Running up that Hill....

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

What say yinz'all to bringing back Hill? He likely won't cost much and can probably be counted on to only pitch about 2/3 of a season at best, but with a decent ERA (he's at 4.41 on the season). If he's not inked into the starting day rotation but more as a long relief guy that'll likely have to step in and make some starts, he's fine. But is he worth $5M or so? Isn't this what a good mL system should have? I don't expect Mata to look like Bello, but can he be expected to approximate Rich Hill in '22? That's actually pretty difficult. Both Crawford (who I'm bullish on as a "no. 4" type) and Winckowski (no. 5) should be able to but I think it's a more difficult call than one would first assume.

 

[streeter88]

Sure. Third most wins on the team; serviceable ERA; and the government is rolling out incentives to provide jobs for senior citizens. What’s not to like?

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

I’d rather spend the money and try to improve, rather than maintain status quo

 

[Daniel_Son]

For $5-6 million, sure, why not?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I’d rather spend the money and try to improve, rather than maintain status quo

How much is Rich Hill really going to cost? This year it was $5M. Did he do enough to warrant a significant increase? Who would they be prevented from signing if they spent $6M on Rich Hill next year?

 

[scottyno]

Not too long ago he said in an interview that he was interested in signing mid-season in 2023, so he probably wouldn't even cost 5-6 million. That might limit the pool of teams that he's interested in, or that might be interested in him, to contenders that need a back end starter. By mid-season 2023 the Sox could be contenders or not, and could need another starter or not.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

How much is Rich Hill really going to cost? This year it was $5M. Did he do enough to warrant a significant increase? Who would they be prevented from signing if they spent $6M on Rich Hill next year?

I would rather have that 5-6 million to use towards a better starter, or failing that, a bullpen arm or two

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

How much is Rich Hill really going to cost? This year it was $5M. Did he do enough to warrant a significant increase? Who would they be prevented from signing if they spent $6M on Rich Hill next year?

It’s a roster spot, though. The consensus seems to be to bring back Eovaldi, Wacha, and Hill. Add Sale and it really doesn’t leave room for any other starters. Teams that finish in last with lousy pitching usually don’t bring the same staff back. Of course, if the idea is that the injuries were the main driver and the team was just unlucky, maybe it’s not a bad gamble.

 

[effectivelywild]

Any chance we could convince him to be a "pitching coach" early in the season and if he wants to start pitching mid-season, maybe look at him then (only half joking)? Apparently he's been mentoring Bello and taught him how to throw a curveball, as detailed in this article in The Athletic.

From this piece:
"Hill said he spoke with Bello a few other times that weren’t caught on camera, and that he is among several veteran Red Sox who have been mentoring the young pitcher.

'I’ve gotten to have some really good conversations with Brayan about mentality and purpose for every day coming in here, work ethic, talking about mentality of when you go out there understanding the intensity and effort it takes with every pitch during the game,' Hill said."

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

It’s a roster spot, though. The consensus seems to be to bring back Eovaldi, Wacha, and Hill. Add Sale and it really doesn’t leave room for any other starters. Teams that finish in last with lousy pitching usually don’t bring the same staff back. Of course, if the idea is that the injuries were the main driver and the team was just unlucky, maybe it’s not a bad gamble.

That's 4. So they can add 1. And then you need guys for the inevitable injuries.

 

[scottyno]

That's 4. So they can add 1. And then you need guys for the inevitable injuries.

They have at least 3-4 young guys who would likely outpitch a 43 year old Hill if they put them in the rotation. If they bring back both Eovaldi and Wacha starting the season with Hill would make no sense barring some sort of trade that sends out several of their young arms for a vet position player.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

They have at least 3-4 young guys who would likely outpitch a 43 year old Hill if they put them in the rotation. If they bring back both Eovaldi and Wacha starting the season with Hill would make no sense barring some sort of trade that sends out several of their young arms for a vet position player.

Who are those guys?

But would the $6M be better spent on a BP arm than Hill and just add Whitlock to the rotation?

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

Honestly I would rather have Bello, Crawford, Winckowski than Hill. We also have to assume they’re going to try and get Whitlock in the rotation as well.

People also seem to be forgetting Pivetta in these forecasts

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Honestly I would rather have Bello, Crawford, Winckowski than Hill. We also have to assume they’re going to try and get Whitlock in the rotation as well

I honestly feel like this is a Whitlock in rotation/$8M available for BP vs Hill in rotation/Whitlock in BP.
I think Bello is starting there in ‘23. For sure.
Crawford and/or Winckowski are depth- Crawford possibly a BP arm

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

I honestly feel like this is a Whitlock in rotation/$8M available for BP vs Hill in rotation/Whitlock in BP.
I think Bello is starting there in ‘23. For sure.
Crawford and/or Winckowski are depth- Crawford possibly a BP arm

So going with that:
Sale (?)
Wacha
Eovaldi
Bello
Hill
Pivetta
Whitlock
Crawford
Winckowski

This feels like a rotation that needs one more stud. Between injuries and performance uncertainties, I feel like maybe the Hill spot is where you would go for broke and Target a top of the rotation starter

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

They have at least 3-4 young guys who would likely outpitch a 43 year old Hill if they put them in the rotation. If they bring back both Eovaldi and Wacha starting the season with Hill would make no sense barring some sort of trade that sends out several of their young arms for a vet position player.

I hope so! And they will be there if someone gets hurt, and maybe they can help in the bullpen

 

[scottyno]

Who are those guys?

But would the $6M be better spent on a BP arm than Hill and just add Whitlock to the rotation?

