Roy Halladay retires
- Thread starter jsinger121
- Start date
I'm shocked, even though I probably shouldn't be. After 2011 he still seemed to me like as good a bet as any to sneak into HOF discussion with 4-5 more solid years. Sad to see him go, truly one of the nastiest guys of his generation. He also is one half of one of my favorite baseball pictures of recent memory:
Never saw that one, thanks. Caption it?jimc said:I'm shocked, even though I probably shouldn't be. After 2011 he still seemed to me like as good a bet as any to sneak into HOF discussion with 4-5 more solid years. Sad to see him go, truly one of the nastiest guys of his generation. He also is one half of one of my favorite baseball pictures of recent memory:
"Take off that wig and I'll give you my autograph, young fella".
I wonder what the AAV is on the Toronto offer in this market.TomRicardo said:
Steamer has him projected at a 3.89 ERA for next season, which is right around where his FIP was in 2012. He lost at least a couple of MPH off his fastball in 2013, though, and I'm presuming those aren't coming back any time soon. Makes me think there's a granularity issue with some of these early 2014 projections. Having said that, I do sort of wonder what the best projected performance has been for someone who ended up retiring of their own volition.
That seems like a shockingly optimistic projection, since it looked like he was throwing batting practice out there last year.
ERA
2011 - 2.35
2012 - 4.49
2013 - 6.82
Sometimes when the end comes for a mid-30's pitcher who has thrown a ton of innings, it comes hard and fast. Not surprised one bit, but sad to see such a good pitcher go....
ERA
2011 - 2.35
2012 - 4.49
2013 - 6.82
Sometimes when the end comes for a mid-30's pitcher who has thrown a ton of innings, it comes hard and fast. Not surprised one bit, but sad to see such a good pitcher go....
I knew he was getting hit hard, and those numbers make this less surprising....but still...fascinating how quickly and how hard he fell off that cliff.
At the conclusion of the Home Run Chase of 1998, watching the last game for that, there were regular updates of some 21-year-old kid trying to throw a no hitter in his 2nd career start.
2 outs away, and a Bobby Higginson home run ended that.
But, it was clear that something very special was coming.
Even from the perspective of having to compete against him for a number of years, Halladay was really something special to watch.
Definitely thought he could have had a couple more years in him.
2 outs away, and a Bobby Higginson home run ended that.
But, it was clear that something very special was coming.
Even from the perspective of having to compete against him for a number of years, Halladay was really something special to watch.
Definitely thought he could have had a couple more years in him.
It is kind of nice to see Halladay walk-away. Yeah, he may have a couple of okay years left in him if he gave it a shot, but he probably felt that he could never be the pitcher that he once was, and sometimes it really is better to burn out than to fade away.
His shoulder was a complete mess when they opened him up. The projections couldn't have taken that into account, nor should they be expected to. My guess is he looked at the amount of rehab required, the performance he could expect if it succeeded, and decided it wasn't worth the trouble.
What's sometimes forgotten is how he came back from getting lit up in 2000. His ERA was over 10.00 in 60+ IP.
What's sometimes forgotten is how he came back from getting lit up in 2000. His ERA was over 10.00 in 60+ IP.
Leaving while he's relatively still close to the top. Watched the press conference this morning. Had the opportunity to work with him and Chris Carpenter both couple years ago for an event with Nike. Two of the nicest down to earth guys you could ever want to hang with. Both big family guys with tons of money. Must be nice to retire in your 30's like that instead of chasing another paycheck or another inning or another AB like a lot of guys.
I suspect pitcher longevity is going to be way down across the board in the post steroid era.
See, this is why we need more steroids in baseball.
See, this is why we need more steroids in baseball.
Some of those games he pitched against the 2003-2005 Red Sox siege cannons offense were terrific confrontations. They got him a few times but he held an epic offense in check a bunch of times, too. He ruined a SoSH game once, too.
Rough Carrigan said:
Well, to be fair, that SoSH game lasted about an hour and 15 minutes because he was so damn efficient, so that left more time for, er, enjoying the evening afterwards.
DLew On Roids said:
Yeah, got sent back down to the minors for a while too.
Took him a couple of years to really get going on a consistant basis, but, once he did, he was pretty special.
Knowing our luck that one day on the roster will be a start against Boston, during which he'll no hit them for 8 innings.
One of the best pitchers I've seen and it's a shame his career had to be cut short due to injury. I won't miss seeing him at Fenway though.
