up and down since. Nothing special.

2018 pick 1 - Rasmus Dahlin - great start to his career, finished top 3 for the Calder. Future looks bright.

2019 pick 7 - Dylan Cozens - early but this one looks like a miss

2020 pick 8 - Jack Quinn - high potential, looks like a stud

2021 pick 1 - Owen Power - high potential, looks like a stud

And now 2022 they look like they will have three rd 1 picks, something like 3, 17, 30.

With all the above, how do the Sabres flip the switch from rebuild to Cup Contender? How close is this team to actually making a run, or will they instead keep flipping their prospects for picks indefinitely?

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

With their fifth loss in a row, the Sabres are pushing for third worst record in the league, currently three points out of the Krakens. That means for the tenth year in a row they will have a top 10 pick. Over that period they’ve had the top overall pick twice and the second overall pick twice as well. Which begs the question, is this run of mediocrity sustainable or at some point will they necessarily have to break it with all that young talent?

2013 pick 8 - Rasmus Ristolainen - solid but flawed defenseman, traded for a 2021 1st (#13) and a 2nd. Basically roll the pick forward

2014 pick 2 - Sam Reinhart - Again, solid but not overwhelming player, traded for a prospect and Florida’s 2022 1st (will be #30 or so). They also got young talent Devon Levi who is showing well.

2015 pick 2 - Jack Eichel - stud potential, but injuries have held him back. Traded a few months ago, nice haul. Krebs (former #17 pick 2019) has a bright future, Tuch is a nice piece to add, and they get Vegas pick this year (likely late teens / early 20s) and a 2nd. So again, reset the clock with future picks and young talent.

2016 pick 8 - Alex Nylander - solid but overall underwhelming player. Has been traded twice since. Buffalo got a former 1st rounder back for him (Jokiharju, a solid defenseman). Overall this worked out pretty well for Buffalo.

2017 pick 8 - Casey Middelstadt - Sabes pushed him up quickly, maybe too quickly. He struggled with the pro team and has been up and down since. Nothing special.

2018 pick 1 - Rasmus Dahlin - great start to his career, finished top 3 for the Calder. Future looks bright.

2019 pick 7 - Dylan Cozens - early but this one looks like a miss

2020 pick 8 - Jack Quinn - high potential, looks like a stud

2021 pick 1 - Owen Power - high potential, looks like a stud

And now 2022 they look like they will have three rd 1 picks, something kike

With all the above, how dothe Sabres flip the switch from rebuild to Cup Contender? How close is this team to actually making a run, or will they instead keep fliplingtheir

As a Sabres fan, I need to remain hopeful, and to me, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. I think for the first time in many years, the future is exciting. I think you are wrong on Cozens. I love watching him play - he plays hard both ways and just turned 21. I realize he is not Trevor Zegras, but I think I would take Cozens over anyone else selected after him in the 1st round of the 2019 draft. Surround him with some more talent on the wings and I think he can be an all star.

Getting all of their assets to arrive around the same time is the trick, but Cozens and Krebs are ready, with Quinn, Power, and Peterka a year or so away and a bunch of cap space available. If one of UPL (made 54 saves in an AHL game last Friday) or Levi (made 60 saves in Northeastern's game last Friday) turns out to be a passable NHL starting goalie, then they are set up nicely for the years to come. However, they are still the Sabres and still owned by the Pegulas so I try to temper my excitement.

Tuch (25) was a great addition, and Thompson (24) has 40 points on the season and has taken a big step forward. I think if they add 1-2 vets to the top lines and add a thumper or two to the blue line over the next two off-seasons they will be in great shape.

 

[wilked]

As a Sabres fan, I need to remain hopeful, and to me, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. I think for the first time in many years, the future is exciting. I think you are wrong on Cozens. I love watching him play - he plays hard both ways and just turned 21. I realize he is not Trevor Zegras, but I think I would take Cozens over anyone else selected after him in the 1st round of the 2019 draft. Surround him with some more talent on the wings and I think he can be an all star.

Getting all of their assets to arrive around the same time is the trick, but Cozens and Krebs are ready, with Quinn, Power, and Peterka a year or so away and a bunch of cap space available. If one of UPL (made 54 saves in an AHL game last Friday) or Levi (made 60 saves in Northeastern's game last Friday) turns out to be a passable NHL starting goalie, then they are set up nicely for the years to come. However, they are still the Sabres and still owned by the Pegulas so I try to temper my excitement.

Tuch (25) was a great addition, and Thompson (24) has 40 points on the season and has taken a big step forward. I think they if add 1-2 vets to the top lines and add a thumper or two to the blue line over the next two off-seasons they will be in great shape.

If you had to target a year for a run to the Cup…2024?

 

[wilked]

I may have been off on Cozens, did some googling based on your reply. He didn’t impress me the couple games I watched but the Sabes community seems to love him. I’ll revise my review of him to “slow start, but looking promising”

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

If you had to target a year for a run to the Cup…2024?