Bello for sure. Whitlock and or Houck if they decided to put either of them in the rotation. Possibly Crawford or Winck, though I think they'd be a toss up vs Hill, but I think even those 2 would be close enough that it would make more sense to go with one of them plus 6m to spend elsewhere vs spending 6m on Hill.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

That's 4. So they can add 1. And then you need guys for the inevitable injuries.

What about Pivetta and Bello? (And Whitlock and Houck, Crawford, maybe Paxton?) I’ve never seen so many people eager to run it back with a last place squad.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

What about Pivetta and Bello? (And Whitlock and Houck, Crawford, maybe Paxton?) I’ve never seen so many people eager to run it back with a last place squad.

For $6 mill, I’ll take Hill as insurance

 

[WheresDewey]

You don't start with the plan to take Hill, but if they're short a pitcher come spring training, you could do a lot worse for a lot more money.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

You don't start with the plan to take Hill, but if they're short a pitcher come spring training, you could do a lot worse for a lot more money.

I disagree. I would rather not spend the money on Hill at any point and give an opportunity to one of the “Kids”

 

[WheresDewey]

I don't think we exactly disagree. I said, "if they're short a pitcher." If the young guys are healthy and ready, they're not short a pitcher.

 

[chawson]

I'm even more in the 'Trade Pivetta' camp than I was last week.

Hill has been worth 1.8 fWAR in 25 starts, which is roughly as valuable as Michael Wacha, Frankie Montas, Robbie Ray, Luis Garcia, Joe Ryan, Charlie Morton and Nick Pivetta. His 2022 FIP is 3.82, which is better than the league average FIP (3.98) and the average among starters (4.05). He has also been better in the second half, like he has been every season since revamping his career as a full-time starter in 2016.

If he's looking for the same contract, that's 2 percent of the payroll. I don't think we should look that gift horse in the mouth.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

He’s not eligible for free agency until 2025, though. I wouldn’t extend him, I’d just take the 2 years of team control left.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'm even more in the 'Trade Pivetta' camp than I was last week.

Hill has been worth 1.8 fWAR in 25 starts, which is roughly as valuable as Michael Wacha, Frankie Montas, Robbie Ray, Luis Garcia, Joe Ryan, Charlie Morton and Nick Pivetta. His 2022 FIP is 3.82, which is better than the league average FIP (3.98) and the average among starters (4.05). He has also been better in the second half, like he has been every season since revamping his career as a full-time starter in 2016.

If he's looking for the same contract, that's 2 percent of the payroll. I don't think we should look that gift horse in the mouth.

The Sox need a guy who has proven to be able to stay healthy with at least a league average production... that's Pivetta. I understand that his peripherals and ERA and etc...etc.... seem replaceable, but the ability to go out and start every 5th game and throw a quality start is way undervalued. Especially on a team that could have Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha, Houck, Whitlock and Hill and then Bello in the rotation. Every single one of the first 6 have spent time on the DL and Bello is still too green to be counted on to anchor a rotation. Whatever you feel about Pivetta's skills on the mound, he provides tremendous value. I don't think you can count on Crawford, Mata or Winck to be able to do what Pivetta should be able to do over a full season.

 

[Ganthem]

What about Pivetta and Bello? (And Whitlock and Houck, Crawford, maybe Paxton?) I’ve never seen so many people eager to run it back with a last place squad.

This last place squad would be in a much better position if it wasn't for injuries. At around six million Hill is a good option to add depth to the rotation. If everybody is healthy at the end of spring training he can go into the bullpen and move into the rotation as needed.

 

[walt in maryland]

So going with that:
Sale (?)
Wacha
Eovaldi
Bello
Hill
Pivetta
Whitlock
Crawford
Winckowski

This feels like a rotation that needs one more stud. Between injuries and performance uncertainties, I feel like maybe the Hill spot is where you would go for broke and Target a top of the rotation starter

Agree completely. I think they should approach Milwaukee about a trade for Woodruff or even (dreaming) Burnes. Brewers aren't going to be able to afford both going forward.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm even more in the 'Trade Pivetta' camp than I was last week.

Hill has been worth 1.8 fWAR in 25 starts, which is roughly as valuable as Michael Wacha, Frankie Montas, Robbie Ray, Luis Garcia, Joe Ryan, Charlie Morton and Nick Pivetta. His 2022 FIP is 3.82, which is better than the league average FIP (3.98) and the average among starters (4.05). He has also been better in the second half, like he has been every season since revamping his career as a full-time starter in 2016.

If he's looking for the same contract, that's 2 percent of the payroll. I don't think we should look that gift horse in the mouth.

I'm not against re-signing Hill for depth. I wouldn't count on him to make 25 starts or be better than league average though, but for only one big reason. He'll be 43 freaking years old. At some point, he's just not going to be able to do it any more. But signed to a Tim Wakefield-like contract (AAV, not the perpetual option thing), I'm fine with him being a Tim Wakefield type contributor: in the rotation only when someone's hurt (ideally 10-15 starts, probably closer to 20), otherwise in the pen as the long man. If age does catch up to him, it's not a big hit to cut bait.

 

[OCD SS]

I don't think we exactly disagree. I said, "if they're short a pitcher." If the young guys are healthy and ready, they're not short a pitcher.

If you can never have enough pitching, then you're always short a pitcher.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Give him a one-year deal with a club option and like a $500K buyout. If he pitches well enough to pick up the option, everybody wins. If not, it's chump change to let him walk. If next season looks like another bust and he's pitching well, you can trade him at the deadline and let the other team worry about the option.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I get that you can never have too much pitching, but you only have so many roster spots, and with the “dreaded 40-man roster crunch” you can’t really bring back Eovaldi, Hill, Wacha, and add the guys you want to add to the 40-man, can you?