One of the best pitchers I've seen and it's a shame his career had to be cut short due to injury. I won't miss seeing him at Fenway though.
Does Halladay have a Hall of Fame case?
- 200+ wins and a very high .659 win percentage
- Over 2,100 strikeouts
- 131 career ERA+ that is only bested by Kershaw and Johan Santana among active pitchers.
- His 2 Cy Youngs place him in elite company as one of just 17 to win multiple CYAs. He also had 7 top-5 finishes.
- For the more old school voters, he was a monster in this era when it came to complete games and eating innings.
- On his career, he amassed 65.6 bWAR/67.6 fWAR.
- Halladay had minimal postseason experience/winning, though he did have a playoff no hitter.
- Speaking of, since he never won a championship, the perfect game and no hitter may be his signature moments. He's the only player to ever throw a regular season and posseason no hitter. Halladay is one of 28 to have multiple career no hitters, one of just 23 with a perfect game, and one of two with a playoff no hitter.
How does a 36 year old retiring prove your thesis? Was pitcher longetivty up during it?PrometheusWakefield said:
However, I don't think offense being down will be a bad thing for pitcher longevity.
Roy Halladay -- 2749 IP, 3.38 ERA, 131 ERA+, 203 wins
Tim Hudson -- 2814 IP, 3.44 ERA, 124 ERA+, 205 wins
Mike Mussina (through 2003) -- 2669 IP, 3.53 ERA, 129 ERA+, 199 wins
Mike Mussina (career) -- 3563 IP, 3.68 ERA, 123 ERA+, 270 wins
The difference between the three, and the reason why Mussina is on the HOF bubble (and will likely get in, imo), is because Mussina hung on for five league-average seasons (894 IP, 4.14 ERA, 107 ERA+) after he was no longer even arguably a great pitcher.
Longevity has value, but HOF voters give it too much weight.
Tim Hudson -- 2814 IP, 3.44 ERA, 124 ERA+, 205 wins
Mike Mussina (through 2003) -- 2669 IP, 3.53 ERA, 129 ERA+, 199 wins
Mike Mussina (career) -- 3563 IP, 3.68 ERA, 123 ERA+, 270 wins
The difference between the three, and the reason why Mussina is on the HOF bubble (and will likely get in, imo), is because Mussina hung on for five league-average seasons (894 IP, 4.14 ERA, 107 ERA+) after he was no longer even arguably a great pitcher.
Longevity has value, but HOF voters give it too much weight.
maufman said:
Halladay has the edge over Mussina in a lot of categories that voters look at:
Halladay has 8 AS appearances, Mussina has 5.
Halladay has 2 CYs, Mussina has 0.
Halladay finished in the top 3 in CY voting 5 times, Mussina only finished in the top 3 once.
Halladay won 20 games 3 times, Mussina just once.
Halladay threw 2 no-hitters, Mussina had none.
One place Mussina really should have an edge is in postseason play (Halladay pitched in October in just 2 seasons, while Mussina was in the playoffs 9 years), but fair or not, Mussina is tainted by the Yankees relative failures in the postseason from 2001-2007.
None of that shows that Halladay is better than Mussina, but longevity hurting his career averages isn't the only reason why Halladay might get more HOF buzz than Mussina.
maufman said:
Halladay's peak was higher than either of those guys though (especially Hudson, though with Mussina it's closer/close).
- Hudson finished never won a Cy Young and finished top-5 just three times. Hudson never led the league in WAR for pitchers.
- Mussina also never won a Cy Young (though he may have been deserving in '01) and finished top-5 six times. Mussina led the league in WAR for pitchers once.
- Halladay won 2 Cy Young Awards and finished top-5 seven times. Halladay led the league in WAR for pitchers four times.
- Halladay had nine seasons (7 full, 2 partial) at an ERA+ of 143 of better. Mussina had four and Hudson just two of them.
Mussina's top-5 seasons by ERA+: 164, 157, 145, 143, 139** (** - 87.2 IP that season)
Halladay's top-5 seasons by ERA+ 167, 163, 159, 157, 152 (and that excludes and 186 ERA+ in 141.2 IP during 2005)
Also, I think it's fair to say that Halladay was the best pitcher in baseball for the post-millennium decade. If you use 2000-2009 as Fangraphs suggests for "00's" then Randy Johnson edges Halladay by 2.6 fWAR. However, it's so heavily front loaded for Johnson, who was clearly on a major decline by 2003. If you change the parameters to even just 2000-2010 or 2001-2010, Halladay is the clear leader in WAR. Yes, it helps that the dominance of guys like Pedro and RJ were split between two decades and Halladay didn't have to share the spotlight with them. But, was there ever a span of ~10 years in baseball where Mussina or Hudson were the best pitcher in baseball? Has there ever been a player who was the best pitcher for a 10 year period and he isn't in the Hall of Fame?