I think if things break right, 2024 would be a playoff appearance as a bottom seed at most - Tampa and Boston's window may be mostly closed by then which would help. Pens and Caps are probably a bit worse by then too. I am hopeful for them to be a contender in the East by 2025 with multiple deep playoff runs in the few years following.

That seems crazy just typing it.

 

[cshea]

I'd be a bit more conservative. It's very, very difficult to dig out of hole and theirs is extremely deep. Ottawa blew everything up in 2017, acquired a ton of draft picks and embarked on what they called a 5-year plan to contention. It's 5-years later and they still stink despite drafting decently and building a good farm system. Edmonton is still digging out despite having two of the top 5 players in the world. Detroit has the best GM in hockey and are digging out 3-years into his tenure. It's just not easy to turn it around.

I think more than anything they need patience. Part of the reason they are in this mess is because they accelerated at the wrong time and made horrible deals like Skinner and Okposo. The O'Reilly trade was a huge disaster. They had one of the best duos down the middle between Eichel and O'Reilly and moved O'Reilly for no real reason other than he said he was sick of losing. They got back a pile of pucks for him. Thompson is having a nice year counting stats wise, but I'd be cautious about buying in on it being real. His shooting percentage has basically doubled (6.9% for his career to 13.8% this season) and he's getting a whopping 4 more minutes of ice time per game than he had previously. Basically, someone has to be on the ice and someone has to score and he's been the beneficiary. I'd look to sell him to a dumb team for futrues more than consider him as a long term piece.

Another problem is goalies. Anderson is a billion years old. Tokarski stinks. Dell is a journeyman backup. Subban's an AHL guy. We'll see what happens with UPL, but his AHL track record isn't particulary good. Levi looks like the goalie of the future but goalies are very difficult to project long term, and he's probably 4-5 years away at a minimum. There's no better way to sink your team than have bad goaltending.

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

I'd be a bit more conservative. It's very, very difficult to dig out of hole and theirs is extremely deep. Ottawa blew everything up in 2017, acquired a ton of draft picks and embarked on what they called a 5-year plan to contention. It's 5-years later and they still stink despite drafting decently and building a good farm system. Edmonton is still digging out despite having two of the top 5 players in the world. Detroit has the best GM in hockey and are digging out 3-years into his tenure. It's just not easy to turn it around.

I think more than anything they need patience. Part of the reason they are in this mess is because they accelerated at the wrong time and made horrible deals like Skinner and Okposo. The O'Reilly trade was a huge disaster. They had one of the best duos down the middle between Eichel and O'Reilly and moved O'Reilly for no real reason other than he said he was sick of losing. They got back a pile of pucks for him. Thompson is having a nice year counting stats wise, but I'd be cautious about buying in on it being real. His shooting percentage has basically doubled (6.9% for his career to 13.8% this season) and he's getting a whopping 4 more minutes of ice time per game than he had previously. Basically, someone has to be on the ice and someone has to score and he's been the beneficiary. I'd look to sell him to a dumb team for futrues more than consider him as a long term piece.

Another problem is goalies. Anderson is a billion years old. Tokarski stinks. Dell is a journeyman backup. Subban's an AHL guy. We'll see what happens with UPL, but his AHL track record isn't particulary good. Levi looks like the goalie of the future but goalies are very difficult to project long term, and he's probably 4-5 years away at a minimum. There's no better way to sink your team than have bad goaltending.

Oh I definitely do not disagree with anything here. My previous response was with "if things break right" in mind, and agree that it probably all hinges on UPL or Levi breaking through. However, they have one of the top prospect systems in the league (thanks to failure) and a ton of space. Getting a few impact players in the offseason will do wonders to their makeup. Say two of Copp, Burakovsky, Rakell, Manson? The money wouldn't be difficult, but they would need to really sell them on the future. I know, another pie-in-the-sky post. Maybe you wait another off season.

I will admit, I am a huge prospect humper and probably overrate Krebs, Quinn, Peterka, Power, etc. I for one thought Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster would be rotation mainstays for years, and Garin Cecchini would be a perennial all star.

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

BUF - 3, VGK - 1. Eichel held to nothing on only 2 shot attempts, Krebs scored, Tuch scored. Couldn't have scripted it better.

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

Oh I definitely do not disagree with anything here. My previous response was with "if things break right" in mind, and agree that it probably all hinges on UPL or Levi breaking through. However, they have one of the top prospect systems in the league (thanks to failure) and a ton of space. Getting a few impact players in the offseason will do wonders to their makeup. Say two of Copp, Burakovsky, Rakell, Manson? The money wouldn't be difficult, but they would need to really sell them on the future. I know, another pie-in-the-sky post. Maybe you wait another off season.

I will admit, I am a huge prospect humper and probably overrate Krebs, Quinn, Peterka, Power, etc. I for one thought Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster would be rotation mainstays for years, and Garin Cecchini would be a perennial all star.

Since this post, the Sabres are 11-9 (3 OT losses). 15 of those 20 games were against playoff teams where they went 7-8. Owen Power was recently signed and is taking his lumps during his 20+ mpg playing time. If you squint hard enough, the 8th seed could be achievable with the right offseason moves. This team is playing fun, inspired hockey.