Edit: Euclis20 beat me to the punch on some of this.
Never.mt8thsw9th said:
He got 3rd in the A.L. cy young award twice. And . . in the prime of his career, not the last couple years but before that, he had FIVE seasons where he had an ERA+ under 100; He had five seasons in the prime of his career in which you could say quite reasonably that he was a below average pitcher.
Yup, don't confuse most wins with best pitcher.
Jack Morris' best ten-year rWAR stretch (1979-1988): 39.4
Dave Stieb over the same period: 46.6. (and Stieb had even better totals over the 1980-89 and 1981-1990 periods.)[\tangent]
My Halladay-Sox memory that sticks out is him getting a really generous called third strike on a full count with the bases loaded against Bellhorn.
That said, he is definitely HoF worthy.
Jack Morris' best ten-year rWAR stretch (1979-1988): 39.4
Dave Stieb over the same period: 46.6. (and Stieb had even better totals over the 1980-89 and 1981-1990 periods.)[\tangent]
My Halladay-Sox memory that sticks out is him getting a really generous called third strike on a full count with the bases loaded against Bellhorn.
That said, he is definitely HoF worthy.
terrisus said:
Care to elaborate?
Isn't the big argument for Jack Morris that he was a winner, got rings, and accumulated wins? That's not Halladay at all. Halladay won 2 Cy Youngs and led the league in pitching WAR four times. He was the best pitcher in baseball for a decade.
It took Morris 18 seasons and 3,824 IP to accumulate 43.8 fWAR. From 2005-2011, in just 7 seasons and 1,556.1 IP, Halladay racked up 44.5 fWAR. And that span doesn't even include Halladay's first Cy Young nor his awesome 2002. Halladay had 50% more fWAR than Morris over his career, and Doc did it in fewer seasons and innings.
The amazing thing is that Halladay didn't get to Philadelphia until the end of his career (weird to say now) and I don't think he was seen as "the best pitcher in baseball" until then. 20 years from now people might be calling him the most underrated pitcher ever.
ForceAtHome said:
I just meant that the people in favor of Morris, aside from the postseason stuff, tend to mention how he had "the most wins in the 1980s!" despite how arbitrary that grouping is. And that particular post seemed similar in terms of looking at Halladay in the 2000s - another arbitrary grouping of years.
terrisus said:
Put another way, from Halladay's rookie season in 1999 until his final season in 2013 (15 years), nobody in baseball had more pitching WAR than Roy Halladay. Are the years arbitrary in that they just happen to be the years of Halladay's career? Sure. Considering other pitchers in contention weren't active for that entire span (e.g., Randy Johnson) it may not be the perfect way to look at it. But, over the course of time when Halladay pitched, no one provided more value on the mound according to WAR. I don't view that as a Morris argument, but we may simply not see eye to eye on this.
Edit: To note, I don't think Morris belongs in the HoF. Also, doesn't the article you posted fall in support of my Halladay argument?
To be clear - I'm not arguing at all against Halladay, and think he's a great pitcher.
It was just the "in the decade of the 2000s" thing, which bore such a resemblance to many of the Morris arguments (which, yeah, the article was moving away from as opposed to toward, was just a random example of something discussing the issue).
It was just the "in the decade of the 2000s" thing, which bore such a resemblance to many of the Morris arguments (which, yeah, the article was moving away from as opposed to toward, was just a random example of something discussing the issue).
My favorite Halladay game is the Lester Breakout. It was a 4/29/2008 eight-inning one-hitter, which Halladay lost in the 9th on a walk-off with two out, after Ortiz walked, Manny singled, and Youkilis drove Papi home.
Papelbon won the game, but the no-hitter of the Royals three starts later was just confirmation of Lester's 16-6 season. If Mike Lowell's hip hadn't ground down, 2008 would have been another crown.
Yea, Halladay was pretty good in that game too.
Papelbon won the game, but the no-hitter of the Royals three starts later was just confirmation of Lester's 16-6 season. If Mike Lowell's hip hadn't ground down, 2008 would have been another crown.
Yea, Halladay was pretty good in that game too.